Episode 194 - Marks on the Markets: Tariffs, Uncertainty & Threading the Needle with Bob Doll
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Veteran market strategist Bob Doll unpacks the fifth fastest market correction since WWII and what's driving today's economic uncertainty. Gain insights on tariff strategy, recession probability, and how to position your portfolio during these turbulent times. Faith Driven Investors will appreciate Bob's wisdom on markets alongside his reflections on patience and humility.
Please note that the views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Faith Driven Investor.
All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization.
Episode Transcript
Transcription is done by an AI software. While technology is an incredible tool to automate this process, there will be misspellings and typos that might accompany it. Please keep that in mind as you work through it.
Intro [00:00:00] You're listening to Faith Driven Investor, a podcast that highlights voices from a growing movement of Christ-following investors who believe that God owns it all and cares deeply about the heart posture behind our stewardship. Thanks for listening.
Intro [00:00:17] Hey, everyone, all opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed. And this podcast is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization. Thanks for listening.
Richard Cunningham [00:00:44] Welcome back, everyone, to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor Podcast. Awesome to have you with us. It is the beginning of April. It has been a wild start to the year in the markets, to say the least. Just a little bit of volatility and uncertainty. We'll use the T word today, which is tariffs, I'm sure, many times. And we'll get into that. It's been long overdue for us to do just a proper kind of macro look at the markets and the economy. And because of that, we have brought in the big guns of market commentary to join us. So we are joined by the one and only Bob Doll from CrossMark. John Coleman, it's great to have you back in the co-host seat, as I know it's been a couple of weeks since we've had you in the FDI podcast co- host seat. And so gentlemen, welcome onto the pod. Great to have your guys with us. John, we'll start with you as a quick hello and then we'll go over to Bob.
John Coleman [00:01:28] Yeah, Richard, so great to see you. It is such an interesting and fun time in markets. And I'll tell you, it's always fun when I get to appear alongside Bob Dahl. Bob is obviously a hero of mine in the industry. I think he's a hero, a lot of other people, someone I admire so deeply, one of the smartest guys in investments today, always a great communicator. So I just feel privileged to be here. You said the big guns, and I'm viewing that as like, there's one really small gun, and then Bob has enough big guns for all of us. So. I'm super excited to hear what he has to say today.
Bob Doll [00:01:59] Well, my privilege to be part of this as well, gents. It's a crazy world we live in. Thankfully, we have a God on the throne who knows all the answers. And we take a stab at it, and sometimes we get it right, and oftentimes we get wrong, but we have fun in the process.
Richard Cunningham [00:02:16] Amen to that. Well, Bob, it's great to have you. Hey, the last time we had you was almost this time last year on the Faiths of an Investor podcast and you graciously unpacked your kind of 2024 expectations and predictions as at that time we were one quarter into the year. Here we are one quarter into 2025. It's maybe that's a great place to start is if you go back in the time machine a little bit and just kind of reflect on 24. I mean, you had another solid year of kind of predictions as that dovetails in and sets the stage for what we have seen kind of. here in Q1 of 2025. They're recording this for everyone's context on April 1st. I know April 2nd is quite a big day, quote unquote liberation day, as we kind of find out what Trump's tariff policy will be. So we're missing that by roughly 24 hours. But Bob, let's go back and look at 24 as we kinda set the stage for what's happened here in q1 of 25.
Bob Doll [00:03:05] Sure. It seems like forever ago that we came out with our 24 predictions. I guess I'd sum up. First of all, our outside grader gave us a seven out of 10. So not a bad year. Nice. Having said that to be a bit and appropriately self-critical, we were too cautious as many people were both about the economy and risk asset stocks in particular, the economy chugged along. I think the underestimation on many of our parts. was how much power there was in the money. That is to say, post COVID, the excess savings that high end consumers had accumulated because they didn't spend money during COVID and lower end consumers receiving multiple checks from the government and spending that over time. The tail on that lasted through much of 2024, gave us a good economy and a second year row of stocks going up 25%, Pretty amazing.
John Coleman [00:04:04] Yeah, and I would just add, like Bob, I probably approached 2024 too conservatively and across asset classes, some in fact behaved a little more conservatively than others, certainly public markets did not behave very conservatively in 2024. And particularly the Magnificent 7 had a run that would have been difficult to predict, I think at the beginning of the year, just a historic run, so to speak. And as we head into 2025, Bob and I were chuckling about this before we started. You know, one of the themes I'm paying attention to, and perhaps he is, is just volatility and uncertainty. And it's a constellation of things for me that are coming together. And I know this isn't an exhaustive list, but right now we're sitting on the precipice of some world-changing technologies. And so we've got this unpredictable, rapidly evolving technological landscape that includes artificial intelligence, but isn't restricted to that. And those technologies are gonna be quite disruptive. We're sitting, and I know we'll dig into this, at a uniquely disruptive political moment. I think the Trump administration was intended to be disruptive as a political movement. The speed at which they've operated and the number of things they've taken on is probably faster than almost any of us predicted, and so more disrupted, for better or worse, than we might have predicted. And then there's all this movement in the underlying economy and financial assets, right? where we did have a pretty heated market in 2024. Valuations are reasonably aggressive, at least in parts of the market right now. Housing prices actually kind of stayed up despite the fact that interest rates were going up and there was a slowdown in the market. And so there's this continued threat of inflation in the background that I think people are still continue to worry about, but also this interesting situation where, depending on what part of markets you're looking at, there is still pretty rich valuations in parts to those markets and how those will react. to the underlying economy, to technological disruption, to all this political disruption. You know, you add those things together on top of other things that may occur, and I think it's gonna be quite an interesting year.
