Episode 151 - Marks on the Markets: Checking in on 2023 So Far with John Coleman
Subscribe to the Podcast:
Sometimes you just have to flip the script and shake things up, and that’s exactly what we did with this episode.
On a special edition of Marks on the Markets, we play a little musical chairs and put John Coleman, who usually hosts the show, in the hot seat so he can field questions about the state of the markets so far in 2023.
He joins Richard Cunningham to talk about venture, the debt ceiling, AI, public markets, and more. Plus, Richard gives some exciting updates about what’s happening across the movement.
If you like this episode, make sure to follow, review, and share the show.
All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization.
Episode Transcript
Transcription is done by an AI software. While technology is an incredible tool to automate this process, there will be misspellings and typos that might accompany it. Please keep that in mind as you work through it.
Richard Cunningham: Well, good afternoon. Good morning. Wherever you are tuning in, friends, welcome to the Faith Driven Investor Podcast. Welcome specifically to our monthly marks on the Markets segment. We are really grateful to have you joining us today. And now you might be wondering, hey, why does the voice of the host sound far less astute today than it normally does? And if that is the case, you are spot on in your observation. And that is because I am not John Coleman. My name is Richard Cunningham, and I have the privilege of serving on the faith driven, entrepreneur and faith driven investor staffs. And the reason you're not hearing John Coleman is because we have a flip the microphone around today, folks. We are playing a little bit of musical chairs. And John Coleman, your normal faith driven investor podcast host, is in the hot seat today and he will be the interviewee as we dive into this month's segment of Mark's on the market. So your normal host is going to be the one fielding the question today. This is going to be a lot of fun. John how are you, friend? Welcome on.
John Coleman: Yeah. Richard You guys are really scraping the bottom of the barrel. I'm convinced Joey and the producers just wanted to make everyone feel grateful for the real experts that we bring on regularly. And so they thought they'd give them a glimpse of what the world could look like without that expertise by putting me on the mic. So happy to be here today.
Richard Cunningham: You know, most podcast producers are playing checkers. Joey is playing chess. This is an opportunity to say, Hey, let's do the guest orientation. Let's get John Coleman on. And what it will do for future episodes is just something that is just the furthest thing from the case. And here's why. John, everyone knows you and appreciate you as our podcast host. Let's take an opportunity now for people to understand your day job, what you do, a little bit of your background because it is expansive. We love you as a writer, as an investor. Your work at Soveregin's Capital, obviously, but to yourself up a little bit to kind of frame this conversation and just who you are, where you come from, a little bit of your story.
John Coleman: Yeah, absolutely. Richard. So my background is I've spent most of my career between management consulting and investment management. I actually graduated college thinking we were just talking about this before the show started thinking that I'd be a journalist or an academic. I read a lot of liberal arts stuff in college, but somehow bounced into a first job as a quantitative energy hedge fund trader right out of school. I was objectively the world's worst quantitative energy hedge fund trader, and so then quickly moved on to a consulting firm called McKinsey and Company. Spent a few years there before and after graduate school, did business school, Public Policy School, and then before joining Sovereign's, I spent about nine years at a large publicly traded investment manager called INVESCO in a variety of roles, and then about two and a half years ago had the great good fortune to join the team at Sovereign's Capital. Luke and Henry recruited me on as Henry was moving over to do more on the ministry side to help lead Sovereign's alongside Luke. And it's been an amazing ride. It touches on everything I like to do. I love the investment side of the business and I still get to do a little bit of that. I love thinking about the market environment. I love thinking about trends in the industry, including faith driven investing and how that's evolving and how we as faith driven investors can get more sophisticated about that, can really develop the right frameworks to make that a positive thing. And then I have retained some of that liberal arts urge in that I still write a little bit as well. So I've written a few books over time, write a few articles once in a while, and it's a way that I kind of process what I'm learning. So that's a little bit about me.
Richard Cunningham: Man that's fantastic. I know our listeners will love kind of the opportunity. You're the one usually getting to ask that question. Hey, tell us about yourself. Tell us about your journey. And so a rare privilege to get to ask the host what makes up their story. And real quickly, double click on the writing piece, because I know there are just a lot of exciting things happening. In your work with HPR, you released a book recently, a hit that real quickly.
