Episode 177 - Marks on the Markets: A Midyear Macro Look with Brandon Pizzurro
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In this episode of the Faith Driven Investor podcast, Richard Cunningham and John Coleman interview Brandon Pizzurro, Chief Investment Officer at Guidestone, to discuss the state of the US markets.
They cover topics such as the performance of the S&P 500, the dominance of big tech companies, the potential for a small cap rotation, the impact of artificial intelligence on the market, and the possibility of rate cuts and inflation.
The conversation also provides insights into the current trends and dynamics in the US markets and discusses the possibility of a soft landing for the economy, with declining rates and inflation reaching a more normalized level.
All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization.
Episode Transcript
Transcription is done by an AI software. While technology is an incredible tool to automate this process, there will be misspellings and typos that might accompany it. Please keep that in mind as you work through it.
Richard Cunningham: Welcome back, everyone, to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor podcast here. For this end of July 2024 Marks on the Markets edition and John Coleman. I'm particularly excited about today because our last few marks on the markets episodes hasn't been a good kind of macro. Look at US markets, US equities, we've gone super deep with Tim McCreadie on the FDI space. Then we had Andrew Furman on talking about tech investing in Africa, which was fascinating. So I would highly encourage you to go back and check out those episodes. But we've got the perfect guest on today to kind of zoom is back out here in the end of July and look at all things kind of US markets. Brandon Pizarro, chief investment officer, president at guide Stone Capital Management, coming to us from Dallas, Texas. Gentlemen, welcome in to the FDI podcast studio.
Brandon Pizzurro: Hey. Good morning. Thanks for having me.
John Coleman: Yeah, I'm super excited for today. I mean, for listeners who aren't familiar Guidestones, it's one of the most important faith based institutions. That's an allocator in the industry representing a number of Christian organizations, particularly Baptist organizations. But I know you've moved beyond that, Brandon, and serve a broad array of folks. And Brandon in particular is someone I've gotten in over the last few years and just have a remarkable amount of respect for the insight that he brings to public markets. So I think it should be a fun discussion today.
Brandon Pizzurro: Thanks, John. I'm excited. Looking forward to talking to markets.
Richard Cunningham: Yeah, absolutely. And so, Brandon, I think it's 2017. You joined guide Stone and you guys are looking after now just south of 20 billion in AUM. And so just an incredible volume of assets to Stuart. And as John said, just a key leader in the Faith-Based investing space.
Brandon Pizzurro: I appreciate the compliment, Saro. We're doing good work here. And it wouldn't be without an army of people behind me. It's making it all run. So God's definitely blessed us with a great group of people to kind of coalesce around some of these things.
Richard Cunningham: Awesome. Well, gents, it's July 23rd as we record this, and there have been plenty of headlines as of late. There was a failed assassination attempt on a former president. We've got the sitting president who has said, hey, I'm not going to run in this upcoming election campaign. Markets have been just on an unbelievable run. So where do we want to start? We start in the public markets and look at the S&P 500 and everything that's going on there. And just kind of generally.
Brandon Pizzurro: Sir, certainly a good place to start, kind of the epicenter of what your average investor or even institutional investors would think about. When you say markets your mind goes towards S&P. So it's certainly a good place to start.
Richard Cunningham: Absolutely. Let's do well Brandon John, what do we seen? I mean it just feels like The Magnificent Seven have been on a terror of all terrors. Last week it started to look like things might slow down a little bit. Wednesday and Thursday showed some turbulent markets, maybe some kind of reallocation to non-tech non growth stocks. But here we are kicking off this week with just a rebound of Nvidia in particular. Markets are way up. Some people are saying well they're so far concentrated into these kind of particular top 10% holdings if you will the S&P 500. What are you guys seeing Brandon.
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah I mean big tech just can't be stopped is probably the biggest thing to say at the front end there. The fact that we've had such a proliferation of these top ten in these top five and Mac seven and they've they've evolved, right. What we call them the Fang, the Mag seven, you know, all of those have really just done a fantastic job of just propelling markets forward. The big differentiation that I think a lot of people are looking at is just outside of those Mag seven. What's the rest of those roughly 493 names doing so from an equal weight perspective, if, say, Nvidia was equally weighted with everything else in the S&P 500, you know, just watching that gap between those two oscillate, it's really exploded out. One of the things I think's important is what's propelling that. So it's different than like in 99 where a lot of that was based on eyeballs and clicks and pets.com. Right. Kind of the poster child for one of those silly names that just got this huge valuation. The earnings growth, these names do have earnings growth. They're not running for no reason. In particular the differentiation though if you look back in 23 earnings growth for those big, you know kind of mag seven names around 57% where the rest of the S&P 500 median was around 4%. Just huge gap out 2024. We're expecting somewhere around 37% for Mag seven and about five for the median. But as you get into 25 and 26 that collapse, it's dramatically looking out to 26, which I know for prognosticators seems like an eternity from now. You're really only looking at about a 14% earnings growth on those top seven and around a nine on the median. That's median, meaning that there's plenty of names that could well outperform that Mag seven grouping. So the exceptionalism that you've seen in that large growth space is starting to narrow that violent reversal. Well we saw markets with the small caps was tremendous last week. And I'll pause there. But there's certainly a lot to be said about the small cap rotation we can get into.