Bob Doll [00:06:05] Yeah, I add to that or amplify some of it, John, one of our predictions this year is increased volatility. You know, we had no idea coming into the year it would be this volatile, the VIX comfortably averaging over 20, which most people know that's a pretty high number for a full three month period. We'll see if it lasts. And the cause is uncertainty. Risk assets, stocks, hate uncertainty. And we've served up, the administration has served up a bunch of it. I would argue it's not just we don't know what the tariffs are going to look like. It's the volatility of the commentary. I'm going to do a tariff today, I might not do it tomorrow. It's 5% on Tuesday, it's 10% on Thursday, and this constant churn creates uncertainty. And when people have uncertainty, they pull their horns in. If you're a business, you think about not hiring a person or two, you might be thinking of hiring. that new project, you say, let's just pause on that. And if you're an individual, you say, you know, maybe we should not plan that big vacation we were dreaming about for this summer. Maybe we need to just cut back a bit till we know the lay of the land. And you're right, John, it's mainly about tariffs. But it's also about inflation, the tax cut, are we going to get it, a whole raft of things. Geopolitics, we haven't even talked about that yet. So this uncertainty... is creating economic weakness. And if we don't curtail the uncertainty, we'll end up in a recession. And look, I say, observing them over many years, businesses can deal with bad news. What they can't deal with is uncertainty. They just don't know how to plan. So we're stuck in that. One more comment on the good things you said of the Magnificent Seven and AI. You know, we've, in my view, hit a watershed moment. AI stocks, the Magnificent 7, just cleaning up on everything until a few months ago. And what's changed? The answer is their earnings growth is slowing to still good levels, but more importantly, their cash flow is definitively decelerating. As they spend, I mean, the top three companies in AI declared in January, they're going spend an incremental $200 billion on AI. and that just takes money out of their cash flow, and cash flow moves stocks even more than earnings do. So I think the broader theme here is equal weighted portfolios be cap weighted portfolials, mega cap stocks lag. I mean, I saw a stat, it's an estimate so far that about 80% of managers beat their benchmark in the first quarter. When the mega cap stock are running the table, it's really hard to beat the benchmark. When they're lagging, you have a much better chance as most asset managers are more equally weighted in a probe. So a couple of PS's to your becoming.
Richard Cunningham [00:09:04] Yeah, so let's maybe let's go markets, Bob, and kind of start there and double click on all that we've been seeing. So I mean, you highlighted in this great paper that your team put out, crossroads or crosshairs, just kind of addressing head-on the uncertainty, the tariffs, everything that's been going down right now that this has been the fifth fastest correction since World War II that we're seeing in Q1. So maybe kind of double click into the magnitude of the correction we've seen. I mean S&P 500 kind of to date where we're recording this is down, you know, just over 4% year to date. The Russell 2000, so kind of your small cap index is down almost 10% year to date. Kind of global, like macro look at the markets, Russell 3000 down 5% as well. Where are we kind of from a market footing standpoint as we deal with all the uncertainty and just the correction that's taken place? Are we at the bottom? I know we're not here to predict markets entirely, but what's kind of your general sentiment right now?
Bob Doll [00:09:54] So the rude awakening is, as you probably know, six weeks ago, the US stock market was at an all-time high. It is hard to believe. Wasn't long ago. No, it wasn't. I mean, enthusiasm and hope that came in when President Trump started pulling ahead in the polls in October, that started risk assets, equities in particular, moving higher, and that continued at various paces until February 17th, from which we had the pullback that you just cited. You gave them the year-to-date numbers. more stark to talk about what happened from that high to the recent lows. S&P down a little more than 10%. NASDAQ down well over 15%. The Magnificent 7 down 20%. Tesla down 40%. NVIDIA down 25%. These are big hits. Yes, the stocks were a bit overvalued, but it's more about that slowdown and cash flow. And look, my view, John hinted at this earlier about valuations, the stock market was selling at its high at 22.5 PE. And you know, we don't see that very often. When it's selling like that, it's assuming the world's going to be nearly perfect, which it rarely is. So we get this pullback, and now we're at 20.5PE, which is still not cheap. And I don't believe the E. I think the earnings estimates are too high, and we'll to come down as the economy slows. So, to your question, where do we go from here? So we had the pullback from 62, 6,300 to 55, 55, 50. Then we had a 5% run up. That was the oversold rally. Didn't last very long and it wasn't big, from which we are now testing. So back to those 55,50 lows, I think we've got a probe lower, 54, 53, 52. And if we don't have recession, that could mark the low for the year. Doesn't mean we're growing straight up. I think we're going to have a choppy year, but if we are going to have a recession and we have more visibility that we might have one, I think the S and P 500 will sport a handle of four, which won't be very pretty and it'll still not be cheap. I don't want to sound like a bear, but there's a risk out there.
