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How would you finish this sentence?

“Today’s real estate market is…”

On today’s Marks on the Markets episode, words like “hopeful” get thrown in as well as “apocalyptic.” 

There are a lot of moving parts and here to help us make sense of how we think through them with a Kingdom lens is Ben Erskine and Tom Hahn.

Each of them have been longtime leaders in the redemptive real estate space. They join us to talk about what they’re seeing right now in the market and what they expect it to look like in the future. 

They also discuss ways we can redeem this industry, which our team explores in a new video series “Redemptive Real Estate.” Find it here: https://www.faithdriveninvestor.org/video-library#real-estate

Like this episode? Don’t forget to review, follow, and share the show with others.

Episode Transcript

John Coleman: Welcome back to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is our monthly Mark’s on the Market podcast. I’m John Coleman, one of the managing partners at Sovereigns Capital and a host of the Faith Driven Investor podcast. And today we have a very interesting marks on the market focus on real estate, which has become a boogeyman in the markets right now, whether that be soaring mortgage rates, falling home sales, vacancies in office. There are so many things to talk about right now and also a lot of innovations happening in the way that faith driven investing happens in real estate. Led by two of the gentlemen we have on the podcast today. Our first guest everyone is familiar with, Ben Erskine was the founder of Callus Capital. After a lengthy career in real estate. He launched a fund one a few years ago and is now leading the real estate function with sovereign’s capital. And then alongside Ben, we have Tom Hahn. Tom Hahn founded a real estate firm called Prudent Growth in 2015. He’s now the president of that organization, which invests across the real estate markets, but with some interest, particularly in places like retail. And these two gentlemen have deep expertise in the real estate market. So we’re very happy to welcome you on. Tom and Ben, thanks so much for coming.

Ben Erskine: Glad to be here.

Tom Hahn: Thank you for having us

John Coleman: So I want to start at a very high level. You know, marks on the market is about just taking the temperature of an asset class or of markets. Right now. We’re filming this right at the beginning of July. This will air on July 10th. What in your mind is top of mind in real estate markets right now? Obviously, there are a lot of dynamics, but what are the headlines that you’re paying attention to right now? And Tom, we may just start with you, if you don’t mind.

Tom Hahn: Sure. Absolutely. So thanks for having me. You know, and we’ve primarily focus on neighborhood retail and smaller bay Industrial Flex and multifamily in the Southeast and the southern Midwest. So in our area, what we’re primarily talking about and what we’re seeing in the markets are obviously higher borrowing costs, which are having some, you know, pretty significant impact on the ability of buyers to get into a deal at the same kind of valuations they were achieving, say, 12 months ago. I think that we’re certainly seeing a lot of talk in the retail and industrial space around more of a bullish side around just very low vacancy rates. We’ve had very strong leasing activity and new construction certainly in retail, new construction is at like two decade lows. So you sort of have low vacancy, very little new construction. I think you’re going to have even less new construction with these higher borrowing costs, which are really hampering the ability of developers to get projects started. So we’re sort of cautiously optimistic. I think it’s a good time to buy. We like to say that if we can make a deal work at today’s borrowing costs, you know, we’re like six, six and a quarter percent on a lot of our debt. We’re really going to like the deal in two or three years when rates are moderating again. You know, we look at the yield curve every day. We look at the interest rates every day. And you can certainly see the pricing of the two years and the one year notes versus the five years. You know, you’re going to probably have a 200 basis point cut in rates in the next 24 months or so. You know, certainly that’s what’s priced into the market. So we think it’s a great time to buy and kind of get out in front of that and, you know, take advantage of some slightly higher cap rates.

John Coleman: Super interesting, Tom. And I know we’re going to circle back and focus on retail in a moment, because I do think the dynamics are fascinating there, especially given I remember four or five years ago retail was actually the big question mark in real estate from my experience. But before we dive in, Ben, what’s top of mind for you? What are you focused on at the moment?

Ben Erskine: Yeah, I mean, I’d echo a lot of what Tom said. Certainly the interest rate environment has done a lot to slow down transaction volume. We see volumes down, you know, 40, 50, 60% depending on the asset class, depending on the part of the country. So higher borrowing costs and just a little bit of dislocation or a bid ask spread is slowing down volumes and it is very much a kind of sector by sector analysis. You know, the kind of big, ugly gorilla in the room is office. That’s where fundamentally there’s been such a loss or uncertainty around where is demand really going in that asset class, what is the need? But in other areas, there’s plenty of brightness and hope around demand. I mean, we still think that fundamentally there’s a lot of support for the housing sector. You’ve got to be really thoughtful about how you buy. But we think that the housing sector still has fundamental support. And, you know, I think Tom will talk more about retail in particular. So, you know, it’s a tale of several cities now.

John Coleman: Well, I want to start where you ended then, because real estate is such a fascinating segment of the market and that it’s one of the few that touches everyone very personally. And I know neither of you is a residential housing investor necessarily. You’re not rolling up residential, single family homes, etc.. But I do think it’s relevant to the audience now to start there because it’s such a big segment of the economy. I read an article just this morning that referred to the real estate market for single family homes in the US as stagflation. Right now, you know, mortgage rates have risen. Folks are not selling their homes. There’s really a dearth of availability of existing homes in the market. We’ve seen new housing starts tick up. I think it was like 12% in the last month, just as developers are starting to build new housing. But we haven’t seen pricing coming down and we’re not seeing a lot of sales because mortgages are so high. Can you give us some insight into what you’re seeing in the residential housing market and what you think the next 12 or 24 months might look like? And then maybe since you brought it up, we’ll just start with you.

Ben Erskine: Yeah, I mean, gosh, single family home ownership affordability is so dramatically different today than it was, you know, a year ago when mortgage rates go from 3% to six and a half percent. That just changes things dramatically in home price appreciation. As you alluded to, home prices haven’t really adjusted and it’s largely driven by a lack of inventory. So it’s this funny thing going on in the market right now. You know, construction costs are still pretty high. Certainly financing costs are high, yet a lot of developers are pretty active because there’s such a shortfall of supply of inventory to buy that there’s room for new construction. It’s a funny dynamic, but all of that to say, you know, we’re more active in the multifamily space. We typically think that demand rises and falls for housing, driven by things like household formation, whether rental or ownership. But those two things really move in concert for the most part. But right now, you know, given just how difficult it is for new home ownership, we actually think it’s a support for rental housing, at least in the near term. So it’s a part of our thesis around multifamily housing investing right now.

John Coleman: Tom, are you seeing anything different there?

Tom Hahn: No, I would chime in and say 100% agree with Ben on that. I mean, a lot still depends on where you are in the country. But if you’re in, you know, the southeast, maybe the southern Midwest, some of the states that, you know, are business friendly, there’s strong household formation and strong migration patterns into those states or still a shortage of housing. And I think one of the challenges for the Fed is, you know, the occupancy costs, rent or mortgage are about 40% of the CPI. So it’s like every time they raise interest rates, they actually are then, you know, making it more expensive for people to buy homes, which means people tend to stay in rentals longer, which means there’s even fewer available rental apartments or homes to look at. And then that drives occupancy costs even higher. So it’s a bit of a vicious cycle that they’re in, and I think it takes a lot of time for that to work through the system. But we’re certainly seeing the same thing. I mean, we do have 11 or 1200 units of multifamily. We’ve been in and out of thousands in the past. But, you know, we’re certainly seeing rental increases that we can pass along that are, you know, quite a bit higher than where they used to be, especially when you’re in the Class B and C space where all of the new availability, all the new construction is obviously Class A, And so when you’re in small town America and you’ve got a suburban garden style apartment, there’s just a severe lack of that product, period, and nobody’s really making that anymore. So it’s an issue. It’s a tough one for people that have to live in more like workforce housing, kind of, you know, that lower income bracket. And they’re unfortunately really getting hit hard right now with rising rates and prices.