John Coleman: Yeah, absolutely. So I've been writing most of my life. I started back when I was in high school on the school newspaper. So it's just it's something I've always loved to do. I find it really cathartic. I joke some people golf, I'm not very good at golf, so I write as a hobby. I've done a few books over time. My first book was actually a Christian book with Crossway, which is the publisher of the ESV Bible. And then I did two books with the Harvard Business Review, both of them on purpose, meaning Next Generation Leadership, one called Passion and Purpose about 12 years ago, and then one just last year called the HPR Guide to Crafting Your Purpose. And My beat with HPR is really to write about leadership, personal and professional development broadly. That can be about strategy. It can be about the ways in which leaders lead, but it also has a real focus on purpose and meaning. You know, as a person of faith, that's always been incredibly important to me. I've struggled with how do I achieve greater purpose and meaning in the work that I do. It's part of what led me to Sovereign's Capital. Actually, the story for me is I signed up to write The HPR Guide to Crafting Your Purpose in 2019. And in the midst of writing that, it got me thinking about the next phase of my career, about the type of work that I wanted to do, and I figured I'd better take my own advice. And so I ended up joining Sovereign's, helping out with some of the faith driven investor movement. And it's been such a joy. I mean, I feel like I'm achieving more purpose and meaning in the work that I do now than I ever have. And in the latest book has been totally off the wall. I actually wrote a novel called Miracles that hopefully everyone goes out and buys at least ten copies of. There is kind of a Christian book and a novel about what would happen if miracles started happening out in the world today. So on YouTube, on social media, Tik-Tok captured on iPhones. If something undeniable was happening, how would people react? In my my guess throughout writing it was that it would still be really divisive, just like it was in Jesus's time. And so I follow a young woman who's a newspaper reporter as she's covering these miracles, and you get to see the world react around her to these miracles taking place in my home city of Atlanta. And that just came out about five months ago, right at the beginning of the year. So that's a little bit of the writing I've been doing. And then I write a little bit for faith Driven Investor for Christianity Today and a couple of other publications on the topic of faith driven investing.
Richard Cunningham: Awesome. Awesome. Well, you heard it go out and buy miracles. And then I just loved the 2019 testimony of writing about your purpose, and all of a sudden the Lord starts doing the work in you and brings you over to Sovereign's capital. And here we are. We're on Marks on the market. We're talking today, you know, just what's happened inside of 2023. It's been a full five months. And for those that don't know and I'm sure you unpack this a little bit more, you know, Sovereign's Capital is a multi asset investment manager across five asset classes. So you see it across five different verticals, whether it be venture capital, private equity fund investing, real estate and now in the public markets as well. And so with Sovereign's, you've got a vantage point of kind of taking all of this macro data that's happened in in 2023 and seeing it across a wide breadth of strategies. So, you know, before we dive in kind of on an asset class specific kind of rabbit trail of each of those, John, give us some just kind of macro perspective what's happened this year, some of the kind of the key events frame this conversation for us, if you will, and kind of how you're seeing all of that and your vantage point.
John Coleman: Yeah, I think this is one of the most unique macroeconomic periods in any of our adult lifetime. I mean, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who invested through a period that even resembled this. I mean, the closest was probably the late seventies, mid to late seventies, with this intersection of supply chain shocks, global political unrest, high interest rates, raising interest rates, high inflation, potential economic impacts of that, etc. The great financial crisis, obviously in 2007 to 2009 or 2010 had a totally different set of characteristics. It was shocking at first, then led this massive bull run that was supported by extremely low interest rates and extremely easy money. And what we're seeing now is that popping, right? We're seeing an end to that period. We're seeing the restoration of a series of global macroeconomic events, whether it's the rise of China, whether it's the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the international response to that, whether it's all the lingering supply chain issues that were initiated by the COVID crisis, but have continued to filter or on the money side, whether it's the end of this massive expansion of money where the Fed has raised interest rates from effectively 0 to 5.25%, most recently just a dramatic upturn in interest rates, which we then seen manifest in bank failures. Two of the three, I think largest bank failures in US history just over the course the last few months. And it doesn't even feel like that's been one of the more notable stories as you look back given the global pandemic and things like that. And so I think we're in this incredibly unique time. I think given the bank failures where we stand today, I do think the Fed is at or near the end of its interest rate hikes, especially considering that inflation seems to have slowed and begun to decline. Rising inflation and lowering inflation are always lagging. Right. And so there's an art and a science to trying to capture those. And I think from my perspective, the Fed likely has raised interest rates enough, particularly given the instability in the banking sector, which is also cause contractions. I was catching up with our public equities team recently. We're actually seeing a real contraction in M2, the money supply right now, which indicates to us that it's working. Inflation is so persistent. The late seventies taught us this stuff hangs around much longer than you think it will. But the Fed is constantly trying to weigh different factors, which is how much real economic instability and banking instability are we creating? There is a lagging impact. We don't want to overshoot and have the economy fall into two deeper recession. And so they're navigating that right now. I guess we're within 25 basis points of the peak rate unless something goes wrong. And if I had to really guess, they'll stop right now and see what happens. I think what everyone's watching now is the impacts on real economy and whether we fall into. A recession. You know, one of the shocking things about this period from 2021 to present. We thought we would go into recession much faster. Typically, when you raise rates like this, what you're trying to do is provoke a recession, which will end inflation. That recession is accompanied by rising unemployment and a series of other things, and we just haven't seen that yet. We've seen some big tech companies trimming people. We've seen startups starting to trim people, which we can get into, but we haven't seen huge movements in unemployment broadly, and we haven't seen us really slip into a recession yet. And so employment and economic growth has remained more persistent than I think folks thought. Even as asset prices, which we can get to in growth, equity and venture etc., popped big time last year, you know, some of those are coming back now and housing prices have stayed up. And so it's this weird economic environment where I think a lot of the levers that we would typically see being pulled or a lot of the impacts that we would see from those just aren't working like they have historically. And that's one thing that makes asset by asset classes such an interesting environment to look at.