John Coleman [00:12:10] Yeah, and I would say I'm not that active on X, but I keep posting a chart every now and then as people freak out just of the five-year returns of the S&P. And it's a little unfair now because we're deep into COVID during 2020. Right now, set a trough. But the S & P is up 126.35% today from five years ago. It's up 172.5% from this day 10 years ago It's up 37% from this day two years ago. And so if you think the long-term returns in markets are linked to GDP and that it's typically around 7% or 8%, we have been blowing through that number. I mean, high double-digit returns now for a long period of time. I mean this has been an incredible bull run since effectively the 2008 period, since the recovery from the great financial crisis with a blip during COVID. And I actually think some form of correction in the price of stocks in the valuation of these assets is healthy given the run-up that we've seen. I do think inflation and the amount of money in circulation in the economy obviously leads asset prices higher, but I also encourage a lot of folks that I'm talking to to just keep calm and carry on, right? If you look beyond the last quarter, we are living through one of the most remarkable public market cycles in history really in a lot of ways. And like Bob, I actually think there's room for another, and I'm not predicting anything, but I would not be surprised to see 15 or 20% come out if we had a recession. I don't actually think we'd be that far from appropriate valuations if that happened, just given how hot the markets have been. And while I think that would obviously be a dramatic move, it would impact people, it wouldn't be unhealthy in terms of the long-term returns or even the midterm returns that people are getting. And so, In my mind, this year being a bit volatile, maybe a bit flat or even a bit down, wouldn't be terribly unhealthy given the run up that we've had in some of these stocks and the valuations particularly amongst the large caps right now. I think small caps and mid caps tend to be valued a little bit better right now, but particularly towards the upper end of the market with the Magnificent 7, with even large cap stocks generally, the price to earnings multiples are at historic highs in a lot of ways. And so I would not be surprised that those retract a little bit, especially if there's negative economic news. And I don't think that's actually a harbinger of long-term problems given the highs from which we're retracting. If you just look at a one-year or two-year, I think even over the one year we're up 9% right now, right, which would be a little above your long- term averages. And so investors should just be prepared that this could be a part of a normal cycle where financial assets return. to some level of normalcy after an incredible bull run, at least in my experience.
Bob Doll [00:15:01] At the risk of piling on, John, there are only two ways to get the stock market or an individual stock to go up, you know. First is earnings better than expected. They come in as expected, the stock tends to go nowhere. So better than expect in earnings or to higher valuations. So let's take them one at a time. Earnings are near an all time high. Profit margins, more importantly, are at all time highs. I can't look at you guys and say, and the profit margin is going to go higher from here. I think it probably contracts some, which means earnings growth is less than normal. And we already talked about P's being extended. So you put those two things together, the risk reward at the moment is not great. Let me add to that by saying if you look historically, when the P-E ratio of the five and ten year returns of averaged 4 or 5% including dividends. So when somebody says, you know, Bob, what do you think is going to happen to the stock market in the next 5 to 10 years? I say it's going to be volatile. It's going go up, but the total returns probably going to about 5% per annum. They look at me like, why are you so bearish? I'm not. I'm with you, John. You know, it's still a good place to be. If you're a good stock picker, you can do better than 5, but if 5 is what the S&P 500 gives you, value stocks will do better. maybe international stocks are better. maybe down cap will do better. We've just had such a wonderful, wonderful multi-year period.
Richard Cunningham [00:16:30] So let's get in some of the why. Bob, I hear you kind of getting into the fundamentals and the earnings and everything like that with the valuation, but there's also this other why, which is kind of the broader economic side of things, the administration change and the regime change and kind of, the volatility that's come out of Washington. Curious how to phrase this question. When you guys see what the Trump administration is looking to accomplish, they want to balance the budget. We're bringing in 4 trillion, spending 6 trillion. So we've got a $2 trillion budget deficit. Elon has been tasked with. cutting out a trillion of that. Lutnik has been tasked with bringing in an additional trillion in revenue. So the theory of the plan makes a lot of sense in what they're going after. It's, hey, we wanna balance this budget. Is a lot the why for what we're experiencing in the markets also a part of what the regime is looking to do and are they just willing to kind of deal with some of this blowback they're gonna feel in the economy and the markets? What would you guys say to that?