John Coleman: Yeah, I think this is a great place to camp out because as Brandon highlighted, you know, one of the stats I saw recently was that right now or effectively probably last week before this reversion that we saw, which Brandon highlighted the gap between the Russell 3000 and the Russell 3000 equal weight, which basically eliminates the cap weighted nature of the Magnificent Seven in some of the larger stocks in the, Russell was the highest it had been since March 2000, which was immediately preceding the.com. Right. And so there's been this just incredible run by Nvidia in particular. I mean, I can't remember a time when a single stock dominated the returns of the entire stock market in the way that Nvidia has, at least in my professional career. And the Magnificent Seven. More broadly, when you start to talk about Microsoft, alphabet, etc., have led this like super large cap run, especially over the last couple of years. We think that that is not quite like the.com bubble, as Brandon highlighted, the fundamental business models of the Magnificent Seven, or substantively better than a lot of the securities that collapse in the.com bubble, for example. So Nvidia has a real business. They're a good company from what I can tell. And there are fundamentals that really support their growth and their profitability. The same is obviously true of Microsoft, of alphabet, of meta, of Apple, of some of these big names that have been running. We do, however, think that we might be reaching a point at which their run relative to the rest of the market, the gap between their valuations and the rest of the market, their appreciation of the rest of the market, is such that will likely see a reversion. So if you look, for example, just that the S&P 500 index as of like 630 of this year, the S&P 500 index, which is cap weighted, was about a 22 times price to earnings. Right. And if you look at that Mac seven, they're often up in the 30s or 40s for some of those stocks. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which actually spreads among those 500 largest securities. The appreciation was only 16.9 times. Right. So there's this massive gap in the price to earnings. It's larger than it has been historically. And I think that's been a part recently, which we've been putting some research into this almost decade long run or a little more than decade long run in large caps generally. So if you look, for example, at 1999 to 2013 or end of year 99, so 2000 to 2014, effectively small cap and mid-cap dramatically outperform large cap over that period of time. Right. So if you look at the Russell Mid-Cap index, it was up 217% over that time, whereas the Russell 1000 was up 74%, the S&P 500 was up 64%. Massive differential. If you look 2014 through present through June of this year, large cap indexes like the S&P 500 was up 259% during that time, whereas the Russell Mid-Cap is only up 160%. So we've been through this decade now. So there was this decade where small and mid-cap dramatically outperformed large cap by 2 to 3 times. Now, we've been in this area where the large cap stocks led by the Magnificent Seven and a few other technology stocks have dramatically outperformed small and mid-cap for a decade. And so the question we're asking ourselves is, does that continue? Or do we get back to historical norms where if you look over the last 25 years, comprehensively small and mid-cap have performed better than large cap, even blended over that period of time. Do we get to a place where there's a reversion to the mean, not where those stocks collapse, as in the dotcom bubble? Because I think they're fundamental business models, which Brandon highlighted are better than many of the stocks we saw collapse at that time. But where we see at least some gravitational pull of that other 95% of stocks that we're paying attention to with the top performing technology stocks. And that reversion itself would actually represent a dramatic catch up from the rest of the market, particularly if interest rates do indeed begin to decline later this year.
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah, that small cap rotation is real. One of the things that I gravitated towards when we're doing some back of the envelope, what just happened, right last week with Russell, 2000 shooting up, reached an all time low versus the Nasdaq back in July. So that disparity that's going back to 1979, by the way, that disparity it just really gapped out wide. But then when we saw that take off that was the fourth largest single day outperformance spread over the Nasdaq since 1980. What were those other time periods. The 87 low a global financial crisis low. The Covid.
Richard Cunningham: Low.
Brandon Pizzurro: And then last week. So we had those four key areas just going back decades where we saw that. And so it's almost like there's a lot of expectation built into small caps that they're just ready to go whether or not it's time for them to run truly. And we can talk about some, you know, headwinds and tailwinds relative to rate cuts that are potentially on the horizon. But small caps definitely peaked their head back out. We're in the spotlight. And we saw the second largest weekly inflow ever going back to data tracked back to 17 years. So people that were underweight small cap there might be that catch up trade. Right. People always tend to do it after the fact. But if institutional investors that are underway, retail investors that are underweight definitely got caught off sides.
