Episode 173 - Marks on the Markets: A Data-Backed Look at the State of Faith Driven Investing with Tim Macready
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Brightlight’s Chief Investment Officer, Tim Macready, joins John Coleman and Richard Cunningham for a discussion on the state of faith-driven investing, the opportunities ahead, and the impact of faith values on investment portfolios.
The three delve into the theology and purpose behind faith-driven investing, as well as the role of corporate engagement in influencing companies for good.
The conversation also explores the growth and performance of the faith-driven investing market as well as key market trends.
Tim also discusses his groundbreaking research about the effectiveness of and the opportunity for Faith Driven Investing around the world, providing listeners with practical insights that will help them get in the game.
All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization.
Episode Transcript
Transcription is done by an AI software. While technology is an incredible tool to automate this process, there will be misspellings and typos that might accompany it. Please keep that in mind as you work through it.
Richard Cunningham: You're listening to Faith Driven Investor, a podcast that highlights voices from a growing movement of Christ following investors who believe that God owns it all and cares deeply about the heart posture behind our stewardship. Thanks for listening.
Rusty Rueff: Hey everyone! All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies of securities discussed, and this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization. Thanks for listening.
Richard Cunningham: What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor podcast. Grateful to have you tuned in from wherever you're getting this podcast. This is dropping on Monday, June 3rd. So for those of you in the Northern hemisphere, happy Summer. It is upon us in Austin, Texas. It's scorching hot already. And with that in mind, we've got John Coleman in the podcast studio, Tim MacReady. And this is going to be a really fun episode. It's a marks on the markets episode. But before we go there, I want to quickly plug some things going on in the FDI ministry and ecosystem, and that is Foundation courses. Kick off July 8th and October 14th. Those are kind of the final two cohorts for this year, and we take great joy and pride in producing content like the FDI podcast within the faith driven investor ecosystem. But as with all things inside the body of Christ, it is better and community and alongside brothers and sisters. And so we'll just heavily encourage you if you're listening to the podcast and you have yet to go through an FDI Foundation course, this is the way to experience kind of the beginning of community within the FDI ecosystem. And once again, July 8th and October 14th, something really fun that we're also doing, taking place on June 21st and 22nd, as well as September 13th and 14th, is kind of this weekend workshop for spouses and couples where you can experience the FDI Foundation course in a weekend. So maybe you as a spouse have gone through it and you'd love to take your husband or wife through the course. This could be a really neat opportunity to kind of experience faith driven investing community in a retreat style setting. And then all of this. If you have any questions faith driven investor.org, go hover over community or email Samantha Couch or Ben McLennan from our team. They are both Sam or Samantha at Faith driven investor.org and Ben at Faith Driven Investor.org. So I know that's an abnormal kind of plug here before we start a podcast, but just know that we are deeply proud of these community opportunities and they are deeply meaningful experiences. Tim MacReady, John Coleman have both participated, helped lead, have been featured in all types of community opportunities that we've offered there with me in the podcast studio today. John Coleman, how is your Memorial Day?
John Coleman: Man, it was great. And just let me follow up with that plug. I have heard so much awesome feedback on the FDI groups on the community. So you guys are building the content is really good. I've obviously experienced it myself, but I keep hearing from people how impactful it's been and so I hope everybody listening will really consider if they haven't done an FDI group, if they're considering a weekend community. I think this new couple's content is really cool, actually. Jackie and I are thinking about going through it soon. I know Brooke and Luke, we're a big part of that as well. So just great work to the faith driven investor team there because you guys are piecing together something incredibly meaningful.
Richard Cunningham: Thank you, John, for that. All right, John, I mean, he's got to be one of my favorite people. If we were to like power rank folks involved in the FDI ecosystem, Tim is easily my top Australian voice, I'll tell you that much. But led $1 billion Australian pension fund. So Tim, please correct me if I say anything wrong. Christian super. Recently in 2022 relocated his family to the States. He's in Colorado. He's running bright light, which is just an amazing research institution and just financial services organization that is going across kind of this broader FDI ecosystem and providing institutional level research, diligence, scoping out the kind of breadth and depth of the FDI ecosystem. And it's just a really key and important leg of the stool as it relates to helping get people in the game of faith driven investing. In our January 2024 FDI conference, Tim was a featured speaker. He gave all types of data on just what is going on in the FDI ecosystem, the growth we've seen just in the last few years alone, such a key voice. You'll always see him speaking at things like Kingdom Advisors. So Tim, what a joy to have you on the podcast. And let's start with you kind of filling in any of the gaps of my kind of career progression for you there, because your story is just too interesting not to highlight.