Ben Erskine: Just an interesting statistic, too, John. I think that I read it yesterday that more than two thirds of current homeowners have mortgage rates of less than 4%. Right. So you think about how far they have to come in before it makes sense to sell and relocate. That’s what’s tying up the inventory right now.

John Coleman: Well, what’s scary about that is it’s so far below the structural average. Over time, you know, 4% would be well below the average for mortgage rates if you look over a 40 or 50 year period. And so the question is really, do we actually get back to that level or does this just have to shake out where people normalize and a new set of rates?

Tom Hahn: And I’ll say to a lot of parts of the country, particularly in the southeast, in towns like Nashville or Raleigh or and Austin or Atlanta, you know, ten years ago you had a lot of just natural movement around jobs and like, hey, I need to spend more time now in Texas or California. I’m going to move, relocate. And with the hybrid work environment, the ability for people to work from home more easily, I think you’re definitely seeing I haven’t seen a lot of statistics on this, but just anecdotally, you don’t really have to move as frequently now, even if your job or maybe your manager you’re reporting to is bouncing around the different cities in the country. So I think it’s just a really interesting dynamic. And I mean, I don’t see any short term change to that.

John Coleman: Well, and I think we could see regional differences shake out. The other stat I saw yesterday that I thought was absolutely fascinating was for the first time in history, the. GDP of the Southeast. So kind of Texas over to North Carolina, down to Florida outpaced the GDP of the Acela corridor. So kind of D.C. up to New York, Boston, you know, forever. That’s been kind of the leading GDP area of the country. And now the southeast is actually greater in terms of GDP. There was $100 billion switch during COVID with people migrating. And so, especially in the Southeast, it’s just been this boom. And so I could definitely see a situation in which the segments of the U.S. just diverge in terms of the dynamics that we’ve been talking about. One thing I’ll touch on briefly, just because I know, again, it might be relevant to some of the folks listening, even though it’s not quite a focus for you all. I find it fascinating. You know, during COVID and shortly thereafter, there was a boom in the sale of second homes. People who lived in New York or who lived in Atlanta went and bought homes in rural areas or in New Hampshire. You know, all these places. And there was a boom in Airbnb, right? Because over the last five or six years, VRBO, Airbnb became so easy that there was this huge cottage industry in that. And Ben, you and I both saw yesterday Airbnb released results for I think their revenue is down 50% or something of that nature. You know, as we think about housing supply and what might happening with dynamics, obviously with those collapsing, you could potentially see a scenario where these Airbnb VRBO owners begin to sell or try and get out of properties because they can’t make the mortgage payments anymore or people just abandon the second home idea. You know, they thought, I’m going to go live in Vermont instead of staying in New York or staying in D.C.. And maybe that reality is not quite what they thought it was. And so I didn’t know if you guys had any perspective on whether you think that might be taking place. And if so, does that have a meaningful impact on the market or do you think that’s pretty marginal?

Ben Erskine: Yeah, I’m happy to jump in for a second, Tom. I know that’s not where either of us spend most of our time, but I did read a lot about that same stuff and have been over the past month or two. I think the article yesterday suggested that some of the worst hit markets have seen 50% declines in revenue. Not necessarily sweeping. Yeah, but still significant. Yeah, and plenty of markets that were, you know, 25, 30, 40% down. And I think that it could be interesting. I think it’d be easy to conclude that, hey, there’s going to be this glut of inventory that comes back on the market because the model doesn’t work anymore to hold it as a rental. The last number I saw was that I think there’s about a million and a half units of those kinds of rentals around the country. So even if ten, 20, 30% of those come back online, I don’t think it’s a major flood of inventory in the market, but it will be interesting to see. And then, you know, the reading that we’ve done and the research that we’ve done into the short term rental space, fundamentally in the right markets, it is a really attractive option in particular for families or groups that are traveling economically. They can usually just a short term rental or an Airbnb or their competitors can offer a home or three rooms or five rooms for a much lesser cost than you could get in a traditional hotel. And so I do think that there is a segment of that demand that’s not going anywhere. But it was certainly on fire through COVID for obvious reasons. And maybe the second and third home rentals will temper.

Tom Hahn: Yeah, I was just there real quick. I’d jump in and agree with that. I do think to me, that’s the canary in the coal mine that I kind of like to watch is at what point do people start to say, I’m so financially stressed that I love having the beach house and mountain house, but let’s just see if we can dump it. And we do talk to we have a decent network of some of these brokers. And, you know, I look at people that list houses up in coastal Maine and down in Florida and in the coastal areas of Carolina. And it is still interesting and the demand is still really good. I mean, houses are hitting the market and they’re getting viewings and they’re selling. But yeah, you do wonder how long will that persist if rates stay this high? It is a very expensive luxury. Good, you know, for sure.

John Coleman: Yeah. I will say just this for you then. This is not a promotion of any stock or anything, but I’ve got a family of. I’ve got four kids, basically. So we’re a traveling army whenever we go anywhere, and they’re often in-laws staying with us. And I don’t think we’ve stayed as a family in a hotel in probably five or six years for exactly what you said, because we don’t want the kids down the hall. They’re young, you know, we want them kind of in a contained space. So that innovation in the market has been really positive for us. But I can also see how it’s kind of probably gone a bit overboard over the course of the last couple of years. I want us to now dig into a couple of topics that I think are much more central to the models of prudent growth and of your strategy. Then want to start with multifamily housing. You guys have both touched on this right now. I know it’s something you both pay close attention to. You know, there are competing dynamics here with rising rates, with rising rents, but also with this structural housing shortage. What do you think is the. Near-term outlook for multifamily housing and what are the risks and opportunities that you’re paying attention to right now?

Tom Hahn: Well, I’ll jump in first, and I know Ben’s going to have some additional perspective on this. I mean, big picture, kind of the two city kind of theme or the best of times. Worst of times. There’s a huge difference in my mind between urban and rural, no matter what the product type is. We’re talking about kind of urban. Suburban, I guess, is a better way to say. I think that there’s a big difference in apartments between class-A new construction, which tends to be the highest price point. Right. And more existing Class B B minor stuff. And what we talked about like a Class B picture, like the suburban apartment building that was probably built in the nineties, maybe the early 2000 is the way, say, apartments used to look before now. And everybody can picture this, you know, their four stories, flat roof kind of modern looking that might have retail on the ground floor and apartments up top and and a parking garage you know kind of built into the structure. So you’re seeing these pop up all over the southeast, whether it’s Austin, Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte. You know, I think the risk is a lot of these developers and a lot of these guys that were buying maybe early 2000 vintage deals and pumping tons of money into them to improve them, or in the case of developer to complete the construction, they utilize bridge financing. Right. So you would typically get a three year loan with a couple of one year extensions and bridge was ridiculously inexpensive. The 12 to 18 months ago, you know, you could borrow at three and a half or 4%, maybe a couple hundred points over LIBOR and lock that in for three years by an interest rate cap. And you know, on a $30 million project, your cap would be a few hundred thousand dollars. And as that debt is now starting to come due, if you have not executed very quickly on, let’s say it’s a value add deal, if you haven’t gotten in there and really significantly invested in the asset boosted rents turned over units, your interest rate costs are skyrocketing. Those same caps that you could buy for two or $300,000 are now, you know, 2 to $3 million. And your monthly debt service is really going to be strong. So, you know, I don’t think we’ve seen the full impact of that yet. But I do think you’re going to start to see guys having to get out. There was the big story in Texas, right, The 3200 units that kind of got given back. I think that operator had some significant issues beyond just, you know, the interest rate environment. But, you know, he bought a ton of property for absurdly low rates and did not do any real value add. And as the rates were getting ready to reset, I mean, you know, it just didn’t work. So you’re going to see good operators separated from bad operators, guys that were able to get in there and improve and drive rents higher and OI higher. You know, I think they’re going to be okay. But yeah, I don’t think we’ve seen the full impact yet of these higher rates. But I mean, I think that what’s happening now is the cap rates on the new stuff, particularly in some of the cities where there’s a little bit of oversupply, they’re starting to widen out. Right. So, guys, if you got to get out of a property, you’re going to sell to a five or five and a half cap. The stuff that was trading at a 4% cap rate, which for your listeners is simply the net operating income divided by the purchase price. And now that’s going to ripple into the suburban market. So you’re going to say, well, if I can buy downtown Charlotte at a five cap, do I want to buy a suburb of Charlotte like, you know, 30 minutes outside of town at a five cap? I think I want to get a six cap for that or a six and a half cap for that. You know, so we’ve certainly started to see pricing improve. But an old friend of mine told me one time, if you’re going to catch a falling knife, you really need to grab it by the handle. And I don’t know if we’re quite there yet on a lot of the suburban stuff, so we’re sort of taking more of a wait and see approach. On acquiring more multifamily. I think next year is going to be a really good year to be a buyer.