John Coleman: One, I'd be interested, Brandon, in your reflections on like what has caused this disconnect because it does seem different than some of the other time periods that you mentioned, where obviously we can pinpoint big extreme events or big extreme periods of time. You know, as I think through it, there could be a number of dynamics at play. I love your reflections. You know, one is just. The way passive funds work today. There are so many people concentrated in the S&P 500, cap weighted, you know, a tilt towards the larger cap, which is kind of a structural thing in the industry. I think in a period of time where people had a lot of uncertainty about the economy and where interest rates were rising, I think there was more of a feel of safety in some of these big technology stocks, you know, that caused them to run. And then certainly over the last year, at least, this isn't part of the ten year trend. But maybe over the last year, this run about artificial intelligence. You know, maybe as the closest thing to the kind of.com dynamic where, you know, 5 or 6 years ago it was probably blockchain or, you know, something like that where anything just touching artificial intelligence has exploded. So I don't know what you attribute it to, but I'd be so curious that, you know, which the dynamics do you think are most important right now and like, which may in fact be fading, that could cause the broader index to catch up. Yeah.
Brandon Pizzurro: Great observations. I mean, I exuberance is very real and it's centered around Nvidia's earnings right. When they've released earnings the last two marches for those time periods you've seen those just be massive inflection points. Remember when SVB and some of these other kind of, you know, those banks started to collapse. It started to have some fragility to them, those kind of midcap banks. It really started to get people worried and a lot of angst over what was going to transpire in that banking sector. But Nvidia basically saved the day, right? Yes. The government came in and helped, you know, backstop and support these banks and tidy everything up. But really, markets completely oscillated and turned their attention over to, oh, Nvidia is doing well in this. I think it's going to be here and here to stay. So that has been the safety trade, so to speak. It's amazing that large cap tech has been kind of a defensive sector in a lot of ways. That's where people have gone. And to hide out you get treasuries and U.S. large cap growth. So that's definitely one area that's been kind of predominant in terms of the way that the trades worked out. But you're right. I mean, passive flows have been such that there's been this preaching of passive for such a long period of time in we're believers in active and passive. I mean, there's definitely a place for passive, but that's just where a lot of money's gone. And there's more passive than active money now out there in the retail space. And so those tend to be very large programmatic trading. When these big giant passive funds have to move, you're going to have a lot of momentum behind that. But camping back out on the I think in particular, I think it is astounding how much people have gravitated towards that. I think the easy money, so to speak, has been made in that I trade Nvidia's run and some knock on adjacent names have run as well, but you're going to have to start to get a little bit more discerning in what's AI adjacent that's going to continue to have legs. No doubt artificial intelligence is here to stay and will continue to change our lives for the rest of our lifetimes and beyond. But the fact that people are trying to pick the next Nvidia or the next, you know, where's the growth going to come from? You've seen a lot of people talk about the energy demand that's going to come from AI demand, and people are concerned about our infrastructure and our grid to support AI generation. So people are going to try to tease that out. But it's interesting how much that is really kind of neutralized. Any other concerns that have come up in markets? Inflation gets batted down, uncertainty, geopolitical or even domestic politics and heat warnings across the consumer, all of that fallen by the wayside. So that's going to have to be dealt with head on at some point once this AI continues to fade a little bit. But there are other things that should be concerning relative to how well we've kind of seen in masks. I think some of the underlying trends by just having these big names wrong. Yeah.