Bob Doll [00:17:24] There's that question. Let's look at the correction we've had over the last six, seven weeks. What's caused it? Well, we've both used the word uncertainty. That's, in my view, number one. Number two, and related, is tariffs. And number three is valuation. But valuation is a poor short-term indicator for future returns. It's a great long-term indicated, but poor short term. You need a catalyst to unlock under or overvaluation. And the catalysts we got are uncertainty and tariffs. So that's one way to answer your good question. I think another way is to say, unlike Trump 1.0, here at 2.0 I think they're taking the pain, the tough news up front, and hopefully will live long enough to see the gain on the other side, which will come from tax cuts and deregulation and implied in that of course is some smaller budget deficits. But we got to get from here to there. And it's not that simple as the stock market is showing us today. So I think that's their plan. I hope that's there plan because the alternative is not a whole lot of fun. So I that's the why. And I come back to please, Mr. Trump, reduce the amount of uncertainty out there, you know, give us the bad news and let us live with it. Let us figure it out. Don't give us good news on Monday and bad news on Tuesday and vice versa.
John Coleman [00:18:51] Yeah, and maybe I'll tee up a couple of topics I'd love to hear Bob weigh in on as well, just on the policy front. So let's come back to technology and things like that later and fundamental productivity growth, et cetera. I think on the public policy front, my read is that the Trump administration is very much trying to be very aggressive in the first six to 12 months of their term. I think they understand that that's their best opportunity to take dramatic action. I think they've learned from the example in Argentina, where Javier Mele took dramatic action up front. Now, Argentina was in a much more precarious financial situation than the United States, but Mele came in and he took dramatic action that many people criticize right away, but they're already experiencing a dramatic recovery as a result of that dramatic action. And so if I just chunk the things that the Trump administration is trying to take on right now. You know, one certainly is to reduce the deficits and long-term debt of the United States, and they do want to eliminate this $2 trillion annual deficit that we're running where costs are exceeding revenues dramatically now. And we're piling up an unsustainable long- term debt in my view. They do want achieve that through a mixture of cuts coming from Doge. I think they legitimately believe they can get close to a trillion dollars by reducing waste, fraud, and abuse. Staffing levels and some of the government agencies that they view as unproductive, those will have negative implications in the short term because they will cause some unemployment. They will certainly reduce some government money in circulation. And there's this whole discussion about whether government spending or parts of government spending should even be accounted for in GDP because they're not productive spending, which we could get into. But that Doge effort is certainly targeted towards trying to reduce federal spending without fundamentally changing federal programs like Social Security, education, expending, etc. So attacking waste, fraud and abuse. The second is obviously that they're trying to come up with new revenue sources that would support us expanding tax cuts for individuals. And their primary focus seems to be tariffs. If people want to get what I think has been the best explanation for What is likely the true posture of the Trump administration. The All In podcast had a good two hour interview with Letnik last week. I think it was where Letnik laid out systematically their position on tariffs, which is the U S for too long has allowed tariffs from other countries on us goods without any sort of parallel tariffs on our side. They fundamentally believe that that's unfair, that it was an explicit policy choice to the United States following World War II to build up foreign countries so that they could regain footing. and they believe the time for that is over and that the United States should be operating more as a peer given that we're the greatest consumer in the world and that U.S. taxpayers should not be supporting other countries with one-sided tariffs. And so when you see this tariff regime, many of those are retaliatory rather than aggressive, meaning they're considering tariffs that would be on par with those already levied against the United States from places like India, from places, like China, even from places like Canada, which has been missed, Canada imposes. tariffs and restrictions on U.S. operating businesses right now that the Trump administration is mirroring, which is kind of part of his playbook. They also believe that that can be a significant revenue source. They look back to the pre-1910s, when the vast majority of U. S. tax revenues came from tariffs. And so they think they can raise a trillion dollars in revenue from tariffs in a way that not only puts us more in peripasoo with other countries, but re-onshores critical American jobs. You've got to remember now. There has been a remarkable electoral realignment in the U.S. where the Trump Republican Party in particular is now the party of the working class. If you look at polling data, et cetera, even unions supporting President Trump, they are dedicated to trying to bring working class jobs back to America through manufacturing, et cetera, not only because of a fundamental belief, but because of political motivation. as well. And so I think the terrorists are intended to punish certain behaviors, like they definitely want to use them on Mexico to reduce border crossings, fentanyl imports, etc. But they have a real economic belief that they can raise revenue with these and that they can restore fairness and that can re-onshore critical industries, right? And so, I think the terrorists, are likely actually not to be a short-term political negotiating lever, but actually a long-term policy of the United States. And that's just starting to sink in. I think with people and then the final components of that, that Bob started to touch on, that could be helpful to the economy if we get through this pain. And I also think their political motivation is to get the worst stuff done this year so we can grow headed into the midterms, which is a political reality for them. They want to extend tax cuts. They're very serious about trying to cut income tax on anyone under $150,000 a year in income. They want extend those, no tax on tips, et cetera, so they have to have revenue from somewhere else. They want to deregulate aggressively as a second round of Doge, which could be good for economic growth in the United States. And so I do think the tariffs and the cost cutting are kind of the bad news that the economy absorbing right now. And if they can get through those, their hope is that domestic job growth. tax cuts and deregulation can provide an economic jolt on the back end of that, that overwhelms any negative impact of those tariffs and of the cost cutting that they're doing. And so I think their hope is they can thread the needle like Millet did, where they take the pain up front. But then by the time we head into the midterms next year, there's a lot of good news for individuals and fundamental economic growth apart from government spending is restored in a positive way.