Tim MacReady: Richard. John, really good to be with you and with our audience today. Yeah. So to kind of dial a little further back, even I grew up on the mission field. Parents were missionaries in Papua New Guinea. I returned to Australia for college at 17 and studied actuarial science with the goal of kind of getting into financial services and seeing what was what opened through God's kind of moving there ends up working in corporate pensions consulting for nearly five years, kind of building skills. And then, as you mentioned, moved to Christian super, pension fund, superannuation is Australian for pension and spent 15 years there really exploring. What does it mean in the context of a pension fund where you're stewarding assets on behalf of 30,000 Australians? What does it mean to be faithful? What does it mean to think about not just retirement from a biblical perspective, but also investing from a biblical perspective? And we really wrestle through what strategies can we use to develop this faith based investing capability? Can we screen out of the portfolio those companies that are misaligned to. Our values and to human flourishing. Can we invest more in those companies that are leading towards flourishing? Can we exercise our influence as shareholders? Can we even invest in faith driven entrepreneurs and faith driven leaders in the marketplace? And as I said, do that for 15 years. Out of that team of Christian Super, we formed Bright Light, which is where I work today. We've got people across Australia, New Zealand and myself here in the US, really at this intersection of how do we marry faith values and investment portfolios in a way that is excellent and has integrity to our investment objectives and our faith?
John Coleman: Well, if I could just pump up Tim a little bit more because you could miss it in that description, which was beautiful. He was really one of the first movers in the institutional marketplace, in faith driven investing, particularly from a positive screening perspective. Tim, I think what you all did at Christian Super more than a decade ago starting to get into this, I know, in full transparency for the audience. There were early investors with sovereigns, but from my point of view, kind of along with the McLellan Foundation, maybe a couple of others, Christian Super led the way for what the evolution of faith driven investing could look like, covering both negative and positive screening, getting beyond negative screening, trying to support managers who are doing that. And now I'm just so encouraged by what you all are doing in the context of bright light as well, carrying on and evolving that legacy further. And I think with your background also adding a lot of rigor to producing frameworks and data regarding faith driven investing that can help solidify in institutionalize the industry in really meaningful ways. So some of our audience might not be familiar with that background, but Tim has been a leader here for more than a decade, as he articulated. And I think his work at Christian Super and now Bright Light has been some of the most important in the industry.
Richard Cunningham: Tim we get to get on calls often. So I'm going a little off script here, but you're kind of theology for the why behind faith driven investing I think is so captivating. And so as we get into bright light in the research, you're doing, some of that conference talk that you gave, I think it would be helpful to, to start with some of the why? Because I think some people still are kind of like, what's the big deal? Why faith driven investing? I don't kind of find it compelling yet. And we want this to be something that's never prescriptive or presumptuous. We want the Lord to lead here. But your kind of articulation of the theology and you're kind of personal. What I thought has always been super meaningful.
Tim MacReady: Yeah. I mean, I love getting into this, Richard. I think when we look at the calling and vocation that God gives us as believers, there's a general calling to faithfulness, to obedience, to living out our faith in every sphere of life. And so for those of us working in the investment field or in finance, I think it's really important to understand and to think through, well, what is it? What is the redemptive purpose? What is the contribution to God's redemptive plan for the world that investing or finance has? And for me, it boils down to this. Investing in general as an activity takes capital from places where it would be unproductive, to places where it can be used productively for profit and for human flourishing to produce goods and services that promote human flourishing. And I think that's a vision of investing that we could get on board with, even without a deep understanding of the gospel, the idea that God has an overall redemptive plan for the world that is about flourishing in about relationships with him and with each other. And so then as a believer, how do we live that out? Well, we look for places where investing can be more redemptive, can lead to more of those goods and services that create flourishing, and can move away from some of those goods and services that don't create flourishing. Companies do a lot of good. They create jobs. They create products, they create services. They create marketplaces where people can interact. These are all good things. As Christians, as believers, my theology of investing is how do we do more of that? How do we support companies that are doing more of that? And so that looks like how do we support faith driven entrepreneurs, faith driven investors specifically, but also how do we get alongside those broader parts of the market that are actually also about flourishing, even if not necessarily specifically faith oriented in their approach?
John Coleman: Well, in Tim, I think what you've articulated there, the flourishing thing can sound a little bit like motherhood and apple pie, to use a US expression, where everybody says, of course, of course, that's what we want. But I think it's, you know, one of my side gigs is I write a little bit primarily for Harvard Business Review, and the big topic I write about is purpose, meaning human flourishing. And the situation we face in the world right now is reasonably bleak, actually, even as the world is becoming more prosperous, safer people's perception of their own flourishing of things like loneliness, of disengagement, of dissatisfaction, of purposelessness is growing right despite that prosperity. And so it's not a given even within capitalism, which I think we think it's the right system, right? It unleashes human potential. It's innovative. But even within that system, it's so possible for people to not flourish, to feel disengaged, to feel like their work doesn't have meaning. And if you look at all the stats, I think globally only around 15% of people feel engaged at work right now, depending on the country. There's no country I've seen where a majority of people feel like work is a meaningful source of purpose in their life. I think the highest I've seen is Italy in the 40 something percent, in South Korea at 6%. Right. And so there is so much work for people who believe in human flourishing, who want people to feel purpose, who want people to leave work better than they came, to create work environments like that, to create redemptive products and services. And so I think it's easy to gloss over that idea of redemptive products and services, flourishing workplaces. But from my point of view, it's never been more important than it is today. And the disconnect has never been greater. In meeting our task as investors and entrepreneurs is a real challenging and timely one.