John Coleman: And I know Richard probably wants us to move on to the next topic, but I'll drop a couple of quick comments on the AI front, specifically Brandon, because I think you're spot on in any trend like this. Look, I personally believe that AI is a secular trend, artificial intelligence. I mean, anyone who's used ChatGPT, which is still a rudimentary version of artificial intelligence, knows this is going to transform the way in which we do business. Probably a lot like the internet did, right, where it is transformative technology. That said, I think we're starting to see some conservatism or caution arising at the pace at which this has been promoted. You know, Goldman Sachs, I think, recently came out to caution that the level of capital investment in artificial intelligence was probably unsustainable, given the near-term revenue bump of those. I was listening to the All In podcast a couple of weeks ago, and they were focused on the same trend. Just how much more can an even an alphabet or a Microsoft invest in this topic, and how much revenue would needed to be demonstrated to continue the investment at that level, which is obviously where all the revenue is coming from for Nvidia. The second is right now there are a couple of competitors that are just dominating like Nvidia competition. Never sit still. The fact that Intel is trading at a small fraction of the valuation, for example, of Nvidia. But, you know, they're inevitably working on these things. There will be competitors who arise who kind of spread. I think some of the impact of this. And then the third, which I always tell people, having worked in big companies before, is there are always micro factors that we tend to underestimate within very successful companies. It make it incredibly difficult to perform over the long run. So I'll just do one. This survey I found on Twitter, so I can't vouch for its veracity, but it was conducted by survey firm of 3154 Nvidia employees, and they asked what their net worth. Well, I saw that. Yeah, right. So think about the run. 36.6% of those surveyed, 1154 of that, 3154 said their net worth is now greater than $20 million, 7.8% rated between 10 and $20 million. Only 24% of those surveyed had a net worth under $1 million. And if you think about what I mean, it's been on such a run that very mid-level employees in Nvidia are now fabulously wealthy. The best engineers are wealthy, probably beyond their wildest imaginations. And that puts pressure on a company, right? Because some people choose to retire, some people choose to then go launch their own things. And so I think there are just a lot of reasons to kind of think through very carefully the allocations amongst these artificial intelligence players. Now, I think it's a secular trend, but like anything like that, we have to approach it with a real dedication to try and develop insights on those particular firms and on how much those trends can continue to run.
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah, time to take a breather and reassess.
Richard Cunningham: Hmhm man, that's fun to hear you guys in pack AI, we're moving down the line and let's talk inflation and what appears to be possible rate cuts coming maybe September undetermined. The Fed Fund futures certainly believes that we're going to get at least one, maybe two. That Jerome Powell is going to finally make the move. CPI for June was at three when it was expected to come in at 3.1. So we're seeing some positive news now. I think that needs to be said in light of if we back up and look at the end of March 2024 versus just five years ago, March 2019, the CPI has rose 23%. So that kind of gives you kind of the staggering sobriety around just how large inflation is. Can we get lost in kind of these numbers of like is it going to get down to two. Is it three whereas the CPI can end up. But what are we thinking about rate cuts, the overall macro effect. They could potentially have the kind of stickiness and the persistence of inflation and where we are today guys.
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah I mean great question to your point. The September rate cuts priced in around 94% where futures are pricing at this morning. So it's interesting to see that the market has coalesced around this idea that we're going to get this rate cut right in September. Now, we do have a fed meeting that people tend to be overlooking right. Next week. We're in that blackout period where you're not seeing a whole lot of fed officials going on the offensive in their media blitz, which, by the way, is just kind of more of a recent phenomenon. Right? It wasn't that long ago that the fed was completely mum until you got the fed meeting, and that's where you got your kind of 1 or 2 day insight. And then they were quiet again for multiple months now we have fed governors and people adjacent to the fed and voting members and voting members that are giving their viewpoints on all of the media stations and doing talks, closed door talks, you know, public talks. So anyway, it's interesting to see just how much they talk these days. So it gives markets more volatility I think because they're hanging on every single word. All these sell side shops put out pieces highlighting what was said. They have eye back to eye point right. They have AI that's going through and interpreting what they said whether it's bullish or bearish. So it's been in the driver's seat right. The fed is the driver in all of this. So it looks like we're going to get our cut. And that's dramatically changed since the beginning of the year when we expected all these rate cuts. It's trickled down. I mean you saw people that were getting, you know, laughed out of the market, so to speak, by saying we're only going to get 2 to 3 this year perhaps, or even none. Well, that's a real possibility. Now, the 2 to 3 is kind of base case and none, you know, possibly. Right. There's a world where that does become a thing. It's not impossible. But that's really the zeitgeist. What the Fed's doing, whether they're doing it or not doing it, that's all anyone can speak to. And certainly it's been a big driver from a correlation perspective to markets. We do get quite a few data points this week for fed members to ingest before that announcement next week. And remember, they can change their mind right up until like just a mere 12 hours or so before that number's released. So there's a real opportunity for them to ingest PMI. This week. We get their favorite inflation gauge on Friday. We're getting some consumer data. We're getting housing data. So they're getting a slew of data on this blackout period before they speak next week. And so anything can come out of that.