Bob Doll [00:24:24] I agree with everything you said. I would emphasize the timeframe perspective. While Donald Trump did win the seven swing states, he did win the popular vote, which not too many Republicans do. He only beat Harris by one and a half points. It was not a landslide. A lot of people are talking that way, acting that way. And the way you see that is the margin of Republicans over Democrats in the House and the Senate. It's like very narrow. And so getting things done is not gonna be simple. And you're right, a year from now, the focus is gonna be on the midterm elections. And it's very rare that the president in power doesn't lose seats. So chances are high one or both chambers will revert to Democrats. So for Trump to get stuff done, he's gotta do it now. And I hope you're that we're fine tuning, threading the needle. You know, two years is a short amount of time to get a lot done. So, uh, we just have to watch this real carefully guys.
Richard Cunningham [00:25:29] And so I want to double click into tariffs, because I think that's a key one that kind of is a microcosm into what's going on here and what the Trump administration is trying to do. Bob, you put out a great stat in that paper that we mentioned earlier that Trump's tariff plan, John, you mentioned a trillion dollars of revenue possibly, but like, you know, let's go real conservative here. Let's say it's $250 billion in revenue to the U.S. That would, in other words, offset moving the corporate tax rate back from 35% to 21% from a revenue standpoint. So. This exercise of tariffs, I mean, there is negative near-term implications that we've spoken to in an already inflationary environment. Tariffs layer on another addition of kind of cost increase. Bob, you've mentioned the word recession a couple times now. What has to happen from a threading of the needle standpoint for this to work well and for this actually play out well? Because at what point does the Trump administration just say, hey, we need to take the exit ramp because midterms are coming and this is actually not playing out as we expected. Costs got out of control. we're leaning in the recession.
Bob Doll [00:26:29] Yeah, right set of questions, both politically and economically. So first of all, recession. If you know nothing, which most days I feel I know nothing. The probability of recession is 15%. Why? Because that's about how much time we spend in recession. So if you know, nothing, somebody asked you 15%. Our view was at the start of the year, the probability was higher than that. Call it 25. And now it's moved up to at least 35, probably 40%. So still less than half. But each passing day, and this starts to answer your good question, Richard. Each passing day economic weakness becomes more obvious. Uncertainty doesn't go away. And that probability of recession just keeps going up. So we've got to reduce the uncertainty very fast. Tariffs. So John's already talked about this to some degree, but let me amplify. The way I would like to look at tariffs. which I think could actually be positive, even though tariffs slow growth and create inflation. So the general are not good. If all we do is reciprocal tariffs, you know, the outcome can be not so bad. So let's suppose John is putting a 3% tariff on my stuff. And I say, John, if you insist on that, we're gonna do reciprocal, we're going to do 3% on you. And John says, oh, hang on a minute. If I drop that and go to zero, will you stay at zero with me? And yeah, we come to an agreement and guess what? Tariffs just went down. Now that's a little idealistic on my point to make that comment, but I'm hoping there's going to be some of that and that would increase the competitive position of the United States significantly increase our growth rate and you know, bring more and more tax revenue in reduce the deficit, et cetera, et Cetera. So that's another way out of this mess that we find ourselves in. But I come back to as you were connecting pieces of your question, we gotta get on with it. We can't go another two months with all this uncertainty. We'll be in a recession.
John Coleman [00:28:39] And I think they're trying to achieve what Bob is talking about. We'll see how it plays out. But my read so far as they are hoping to get other countries to back down their tariffs, to increase the amount that we can export to other countries. And they'd be quite happy with that outcome. The one exception I might highlight is I do think there are punitive tariffs that might occur for non-economic reasons on certain countries, whether that be Mexico. If for example, they're not happy with management of the cartels. I think China... I think there are a lot of non-economic considerations that will go into the tariffs on China, which make them a bit more difficult to predict. I think that's to some extent warranted. And then there are certain product categories where I do think their focus is on re-onsuring, even if they're short-term economic pain, and they're trying to come up with other ways to offset those. I think COVID made everyone aware that our medical devices and pharmaceuticals, we were too at risk of foreign production of those and too at-risk of those things. defense technology, chips, which is a huge focus now, and what, again, they're threading the needle. What they're trying to do is get companies to announce huge investments in the U.S. to re-onshore chips. I think Nvidia just announced $100 billion to reonshoring. There have been some similar investments that have been announced. So if they can thread the needle where they have sustainable tariffs that try and re-inshore production of what they view as critical industries for U. S. national security and competitiveness. they can do so simultaneous with huge foreign investment in the United States to accomplish that, whether that be through SoftBank, through Saudi Arabia, through companies like Nvidia. I think their hope is that if they can get those things to hang together, they could actually achieve this goal of a painful process of re-onshoring but with enough foreign investment and capital inflows to actually support U.S. production in a more rapid way. The question is whether, on that last part, that will actually materialize in the way that they and over what time frame. Right? Because even when you say, I'm going to put $100 billion into re-onsuring chip manufacturing, you don't turn on that 100 billion right away, right? That takes some time to filter in. And so I do think most of this is an economic tit for tat where they're trying to raise revenue but also restore equilibrium on tariffs with various areas like the EU or countries like India. There are some punitive ones, and then there are industries that they're really focused on trying to rebuild in the United States that they feel are a competitiveness and national security threat.