Richard Cunningham: Yeah, it's well said from both of you. All right, John, when we had Matt Monson on, you used the phrase towering intellect. And so I'm going to repeat that phrase here for Tim MacReady because buckle up folks, as you're listening, we're about to get into some just awesome data. So Tim, you do a lot of research, at bright light on a macro level of kind of the growth of the FDI ecosystem, but then also in just individual manager diligence and looking at product offerings and funds out there and understanding, hey, is this a good fit for particular advisors and their clientele or institutions? And you serve in a number of roles at Bright Light, but I just kind of want to hand the floor over you and say, hey, you've done so much study on the kind of the ecosystem and the faith driven investing movement. Where should we start this conversation? And then I know we're going to get into some numbers. So it's going to be fun to hear.
Tim MacReady: Yes thanks, Richard. So to kind of start with what's our role in the ecosystem for groups like us that kind of support a lot of market participants? It can be kind of tough to pin where exactly we fall. So our job is to help the people who want to invest in line with their values, to find the right investments to make. If you imagine, and I know there's many metaphors flying around, but if you imagine capital markets as systems of plumbing that funnel capital from one place to another, the way that pipes funnel water from one place to another in the faith driven ecosystem, many of those pipes are blocked or still being built. And our job with a plumber who comes along to build the pipes and to unblock the pipes. And so we support investment advisers, family offices, charitable foundations, donor advised funds and all kinds of other investors who want to align their values in their portfolio. And so, as you've said, that means we research the market broadly, but we also research individual strategies and products across both the public and private markets in the faith driven investment ecosystem. And then we use that research to help construct diversified portfolio, whether that's tailored for individual clients or model portfolios that advisors can use across multiple clients that integrate these faith based strategies across both public and private markets. And this necessitates a lot of research. We research because we want to bring confidence, transparency and excellence to this space of faith driven investing. And we hope that our research does that in the macro sense. When we do research into the state of the faith based investing market. It shows the depth of the market. It shows that this is a real market with over $100 billion invested in it. It demonstrates the performance of the market. It shows that there are strategies that have track records of delivering good performance, and it just helps people to understand what it is that they're investing in. So that's the confidence side. It also brings transparency by publishing research. We're able to show that there are differences between faith based strategies and their broader market counterparts. We can show that when faith based funds screen companies that are not aligned to Christian values or not supporting flourishing when portfolios are different, we can show that these organizations exercise their rights as shareholders differently. We can show that they are finding positive opportunities to invest in companies doing good, or to use their influence for good. Transparency helps us to understand why faith driven strategies are different in a way that we hope inspires and helps consumers to make informed decisions in line with their values. And then on the excellence side of things, we're able to highlight trends. We're able to find gaps in the market. As many products as there are, there are still some parts of the market where there's only a few products on the shelves, or the shelves are looking a bit empty, and we're able to push the ecosystem and specifically the managers within the ecosystem towards excellence. Five years ago, for example, best practice largely looked like just screening out sin stocks in certain industries. Now, screening can be much more nuanced. We've got corporate advocacy and engagement strategies being more widely adopted. We're seeing the beginnings of integrating more positive impact criteria into portfolio design. All of those point towards excellence. And then we can also identify those products and strategies where we think improvement is needed in order to kind of lift to that excellence level. And then when we get to researching individual strategies, it's the same thing. It's the confidence, the transparency and excellence to help people to allocate. And we can go into some more detail in that as we continue our conversation.
John Coleman: Tim, would you say a little bit more about the corporate engagement side in particular? You know, we just had two wonderful Catholic investors on the podcast. We had Tony Minopoli from the Knights of Columbus and Andrew Abela from Catholic University, both of whom are helping the Catholic Church think through what this looks like. And I do think, as you've articulated in public markets, there's this pushing a negative screening is kind of table stakes for most now. I think almost everyone believes that that has a role at some level. Some people screen out 20 stocks, some people screen out 800. You know, that's a choice of preference. I think the next step, which is becoming easier and easier, especially through things like direct indexing, is corporate engagement and proxy voting. This idea that if you hold a stock, you should take back your voice and use your voice to potentially influence the companies. And then, of course, I think as you articulated, that third step, which is the hardest, but also perhaps the most worthwhile, is this positive screening or thematic engagement, like how do we invest specifically in things we're supportive of, corporate engagement in particular such a hot topic right now? Would you say more about what that looks like from a Christian perspective? I know you're doing some of that. Like how does that manifest and why is it important?