Richard Cunningham: Yeah, those are really, you know, intriguing insights there because what you kind of said there at the end is like some of those levers or those things you would expect to move in tandem, almost feel like they're moving in juxtaposition directions, if you will. And so it's a kind of a first of its kind and, you know, interesting insight. And I think you're right when it comes to, you know, the interest rate and the Fed's and what they're doing, you know, they're next time to convene is June 14th. And you saw this morning in The Wall Street Journal recording this podcast episode on Thursday, June 1st. For those listening, their next time convene is the 14th. And it sounds like, you know, there is some mixture views as to if they will continue the hike in rates. But John, your points, it feels like we are reaching an end, if you will. And then yeah, let's go right there to that specific asset class, the venture. Let's get as close to the action as you can in terms of kind of the earliest stages the founders building at the earliest stages. Talk about just perspectives in the venture capital markets. What you all are seeing, you know, Sovereign's is in, I believe, fund four on a venture side. So this is somewhere you guys have been for almost a decade now, if not more than a decade. So talk there.
John Coleman: Yeah. Venture capital has been such an interesting environment over the last 18 months or so. The venture market went on this incredible bull run from at least the financial crisis. I mean, you could argue back to the dot com bust and then the subsequent recovery. It's been on this remarkable bull run, partially encouraged by these incredibly low interest rates since at least the financial crisis. And that kind of ended at the end of 2021 into the beginning of 2022. You know, we were seeing record deals in venture markets. We were seeing record capital flow into it and all that stopped in 2022. You typically see that begin to impact the publicly traded growth equity and technology firms first, and then that kind of filters through growth equity deals on the private side down that kind of Series B and C down to kind of early stage seed in Series A, And the question was always, will those trickling impacts really get all the way down to seed in Series A and start to impact those valuations? Or will the economy recover fast enough that you might not see as much of an impact there? I think we're seeing a mixed bag right now. Obviously, public markets got just destroyed last year. A number of growth equity stocks were down really substantially. I mean, you've got stocks that are down 70, 80, 90% or more sometimes from their highs over the course of 2022 and that trickle down into growth equity markets. We had a partner show us some statistics probably four months ago now. So it might be a little out of date where the average growth equity multiple. So that's private deals. But nearing public markets, typically pre-IPO investment in private markets had gone from something like 14 to 14 and a half times revenue in 2021, all the way down to about five times revenue. So about a two thirds drop in 2022. And that was beginning to trickle down into the early stage venture markets. I think that's continued. Compounding that, the banking trouble that happened earlier this year had a disproportionate impact on venture and venture backed companies. You know, Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic and Signature Bank were all three, some of the biggest supporters of venture capital markets in the market. And so venture firms and their portfolio companies were directly impacted, but it also led to a dry up in the venture debt markets, right, Because Silicon Valley Bank and Signature, for example, were two of the leaders in venture debt. And so some of the capital that you would typically see available to venture firms outside of equity raises dried up, even as fundraising has dried up a lot. And so what we are seeing in early stage venture right now is valuations definitely have stabilized. We're not seeing quite as dramatic a series of drops, I think, early stage as we do late stage in venture, but it's definitely come down. We're definitely seeing a lot more companies being very judicious about their cash, trying to extend their cash runway 18 to 24 months venture. Firms are encouraging them to raise additional cash, even if they have to do a flat round or a slightly down round to secure themselves against the prolongation of this dry up in funding for venture. And it's just a really tough market. Now the other side of that, which we may get to in public markets shortly, is that the public markets in technology have suddenly begun to recover. And so this year you look at the S&P 500 is up about 10%. The Nasdaq is up about 25%. And if you look at the S&P, it's really been a rally in megacap technology stocks that has led that. If you take out the seven best performing mega-cap tech stocks, the s&p is actually down for the year. And so they've driven this 10% outperformance of the entire index. So that's a little bit on what we're seeing in venture. We think it's an opportune time to be looking in venture and to be investing because we do think it's stabilized a lot. We do think there's the ability to do great deals right now, but we're also just like everyone else, encouraging portfolio companies to be very thoughtful about their cash.
Richard Cunningham: And that's what I was going to ask you. There is is first off, these are just remarkable insights. So the question I'm going to ask you there is, you know, Sovereign's capital in the venture space led by Jake Thompson, see the series a investor. And when you net it all out and you think about all of the competing factors, you know, the venture debt market, you know, almost drying up the fund raising trail, it feels like there's just a remarkable number of funds that market right now kind of hunting that same capital from institutional investors, family offices, what have you. Who is at the advantage, you know, is the valuations coming down to the benefit of the venture investor. Is this just a remarkably difficult time for everyone involved? You mentioned this is a good time to invest. How how are you all looking at it right now? Just kind of from your perspective?