John Coleman: Yeah. And I think, you know, an important corollary to that, what Brandon is talking about, I do think expectations are that at the very least, the rate increases are over unless there's some dramatic change in the underlying signals and that people are, as you said, Richard, pricing in a potential rate cut before the end of the year, maybe in September. As Brandon said, a lot will depend on some of the feedback they're getting from the numbers next week. But what we are seeing are the types of signals that you would expect to trend in that direction, right? So employment is softening a bit. I think long term employment was up a bit in June over that same time last year by about 400,000 on long term unemployed. So employment softening a bit. CPI is decreasing but other measures are decreasing too. So the Goldman Sachs core inflation number for example, just dropped below 2%. And there are a lot of debates about what the right inflation measure is. And you know we don't want to get into those. But it does seem that the inflationary trends are backing down now and then. Inflation is declining incrementally and with softness in employment with a little bit of risk in the underlying economy. It does seem like the type of environment where you could begin to see rate cuts. I think what is challenging for everyone to consider right now is just there is so much unpredictability and political situation in the United States right now. I still think there are so many opportunities for exhaustion of shocks in environments like this, whether you know that the international conflicts or whether it be unexpected shipping challenges. That's the stuff we've seen over the last couple of years. So you always want to approach this prediction about rates coming down very cautiously, I think, because there are so many variables at play. But I do think we're finally seeing after a couple of years here, an environment where we could start to see rates begin to decline, where we could start to see inflation get to a much more normalized place. And frankly, it looks like we might be heading for a soft landing. Right. Which we all kind of hoped for but thought was unlikely. You know, employment is dropping a little bit or unemployment is rising a little bit, but we really haven't hit any sort of dramatic recession or any dramatic increase in unemployment. And so my net net right now is it feels like I was critical of how they handled the initial inflationary environment. I think the fed has actually done a pretty good job over the last 18 months or so of trying to navigate us to a soft landing. And I mean, my hope is that's where we end up, which would be about the best case we could have predicted two years ago.
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah, I agree, John. I mean, it's interesting that at the beginning of the year, if you said soft landing and if you did, they stuck their neck out there, that was definitely not part of everyone's calculus. That soft landing could come to fruition. Now again, that's kind of turned into a base case of you're right. The Fed's generally engineered a pretty good what appears to be soft landing. Thus far things have moderated. Nothing's spun out of control. Markets have continued to be healthy. The economy continues to be pretty healthy. Consumers have been healthier than anyone could have possibly predicted. Right. The expectations that their excess savings were going to run out far before where we stand today have been, you know, expected for about a year now. But to your point on jobs in particular, that jobs workers gap is back to about February 2020 levels, if we saw some further softening in labor demand, that might actually hit, you know, real jobs right now. What that just means is we're having, you know, a lot of these job openings that are starting to close, people are pulling those back. But as that labor market softens and we kind of start to cool down a bit further from there, you know, and that's not a linear process by the way either. Right. That non-farm payroll, if you look at where the street is versus actual, there continues to be a pretty big disconnect where the street expects it to be versus where those have come in the last three and four months. So because of that, it's harder for people to gauge where this market is heading and whether or not we can really kind of plant the flag on saying soft landings occurred. But thus far, things have simmer down in a pretty orderly fashion, and that's what you're looking for. We don't want to see total destruction, but we do need to see a little bit of this come off the boil. There is going to be pain on the margins, right? Nothing's ever painless as you're transitioning an economy. But thus far, so far, so good. Really.
Richard Cunningham: That's encouraging to hear you guys. And I want to, you know, re-emphasize that on the Faith You're an investor podcast. We are people of deep optimism regardless of what is going on, always, especially from an eternal perspective. But I do want to play devil's advocate just for a second and talk about corporate bankruptcies being at an all time high this last month, government spending, you know, just as a percentage of U.S. GDP is getting to be alarming. So there are some contrary signals to kind of this idea of soft landing inflation coming down. We're going to finally get that rate cut. The employment market kind of finding its right balance coming in at 4.1. You know, the highest in a couple of years. What is the other side of not getting that soft landing possibly look like. What could be kind of you know, maybe something internationally geopolitically shocks markets, John, is to kind of what you were talking about. Political headlines get more and more kind of unsettling, if you will play the other side out, just kind of real briefly before we move on. Yeah.