Tim MacReady: So we use corporate engagement to speak to a wide range of strategies, all designed around the central goal of influencing the companies that we're invested in for good, in alignment with our values. We're at the point now where I think table stakes for corporate engagement is proxy voting it its shareholders. When we own shares in companies, we have rights to vote those. Many times the company, at their annual general meeting will present all the standard things. Approve the auditor. Approve the remuneration report, elects new directors all of the nuts and bolts that make a company work at an operational level. But increasingly over the last five seven years, companies are either bringing themselves or having brought into the discussion at these annual general meetings resolutions on a whole range of other things. It might be resolutions to investigate supply chain transparency risks for a company that's sourcing from offshore. It might be resolutions to explore what the implications of paying a living wage or a certain minimum wage would be to low income employees. And many of these resolutions actually speak in large part to the values of the company. Yes, they're about the long term financial success of the company, but many times they're speaking to the values that shareholders expect a company to live out in the way that it conducts its operations. And so those kinds of resolutions, we think it's really important for faith based firms who are managing assets to understand and to vote on sometimes something that at first blush looks wonderful, like eliminate all child labor from a supply chain can actually be very complex for a company to do, and we might prefer to see more nuanced approaches that, say, understand the risks of child labor in a supply chain, and take steps to support communities who are kind of forced into that situation. But even just exercising votes, there is, we think, table stakes now for managers working in this space. And five years ago, that wasn't true. Five years ago, most managers just outsourced their proxy voting to a central firm who would just vote them in whatever way they thought. But then we take a step further. So those conversations around supply chain, around child labor, around politicization, around what communities are served, around creating flourishing spaces for employees, invitations to a broader dialog with a company on those issues. And we think that the best strategies today, and we do this with some of the clients that we support on their behalf, actually involve sitting down with companies and saying, hey, we're believers. We represent a broad pool of assets that comes from people who believe in the dignity of everyone made in God's image, who want to see flourishing, who want to see your company profit and succeed. We'd like to have a conversation with you about these issues, about how trafficking risks might play into your operations, or how risks of certain localized environmental issues where they might be polluting local rivers and causing problems for water supplies. All of these things, we think, are invitations to speak to companies and to demonstrate that we think as Christians we care about their long term profitability, but we also care about how they do their business and the people that they serve.
John Coleman: Well, one thing that I think is unique about what you're talking about, a lot of times corporate engagement has been portrayed in public and often as executed as negative, like we're lobbying against something right now. There's a big example where a couple of big pension funds are fighting Exxon on something and trying to get rid of the entire board, for example. What we found is sovereigns. And I think what you're describing is often the leaders of these companies want to do the right thing. Often they actually want to do things that help people to flourish. Often they're people of faith, right, who agree with some of those principles, but they need a voice to articulate those amongst their shareholders to try and prioritize them. And so this isn't just negative. It's not just beating companies up. Often. It's working with management teams to help them more fully express the values they already hold. And in that way, I think corporate engagement can be more than just the kind of beating up a company, although that might be necessary sometimes. It can also be encouraging them to do the right thing, helping them to understand where something is happening that they might not have seen, or being a shareholder voice for something the leader would like to do, so that it's easier to have that discussion with their board.
Tim MacReady: Absolutely, John. I think corporate engagement brings both the prophetic voice and the priestly voice, the prophetic voice that says, this is wrong. As believers, we believe in the dignity of all people. And this direction that you're going company is wrong. But often it also needs to be the priestly voice that gets alongside internal resources of the company and gives them the support to advocate internally on these kinds of issues. And so I think both are important.
Richard Cunningham: Man, it's good to hear you guys riff on Tim. You mentioned it in your earlier comments about kind of this idea of just unknowingly, almost kind of just lobbying away your corporate engagement. And a lot of times it's been institutional shareholder [.....] are the two main kind of proxy voting in corporate engagement. You know, almost service providers, if you will. And Jerry Boyer did some research recently just looking at the way those organizations are voting. And you kind of wonder, hey, how did so much money so rapidly plow into ESG and spaces like that? And it's really it's because these centralized locations. Tim, you were talking about that. Many large institutions just kind of wield their influence, if you will, just because it's what everyone else is doing. They vote the rights, if you will. And so that's kind of how we get into situations where there's a lot of just homogenous, similar behavior among these kind of mega corporations, if you will. All right. Well, cool to hear you guys hit on that topic, Tim. Confidence, transparency, excellence. In terms of the reasoning and the rationale behind a lot of your research on the confidence piece, a lot of it is showing the depth and breadth of the market and the broader FDI space. And this gets back to that conference talk that you gave in January. Any comments there? And just kind of insight on where we are on a macro level within the faith driven investing landscape?