John Coleman: Yeah, liquidity is light in the markets right now. Fund raising, if you're a venture firm, is very hard fundraising. If you're a venture backed firm, is really hard raising your seed round or series A, you know, it's just not as explosive as it used to be. It's taking two or three times as long. We're seeing a lot of venture and growth Equity funds delay their fundraisers because of that environment. So definitely liquidity has dried up. You know, our perspective right now is you can never perfectly timed these things right. There are some folks who are just entirely sitting out this period. The challenge with that is if you miss the initial upside of a turn in these sorts of markets, it tends to be pretty damaging to overall returns. Just like, you know, in public markets, you always hear catching the five worst down days is 90% of the losses in the five biggest up days is 90% of the gains. You know, something on that order, you can't really time a lot of the venture markets. So our perspective is just to remain really steady. Right now. We've reset our expectations on what the valuations of these rounds are going to be. We find that because liquidity is a little light in markets, there are a greater variety of deals. So deal flow is looking really good right now because there are a lot of deals that are looking for capital to sustain them through this period and that's great. But it also means that we have to be very thoughtful about evaluating the quality of those deals. Given that the future is uncertain, the near-term future is uncertain. That said, I think, you know, we are moving forward in a steady way on the investment side because we do see really good companies out there and really good valuations. And ironically, I think some of this can actually be good for the venture backed companies as well. And this is my personal perspective, Jake or Phil, who lead our venture fund, might have a slightly different perspective. You know, I think the valuations that we were seeing were making it very hard in tech world because options were constantly under water. People were convinced as talent that they weren't going to get the value of their options because valuations were too high. And so it was actually difficult to get and retain talent if you were a big venture backed company before. I think that's recovering a little bit, especially as labor markets in tech have gotten tighter. And I think this is encouraging some discipline that's healthy for early stage companies as well. You know, before it was all revenue, even the revenue was all subscriber growth or it was all user growth. And then sometimes it was revenue growth. And now I think there has been this realization that, wait a minute, these companies have to make money at some point again. And so there's more of a cost discipline, more of a planning discipline than I've seen in some time. And I think overall that's really healthy for the market and I think it's healthy for those venture back companies in the market, though it can seem painful in the moment.
Richard Cunningham: Well-said. Yeah, a little bit of a reshift in what fundamentals, what things do we have the microscope on and should the bull's eye be, you know, shifting appropriately at an appropriate level, if you will. All right. Well, let's go venture before we go into private equity and real estate and kind of transition markets and asset classes, let's see the maturity of venture kind of into the public markets. You leaned on it a little bit. And what's happened in the S&P this year and NASDAQ as well. Any commentary on the public markets? And one of the things that, you know, I think everyone. Is reading any type of headline as focused on, you know, go up into the kind of the congressional ranks. Right now, we've got this debt ceiling crisis. Some people are throwing that word around there. There's, you know, just bipartisan efforts to try to pass a bill that kind of potentially prevent any type of crisis. So any commentary there and what you're seeing in the public markets and what's going on and how this debt ceiling situation and the approaching ex date that Congress has tossed around.
John Coleman: Yeah, obviously super hot topic right now. I want to make one kind of 60 seconds comment before I get into that even is the Faith Driven Investor podcast. One thing I would note is this is an awesome opportunity for people of faith who are venture investors to support their founders spiritually, mentally. This is a super stressful time. I'm kind of talking about the potential silver linings and things like that for venture investors, for limited partners and certainly for founders. This is a really, really stressful time and we are seeing some companies that simply don't make it right, which is always true in venture, but I think we're acutely aware of it now. And my encouragement to the folks that are listening is, you know, if you're a venture backed founder, lean into your real identity. You know, our identity is in Christ. It's not in the money that we make. It's not even in the success of our companies that we want to do well by those who have backed us. And if you're an investor, whether a limited partner or a fund. Never forget the spiritual component of this and never forget that even in the midst of difficult decisions, sometimes, you know, we're called to be good counselors to others and encouragers to others. And there are ways you can do that even while making tough business decisions. And so I think for faith driven investors, that's important to remember as we dovetail into the public markets in this big macro fight, it looks like the debt ceiling fight is over. So again, we're recording this June 1st. This week, they had announced that McCarthy and Biden had reached a deal, I believe it was yesterday that it finally passed through the House. It ended up that it had more Democratic support than Republican support, which was a surprise. There is a lot of criticism on all sides right now. It is one of the most bipartisan deals I've seen lately in the sense that, you know, basically everything we see right now is either know, 100% Republican against 100% Democrat or vice versa. This was mixed. It was mixed, Right. I don't think anyone's happy because it was a compromise solution. But I believe they reached a deal to extend through 2025. And so the immediate term crisis of potentially defaulting on the debt has subsided. It's over. People were worried about that and it was delaying deals. I think it really it caused some tumult in public markets. But public markets have been super interesting this year. There have been a couple of runs that have really defined them public markets over the last five months. I mentioned one earlier, which is these technology based mega-cap stocks that just got crushed last year have been on an incredible run. I did pull up a couple of statistics this morning because I'm a nerd, but I mentioned the Nasdaq's up about 25, S&P is up ten. The S&P would be negative without the seven biggest movers in tech rally. And if you look at those and this is not an endorsement of any of these companies, I'm just reading off statistics. Apple has been up 36% this year. Microsoft, which obviously did the deal with chatGPT Open ai to incorporate AI, which is a huge thing, up 37%, alphabet up 39%, Amazon up 44%, NVIDIA, which is effectively the chipmaker behind all the artificial intelligence right now, up 159% this year, 159%, Meta up 120%, Tesla up 66% this year. And those seven stocks have effectively created all the gains in the S&P 500 this year. That's interesting because some of that is simply a reversal of some of the losses last year. Some of that is a flight to quality where these mega-cap stocks, the ones that I mentioned, are largely profitable companies that we know are sustainable, that aren't going to disappear. I think the growth stocks that are still mostly underwater, those without profitability, where they're still struggling to get margin, where the companies I read off by and large are not. And then there's been an interesting artificial intelligence angle to this where, you know, I talked to a lot of people right now and they think artificial intelligence is the biggest thing since the Internet. And I would probably agree actually, this is probably the biggest thing to happen in markets in at least 25, 30 years in AI has the potential to fundamentally transform life right in the way that the Internet did, maybe even more. And so what you're seeing is companies that may benefit from that, they're in the mix for that are just exploding like Nvidia, like Microsoft. And I think that's going to be a persistent theme. The other side of that is that for the first time in a while, Smallcaps have really lagged the mega-cap especially so we've seen. Huge headwinds in small caps. And if you look at the statistics right now, I talked to Matt just in our public equity teams, you know, small caps look like a value for the first time in a while. Right now, they're undervalued relative to the large cap stocks. And so if you're looking at markets, there's been a run in growth recently after the big collapse last year, but there might be some value to be had moving down market to small and mid-cap stocks.
