Graphs! Charts! Phases!

Never in all my life have I seen (or sent) so many. With the onslaught of pandemic analysis, we’re awash in models attempting to make sense of our world. Regions, organizations, and churches are employing tools to make it clear to their communities where they are and where they’re going, such as: Red → Yellow → Green. In Colorado, our three phases are:

Phase 1) Stay at Home → Phase 2) Safer at Home → Phase 3) Protect our Neighbors

These tools help us interpret our current moment. As I’ve navigated the pandemic through the eyes of the one million families HOPE serves around the world, I’ve begun to see the situation through, you guessed it, three phases.

Phase 1: The Precedented Crisis → Emergency Relief

What feels abrupt and jarring to us in the United States unfortunately feels familiar in many places around the world. A shock of this scale has not hit my country in my lifetime. But crises like this are far more normal in places like Zimbabwe, Haiti, and Moldova.

We surveyed members of HOPE’s savings groups about facing financial emergencies. In Malawi, 28% shared they lost about half (or more) of their wealth over the previous year due to crises like drought, food insecurity, and violence. I have no family members nor close friends (read: 0%) who lost half their wealth last year. Here, we expect certainty and predictability. For many, certainty and predictability seem impossible.

When countries went into lockdown, we collectively leaned into our safety nets. In crises, we all rely on some combination of family and friends, our savings accounts, government stimulus checks, and even deep pantries to sustain us while we hunkered down.

The families HOPE serves are no different. Farmers in some cases harvested their safety nets— eating their cows and chickens, rather than selling their milk and eggs. Corner shop owners ate the inventory, using the flour and oil they intended to sell.

In that same survey in Malawi last year, we asked HOPE savings group members about their readiness to respond to an emergency. 81% reported being able to meet a significant emergency need ($19), compared to just 37% of the broader Malawian population. Some have been able to do even more than sustain their own families. Amazingly, HOPE’s Rwandan savings groups have purchased and donated more than 2.3 tons of food to their most vulnerable neighbors. For the first time in our history, HOPE joined these savings groups by providing food relief to those most severely affected by the virus and lockdowns across the globe.

Those we serve were ready to both stay afloat and help their neighbors through this crisis. But for many, the cost of serving as a safety net to others meant wiping out their own fragile safety nets.

Phase 2: Emerging from Lockdown → Grace Periods

As lockdowns begin to ease, economies churn back to life, and people return to work, new challenges confront entrepreneurs as they try and restart. With threadbare safety nets and slowly emerging customers, it’s not feasible to simply flip the livelihood switch back on.

Many of the entrepreneurs we serve are unable to repay their business loans. To meet these entrepreneurs in this vulnerable place, we rewrote our rules entirely. HOPE’s microfinance institutions and partners extended wide-ranging loan rescheduling, grace periods, and flexibility so entrepreneurs like Jofrey can get back to work quickly.

Jofrey, a grocer and restauranteur we serve in Congo, said, “The confinement imposed to fight COVID-19 has been a tough and unexpected time, but I am grateful to God as my grill and grocery business were authorized to open three days a week… The grace period helped me a lot and I have been able to save while keeping in mind the repayments resumption.”

Phase 3: Rebuilding Dreams → Kickstart Capital

We’re now seeing opportunities to invest big in the old and new dreams of bakers, barbers, and blacksmiths. Recovery lending is an essential service for communities lacking stimulus funding and the Paycheck Protection Program many can take advantage of in the United States. For asset and cash-depleted entrepreneurs, we’re rolling out new loan products with flexible terms and delayed repayment schedules to allow them to jumpstart their livelihoods.

And we’re beginning to see the fruit of this approach. After reopening his business, Jofrey paid it forward. He decided to extend a grace period to some of his customers—taxi drivers who could not work during the lockdown—allowing them to buy food for their family on credit. For millions of entrepreneurs like Jofrey, rebuilding will require perseverance. But, we have witnessed this resilience before and are confident we will see it again.