Tim MacReady: Yeah, we are gearing up to publish our second annual research report into the state of play in public markets for faith based investing and faith driven investing. This year, we've gone past $100 billion in faith based strategies across mutual funds and ETFs and [....] funds. Last year, I think we were at about $90 billion. So there's been good growth in the market over the last 12 months. There are 164 mutual funds and ETFs, and that's not even accounting for all the separately managed accounts, strategies and model strategies that people can have access to as well. With 25 managers working directly in the faith based investing space, including 20 managers working solely in faith based investing. So every product that they have is integrating faith alignment strategies in some way. And so there's this depth of products available. But also like a $100 billion market is a big market. We might look at that relative to the size of the asset management market overall in the tens, if not hundreds of trillions of dollars and think it's just a drop in the bucket. And it is. But $100 billion is a big number, and that's a lot of assets that are being thoughtful about the way that they're stewarded for values as well as for growth. So we look at the performance of the market as we drove deep this year. We wanted to look at whether performance that was coming out of faith driven strategies is consistent with what we would expect and with what we see in the broader market. And the answer is that it is we divided the universe up into passive funds and active funds, passive funds that just invest essentially in an index or a benchmark, and active products that are seeking to add value. And over the last 12 months, we found that 38% of the active funds outperformed their benchmark. That is better than the broader market, where 36% of funds outperformed their benchmark last year in the index or passive fund space. We found that performance is very closely aligned to the indexes that once you accounted for fees, essentially those funds perform pretty much exactly as you would expect them to. Now there's a range of quality in that. There are strategies that seem to be consistently outperforming. There are strategies that seem to be consistently underperforming, and there are many products that seem to cluster around what we would expect their performance to be based on the benchmarks for the kinds of assets that they're investing in. But overall, as I said, we just found that performance is consistent with what we're seeing in the broader market. We also have done a deeper dive this year into fees and costs, where we have found that fees are expenses of the mutual funds and ETFs are slightly higher than what we see in comparable products in the broader market landscape. You can get index products. The average index fee at the moment in the broad market is five basis points, or 0.0 5%. The average fee in faith based index products is around about 0.25% up our products available from as little as nine basis points all the way through to about 44 basis points. And similarly for active products, we found about a 15 basis point fee increase for face products over their non faith products. But crucially, we also found that the average fees in faith based products are falling faster than fees in the rest of the industry. And so as more assets flow to faith based investing, we're starting to see those fees expenses converge with the broader market. And it's very common as new products and strategies are developed for fees to start higher and then drop down. So overall, the big message that we're finding from our research is that this is a credible movement with a significant amount of capital invested and performance that aligns with the kinds of performance that we would expect in the kinds of performance we would get if we didn't adopt faith based investing strategies.
Richard Cunningham: Yeah. That's encouraging. And another one of the things you said, too, is that as the credibility grows, the assets grow. It seems like the fees are falling and the ability to access is getting easier, as that number has jumped to that 164. And that's only mutual fund and ETFs. I think you mentioned 25 managers and 20 of which are working solely in the faith based space. Tim. So this is public market side. You do a lot also on the private market side, specifically on manager diligence and individual, you know, fund diligence, probably harder to capture all of the macro data like it's, you know, available in the public markets. But what are you seeing there? As you look across kind of the private markets.
Tim MacReady: Yeah. And Richard, let me speak to why we think that the micro-level research is important as well. So it's one thing for me to get up and say, hey, this is a big market. There's lots of products available, but that doesn't necessarily help people to know which products to buy. As with anything in investing, putting the wrong portfolio building block into the wrong part of the portfolio, even if it performs as it's expected, can actually lead to investment outcomes that are not aligned with a client's objectives or with an investor's goals. And so one of the things that's challenging about allocating to faith based strategies is clients may not know how to talk to advisors about all the different options they have. 164 product is an awful lot of products. And as you've said, it doesn't even take into account all the separately managed account strategies or all the strategies in the private markets. Advisors might not be able to access all the products. And so it's important not just to understand the broad landscape, but to understand the investment credentials and the faith integration credentials of a product, to know whether it's right for you or for a client that you're working with. Even with something as basic as screening, there are so many different approaches to what is screened and how screening is applied. Do we just take the traditional sin stocks, or do we also try and hit on some of these much more qualitative and subjective issues, like child labor or trafficking or harassment? And so we think it's just as important when you're building a faith based portfolio to understand the role of each building block in a portfolio. We would love to know. We would love to be able to confidently say which strategies will outperform next year, in which ones won't, but because we don't, each strategy has to play a role in a diversified portfolio. Some will perform better if markets do well, some will perform better if markets struggle. And then you need the expertise to package these different products together into a coherent strategy that performs the way that the client expects us to. And so that's why across both public and private markets, we research and evaluate strategies across the areas that we think matter to faith based investors, both their investment merits but also their faith integration merits. That is particularly important in the private markets. It's much harder to get data. We don't have a concrete scale where we know exactly how many assets are invested. We know it's into the billions of dollars. We just don't know how many billions of dollars. We saw about 50 strategies launched last year, specifically in the faith driven space, whether that's groups investing in faith driven entrepreneurs, whether it's groups investing in multifamily housing and putting chaplains in to support community development and gospel witness opportunities, whether it's in the private credit space where we see groups lending to faith driven and impact driven entrepreneurs, even in some of the more esoteric spaces cooperatives, employee ownership. We've just seen a lot of products launched in the last year. And so we know, as I said, roughly 50 products launched last year. The highest category was private equity and venture capital with probably 30 or so products, real assets. So multifamily housing, office, etc. was probably about ten strategies and about ten strategies in private credit and other types of approaches. We're going deeper on trying to understand the scale of the market and map the performance. It's going to take us a little longer than it did for the public markets, because the data is not so readily available and it's often in inconsistent formats. But that's part of our job, is to translate that complex data into something that consumers can understand. As we look at the private markets, here's what we do see. We see increasing size. We're seeing many managers starting to come back with fund three fund four at larger sizes than what they raised in earlier funds. We're seeing scalable opportunities, particularly in the real estate space, and we're seeing an increased what we would describe as institutional quality, what you might also call kind of professionalism and excellence across the board, just lifting levels as the movement grows and as the amount of capital invested increases.