Richard Cunningham: I mean, there's a lot there, you know, you talk to NVIDIA and just kind of the the AI frenzy that is taking place. I believe NVIDIA touched $1,000,000,000,000 market capitalization, which is just staggering, shocking when you think about it.
John Coleman: Has like an Nvidia tattoo. I think I saw somewhere.
Richard Cunningham: Sovereign's capital tattoo.
John Coleman: Who says I don't have one? Richard So.
Richard Cunningham: That's awesome. So one of the directions I want to go quickly before we kind of have you speak to what Sovereign's is doing in the public markets and kind of some final commentary there is, you know, Faith driven investor podcast. You made the remarkable comments just in terms of the opportunity for investors to lean in with more than just capital in this season, specifically in the venture markets, those that are angel investors, venture capitalists, that you have an opportunity here to be the hands and feet to love God, love neighbor in a very real way. You know, it is for founders who are experiencing a lot of pressure and and kind of on the front lines of what is a tougher time talk about, you know, from a faith driven investor lens, the AI frenzy. There's a lot of people who are sitting there and saying job replacement, the ethics that can be at play here in terms of how far AI can go. Any commentary or insights there? In a ways, you kind of are looking at that.
John Coleman: Yeah. Wow, such a good question. I haven't thought a ton about the intersection of the Faith and AI component. I would say, and this is a personal perspective, so not everything I say certainly is on behalf of FDI or Sovereign's. I think being a person of faith means that I don't have to get quite as worried about technology trends as some people seem to. You know, that's good. I think, A, if you believe that Christianity is true, then we are in touch with fundamental truth about human nature that are not going to change. Right? God is sovereign. He has a plan, right? We are following that plan. He has plans for the world are beyond our comprehension. But I don't think we fundamentally have much to fear either in scientific discovery, because ultimately that's always going to align with the truth that we know or in technological innovation, because he is sovereign. And, you know, even if AI ended up eating the world and one day the world may end and nuclear crises could in the world, you know, we have confidence that our future is secure because of our faith. And so I probably tend to be a little less alarmist about those sorts of trends in general. I also think from a practical perspective, every time we've had a panic about technology ruining employment, making life more difficult, etc., it's proven false. It's factually never been true in the history of human nature. So if you go back to the Industrial Revolution, what was it? It was Captain Swing or something. There were all these movements basically where workers of the world were just like raiding factories and destroying factory equipment because they thought it would put everyone out of work and that employment would skyrocket. Only the owners of the factory equipment would effectively have any future. And of course, that didn't end up true, right? The Industrial Revolution had bumps. It certainly had many negative sides, but at the end of the day, what it actually did was relieved a lot of individuals of incredibly grueling manual labor that was unsafe and improved worker safety standards. It opened up freedom of movement for workers to do more innovative and exciting things over time. The Internet revolution did the same thing right. The automobiles and airplanes that we invented did the same thing, electricity did the same thing. So if I had to guess, artificial intelligence will dramatically shift the economic landscape. It will be a difficult adjustment in the near term, but it will ultimately help improve humanity's ability to pursue the things that they love. It might even make our lives easier, like most technological periods in the past. I do think that raises a spiritual crisis, right? Because if you look at markets or if you look out at studies right now, we're the most prosperous, the most safe, the most healthy we've ever been in the history of the world, ten, 20,000 years, history of humanity. And yet statistics on happiness, loneliness, purpose are all pointing in the wrong direction. We're seeing statistics come out right now about, tragically, things like suicidal ideation among teenage girls, loneliness and depression, mental health issues among people of all ages. And all of this prosperity has not helped that it's actually maybe made it worse. And there are underlying factors for that. And so I think the real spiritual challenge of the age might be how do we deal with the spiritual crisis that can erupt when societies become prosperous, when they become less in need of God, when leisure time increases and when people start to lose hope? How do we deal with that? Spiritual crisis. So I'm much more worried about that than I am an economic crisis on the back of AI.