Ben Erskine: Yeah, I mean, I won’t add a whole lot to that. I think that Tom speaks to it well. We’ve been really, really patient, really slow to deploy over the past, you know, really 15, 18 months now, you know, kind of reading the writing on the wall early last year and then certainly have felt like there would be an opportunity on the back end of everything that’s happening. And it’s maybe been a little slower than we thought it would be to kind of be realized. I do think that there’s patience. There has been some patience on the part of lenders, Right. A lot of lenders have said, hey, fundamentally, we do see the support here. We do see the [….] growth. We understand that debt service is going to eat into a lot of that. But if we can kind of get through the woods, we’d rather not take possession of the asset. Right. There’s been some patience. How long that will last, I don’t know. But I think, you know, putting it simply, there will be a separation of good operators from some operators that have just hopped into a market that was benefiting from constantly compressing cap rates for a decade where, you know, you could kind of limp through a business plan and make it work. That’s not really the case anymore. So we do think that there will be really good opportunity probably in 24 a lot of it in 24 maybe. And in the 25 as well.

John Coleman: Hey, Ben, before we leave that topic, I know that this is the faith driven investor podcast. And I know that one of the things you’ve been so great about doing and perhaps you as well, Tom, is pioneering this spiritual integration within multifamily area. Could you talk to us, apart from the financial dynamics of multifamily right now, what are some of the opportunities for faith driven investors for spiritual integration in multifamily that you’re seeing emerge?

Ben Erskine: Yeah, I mean, there are groups that have been doing great work for a long time. I think we’ve discussed groups like Apartment Life in the past, which is a not for profit that partners with the owners of apartment buildings and is really tasked with developing community right point into the fabric of community, ultimately using that to develop relationships and just have an onsite presence that’s pretty distinct relative to a lot of property owners. And ultimately that accrues to the business plan because you know better community translates to better retention, often better attraction of tenants. They’ve got some incredible statistics. You know, a tenant with deep relationships in their apartment building is between 30 and 60% more likely to renew their lease. And reducing turnover is such a driver of margins in apartment investing. So that kind of stuff has been happening. I mean, things that get us really excited are starting to see creative applications in other corners of the housing market. You know, senior living is an example. How is that market of tenants and community members different and what would loving on those folks look like? How could you be kind of curate a plan around an assisted living in a memory care community that looks different than an apartment community? And on the other end of the spectrum, what about student housing? Right. There are some really cool opportunities in student housing. On campus, Off campus. Pouring into the lives of those students with the same heart right. And it can all accrue to the benefit of a really excellent business plan. Those two things can can work together.

Tom Hahn: Yeah, and I’ll chime in and 100% agree. I think what we’ve tried to do is so we recently expanded our staff and brought on several people that are really tasked with community engagement events across all of our holdings. And you know, on the multifamily, we tend to own more of these kind of B, B minus properties. So we call that like workforce housing. It’s not really affordable like, you know, voucher or section eight, the older models like that. But you know, you have a lot of families, have a lot of people that tend to stay in place for a while. It’s difficult to attract like an apartment life model works a little bit better in newer products. That tends to be where their teams would prefer to live, you know, But we’ll go down and do food trucks, we’ll do backpack. We partnered with the local school district down in Tupelo, Mississippi, on a project we have there and gave out a lot of backpacks. And it was really cool, you know, And this little girl comes up to Jason Autrey, who runs like an engagement and said, why is this backpack so heavy? And said, oh, you need to open it up and look inside and there’s notebooks and stuff. And she was just blown away. And, you know, we’ve had residents come up and pray with us and just talk about how the other owners have never done this before. A lot of it is just how you do your business, you know, just taking care of things the right way. It’s very easy to slap a band aid on a problem or take a shortcut. And a lot of these operators just want to get in, improve and get out, and then they leave behind a lot of, you know, half fixed things. And residents that have just been residents have come to expect that their stuff’s not going to get fixed. And when we can come in and do it the right way the first time, which I think is our call to do as part of loving the poor and working for justice, you know, it leaves a big impact. We’ve had residents reach out to us even while we’re raising rents and say, I’m proud to live here now, and they don’t want to move because they’re worried they’re going to go down the street and, you know, try to save 30 bucks a month on their rent. But going to be back in a situation where stuff’s not fixed. So, you know, it’s a real holistic approach.

John Coleman: That’s awesome. And producer Joey has reminded me that we should engage in some shameless self-promotion here and that the faith driven investor website has a redemptive real estate series live on video in the library right now with the stories of places like Launch Capital, Walden Fields in the Marsh Collective. And so if you’re interested in this topic, apart from the expertise of these two fine gentlemen here, there is an entire video series where you can delve into this more deeply, Ben, I think you want to do jump in with the closing work.

Ben Erskine: Yeah, you know, I was just going to chime in and brag on Tom and PDP Prudent growth for a second because he won’t, you know, the work that they have done. He and he mentioned Jason Autry is really innovative and exciting in terms of how they’re viewing retail real estate in a way that has really been pioneered already in multifamily. Right. So what does community investment look like in a retail center? It looks different than it does in an apartment building, But when you’ve got, you know, the nail salon and the coffee shop and. A local restaurant and the Taekwondo studio, and you’ve got people coming in. Can you hold an event there? Can you invite residents and community members in? Can you love on them in a distinctly Christian way? It’s really exciting to just think about the way that they are pouring into the lives of these people, investing socially and spiritually in retail, real estate. They’re leaders in the space.

John Coleman: Let’s stay on this topic for a minute on retail, because I remember pre-COVID in my old firm when we were talking about real estate. The most frightening area of real estate was retail, right? The big trend or one of the big trends everyone was talking about was the collapse of retail. People don’t go to malls anymore. They don’t go, you know, they don’t go shopping in physical stores. There was the rise of Amazon, etc., and all the skepticism about retail. Let’s stay on that topic, because, Tom, I know you’re deeply now, what does that look like now? Is that still the case or have those dynamics shifted? And then I would love to hear more of your insights on what Ben just mentioned, how retail can actually serve a redemptive purpose in development.