John Coleman: Well, I think one of the things you highlighted that's really important from our perspective is thinking about both the spiritual integration or impact, as well as the financial acumen or the investment quality. I think one of the things that's plagued the industry a bit in the past is the gray lines in faith driven investing between concessionary investing and market return investing, and sometimes people had an impact thesis. They would kind of pitch it as market return, but it was really concessionary in some respect. And I think the future is look, there is a role for concessionary investing. Not everything has to be at market. I think that spectrum between philanthropy and market returns is broad, and there's actually room along every part of that spectrum, including pure philanthropy, but getting much clearer about which strategies are concessionary for their asset classes, which are market return is incredibly important. And, you know, one of the things that we've embraced is in a variety of ways. There are theses in faith driven investing and spiritually integrated investing that can lead to market outperformance. The thesis we embrace as a firm is that faith aligned cultures can outperform the cultures that promote human flourishing, and a love of God and love of neighbor can beat their competition in the marketplace. And hopefully that leads to investment performance. But I think the data in the institutionalization of the industry to be clearer about those distinctions, about which strategies fall, where will only help the industry move forward, because then people will have clarity what they're measuring from an investment performance sense against mainstream offerings versus what they're doing with some sort of concessionary impact thesis, right? Whether that be through philanthropic dollars or whether that be, you know, through their private investing dollars, but acknowledging, you know, that they're intentionally seeing something below market for the risk that they're taking something. We see a lot. For example, Tim, on the credit side, when you talk about things like Micro-lending super valid strategy but often has concessionary elements to it, right. And I think people having a good understanding of that framework in which products fall and what parts of that spectrum is only good for the industry as it moves forward.
Tim MacReady: Absolutely, John, it speaks to this transparency piece of being able to say, what do we expect a particular strategy or products to deliver? And then we can measure whether the excellence flowed out of that is we set realistic objectives and setting realistic objectives, not just in the return side, but also in the impact side. One of the things that we have seen starting to happen in the industry, in faith based investing, is people with a lot of good intentions, but not necessarily a clear plan on how they're going to demonstrate that they achieved the impact that they set out to achieve, whether it's spiritual impact, social impact, creation care impact. And so one of the big areas of focus for us as we research products and strategies at the moment is, yes, continuing to push them on investment excellence, but really pushing deep on, okay, you're making these claims about if we invest in faith driven entrepreneurs, this will happen. Or if we put chaplains in multifamily apartment buildings, this will happen. Where's your evidence? What are you going to measure? What are you going to report back? How are we going to be able to demonstrate that this faith driven capital is delivering the kind of outcomes that are expected and with financial performance? I don't want to say that's easy, but it's relatively straightforward. We know what return we got at the end of the day with the impact performance. We want to see products being able to trace a line that says, here's how we think we're going to have a positive impact, support human flourishing. Here's what we did, here's what we measured to see whether that's happening or not.
Richard Cunningham: Tim, one of the lines I've heard you give is that the credible objections or hesitations for advisors and institutions to keep saying no to this space are starting to disappear. So maybe unpack that a bit more, and then I want to go rapid fire with you both on a little bit of just kind of tying comments on the marks on the market style of this podcast and just overview a little bit of what we're seeing as we turn the calendar from May into June.