Richard Cunningham: Really, really good comments. All the more reason to go back to the point you made at the beginning about this of the worship of a sovereign God. Anything happening on this planet did not happen by surprise to him. It did not pass through his hands as a surprise. He didn't miss this one. And all the more reason to go back to that sovereign God and ask for his will, his design for our specific stories, and then beyond that, our companies investments as a byproduct of that kind of overflow. So great comments. Thank you. Well, hey, I want to close on the public markets and we've hit on AI we've hit on what's happening with these mega-cap stocks, just kind of what's happening at Sovereign's Capital in the way you are specifically investing in the public markets. I know this is a newer strategy for Sovereign's. It's been a really exciting one. Couple of comments there and then we'll move into, you know, the real estate market. In the private equity market.
John Coleman: I won't get specific just because of [...] limitations on this. Maybe I'll make a couple of general comments, Richard, just about my outlook on public markets. And I think our outlook, you know, one of the other interesting trends and this will dovetail into the FDI conversation, I want to get your update on where faith driven investing stands as well. I'd love to have a dialog about that. Marks on the market today, June 1st, the last 12 to 18 months, we've seen the biggest push back in the mainstream values investing movement, which is basically synonymous with the ESG movement in decades. Right. 23 years ago, ESG was almost nothing. I think now it's somewhere around $35 trillion. I looked at the latest statistics. It's been booming. I mean, sometimes doubling in a given year, although that's slowed a bit. The growth in ESG declined 76% in 2022. And there's been this massive pushback from the left or from some people that has been a pushback against greenwashing or justice washing this idea that ESG is really a commercial grift, you know, it's not authentic from centrist or slightly right leaning groups. You see push back on performance. ESG is hampering performance. It's not in the fiduciary interest of folks or asset managers are voting ESG stuff without telling their constituents that they're doing it. Denying them that choice is the wrong thing to do. And then I think people on the political right or sometimes people of faith have pushed back on the nature of the policies embedded within ESG, that they're more progressive politically. They've been very focused on things like climate diversity, social justice, so to speak, those sorts of things. And there's been a pushback on the political right. And so ESG has actually began to retract. And I think correspondingly, awareness of ESG and values investing is the highest it's ever been, the highest it's ever been. I think five years ago, the average investor didn't know much about this. It was driven by institutions and asset managers. Now everybody knows about it. I think that is a massive opening in private and public markets. To do something different is, I think, the right way to push back. If people want to push back on ESG, it's not to simply say all this is wrong, right? We want to get rid of it. Because to get rid of something, you have to replace it with something. I think it's an amazing time to posit a positive vision for the future, to say these are the things we don't like about the existing mainstream approach. But here is a way that we can create love of neighbor and human flourishing in companies in real estate developments. Here's what is fundamental about our faith and what that implies for human flourishing. How to make people's lives better, which is what faith driven investors want to do, right? We want to make their lives better because of love of neighbor. And how can we begin to advocate that in public and private markets? That's what we focus on every day, is how can we advocate for human flourishing, love of God, love of neighbor in the companies and real estate developments that we work with and do so in such a way that leads to outperformance because we believe great cultures are the greatest competitive advantage in business and they have the opportunity to outperform if done well. And so I think my hope right now is because of all this awareness to be the pushback against ESG, people are now more aware of the impacts of their capital, good and bad, in the world. We say all investing is impact investing, right? Just what impact you're having. And I think our opportunity as faith driven investors in public and private markets is to redefine what values investing looks like, to really set a new standard for what can authentically create human flourishing in the marketplace, and to do so in a way that continues to unleash the innovative and economic power, the creative power of capitalism, which I think is not necessarily in conflict with those things. And so I know that's not specifically an answer to the public equities question, Richard, but that's kind of where my head is at right now. And what I think the massive opportunity for us and for others in this space is at the moment.
Richard Cunningham: I think that's fantastic commentary, John, because I think what you're advocating there I think is really a good conviction push to our listeners, to our audience is saying, hey, unlike ever before in history. There is an axis of information, there is a proximity to the investment process and methodology that otherwise might not have existed. You know, I'm Joe and Jane Smith, and I invest with my financial advisor and I kind of leave all of the decisions up to them. And I trust that my financial advisors, a good guy or good gal who has my best interest in mind, there is now an opportunity to get as close as you can under the hood as possible and look under that hood and say, Hey, what am I in? What am I actively deployed in? And like you said, there's been pushback to ESG. You know, just this morning, Delta was sued for greenwashing and a massive kind of class action lawsuit. And there'll be, you know, multiple years of that playing out. But you're starting to see kind of mainstream media wake up to the fact of like, oh, we really pushed this hard. And so what is that alternative? What is that replacement is faith driven investors like you're saying there is a real call to stewardship here, a real call to have the information is accessible, unlike it probably was ever before for you to lean and understand, Hey, this movement of this dollar pushing this capital towards something is almost an endorsement. It's impact investing. So what kind of impact do I want to have? You know, whose hands I'm going to leave that impact? And so I appreciate your commentary there. All right.
John Coleman: So what are you saying? I mean, you sit at the center of the world here as part of faith driven investor. What are you markets right now? What do you think is happening?