Tom Hahn: Yeah, no, thank you. You know, retail has been I’ve invested in retail for 20 plus years, both personally and with prudent growth since 15. And you always feel like you’re the underdog trying to convince people that, hey, we can actually do this and do this profitably. So, you know, you don’t get the respect right that the multifamily and the industrial guys get. But it’s been very interesting. I mean, I think that going back over 20 years leading up to the great financial crisis of 08 to 10, we were building in this country a little over 200 million square feet of retail every single year. I mean, it was I think we had a huge amount of oversupply. Everybody was building strip shopping centers, grocery anchored centers, and in 08 that really fell off the cliff. Right. And I think we dropped like 40 million square feet and 50 million square feet a year. We kind of recovered, got close to a hundred, but we’re back down now. Last year, according to Costar, we delivered the least amount of new constructed retail space in over 20 years. And I think what’s happened is household formation. You know, people continue to move to the suburbs and we’re that supply demand imbalance has really started to correct. So we now have the lowest vacancy rate that we’ve had in 20 years. COVID, we like to think about the fact that we’re buying a shopping center in small town America in a secondary tertiary market. You’re really buying the community where people go. So if there’s a Walmart and you’re buying the Wallmart […….] center, which is, you know, typically in the parking lot of a Walmart, there’s a shopping center, right, with like a great club and a pizza place and so on and so forth. You think about small town America, particularly in the Southeast. I mean, that’s where you go to get your kid’s first haircut. That’s where you’re going to grab and get lunch. You’re going to stop by the bank. You’re going to you know, you see your neighbors. You know, it’s a that is an activity that people will continue to do with or without Amazon. And during COVID, obviously, COVID was scary at first with this is it, you know, it’s over. And I’ll say real quick, the crazy thing about COVID was leading up to COVID. We all wanted to buy stuff that was Amazon proof, right? There was Internet resistance. So that meant what? Gyms, restaurants, service based stuff as opposed to people selling things like a clothing store and then boom, all that stuff got shot down during COVID. There was a little tough sledding there for, you know, 4 to 6 months. But coming out of that, what all of a sudden happened was everybody stayed home. So suddenly, suburban retail has real and there’s lots of articles on this. The Wall Street Journal had some great reporting on just the return of the open air shopping center, the neighborhood strip centers. So lots of different names for them in the suburbs. Right. And there’s a real disconnect now between urban core downtown where, you know, you still have 25, 30% vacancy and the offices. And it’s a big difference. You don’t want to own a sandwich shop in the lobby of a 40 storey building in San Francisco. But you’re quite happy to own a sandwich shop in a suburb of Charlotte, let’s say. So we’ve seen really strong foot traffic. I’d say our leasing activity has never been stronger. We have about 45 retail shopping centers in ten or 11 states right now. When you say 600 or so tenants and our vacancy rate is less than 5% and some of it’s planned vacancy because maybe you had to carve out a space to put a tenant in and you have this straggling 500 square feet that’s never really worth finishing out. So our true vacancy is very, very low. So we like the dynamic. And getting back to the spiritual integration model, like Ben said, we love knowing that if we’re going to own a shopping center in a community, we want to try to bless that community right on back to like Jeremiah, working for the good of the city. It’s like, Hey, I own this thing. How do you do that? And we found it’s a combination of reaching out to tenants. A lot of our centers, we might have a church, we might have a, I don’t know, a consignment shop that’s linked with a Christian ministry or just a general secular ministry. You know, if there’s an entry point like that, we’ll try to springboard off of that. Say, Hey, do you guys want to help, too? We want to help to underwrite and host a community day. Bring people out or a sidewalk sale or We have like a youth theater. It’s run by a Christian family moving into a center that we own outside of Hilton Head. And we’re going to be grand opening down there for them. Like roll out the red carpet, welcome them. The other tenants are excited about it, you know, so they’ll participate. And there’s lots of interesting conversations that come up when you start to do that. So the tenants love it, the community loves it. We make great relationships with important people in the community, right? Whether it’s a planning board or we’ve even had lenders come to us. This was kind of blew me away when you thought about this. But we do borrow from banks and some of the local banks. They like that publicity, right? So they’ve come and offered to underwrite the cost of the event. We got financing on a property outside of Virginia Beach terms that were probably 50 basis points lower than market because it was a credit union and they saw what we were doing to some of the brothers centers and they said, We want to lend to you guys. So anyway, it’s a virtuous cycle, which is what you would expect if you’re doing the right thing. You know, it kind of comes back around. So, yeah, that’s our feeling.

John Coleman: That’s an awesome overview, Tom, and a very rosy picture in the spirit of going now apocalyptic. Let’s bring up the elephant in the room, guys, which I think everybody’s concerned about, which is office. You know, gosh, between the interest rate environment and the fundamental dynamics of rising remote work, hybrid work, you know, people borrowing at very low rates, which are now resetting even as vacancies rise. I have seen some absolutely terrifying predictions about the office market. Then maybe to start with you, what is your outlook for office? And are things quite as bad as people are characterizing them or is there some hope on the horizon?

Ben Erskine: Well, first, I just want to say thank you for letting Tom talk about wonderful things in retail and spiritual integration. And I get to talk about the apocalypse in office. This is fun. Yeah. You know, we’re not active office investors at this point anyway. I’ve spent a lot of time in the office sector in my previous career, and I think it is it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I think Tom mentioned on the front end that, you know, vacancy rates right now across the country are north of 20%. And that’s what I’ve been reading as well. The way that most office leases work, at least the big chunky ones for corporates, is there long dated write these are five, ten, sometimes 15 or longer year leases. And so, you know, when a big corporate user has a lease expiration in 2027 and realizes that they only need about half their space, they might just punt that problem to the lease expiration. And so there are big chunks of underutilized office space that will hit the market in the coming years based on those long dated leases. There’s a lot of pain yet to be felt. Fundamentally, I don’t know how this corrects. It’s very difficult to redevelop most office space to other uses. You know, a lot of people think, well, just convert it to housing, right. And kind of hand it from the left hand of the right hand. But the reality of those floor plates, the reality of that construction and the support systems for the building, it’s just very, very difficult in nine out of ten instances to convert. So I don’t know exactly where that is going. There are bright spots, right? Not totally dissimilar from what Tom talked about in retail. You know, you get into some secondary markets and smaller office buildings and there’s tightness, right? Small users that are now obviously in close to home. There are some bright spots. But by and large, you know, I think that the 20% number across the country is going to continue to go up for a little while. I think that urban cores like, you know, downtown San Francisco, downtown Chicago are going to be in a tough spot for a while. I mean, it’s hard to understand exactly how that corrects. Valuations are down dramatically.

John Coleman: When it does feel like they’re going to be massive winners and losers. To your point, and I’ll invite Tom into this. But, you know, you think about tech oriented cities like San Francisco that also have major city problems right now where people are moving out where there’s crime. It’s tough to understand who’s going to occupy all that office space in downtown San Francisco right now. And even in Atlanta. My observation would be, you know, Atlanta is a pretty booming market. There actually is a little bit more return to work than in some major metropolitan areas because Atlanta was shut down for less time than a lot of major cities. And there weren’t commute problems as there were in some of the big metro markets like New York. But there are winners and losers. When we were looking for office space, I go to some complexes that were 96% occupied and it was very vibrant and everybody wanted to get in. And then I’d go into some buildings where they would tell me their occupancy was 50%, you know, because that’s what the leases covered. But there was no one in the building. It was a ghost town. I would have guessed maybe 5% of people were actually. In the building. It was almost haunting to walk through to see how empty they were.