Tim MacReady: So Richard the common objections we hear. The market's not big enough. It doesn't have enough depth. There's no evidence that the performance is going to be similar. What if I'm giving up performance and leaving something on the table? And that's a legitimate question, right? Like we want to be faithful stewards to invest as the master would have us invest. We get objections around kind of my advisor doesn't understand this or all of these kinds of things. And what we're seeking to do is systematically explore each of these objections and understand how valid they are. I think with $100 billion in 164 mutual funds and ETFs, the kind of depth of the market argument is dead in the water. There are some niche areas where faith based products don't exist. There are, for example, that we've found zero index bond funds. And so if you really want an index bond fund in the faith based market, you're going to struggle to find that. But there are a lot of low fee bond products that seem to perform very closely to the index. If you like growth stocks, there's growth products. If you like value, there's value. If you like small cap, the small cap. All of these different styles are available in various products. And so I think argument number one, the depth of the market isn't there. I think we've comprehensively demonstrated that by and large it is. If you want to get into some very niche strategies, it may be harder, but the depth of the market is there for the vast majority of what clients and advisors are looking for. The second question is this performance question that we believe we've tackled this year. And I mean, as researchers, we want to have integrity as we approach our research. As we went deep on performance, we didn't know for sure philosophically, theologically, as John has articulated, we think that there's a lot of merit to faith based investing strategies in terms of the way God has set the world up to work. But what would the evidence show? Well, the evidence is showing that the performance is there in line with the broader market. And so we think we're on the edge of kind of comprehensively busting that myth as well. Or that objection in terms of my advisor doesn't understand this or can't access the strategies. This is where we want to really challenge people. Push your advisor, make your advisor work with whoever is controlling their list of products to get these strategies on, and kind of tell your advisor, well, if you can't get me access to these kinds of strategies, then maybe you need to think about who you're working with, because there are [....] firms out there that will give advisors access to these strategies. And sometimes people need to be willing to push their advisor or encourage their advisor to move. There are some areas where I think there's legitimate concerns. The work that we've done on [.....] this year does show that faith based investing is marginally more expensive than its secular counterparts. We would encourage people to kind of wrestle through is that small additional cost worth it for the extra value that these organizations are bringing? All of the things that make faith based, investing genuinely faith based take time and they take effort. And so it makes sense to us that those products would be marginally more expensive than the non faith based counterparts. And so while that might be a legitimate objection, we'd encourage people to kind of wrestle with that question of what would the master have us do with what he's entrusted to us? And is 15 basis points really that much of a barrier when you look at the value that a lot of these faith driven managers are actually generating in terms of their not just its screening, but the impact on the companies through their engagement work. So we think that most of those barriers are either kind of demonstrated to be easily overcomeable or on their way to kind of having solutions.
Richard Cunningham: And that's good. Tim. And it's really good to hear you articulate. It paints the necessity and the importance of a firm like yours in the work you're up to. All right, both of you, rapid fire. We've done a marks on the markets and really on here on like the state of faith driven investing. But I want to do that even further and just kind of say what key happenings in the markets. You got rapid fire here. And I know that's not much time to unpack what's going on in the economy and public markets, but we'd love to hear from both of you what you're seeing lately and you're working in your research.
John Coleman: You know, I think since the last month, one of the key themes in the market, I'll highlight two themes that I think are really prominent right now. One is the disconnect in the way that people feel, at least in the United States, versus the statistics on the market generally. There have been a number of surveys recently, particularly with the presidential election coming, showing that a majority of Americans feel that we're in recession, even though the data would not confirm that. Quite the opposite, a number of Americans are feeling inflation more acutely than the data would say is happening. And so there's actually a really active debate right now about the distribution of economic activity in the United States, even though we're not technically in recession, even though inflation seems to be slowing, at least the growth of inflation seems to be slowing. It's normalizing a bit. Even though the markets are up, many people are still feeling the impacts of inflation and what they perceive as an economic slowdown more acutely. And indeed, there were some statistics recently that showed at. Least in real terms rather than nominal terms, that the majority of Americans are worse off than they were a few years ago. From an economic perspective, because inflation has outpaced their personal well-being, and there are even a lot of serious people now discussing whether CPI and inflation measures capture what's important. One of the easiest to understand examples was, recently there was a report that put out the increases in fast food prices at places like McDonald's, and you could see that a lot of menu items had either doubled or more than doubled over the course of the last few years, which, of course is greater than what I think it's been about 18% inflation over that period of time. And so there's a feeling that maybe CPI isn't accurately reflecting the types of things that are hitting most Americans, particularly things like housing, things like food, etc., that are quite important to them. And then the second topic that I see that we're tracking is this continued disconnect between what I'll call the Mega stops, the Mega cap stocks in small and mid-cap stocks. Large cap stocks have been on a roughly decade long run. Now, it's not even just large caps. It's the Magnificent Seven, or potentially a slightly larger group of securities in that, led by companies like Nvidia and Nvidia was worth $100 billion a few years ago. Now it's worth $2.5 trillion, I think. And they just released earnings that outpaced even what the analysts expected. And I think there's a question mark about how much longer that can last. Like, will we see a reversion to the mean between mid-cap and small cap stocks and large cap stocks? Or is there something sustainable, particularly in this mega cap run, particularly related to innovations like artificial intelligence that make it more sustainable? So I think all of us would have thought maybe a couple of years ago, like Nvidia has to slow down at some point. And yet it could be that AI is just becoming such a critically important part of the economy that we're seeing a fundamental economic transformation. And so I think there's a lot of discussion right now around what people's public markets exposure should look like. Given that historically mid-caps and small caps are now undervalued relative to large caps, and yet we continue to see this persistence in return. So those are two topics, at least over the last couple of weeks that I've been tracking.