Richard Cunningham [00:31:06] Good comments, guys. Thank you all. John, you said a couple of things that spurred two thoughts and we're going to go to both of them. First, maybe while we're talking tariffs and international relations, what about just what would you guys double click on as you look at the geopolitical landscape? Because I know that's another factor and lever here that could just always throw a bomb in all of these plans of something kind of ignited in the wrong way. But as we think about Russia, Ukraine, what's going on with Iran and the Middle East. Is there anything you have a particular eye on, Bob?
Bob Doll [00:31:31] Yeah, so Donald Trump is desperate for a Nobel Peace Prize. And so don't lose sight of that in what might happen. I know he said in the campaign trail, he can solve Russia, Ukraine in a day. Well, it's taken a little longer than a day, but I do believe we will get some positive news there and we'll stop shooting each other. You know, how much is that gonna cost? What happens to Zelensky in the process? How does Trump get there? But I think there's gonna be calm there before too much longer. Same for the Middle East. I think... The U.S. has said to Israel, here's a blank check. Go eliminate all the nasty boys. And when you're getting close to finish, let's talk about dismantling the nuclear power of Iran. I think there could be regime change forced by the West in Iran. And you know, do you do those couple of things and boy, things calm down. Doesn't solve all the problems, but for a period of time. So I'm more than optimistic. I'm hopeful on both of those sets of conflicts. China's a much more difficult one. I think personally that China has real economic problems. Too many 100-story buildings with nobody living in them, all financed on debt. Consumption, it's getting a little better, but struggling. I don't think President Xi is gonna last all that long. They have a massive demographic problem because the one birth policy, which is no longer policy became a way of life. And if you study the Chinese population, you know, fewer get married when they do it's later in life. And if they have any kids, it's one, if you have two, you have a big family. Their population demographers say will be half of what it is today by the end of this century. That's a big problem. You cannot grow your economy if your population shrinking that fast. So. I don't know what happens there. So you still have, you know, Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran. How do you solve that one? But on the first two, they're a lot smaller and a lot simpler. Neither is simple. You get it.
John Coleman [00:33:46] Yeah, Bob, those comments are awesome. And I think you've touched on all the right things. I actually am modestly confident that the Ukraine, Russia, we've seen the worst of it now and that it will calm down. I think there will be a negotiated settlement there. I think Russia's tired of the war. I think Ukraine as a whole is tired of war and Europe is tired the war The key that Europe will focus on is not giving Putin a win in this to set a long-term precedent that's bad. I think everyone agrees Crimea is probably a part of Russia or a disputed territory indefinitely moving out here. We're not going to get that back for Ukraine, but then the negotiation turns into how long do they agree not to join NATO, what other territories remain with Russia, et cetera. But that's kind of a prolonged diplomatic negotiation that I think is unlikely to flare up because I don't think it's in anyone's interest right now for that to flare up further. Putin is facing his own pressures. I think China is much frailer than we think they are. I think they're spying in the U S is actually a huge problem. That's a political problem, but their population's declining. Their financial system is in trouble. Their fundamental economy is in. Terrorists will hurt them worse than us, right? Because they don't have a sustainable in economy. Long term, that makes me bullish on the fact that the United States can outcompete China and that China will have to face some sort of reforms at some point or decline. Short term, there's always a big risk when a powerful country is at a frail point in its history that things could go wrong quickly and the best way to unify people when there are domestic problems is to create a foreign adversary. And so I think we have to be. appropriately cautious in the short term about what type of an instability there could be in China. And then the Iran question to me is a big one. I do think that Iran is at the heart of everything that's happening in the Middle East right now. I think they're probably weaker now than almost any time since the 70s. I personally believe that the U.S. is waiting for a good moment to let Israel strike Iran's nuclear reactors and potentially do even more. I think Iran is much more of a loose cannon than China or Russia at this point. And if that spirals out of control, that could cause significant disruptions, particularly in certain markets, oil and natural gas, et cetera, but also even in shipping and things like that. So if I were to focus on one foreign conflict that I thought had the opportunity to spin out of the control in the near term, it would likely be the Middle Eastern conflict, just depending on if Israel gets the green light and if they hit Iran in their country. and then what Iran's response to that is. And that's quite difficult to predict. I think that's an unsolvable area of uncertainty right now. But I do think China and Russia are not in as strong a position as sometimes they are painted to be.
Bob Doll [00:36:28] You're largely on the same page, and don't forget that Nobel Peace Prize.
John Coleman [00:36:32] and the Nobel Prize. I don't know that they're gonna give it to him, Bobby, even if he brings it out of peace. Thanks.