Ben Erskine: And there was a pre-COVID trend right there, kind of the arms race, the amenities race. Hey, tenants want to be in the new class a building with the sweetheart amenities and the gym and the, you know, the conference center and kind of a concierge service. I mean, there was an arms race of the best amenities. And I think that continues post-COVID. If you look at where net absorption is, again, broad strokes around the country, there’s actually been positive net absorption in class, A space like the tranche of buildings that were built after 2015 has had something like 100 million square feet of net absorption. But everything that’s dated earlier than that has had hundreds of million square feet of negative net absorption. So it’s there is kind of a traunching of quality and a flight to quality.

Tom Hahn: Yeah. And I’ll chime in. It’s a bit like once again, the suburban versus the urban, what we’ve found because we just got some new office space in Charlotte. We have seven people staffed out of there now. And you know, it sounds a little bit, John, like your experience. I mean, we were looking for space. When you look at a smaller space, you want to be walkable and kind of a nice part of town and you want to have inexpensive parking. Those spaces are still pretty much leased up. You know, there’s not a lot of that type of product out there. When you think 20,000 square feet of space in a 40 storey building in downtown, there’s going to be more of that. And I think workers want to live. They want to work near where they live. They want an easy commute, they want easy parking. Anyone can walk outside. So these cities, these downtown districts have the crime problems. They’ve started to lose some of their businesses. And then that’s another headwind now that they’re facing, like who wants to work downtown if like half the restaurants aren’t really open and it’s not like a cool, fine hip place, whereas like the south end of Charlotte, like booming, you know, Buckhead and areas like that in Atlanta are booming. So it’ll be interesting to see how it works out. And I agree, Ben, you’re right. I mean, the repositioning, you know, prewar buildings, I think one of the big things is do the windows open or not? You can’t really make an apartment if you don’t have it’s code violations. So prewar stuff, Yeah, you might be able to renovate that into, like lifestyle housing or apartments or hotel use. But all the new stuff with the fixed glass sides, there’s really not much else you can do with that. So it’ll be interesting.

John Coleman: Well, I know we’re coming up on the end of our time here, so we’re going to do two more questions We always end with what are the two of you learning through scripture that you’d want to share with folks before we do that, maybe a concluding question. We haven’t touched on industrial, we haven’t touched on a couple of other areas. Anything else that you’d highlight right now is an interesting dynamic in real estate broadly or potentially an interesting opportunity for those listening. And Tom, maybe just start with you briefly.

Tom Hahn: Yeah, I’ll say real quick, because I tend to be a glass half full kind of guy, but if I had to be, you know, just fair to the other side, I still think that we don’t know if we’ve seen the end of the banking crisis and the impact on lending. We’ve been a little bit saved in our space by non-bank lenders like insurance companies. Life goes are very active lenders on the kind of thing that we’re purchasing. But it would be I think your downside scenario would be there’s continued stress in the non systemically important banking sector which could really ripple through a lot of small town America and secondary markets. And I think that if you see a continued I mean banks are starting to lend again, but their rates are not very attractive and they want to see you put substantial deposits into their bank in order to get a loan. So, you know, most people are bypassing that because there’s still other avenues for borrowing. But, you know, that’s a potential risk is something we think about. Industrial real quick. Just we love industrial. We do prefer smaller pay multitenant kind of stuff as opposed to like, you know, 120,000 square foot single tenant warehouse. But there’s still pretty good demand. But even that is starting to soften just a little bit. It’ll be interesting to see. A lot of people have been building that for a long time and we might need a year or two to absorb the stuff that’s been built. But I still do believe that, particularly with the smaller base stuff, contractor stone and tile guys, carpet guys, they need the showroom or their offices in the front and the warehouse in the back, and we don’t really see a significant letup in that type of product right now.

Ben Erskine: Yes, built on that. I’d just say two things. One, kind of thinking about industrial, I think there’s six or 700 million square feet of industrial space under construction right now. So the supply keeps coming. To Tom’s point, the bulk of that is big. BLOCK industrial, right? These are quarter million, half million square foot developments that were supporting some of the major logistical needs around the country. That’s a very different part of the market than is small bay kind of flex industrial space, which as we have seen, continue to stay pretty strong even in the face of some softening kind of broad based industrial demand. And then the other thing I would highlight, I alluded to it earlier is just senior living. We think that when you look at the demographics go forward, you know, the population group over the age of 85 is going to double yet again. By 2040, it doubled from 2000 to 2020, it’s going to double again. And so we think that senior living is going to be well positioned in the decades to come, in particular, assisted living and memory care. It got hit hard during COVID and is still digging out of that hole a little bit. But we think that there’s some opportunity there.

John Coleman: Well, guys, this has been a fascinating discussion of real estate dynamics. I think real estate is one of the most interesting assets in the world right now because of all the dynamics we’ve talked about with interest rates, with the COVID fallout, with a number of other things, structural housing shortages in the U.S.. To conclude, The faith driven Investor podcast, maybe just a circle to spiritual matters, which we always like to do. We like to ask you just if there’s anything you’re learning from Scripture right now, even apart from real estate, that you’d want to share with our listeners. And Tom, maybe we’ll start with you, but is there anything on your heart right now that you’re learning you want to share?

Tom Hahn: I think I’ve been doing a deep dive over the last year or so into kind of anxiety and stress, and how do you manage that? Curtis Chang has a great new book. For those of you familiar with his work over at Good Faith podcast on Anxiety from a spiritual perspective. And you know, when you’re an entrepreneur, when you run a real estate, there’s always something to be anxious about, right? I mean, are the rents getting collected? Is this problem getting fixed? Like, what am I doing? What I like to do is read through the Psalms and really try to zero in. I recently read and really meditated on Psalm 91, for example. And when you see these great Psalms of David and references like Psalm 91, verse four, he will cover you with his feathers and under his wings you will find refuge. His faithfulness will be your shield and rampart. You know, one thing I’ll try to do when I’m mentoring and talking to young entrepreneurs is say, like, you need to learn to personify those types of writings, right? And reflect on the market forces are the, you know, the things that are coming up against you and how are you going to respond to that? And just like in the Old Testament times returning to Jehovah, you know, the Lord, your God will be your refuge and your strength. And so I often think about that and pray about that when we’re dealing with difficult issues and difficult stressors that come up. And I find that it really helps to alleviate some of the anxiety and the stress and kind of re ground you and remind you why you’re doing what you’re doing and that, you know, this too shall pass and we just try to do the right thing and push through.

Ben Erskine: Yeah. There’s a book I read about a decade ago called Anxious for Nothing by Max Lucado. It’s pretty good in that direction. And I’ve been reading through First Kings, and it’s bigger than just real estate. But there’s a passage where Solomon is just praying for wisdom and discernment, and that’s a prayer that is not unfamiliar to me. But it hit home when I was reading that this week. If there’s one thing that’s helpful in real estate in life, it’s wisdom. And so just pursuing kind of faithful, godly wisdom consistently is something I’ve been thinking about a lot now.

Tom Hahn: And John, I just want to give a shout out to Ben. He gave a nice shout out to me. But I will say that Ben, the work of the faith driven investor movement in particular and sovereigns capital, and there’s a lot of overlap there to encourage us. You know, Henry and I have talked about this for years, about how do you think about a spiritual impact around a nonresidential investment. And, you know, when we brought on Jason and the work that we were doing, I mean, Ben’s team was encouraging and really was a great resource for us to start to think about how do we do this, how do we do this well, how do you kind of measure things? So, yeah, we’re very, very happy that you guys encouraged us to take some more significant steps in that direction. So thank you.

John Coleman: Ben Erskine’s a pretty good guy. I would agree with you to say, well, listen, Tom Hahn Prudent Growth, Ben Erskine Sovereign capital. We are so grateful to you guys for coming on and sharing today and hopefully we’ll get you back in a rosier time. On Mark’s in the market in six months or so, we’ll all be able to talk about how there are better times ahead. But thank you very much for coming on today and for speaking with our listeners.