Tim MacReady: Yeah, I'd agree with John there. And I'll pick up that point and kind of run with it. I think this dislocation that's happened between the large cap growth stocks, particularly those Magnificent Seven and the rest of the market, is really interesting. It does seem to be largely driven by these kind of expectations of productivity enhancement through artificial intelligence. And I think those stocks are positioned well to benefit from that. But people have seen that when we look at parts of the market that might be undervalued. One of the questions that I would ask is, well, who are the other beneficiaries? All of this artificial intelligence is going somewhere. Nvidia produces and is deeply involved with kind of many of the systems that will enable artificial intelligence, but where are the companies who are going to be the beneficiaries of this, whether it's pharmaceutical companies that might be able to significantly increase the pace of their research or the effectiveness of their research, whether it's professional services firms where they might be able to significantly increase productivity by using artificial intelligence tools to automate many of the responsibilities of those firms. We just haven't seen the same run up in the companies that are going to be the beneficiaries. And the uses of artificial intelligence that we've seen in the companies that are going to be the protagonists and the drivers of the creation of the tools of artificial intelligence. The second thing that I kind of draw attention to is around this kind of economic outlook, interest rate [.....] that we're at at the moment. For most of the last couple of years, the consensus was that all of the money that we had pumped into our economies in Covid, all of the kind of reduced interest rates that then kind of saw interest rates sharply increasing, that there was going to be a day of reckoning for that. And that day of reckoning probably looked like a fairly typical recession. Well, that's not how it's played out in the US. Companies and corporate profits have been really strongly resilient over 2023 and 2024. Europe struggled a little more, but even in the last quarter, we've started to see good economic activity indicators coming out of Europe there surprising to the upside. And inflation is tracking back towards the kind of 2 to 3% target across developed markets, albeit with all the caveats that John has mentioned there around, whether it's actually still as useful a metric as it was. And so investors are now expecting not to fall into a recession. We think that's probably a reasonable expectation. There's an optimistic outlook among investors that doesn't match the more pessimistic outlook among consumers. And we think a lot of the gap between those two things is going to be borne out in the pace of interest rates cuts, if and when they do come, people are expecting rate. Cuts to come in the latter part of 2024 into early 2025. If those are delayed, we may well start to see that business confidence and business indicators dropping back to where consumers are. If the rate cuts come through and we start to see a lot of people, particularly in the US, refinancing mortgages and feeling more comfortable with spending, then perhaps the consumer outlook increases to match the current business outlook. But I think if I were watching one thing over the next six months, it would be what are the expectations of rates in terms of what the market's thinking and how that matches up to what various central banks around the world are saying that their intentions are?
Richard Cunningham: Right on. Impressive, gentlemen. That's the markets in, like, 5 to 6 minutes with Tim MacReady and John Coleman. Very impressive. All right. Tim will take us home with this. This is our favorite question to ask on the FDI podcast. What's the Lord been teaching you and in through his word lately. And we'll close with that.
Tim MacReady: So I have spent a lot of time in years past thinking about contentment as the foundation for all Christian financial activity. It's contentment that enables us to be joyfully generous. A discontent person can be generous. They can kind of, through gritted teeth, pull their wallet out and put money in the plate every Sunday. But the biblical command or invitation is not to generosity. It's to joyful generosity. And only a content person can genuinely be joyfully generous. What I've been reflecting on in the last 18 months or so is how much trust leads to contentment. As someone who's kind of studied a lot, both theologically and in investment markets, working in finance. I've thought a lot about trust and contentment. And I thought when we were living in Australia, I'm doing a pretty good job of trusting God to be my provider of not relying on external things. But I can tell you, when you pick up your family and move 8500 miles across the world to another country, it really challenges and things that you thought, yeah, I'm trusting God for that. You realize that? No, it was just that I had a sense of stability and security and having lived in the same house for ten years, and kids have been going to the same school for six years, like, it's actually not that I was necessarily trusting God, but that that sense of stability was there. And so I didn't need to trust. And so we've faced a whole range of situations, from simple things like going to the DMV and getting a driver's license to working out how to buy a car when you don't have a credit history, and all of these kinds of things that have really challenged my sense of stability and contentment and finding in myself that I think that always points back to a trust issue in God, do I trust that he is my Heavenly Father who loves to give good things? Who wants the best for me, and who will give me everything that he has promised? Not everything that I want, but everything that he has promised that he will give. And so I've been doing a lot of thinking and reflecting on that, and just the way that instability shows us where those places where we might have thought we were doing pretty well, but actually our trust might be a bit shallow than we expected.
Richard Cunningham: Wow, Tim. That's good. That's a really good word to close on. Well, friends, this has been Tim MacReady on a faith driven investor. Mark's on the Markets podcast episode. What a joy to have you on. Thank you for the work you're doing through Bright Light to you and your team. This has been exceptional for John Coleman. What a blast, gents. Have a wonderful day and we'll catch you all next time.