Richard Cunningham: I mean, that's a world class question. I appreciate you asking, know, quick commentary. I would have, as you know, our one of our co-founders, Henry Kaestner, who I know many of you know on the face you're an Entrepreneur podcast, is on the feature and investor podcast as well. He's in Africa right now, and by no means is this an advocacy that the only faith driven investing can happen in emerging markets and frontier markets in places like Africa? But we were talking this morning on the phone this the encouragement he has from the people who are flocking to this concept in an economy like Africa, you know, the big four markets in Africa are Lagos, Nigeria, Nairobi, Kenya, Cairo, Egypt, and then is kind of broadly South Africa. The youth on this continent, like if you look at that kind of population demographic and how much of Africa's massive population is concentrated at the younger end of the spectrum and how many of these people are well-educated, coming out of school but then do not have access to work because of just a work shortage crisis taking place in Africa. The youth in Africa are building. They're in the entrepreneurial space. They're showing up by the hundreds to faith driven entrepreneur events, which is just such an incredible encouragement. And then what I believe is even more encouraging from kind of the faith driven investor aspect is the local capital, the local skin in the game, The folks that want to say, Hey, I want to back what's taking place in my backyard. It's no longer that an African entrepreneur or a Southeast Asia based entrepreneur has to fly to New York, has to fly to San Francisco as really the only source of capital. There are leaders in their own economies who can be those friends and family investors, who can be those angel investors. And so that's one aspect that is just remarkably encouraging is just what's taking place in emerging and frontier markets, the innovation, the building, you know, the ai frenzy, the Internet, kind of democratizing availability to technology is something that's remarkably encouraging. I'd say another trend and I'll finish here is just we talked about this earlier in the podcast as the number of funds and markets just led by exceptional Christ followers who have something inside their thesis that it really gravitates you in from a faith driven investing standpoint. So, you know, sovereign's, you all invest explicitly in Christ following owners and operators because you believe the best cultures are set forth by those leaders. And there's alpha to be had there. There's other fund managers and funds out there and market who are investing in what we're calling the great wealth transfer. Now there's going to be $60 trillion handed down from really the baby boomer generation into this next millennial, Gen Z, Gen-Y gen X, next generation. And what's also being passed down in that great wealth transfer is a number of Main Street businesses and it's people waking up to the fact of like, well, this is a rare and privileged opportunity to go and acquire these family owned businesses with great legacies that employ dozens, if not hundreds of people. We can go in and compensate the baby boomer for really a job well done at a really healthy, fair. You know, Ebro multiple, whatever it might be kind of in the private markets. And then we can now operate that business, keeping those values intact. And so there's a number of those funds and markets out there saying, hey, let's be the next generation, next next kind of owners, if you will, of the baton that's being passed. So I think that's really exciting. I think there's a huge push to philanthropy and generosity unlike we have ever seen. Folks are waking up to the incredible tools within the donor advice fund markets and things of that nature. And a lot of that wealth that's transferring is being passed down in a state that's being passed down in charitable vehicles. And so people are saying, hey, what am I waking up to that I'm uniquely called to that. Now I have $500,000 in this trust that I can't access for my family, but I could potentially access for good in the world, whether that be impact investing, whether that be giving to that charity that I'm extremely passionate about. So that be kind of my general commentary around. FDI and what's happening in the world of faith driven investing. And I think the last thing I would say is this is not a prescriptive or presumptuous movement. Faith driven investing is just as much backing an early stage entrepreneur and their very beginning stages of growth as it is being a financial adviser, walking alongside families. And they're primarily invested in the public markets because they aren't an accredited investor, a qualified purchaser. They're kind of the retail investor who just wants to be an excellent steward with what they have in their 41 K or their IRA. And so I think that's just as much the faith driven investing conversation.
John Coleman: And let me take a moment to pitch Richard's incredible platform, which is if you think that sounds interesting to an investor now has a series of small groups you can be a part of, you go to the website and sign up on those. Richard and team have created genuinely one of the most fascinating libraries of content. I think out there. Experts that we've had around the Finny Kuruvilla all over the world, the Andy Crouch is of the world, you know, etc. Shundrawn Thomas, all these awesome, awesome people who are in investment management. And I think you guys do a great job of supporting those who want to lean into this with content like the small groups which people can sign up for, of creating content that help to educate people and also just highlighting the amazing people in the space because there are many more Christians who are very serious about their work as investors and very serious about their faith. And people realize, I think you can clearly see to think that investments is a space without that kind of moral compass. And Richard, you and I know that we meet people at all these amazing firms. We just have Brent Beshore for permanent equity, Marcus Stroud from TXV. We've had Evan Beyer from Warren Capital and Victor Hugh from Lumos and all these other folks. And they're just amazing firms out there doing the right thing. And I think a kudos to you, Richard, for creating a platform. I think that's so adept at helping people to lean into their faith as they invest.