Tom Hahn: Thank you.

Ben Erskine: Thank you so much.

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This week, Finny Kurruvilla from Eventide Asset Management joins us to talk about public equities with a specific focus on biotech and healthcare.

Episode Transcript

John Coleman: Welcome back to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is John Coleman and this is our monthly marks on the Market series where we talk to experts in investing. Coming from a Christian perspective who can comment on current events in markets today, we have a very, very special episode and a very special guest. Finny Kuruvilla is with us today. Finny is the co chief investment officer and founding member of Eventide Asset Management with a couple of partners with whom he founded the firm. Eventide is a long standing member of the faith driven investing community, although they do a variety of different investments in both private and public markets, Finny has more degrees than I could possibly capture here, including MDs, PhDs and master’s degrees from a variety of awesome institutions like Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, MIT and Caltech. And he’s a leader in health care investing as well as broader investing. Finny, thanks so much for being on today.

Finny Kuruvilla: Great to be with you, John.

John Coleman: Well, I want to leap right in. We’ll get a chance to dig into more of your background later. But everybody’s been kind of whipsawed by markets over the last year. It’s been a pretty volatile time in markets, and I don’t think that health care investing has been any different. What is the latest? What’s the current state of the markets in health care investing now?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah, you’re right, John. It has been very challenging for markets broadly and in general. One of the things we’ve seen is that more interest rate sensitive domains in the market have been especially hit hard. So that tends to be domains that have growth farther out. So more high innovation, high financing type industries have been punished. And so that definitely includes aspects of health care. So one set of health care companies that has been especially hit hard is biotechnology companies. So they tend to be long duration. So most of the value is and many years from now, they also have high capital needs in terms of financing. So they often have to go to the market to raise more money given that they’re usually not profitable. So those have been challenged. There have been some bright spots in the middle of all of the difficulties. So in general, one of the things that we’ve seen is that cash flow positive companies have done relatively well. And so, for example, a lot of small medtech companies have done exceptionally well. This has been a great year for M&A. We can talk more about that. So we’ve seen a lot of companies appreciate on the back of very robust M&A from the larger companies. And then we’ve also seen domains like cancer screening do really well, Alzheimer’s disease, which has been something that has become a passion project for us here, has been another area of significant growth. So there has been some bright spots in the midst of what’s been a challenging market. And overall, we think that the long term drivers are positioned really, really well for health care. And so we continue to be excited about the space.

John Coleman: When you mentioned the duration of biotech investments and especially innovative health care companies that require a lot of capital and how they’ve been sensitive to markets recently, particularly, I imagine, interest rates and just the M&A markets having previously dried up. I’m interested to get into that. If you were to take a look today, do you think the air has been let out of those markets so far from a macro perspective, or do you actually think the macro environment still has more room for these securities to decline?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah. So generally speaking, those companies have had the stuffing knocked out of them to the point where they’re priced at very low valuations. And the typical company and especially in the biotech side, has declined somewhere in the 50 to 80% range. So it’s taking a very significant hit and that began a little bit more than two years ago when we’ll talk about this probably later. But when some of the covid enthusiasm went away, there are a few areas where some companies still look a little expensive. But I would say, broadly speaking, the industry looks very cheap. And if you use long term measures of is the industry expensive or is it fairly valued? It certainly looks fairly valued. One of the things that’s challenging in our space is how do you value companies where you can’t use price to earnings or price to free cash flow or EBITDA, but are some of the more classic measures of valuation given that most of them are not profitable? And so you can use measures instead like enterprise value divided by cash on the books. So that’s a measure of roughly how much enthusiasm there is in the space. And of course, you have to look at burn rates as well to make sure that you’ve normalized there. But on those measures, for example, last summer was actually an all time low in the space in terms of valuation. It’s gotten a little bit better since last summer. But on the whole, I would say that the companies are valued quite inexpensively.

John Coleman: And you touched on this previously. Look, I think most of us have the perspective that health care has pretty good fundamentals. Right now, broadly speaking, in the sense that it’s a greater proportion of us spend, at least internationally. It is. If you think about biotech and if you think about some of the areas in health care in which you’re focused, obviously markets have disconnected, but have you seen any change in the fundamental forward outlook for the companies themselves or for the industry? Or is that still universally positive as health care continues to increase?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah, in general, it’s gotten quite a bit stronger for these companies. So I’ll give you a few examples of what are the leading indicators of health for these companies. So the first is the demographics of the population. So one of the things that I think most of us know is that as you get older, you tend to use a lot more health care and those last 1 to 2 decades of your life use a lot more health care than you’ve used in the earlier younger portions of your life. And I think as almost everyone is aware, the world is getting a lot older where a lot more of a gray haired society. Last year was the first year in history that China’s population actually declined. Even in Western Europe, Japan. We’re seeing tremendous shifts in demographic structure there. So that bodes very favorably for the industry and that is likely to continue for years, decades to come. That’s number one. Number two is there has been tremendous technology innovations that have occurred in the last few years. I was a practicing physician up until roughly 2006 or so. And I look back at how we were treating patients, particularly with some of the diseases that we used to see, and it almost looks primitive. Just 20 years ago, what we were doing compared to what’s happening today, I mean, if you had told me in 2023, these are some of the therapies and how they’re going to be used, I would have said, sounds a little sci fi to me, but it’s happened and the pace of technological improvement has been just astounding. So just to give you a little bit of a flavor for this, when the human genome was first sequenced in roughly the year 2001, it cost about $3 billion to sequence that first individual, and it took roughly 12 years. So $3 billion in 12 years. Today, you can do that for less than $1,000 and it takes less than a day. So the costs have shrunk from 3 billion to less than a thousand. And then what used to take 12 years. Now it takes less than a day. And that pace of innovation far surpasses even what, for example, we’ve seen with Moore’s Law and semiconductors and computers getting faster and being able to have more memory on board. And that kind of just incredible gain in technology and then knowledge in terms of what are the parts of our genome that are responsible for health or disease. We have grown literally exponentially in the last 20 years or so, and most of those discoveries have yet to make their way into medicine. So there’s a lag of at least ten years or so between when someone comes up with a good idea before when it’s actually used in human populations. And so this kind of technological improvement is just incredible. And we are we’re right on the cusp of what promises to be a very exciting century of innovation. I sometimes say that we humanity in the year 2100, so most of us sadly will be dead and gone. But our grandchildren in the year 2100 will look at us today in terms of our health care, similar to how we look at cavemen who are using leeches and spears to slash their bodies for health care. Right. That’s going to be the degree of of improvement that happens in this century because we still, you know, even very basic questions like, you know, how does memory get made and stored? What is really the sustenance and the genesis of cancer? How do we really understand autoimmune disease? You know, we still don’t really understand at a deep level what causes those disease. And so we’re in this place now of how can we take these little seeds of insight that we’re getting from these genome studies into being real actionable therapies that can be useful in human populations. And so it takes time to develop that. And that’s going to be what happens over the decades to come. And so that shift to these more high tech type therapies using some of these insights from the genome technologies is what’s to come. And that’s only going to be accelerated. By, for example, AI which if we have time, we can talk about some of that. But another tremendous tailwind that the space has is we have more and more economies coming online that have the ability to access modern health care. And so you look at India, for example, that is slowly but surely starting to become more of a modern economy with access to something like what we have in the US. I mean, we’re talking about, you know, 1.4 billion people coming online. This doesn’t even count. For example, countries like Africa, a lot of Latin America that still really doesn’t have access to the kind of health care that we do in North America. And so that’s another tailwind now where we’re talking about massive populations. They’re going to be coming online in future decades. And then you layer on the fact that the diseases of, let’s call them addiction. And so this includes obesity. So, so much of obesity is really an addiction related problem. Tobacco of mental health, which is often tied in to a lot of issues of technology, loneliness, social media. Yeah, very profound structural reasons for that. These are going to be the kinds of diseases that biotech can at least partially address, maybe not fully address, but at least partially address. So we have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about some of these tailwinds that we have going into the century.