Brandon Pizzurro: The other side of the coin absolutely exists. I mean, we've only had a 5% drawdown this year, and it hasn't been since 2021 that we've had such a tepid drawdown in markets. And that's obviously a full annualized basis for 21. But that's far in 24. A 5% drawdown is pretty minor. We could absolutely benefit from having some of the heat come off further. From a market perspective, it would be healthy, in fact, to have the markets draw down a bit, reset themselves. We opened this discussion with talking about just how far and how fast things have gone. Oscillating back, reverting back a bit would certainly be healthy. There's a lot of things that could be cracks in the facade, and we talked about the consumer. The consumer, I believe at this point finally is starting to get exhausted. They're fed up with the inflationary environment and rather. Than just being fed up. They just simply can't afford to live the way that they had been, and they had spent all of their revenge spending, so to speak, coming out of Covid. Americans do a great job of spending to that very last nickels burning a hole in their pocket. And we've done just that. If you stratify that out amongst income quintile, so to speak, even that top quintile of earners is starting to really run out of gas when it comes to their spending. And that obviously the consumer is a massive part of U.S. GDP that could absolutely start to retract this economy by quite a bit. So there's that front. You could have inflation pick up again, especially if you get a rate cut. And that's inflationary in some areas. Depending on where we go from a political standpoint, you could have some inflationary policies that creep back in and we start this whole cycle over again. The market psyche would be absolutely rocked if we got a rate hike. We're not predicting that. And that's nowhere near base case. But that's just yet one more thing that could add to the stones that are stacking up on on one side of that liability column. And to your point two. Speaking of liabilities, our interest payments as the US government is probably going to eclipse $1 trillion in interest payments coming up very soon. That is absolutely unsustainable. So we have a lot of things and factors that are baking into all of this that are cracks that could become massive fissures. And it's always the thing you don't necessarily expect. Maybe it's not the Black swan, but maybe the gray swan, right. Something in between. That's the bit of a known unknown. Those are the things that crop up when people aren't looking. So we should never be so foolish as to think that we as, you know, people that are observing markets and in them every day have any way or capability of fully mitigating against some of these downsides. So there's very real concern that we've gone too far too fast. We have yet to really ring fence a lot of these issues that I mentioned, not the least of which, of course, is geopolitical or even non-U.S. markets and economies.
John Coleman: Yeah. And I would say if you ask me for kind of one short term thing to watch, just to complement. But Brandon was saying valuations are pretty high in the stock markets right now. If you think about it's not necessarily Black Swan. It's just looking at historical averages. You know if you look 2002 to 2020. So pre-pandemic the average price to earnings in public markets was just above 15 times our forward price to earnings or just below 16 times thrown off a little bit to the downside by the great financial crisis. So even say it might be a turn or two higher than that right now. They basically said it 22 times. And so it's 40% higher than the pre-pandemic average of the last 15 years. And so we are seeing price earnings multiples in public markets that are historically quite high. And in the long term problem, you you guys are highlighting with government spending in the United States, I think is real. Give a speech recently where, you know, we think rates are high, all this kind of stuff actually putting in context the environment we're in today, inflation's pretty normal given 50 year historical standards. Rates are actually pretty much the average of the like the last 40 or 50 years. Mortgage rates are like pretty much the average. I mean, people forget in the 80s, for example, there were like 15% mortgage rates, right? I mean, you know, pretty out of control inflation. So a lot of those readings are actually we feel tight because since the great financial crisis, we've been living in like a zero interest rate environment. But that was actually the historical anomaly. And so we're actually a little bit closer to normal rates right now, which I think is a cause for optimism because it's like, look, the economy function pretty darn well, you know, for 50 years operating at these rates. And so we got used to something lower. But the big problem I see is how much government spending could long term really hamper the effectiveness of the US economy. That's the big difference versus the last 50 years, Brandon said. First quarter and next year we're going to pass $1 trillion in interest payments annually. The deficits are as big as they've ever been. Basically right now, that's across administrations, Republican and Democrat. There's no meaningful push right now to reform entitlements, which are, you know, between interest rate payments, health care and Social Security. That's the vast majority of government spending right now. So even if you cut military spending in half, for example, you're not really cutting the long term budget deficit or the debt. And I think over time, that's the type of thing that genuinely can overtake an economy. We saw that happen in Japan, where they ran these massive deficits and built up a debt over time, and we're not immune to that. And I think that's something over the medium to long term that I think we can't underestimate the impact of, and which is quite different from all the kind of 50, 60 year historical metrics that we'd otherwise look at in the United States. The other thing is, our growth rate right now is like much better than Europe. For example, the US is 26% of the global economy. The state of Missouri is richer GDP per capita than the country of Germany. I mean, you know, the United States is a really effective, successful, wealthy nation. And yet most of our growth recently has been a result of the increased government spending. And so I do have long term concerns about the growth of the US economy, especially in light that the long term debt that we've accrued as a government.
Brandon Pizzurro: Non-u.s markets remain about two standard deviations cheap to U.S. markets, just U.S. exceptionalism across the board.
Richard Cunningham: Wow. Right. Well, that's a great segue, guys, because let's talk U.S. government spending in particular. Who's going to be in charge come this next election cycle. There's all types of debate about how much who's in the white House, the House and the Senate, who's in control actually pertains in the markets. But boy, it sure does get the headlines. We now know who Donald Trump's running with in Ohio, Senator JD Vance. President Biden will not be going up for reelection, at least at this time. It sounds like the Democrat nominee will be Vice President Kamala Harris. Where are we at with all of this, Brandon, in your role stewarding so many assets, leading a massive team? How do you keep your team kind of, you know, level headed and on the playing field, kind of focusing on the right things in the midst of, you know, all of the political headlines and everything like that. And also just praise God. What took place in Butler, Pennsylvania, did not end up resulting in the death of a former president and that Donald Trump is okay and back on the campaign trail. So how are you guys kind of processing all of the political headlines in the midst of all of this, Brandon?