Richard Cunningham [00:36:40] especially in light of all those tariffs. But hey, John, the second point you brought up when it was the geopolitical side of things and also from unpacking tariffs and whatnot and on-shoring, one of the potential long-term benefits is the on-shoring that could come to the US, also under this thought of less regulation and just the guardrails of business maybe being freed up a little bit. And on the backs of less regulations, possibly more M&A activity. And so that's where I wanted to go next with you guys was, hey, we saw Core Weave IPO last week. We saw Google Alphabet have an enormous acquisition, $32 billion of whiz. Even though it's been a really tough kind of stock market in Q1 since 2022, one of the lowest ever, you're starting to see some rumblings of, hey, Q1 2025 was an incredible time for deal activity on the private markets in smaller time, kind of one of bigger upticks since 2021. So what are you guys watching as it relates to M&A and maybe IPO markets starting to heat up a little bit?
Bob Doll [00:37:33] Surprised or I would have expected a whole lot more than we're seeing you are right to point out some of the things you're talking About but I think it's I've used the word so many times It's uncertainty that's causing guys and gals that might otherwise do a deal to just step back But if we can get past this back to we take our pain and then we go to the game I think we could see a raft of deals that the administration will allow to happen and maybe even encourage to happen but we gotta get past the uncertainty first.
John Coleman [00:38:03] And this is where I'm probably most bullish on long-term economic prospects or even midterm economic prospects for the United States. We have an almost insurmountable lead at the moment that is unlikely to go away in the next four years in technological innovation and business innovation. Europe has basically regulated itself into stagnation. Japan is in no position at the moment to innovate in the way that they did in the 80s. Korea has the most heavy collapsing demographic crisis in the world right now. South Korea does, at least in the major developed countries. And there are areas where there's growth in innovation, Africa, parts of Latin America, et cetera, but nowhere that has the business base that the United States does. And we are right at the pointy end of the sphere on all the most important technological innovations right now, the best AI companies, we hear about threats from China, but they are in the United states. the best automation companies are in the United States. Many of the best robotics companies are in United States, and particularly if we have an era of deregulation that allows them to continue to innovate and build businesses. If it's true that the immigration policy is gonna turn to recruitment on a meritocratic basis, which is part of this Trump gold card that they're launching, they think they're gonna get a million people to pay $5 million to get a green card for the US. Many entrepreneurs wanting to start businesses, for example. I think we could create an economic environment where we stay at the forefront of these massive long-term technological trends, and that would make me extremely bullish on the fundamental growth of the U.S. economy because the companies are able to start here that I think could be great for the U S. I'm with Bob. I thought we'd see a little more activity early on because the FTC certainly has a I think that's still going to kick in, because I think there's a lot of pent-up demand for that. It may just take some time. And so I'm a little bit bullish on the fundamental economy, particularly in the technology sector and in the innovation sector, so the hard technology and software, where we have a huge lead right now, and there's really no global competitor other than China. And there are many reasons great entrepreneurs aren't moving to China, right, and that they're likely to come here rather than stay in Europe or stay in other parts of Have a great day. And if that's the case, and if we can recruit them here, and if can maintain our lead in those various innovation areas, there's some short-term labor problems that may happen to AI. I think that's going to be transformational. But at the very least, our companies will continue to be successful, and our startup ecosystem will continue be successful.
Bob Doll [00:40:33] John, you just outlined the reasons why the United States stock market has a premium valuation over every other in the world. Yeah, we're having some difficulties at the moment. International is outperforming. But we're not going to go to parity on a PE basis anyway, shape or form for the very reasons you said.
Richard Cunningham [00:40:52] Well, hey, let's pivot now to, I know a topic the three of us are all very passionate about. You two both lead faith-based or faith-driven investment firms. Love to hear about maybe that kind of one problem, one thing top of mind for you, Bob and your work at Crossmark and John and your lead in Sovereign Capital that you're just really ruminating on as it relates to the faith- driven and kind of faith- based investing ecosystem.