Richard Cunningham: Appreciate that, John. I think the the commentary I'd give there is this is a it's a big, large conversation and faith driven investing for us as Christ followers. We do not want to put a box around it and limit, you know, what the Holy Spirit can do in the work of someone's life and what that actually plays out in terms of how they run their business. As the entrepreneur of the faith, you're an entrepreneur. And then also how they steward capital is the faith driven investor. And so to the groups portion of what you're talking about, that's a lifetime of wrestling to come up with that maybe investment thesis as a family, as a fund manager, as someone who stewarding capital, as an advisor, or maybe just your everyday kind of personal angel investor, It's a lifetime of wrestling. So that's what these groups are for. That's what our website, this podcast, these resources that we produce, are forced to essentially help you take that first step of, Hey, what is practically getting in the game look like for me and my spouse, my family, my children, you know, the generational impact I want to have. And so I appreciate your kind words there, but we are coming up on a close here before I have our kind of legendary FDI question where we get to ask you. So plant a seed here about what you're learning in scripture. Real quick commentary on anything you're saying specifically just in the private equity markets and the real estate markets. And then we'll close.
John Coleman: Yeah, absolutely. I'll just touch on real estate briefly. What a confusing real estate market right now. No kidding. No kidding.
John Coleman: We're all waiting on pins and needles to see what happens in office, in retail right now, with rates resetting, with leases resetting. I think I'm nervous about that space in housing, single-family housing and multifamily housing. There was this COVID boom in home prices, the greatest gap between median home price and median income in the history of the United States. We all thought rising interest rates, which have effectively doubled the cost of owning a home because of mortgage rates, would lead to falling house prices. But what's happened is because no one's selling their houses and there's a structural shortage, even though it's more expensive to buy a house. With mortgage rates rising, the prices have not come down because no one's selling. So the supply is incredibly limited. And so I think private equity is going full steam ahead right now. You know, leverage is has been a problem. If you were a private equity firm banking on leverage to help you do deals, I think you're in trouble if you're more operationally focused. And I think a lot of private equity is doing well. I think real estate is a very intriguing sector right now, let's say, because the dynamics with interest rates, with office occupancy, with a structural housing shortage, have just created some of the most fascinating moments in markets that I can remember.
Richard Cunningham: Yeah, that's right. That's really well. So one of the things I sit there and think is, you know, if I'm a homeowner right now and I bought ten, 15 years ago, whatever it might have been, and I was, you know, buying it with almost free money, a two, 3% interest rate, why would I ever want to go refinance? Why would I want to sell in this environment to go now lock in a new 30 year fixed mortgage at 7% or 6%, whatever the new kind of going rate is that's available in your local financing context. But then I drive around here in Austin, Texas, where I'm based, and there's for sale signs everywhere. Once again, it's kind of those those levers you would expect to move in tandem feel juxtaposed. And I think you're right, we're all kind of waiting on pins and needles to see what plays out. So. John, That is remarkable commentary from top to bottom. I know for your listeners there, we hit a lot of markets. We went from venture to private equity to real estate. We touched on what's all happening in ai the public markets. John, of course, hits all of it with just excellence. He is far more than just a podcast host. He's proven himself a capable guest. And so, John, we'll close here. What's the Lord teaching you in scripture? Take us home there. That's an encouraging word of what God's kind of showing you on that side.
John Coleman: Well, the good news, Richard, is anything that I got wrong today, I'm going to hear from the various leaders of our teams within 24 hours of airing about all the statistics I got wrong. So, you know, caveat emptor, the passages that a few of my partners and I have been lingering on lately is Luke 16, 11 through 12, which people know is the true riches passage. It says if then you have not been faithful in unrighteous wealth, Mammon money, right? Money. Who will entrust you with true riches? And if you've not been faithful in that which is in others, who will give to you that which is your own. And really, I've been trying to reflect on this passage in in effectively two ways. One is this is a call to be faithful in the stewardship of wealth, particularly the wealth of others. Right. Which is the game that we are in. This is my profession is how do I try and take money that others have worked very hard for that supports their retirement, their missions, their charitable giving, and try and help them get a return on them that allows them to do more good work. Right. So it is a conviction that we as stewards of our own wealth and of others wealth, need to take that very seriously. It is also a reminder that money is not true riches. I think the easiest thing to get sucked into when you're in the investment world, I see this among wealthy people. I see this among professional investors. Wealth managers is you keep score with money. It's easy to measure, it's easy to manage. Your world, start to become money. You start to view that as something more important than it is. I saw a shocking Wall Street Journal ORC poll just a few weeks ago that people now in the United States value money more than religion, more than community, more than their profession, more than patriotism, more than this host of other things. They value and trust money more now. And I think that's part of this hollowing out of society that we're struggling with. Money has always been a tool. Money is a great servant and a poor master. And the Bible talks to us a lot about serving money, but it warns about almost nothing more than the love of money, right. And being a servant to money. And so we've been reflecting on that passage a lot. This idea of true riches, both in terms of how can we be better stewards, but also how can we keep front and center for us and for those that we serve? That money is actually not a good measure of value. That money is not true riches in the Christian faith. That money has a role to play as a tool, but it never touches on what's so unique about our Christian faith in the eternity that we're targeting. And so I think that passage is one that my partners and I are batting around, and it's one that I'm trying to kind of reflect on and understand. And I think it's one that all people of faith, all people of means should really take seriously in terms of what it calls us to do on both sides of the equation.
Richard Cunningham: Man John Coleman, that's a fantastic word. Let's reframe the conversation. Let's move the balls out of faithfulness and let's get it off of money as the scorecard. And so, John Coleman, thank you for being on the day of.