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, there's a lot of noise right around these time periods, right, in terms of elections. And so, first and foremost, I say this a lot when people maybe catch me in the elevator or I do a presentation, maybe to our board. It's just that markets like certainty and regardless of what outcomes are, there's certainly a variety of outcomes. And there's different ways to play those outcomes. But markets like the certainty of knowing who those people will be, those people being president, vice president, and then of course, you know, on down the line House, Senate, etc.. And that is where we really try to focus people in on is like, once you know the rules of the game, you can play to that game, but it is a bit of a distraction. It's something that you have to take into account. That's where you kind of start to think about the probabilities of each of these scenarios. You can't lose too much sleep over it. It's something that you have to monitor and take into account. It goes into your overall calculus of what areas would benefit from what scenario. So you can always do the, you know, kind of cross sectional matrix, so to speak. But it's something that's certainly real. If you're kind of taking this back from a market perspective, it's all great. Poll the other day that just said that 70% of young voters in key battleground states say that cost of living and inflation are the most important issue. Think about that 70%. And I mentioned young voters in particular, because that's an interesting point. In 2024 is actually the first election in 30 years in which baby boomers won't be the majority voting bloc. And so the young voters, well, that's always been a phrase and a theme that people look to. They're an important cohort this time around. And cost of living and inflation is 70% of them is concern. By the way, the next biggest issue is abortion. And so in terms of us being faithful in the way that we are voting and keeping our focus there and stewarding assets and contemplating life and being pro-life, that's the second biggest issue. And while there's both sides of the equation in abortion, of course, when that poll comes out from a secular, you know, pollster, we know that there's faithful people that are being included in that poll and that that's an important element of where young people today thankfully see that pro-life stance. So just an interesting thing to take into account. But there's a lot going on from a political standpoint. But will I have to stand by and see where the chips fall?
John Coleman: Yeah, I have zero, ability to predict what's going to happen in this country over the course of the next week. Four months, I think. Yeah. Day, 24 hours, you know? Gosh, all I would say is I've never certainly in my lifetime, there's never been as unpredictable a political environment. I think in the 60s, you saw the closest analogy to now where very unfortunately and obviously, I mean, the one thing we can all say, it's like political violence has no role in a democracy. The attempted assassination of former president was a horrifying thing. You know, the only analogy that comes to mind for me is the late 60s, where they went into where Bobby Kennedy was tragically assassinated as the leading candidate for president among the Democratic Party, unpopular Republican, went into the convention not knowing exactly who would be the candidate. There was a lot of disruption. The external environment was pretty chaotic as well, really, and that was before I was born. That's the only time I can think of that looked a little bit like this time in recent US political history. And so it's very unclear. It does seem like now we have a pretty good sense that Harris and Trump will be the two presidential candidates. The prediction markets now have them pretty close to equal. I mean, Trump on predicted I think is at $0.57 on the dollar. Kamala is at $0.44 on the dollar. And so it's tightened a little bit. I think the markets have Trump probably winning. I think there will be obviously between Democratic and Republican administrations. There are different approaches. Republicans are typically more anti-regulation, typically in favor of lower taxes. Democrats are typically the opposite in markets, you know, tend to look favorably on less regulation, on lower corporate and individual taxes. What's interesting to me right now is neither candidate is trying to address structural spending problem. So they both effectively said that we're not going to touch Social Security. And. Health care, Medicaid and Medicare. And the modern Republican ticket is a little more populous and a little more big government, I think, than a recent history of Republican tickets. Just in terms of, you know, you saw the president of the Teamsters union speak at the Republican National Convention recently, which is a huge change. And Vice President nominee Vance. Senator Vance has actually been a pretty big proponent of unions, for example. And so I find it harder to predict what's going to happen in politics now than any time in my lifetime. I think my hope as a person of faith and as an American is a couple fold. One is, some of the more extreme rhetoric in this election has got to come back to Earth. I think certainly acts of violence have no place in the 60s. The Democratic convention that I talked about had a ton of violence at it. Honestly, going into it, I really hope and pray that's not the case with the coming convention. That'll happen in August. And, you know, my hope is that as Americans, we really take a sense of responsibility and that we can restore a sense of stability and civility to a process which has become quite chaotic this year. But beyond that, I don't know that I have any particular insight to what the next 24 hours will look like, much less the next four months.
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah, it seems like almost every year you could say we are living in unprecedented times. And I think it's almost always true as well. So yeah, there are corollaries and there's things that we can learn from, from the past and history rhymes, but it is very interesting to see it unfold in real time.