Bob Doll [00:41:13] You know, I would say, and I'm sure John's going to agree with us and have more things to say, I'm now four years at Crossmark, the amount of time I have spent educating people, close my mind. So what I'm trying to say is, come on, let's get on with it. A lot of people have not heard about what we all do for a living every day. Oh, I didn't know that exists. Tell me more. And that's whether it's a financial advisor, a faith based institution. a faith-based individual investor and we're all working overtime to get the word out and educate and uh you know i get frustrated richard the people that don't see in the light bulb doesn't come on and they don't just
John Coleman [00:41:56] Yeah, I couldn't agree more with Bob, so I'll take it a different direction, which is one of the things that motivates me as a faith-driven investor is I think people like Bob, people like the folks that work with us, we have a real optimism about the future because of our faith. We know where this all ends up, short-term or long-term, you know? But we also have a commitment to love of neighbor and to seeing people flourish. And one of worrying trends of the last... 20 years, 30 years, has been this consistent decline in flourishing despite increased prosperity, right? People are lonelier, they're less happy. There's a lot of fragmentation. There's lot of social problems that have built up even though we're richer than we used to be, you know, with some exceptions. And I think what I would love to see as faith-based investors continue to take the lead on how can we as investors, as partners to those who are building companies. try and solve not only the economic problems, we have to perform with excellence. That's what we're called to do. But in some small measure, contribute to trying to solve this giant macro problem, particularly in the developed world of this crisis of purpose and meaning of the loneliness and isolation that people feel of the way in which people are not engaged at work. How can we be contributors to creating workplaces that make people's lives better, not worse, and reverse some of these trends that we've seen? I think there are some small green shoots on that front. I mean, Bible sales are up 25%. The Hallow app has exploded and there are tens of millions of people doing daily devotionals. We've even seen a ton of articles recently about Christianity suddenly making an appearance in Silicon Valley. I remember the HBO show, Silicon Valley, where people came out as Christian. It was like, you know, the worst thing that they can do. And now, you now, there are leaders in that space. And that's important because the faith we share, but also because I think. That series of positions and beliefs and the tenets of that faith unlock something that can make people's lives better and more fulfilling and happier, make families stronger. And my hope is that if we can get people off the sidelines, Bob, and if we get them to start thinking of their values as a part of their capital allocation, and if can use that capital to really transform the way that companies and real estate developments work. in a way that's aligned with creating love of neighbor and human flourishing in the various things in which we're investing, that we can unlock not only economic prosperity, but a deeper prosperity of the soul that I feel is lacking right now in so many parts of our world.
Bob Doll [00:44:26] Amen. You've just described reforming capitalism. That's what we need to do. There's so many good aspects of it. And yet, for capitalism to work, it needs Judeo-Christian principles. And we can't separate the two. We need to encourage a flourishing world underneath the rubric of, you know, we will love the Lord our God and all he stands for.
Richard Cunningham [00:44:50] Well guys, this has been an awesome episode and Bob, we're gonna do this. I mean, what a privilege to have you on the podcast. Take us home with some wisdom. What's the Lord been teaching you lately in and through his word?
Bob Doll [00:44:59] Yeah, I almost use the word answer to one of the last questions. Patience. I'm an impatient guy. I want to get it done yesterday when I quote know what the right answer is. So whether that's personally or professionally, uh, professionally, it's, you know, we already articulated it. How many years are we going to have to educate before people do it? You know, and look, people have to be convinced in one over in time to think I respect all that. And personally, it is the same thing. You know. When I do things at Crossmark, I think, how come we don't have the answer now? How come we're not moving the ball faster? So patience. God has a long-term time horizon and I gotta fit into it by relaxing and letting God be God and not forcing myself to try to be God.
John Coleman [00:45:45] And this will be moderately self-serving. Patience is not a virtue that I'm blessed with, Bob. So I'm 100% with you on that. When you figure it out, give me a call. It's not what I'm naturally blessed with. I'll tell you, this is one promotional thing I'll say is I've been watching House of David every week when it comes out. I think everybody should be watching House Of David. I think the change in culture is huge and it's just so cool to see biblical stories come to life at a Hollywood level of quality. But it's also made me reflect much more deeply on Samuel and Kings and on the story of David. And one of these themes is just how cautious we need to be to maintain humility and faithfulness, particularly as we're successful. What brought down King Saul was, there's a great line in the first episode where Samuel says, when you were small in your own eyes, God made you great. And now that you're great in your eyes, you've fallen away from God. and the story of David and even Jonathan is really about keeping their heads on straight that they are servants of the living God. And that gives them both a confidence, but also a humility, a confidence that if they're living into that mission, they can do anything and a humility that it's not by their own strength, but God's strength, right? Which can be hard sometimes. I mean, anytime someone's successful, they start to get in their own head about being responsible for that success. And that's always the seed of downfall, as it even was for David and Solomon, you know, later in those stories. And just watching House of David, that brings it to life so much for me, like, Bob, I'm so encouraged that someone like you is in the faith-driven investing ecosystem because you're the best at what you do. You are a remarkable person in markets. You're incredibly intelligent. You bring a professionalism to this industry that is desperately needed. But I also know you're humble. And so... My hope is, for myself, that even as we begin to make strides, even as we're able to accomplish great things, that we appropriately attribute that success to the one who gave it to us, and that we really just faithfully try and dedicate ourselves to his service and to the mission that he would lay before us, rather than kind of getting high on our own supply and starting to believe our own story or narrative and put ourselves at the center. So true.
Bob Doll [00:47:52] I sometimes talk about when it's money, well, it's not our money, it God's money. And one guy said to me recently, a believer, but I worked hard for that. And who gave you the brain power to be able to do the work hard? It's all his. And the sooner we figure that out, the sooner can move the humility and away from the pride.
Richard Cunningham [00:48:11] What is it? James 117. Every good and perfect gift comes from above. It starts there. Amen. Man, Bob Doll, John Coleman. What a great episode. We covered a lot of ground. I know it's been a full and volatile Q1, but what a privilege to bring you guys in for some timely remarks and then some timeless wisdom as our friend Luke Rausch likes to say it there at the end. So friends for John Coleman, Bob doll, this is Richard Cunningham. Thanks for joining us for another episode of the FDI Podcast and we will catch you next time.
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