John Coleman: Well, just a small caveat, and then I want to pick up maybe with some examples. Going back to the areas that you’re most excited about that are near commercialization, those that you’re actually keeping an eye on. But I’m not a physician, but one of my children has a rare genetic disorder that only about 1600 people in the world have her family of disorder that they’ve actually sorted out now, that they can study genes. And only two people that we’ve discovered have her exact gene disorder. And what’s amazing to me is both the progress we’ve made to be able to even diagnose a thing like that, which wasn’t possible a handful of years ago, but also the progress we need to make to understand how to treat it or how to deal with these different disorders that aren’t well studied or don’t have a clear path. And so it is that dichotomy of just remarkable progress. But 100 years from now, you have to think our current approaches are going to look pretty primitive to whomever is practicing at that time. So many great threads to pick up on. But you had mentioned Alzheimer’s and cancer, for example, in your initial comments. And one of your themes here was the advances that are coming that people don’t even know about or that have lagged behind the research and are just coming to market. What are three or four areas that you’re keeping an eye on that you think are actually near to coming to market that are most exciting?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah, I would certainly include Alzheimer’s in that. So that is one that is just now coming to market like this year. And so I’m right now in Boston, Massachusetts. So just across the river, there’s a company called Biogen that got FDA approval for just last month, in fact, for the very first disease modifying treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. And so while in general, one of the sad but true facts of medicine is that a lot of what medications are doing is they’re addressing symptoms or manifestations of disease rather than the root cause. The root cause is often very difficult to address and sometimes technologically impossible. But one of the things that we have now just in the last six or nine months made progress and as a society is the root cause of Alzheimer’s disease. And so the way to think about Alzheimer’s is that in your brain, in an Alzheimer’s patient, what happens is there are these what are called plaques that are forms that just like you get a plaque on your tooth, you get a plaque in your brain, it’s a three dimensional ball. And this ball ends up killing the neurons that it touches. And if you go in under a microscope and take out this little ball and ask what’s inside of it, there’s two main proteins, two main components inside of that ball, and one of them is called a beta. And we’ve known this for decades and decades. This has been widely known. But how in the world you cleanse the brain from this? Well, somebody had a very clever idea. Which is to use our immune system to clear out these plaques from our brain. So our immune system, of course, we use all the time to fight off infections or to fight off cancer. Not a lot of people appreciate that. That’s a different story. But here somebody figured out, well, hey, why don’t we take an antibody? So an antibody you can think of, it looks like a Y. And the top part of the Y binds to it sticks to something that is dangerous, say, a virus or a bacteria. And when the top of that Y sticks to its target, it sends off a signal to the immune system saying, Hey, there’s something bad here, come and kill it or can’t clear it. And so these cells come in and they eat what’s at the tip of that Y, and they end up degrading it and thus getting rid of the infection. Well, somebody said, well, why don’t we develop an antibody against this, a beta, this component of these plaques, the chief component of this plaque, and then we’ll administer it to patients, give it to them in their veins, let the antibodies swim through the veins, go into the blood, and let the immune system clear out. And then let’s measure what if we can clear it out so you can do what’s called PET scanning or PET imaging just to see if the plaque is still there. And then let’s also measure cognitive function. So looking at memory, for example, executive function, some of the things that we all value that you lose, unfortunately, with Alzheimer’s disease. And so these data were presented last year, and it was very exciting that they showed in these PET scans, if you administer this antibody, it’s called the cannon MAB that is just given IV. Like I said, that indeed you get very profound, in fact, almost complete clearance of these plaques within a few months. And then more importantly, if you measure the clinical function of the brain, the executive function, memory, etc., you see a 27% improvement cloud there, which is a big deal. And I have a father in law who recently passed away from Alzheimer’s disease. And it’s a absolutely awful way to die because you lose so many of the functions that really make us human. And so when this came out, I mean, I was jumping up and down with joy here because Alzheimer’s is a disease that we don’t need to suffer from if we can get at this root cause. So there’s now a second company, Eli Lilly, that is going to hopefully get FDA approval soon. And now that the industry has a foothold, one of the things that biotech is really good at is once it gets a foothold, then it can iterate and improve, right? But you need something solid to be able to grab a hold of. And so that’s definitely the first area that I’m watching very carefully. And if you look at Alzheimer’s, morbidity and mortality, in other words, deaths and suffering both from patients as well as family and caregivers, this could be a real game changer.

John Coleman: Well, an example, if any, just of what you described about the pace of technology. I’m reading a book called Outlive by a guy named Peter Attia. Right now. I don’t know if I’m pronouncing his last name properly. And I just finished a chapter on Alzheimer’s, which was honestly that the most hopeless of the diseases or disorders that he was discussing. Right. Because there was really no progress in preventing or treating it other than behavioral modifications, exercise, things like that. And what you’re describing seems to have manifested almost entirely since even that recent book came out. I mean, that’s a remarkable amount of progress against a disease that really had no, from what I understand, effective treatment until now other than preventative things like exercise and diet.