Richard Cunningham: Well, hey. Well, we're talking about kind of having that eternal, steadfast approach to just all things as relates to political times, whatever it might be. I do want to spend just a couple minutes, Brandon, while we have you talking about the faith based investing space, the innovation you're seeing, some of the things you're deeply encouraged by, maybe some of the areas where we still need to innovate. We don't have a ton of time to hit on this, but Guidestones being such a look to leader across this space, should we be missed not to kind of have an opportunity for you to lean in real quickly on all you're seeing and kind of the faith driven investing ecosystem?
Brandon Pizzurro: Sure, I appreciate that. We're certainly seeing. I think a wider adoption and acceptance for maybe those that were on the periphery, maybe those that were faithful, that never really saw the juxtaposition of where their money intersects with their faith. And I believe all of the players in the space Guidestones and all the others that are doing great, faithful work in the faith based investing space have really done a superb job in starting to get the word out and having people start to embrace what this is. I think a lot of the ways in which we have approached just trying to be biblically sound, you know, one of the things I try to tell people is that if you flip to the back of your Bible, you're not going to have a list of things to do and don't from a faith based investing standpoint in terms of, you know, public markets and private markets, that as long as you try to be as most biblically centered as you can, and that's what we seek to do. And I know a lot of others seek to do the exact same thing, and then that's going to win over time. I believe we're starting to see that. My head of intermediary distribution the other day and I were talking, and he was just saying that out in the field, the sense is that he doesn't necessarily have to open so much with. Here's kind of what faith based investing means. It's more of giving them more detail on how to go about doing it. And he just said he feels like there's a stronger yearning from people not only in the pews, so to speak, but just even a broader public that are coming around to seeing. It's not a mutually exclusive proposition. You can have faith based investing, and you can also seek to solve your retirement or any other investing goal. So I'm really encouraged by just kind of the momentum, so to speak, that's really been taking place here. And impact investing, which again, a lot of people are doing great work in, in that space that we've fully embraced as well. And I think that's not only the next frontier, but just being biblically sound is really kind of the, you know, the North Star that we always have to seek to honor.
John Coleman: And I say a lot of that is driven. You know, the idea is how do we just better align all of our capital with the values of our faith? Like, how can every resource at our disposal be aligned with our mission personally or institutionally? And I'd say, just briefly, to affirm what Brandon was saying, it's the intellectual curiosity and the seek to innovate are the leaders of these institutions in a way that's aligned with mission? I think that drives the trend that allows people to really serve their constituents better. And I'll compliment Brandon on what I've seen. I think his curiosity about this space, his willingness to innovate, the exploration of these trends, it's leaders like him who are really able to push the boundaries of what this can look like in a sensible way, in a fiduciary way, and with the professionalism that needs to take place for this to become an institutional approach to faith driven investing. And I hope we can all kind of continue that innovation, that intellectual curiosity, coupled with the commitment to excellence that's necessary to make this a sustainable trend.
Richard Cunningham: It's awesome. Well said, both of you. All right. Well, we've covered a lot of ground, gentlemen. And, Brandon, you get to take us home. Just we love asking this question. And it is. What is God been teaching you and in through his word lately?
Brandon Pizzurro: Yeah, it's it's a great question and a constant. Right. Every day. There's always something to learn. There's always that striving towards, you know, keeping your faith closer in alignment in that walk and encouraging not only yourself, but also others around you. And that's part of my role here, Guys town, as well as leading from that standpoint. I kind of settled on a verse I think that's been running around in my head quite a bit more recently. And that's first John 217. It's just the world and its desires pass away. But whoever does the will of God lives forever. And I think that's really a mantra that we should be getting behind all of us, right, in the Faith-Based investing community broadly. It's just that what we are doing, we're dealing with intermediaries and counterparties and trading and accounting statements and everything else that goes into the world of what we all do every day. But we need to daily pick our head up and just remind ourselves that all of these things pass away. We're doing these things for our current human existence on this earth, but there's certainly the next world, and that's the eternity that we're seeking, you know, to find, you know, our passion in our heart in. And that's where we really need to our, our store of treasure. Right. But that verse in particular has been resonated with me lately as we seek to lead our team in the second half of this year and going forward.
Richard Cunningham: That's awesome. Well, Brandon Pizarro, president Chief Investment Officer at Guy Stone Capital Management. What an encouragement to have you on, John Brandon, both of you. Thank you for your wisdom. We looked at a lot today. It's great to get some fresh perspective and just appreciate you both and friends. Thanks for joining us.
Brandon Pizzurro: Thanks so much. Enjoyed being on.