Finny Kuruvilla: That’s right. Yeah. And Peter Attia is someone who is a very smart physician and that book is not that old. It had just came out for this reason. Yeah. Yeah. And the fact that it’s already outdated, there is testament to how quickly the industry is changing. The other area that I am very excited about is cancer screening. So I think most people realize that if you can catch cancer early, then the probability that you can get it removed and live a long and normal life is much more viable. When people find cancer late at stage three or stage four, then that’s tend to be when you get the really bad outcomes. So this, for example, explains why pancreatic cancer or ovarian cancer, these are organs that are deep within your abdomen. They’re typically not caught until later on stage three or stage four. And so the mortality from those diseases is much higher than it is, for example, with diseases that it’s much more obvious, like, say, a basal cell carcinoma, something on a scan where you can just cut it out because you see it. And so early detection is half of the battle with cancer. And it will one day be the case that we’ll go in for our annual exam with our PCP and they’ll simply draw blood. And as it turns out, your cancer is shedding small amounts of DNA. Into your blood. It’s very, very trace amounts. But these small amounts of DNA have signatures of mutation on them that if you have the right technology, you can identify them and say, oh, you know what? This person who came into my office, they’ve got early stage prostate cancer or breast cancer or ovarian cancer and then go in and do scans and surgery to get rid of it much more early and getting ahead of the curve. So that’s really exciting. We’ve already made some headway in that. So one of the classic examples of a company that we’ve invested in now for a very long time is using stool to detect colon cancer. So the traditional way of looking for colon cancer is a colonoscopy, very unpleasant. I think most people know how you do that. You have to drink some very unpleasant solution that clears out your bowels and along to but the camera gets put up your rear end and you have to go under a form of anesthesia conscious sedation for that. Who wants that? I mean, that’s not very pleasant. But now that’s becoming much more standard of care is somebody mails a box to your home and you use the bathroom. You just take a piece of stool, fish it out of the toilet, put it in the box, mail the box back to the company. And what they will look for is in the stool a trace amount of this mutated cancer DNA and use that as an early warning system, so to speak. And we know that the sensitivity on detecting cancers there is greater than 90%. So it’s very good. And now it’s becoming standard of care that starting in age 45, you can do that instead of having to do a colonoscopy. Wow. So that’s pretty awesome for especially those of us who are in our forties or beyond that don’t necessarily want to do the whole colonoscopy ordeal. And so there are that company and then a couple of others that we’ve been investors in are looking at how can we make this purely blood based? Because even that’s got to deal with your own stool. That’s not the most pleasant. And why not have it be the case that when you go into your annual visit, just do the blood draw while you’re getting your cholesterol checked and your blood glucose and all that, that they’ll just additionally check for a panel of cancers. And so that’s very, very exciting. The blood based cancer screening is still yet at the experimental stage and it’s not yet prime time, but I think in the next 5 to 10 years it will be something that becomes much more routine. So I’m very, very excited about that as a way to address the second largest killer of people in America, which is cancer. Speaking of which, there’s so many other areas that I’m excited about, but I will say that cancer, for me is near and dear to my heart, primarily because when I was a physician, a lot of the patients that I saw had leukemia or lymphoma or one of these blood related malignancies. And I just think it is just awesome the kind of technology that we have enjoyed that is completely changing the way that the cancer is done. So let me illustrate here with an example of something that I think is very profound. So in general, with cancer, the most common cancer of childhood is leukemia. So a lot of us probably know individuals who had leukemia as a child or parents who have children who have had leukemia. It’s very common. And the way that leukemia therapy has progressed is astonishing. So in 1970, if you had a child with leukemia, he or she only had a 10% chance of making it to adulthood. So fairly bleak. Today, it’s somewhere around 85 to 90% chance of making adulthood so much, much better. Odds of survival there. And that’s on the back of a lot of great therapies that have been developed in the industry. And in particular, though, one of the things that we’ve known for a long time is that so much of what cancer therapy really is, is it’s giving basically poison to a person. And what you’re trying to do is you’re trying to poison the cancer faster than you’re poisoning the rest of their body. And there is a window that you can try to thread in order to make that happen. But it’s a narrow window. And it’s also why, for example, the side effects from chemotherapy are what they are. They will kill more rapidly dividing cells. So when you’re giving these poisons, the cells that are dividing the most quickly are going to be the ones that take the hit. So your hair will fall out. As it turns out, the hair cells are rapidly dividing your gut. Cells are turning over very rapidly. And so you’ll get nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, fatigue. A lot of these things are the consequence of these very crude. Let’s give them poisons. And in fact, a lot of chemotherapies are, in fact. Iterations of chemicals that were used in war in order to kill major populations. It’s kind of scary. So this is how a lot of chemotherapy is built on, is just let me give a fancy form of poison and try to thread that needle very carefully. Well, when I was a physician, as I said, that was the mainstay of what therapy would be is giving these glorified toxins or poisons. I’ll tell you a true story here of a little girl named Emily. She was diagnosed at five years old with this leukemia, the most common form of childhood cancer. 85% chance of cure. 85 to 90 parents were told, hey, if you’ve got to pick a cancer, this is the one to get. They’re all like, okay, let’s go through the therapy. She goes through the therapy and lo and behold, she relapses, and so does she’s in this 10 to 15% that aren’t likely to make it. And after this relapse, it comes back very aggressively. And as cancers often do, when they come back, you just feel really bad for the patient because you very quickly run out of other options. Parents are told she’s got weeks to live. They were told, just put her in hospice, make her comfortable. But unbeknownst to them, this was at CHOP at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. There was a brand new therapy that was being developed, and she was literally the very first patient to get it. So, wow, this therapy is so cool. Let me explain it to you. So I mentioned to you before that one of the jobs that our immune system has is to kill cancer. So a lot of us realize our immune system kills bugs, bacteria and viruses, but we don’t appreciate enough how our immune system is actually fighting cancer all the time. So as it turns out, every single one of us has some low grade cancer that’s brewing somewhere inside of us. But most of the time your immune system is scanning your whole body and it’s looking for something different than normal. And it’ll kill that cell because it recognizes it as foreign. And so that is something that we should wake up and thank God for every day, because our immune system is our number one anti-cancer prevention agent that we have. And this is the reason why, for example, HIV patients who’ve got weaker immune systems often die of cancer. Well, one of the things that somebody figured out to do is why not take someone’s own immune system and the T-cell in particular, and we’ll take it out of the body and we’re going to infect that T-cell with the virus. And what we’re going to do with this virus is it’s going to be a good virus, not a bad virus, but a good virus. And that virus is going to have a homing beacon on it that’s going to train that T-cell to go straight to the cancer and kill it. And so they did this with Emily. They just took out her blood, just a simple blood draw, isolated those T cells, treated them with this virus, and then re infused her own, now modified T cells back into her body. And guess what happened was that in 23 days, her leukemia was gone. And wow. Yeah, it’s amazing. And you could actually watch. And they did this. These scientists and physician did this. They would take regular blood draws and they would watch these modified T cells grow in terms of numbers in her blood as they were amplified and as they saw this cancer and they would go and kill the cancer. And so this particular therapy, it’s called CAR-T, is FDA approved now. And we will often see somewhere between 60 to 80% what’s called complete responses, meaning that the cancer is completely gone. So Emily, as I mentioned, was diagnosed at five years old. She’s in her twenties now. She’s very healthy, walking around, doing great. This is like awesome, right? Like we’re engineering our immune cells to do things that they otherwise wouldn’t do and train them to kill cancer. And so this whole frontier of using the immune system. Using things like CAR-T immuno oncology therapies to train it to get better at killing cancer in a more directed manner, as opposed to giving the simple and kind of toxic style chemotherapies is going to be the future. So that’s another area that I’m really excited about. So this will be three of my favorite areas Alzheimer’s disease, cancer screening, and then training the immune system to kill your cancer.

John Coleman: Finny Those are amazing examples. What a cool story about Emily as well. One thing you’re describing I’d love to dig into for investors is the life cycle of these medical innovations is quite long. Right. Starting with university research or basic research, culminating in commercialization through a pharmaceutical company, etc.. And across that spectrum, there are both private markets and public markets investors. Talk to us a little bit about the role that both private and public markets play in this space and also just any difference in the way markets are reacting in the current environment between those two. Like are you seeing as big a collapse in private markets as in public markets, for example, and valuations, or is that disconnected somewhat?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah. So there’s certainly a vital partnership that exists between the private and public markets. And so there’s this whole field of venture capital that goes and finds these promising ideas that incubates them from early stage all the way to a hand-off of an IPO into the public markets. And if it weren’t for America’s very vibrant venture capital industry, the world would be very impoverished. So some of those therapies that I just mentioned to you, like those CAR-T, those those trained immune cells came from venture backed companies and approaches. So this is an essential partnership. In general, public markets aren’t ready to receive these very early ideas yet until they have some validation. And so that validation takes place in the womb, if you will, of these private vehicles that are typically venture backed. And so in terms of where we are there, there’s this phenomenon that’s existed for many years where the public markets tend to lead the private markets. And so when there’s a lot of great opportunities for IPOs, then that tends to be a way that the private markets get their exits. You know this industry very well also, but the private markets need liquidity. They need some way to exit in order to raise more funds. And so when the public markets are open and the private companies can go IPO and eventually the private investors can generate a return on their capital. And so for that reason, there is this lead that the public markets have on the private markets. There’s certainly an interdependence there. But in general, that’s the relationship that we’ve seen right now. We’re in this place because of the public markets, as we talked about earlier, declining in their valuations. And in general, it’s harder to IPO when people are a little more fearful. That’s meant that private funding has also declined and there’s not nearly as much money that is going into Series A’s and B’s, as was the case a couple of years ago. And so that’ll change and things will eventually normalize and go back. But right now we’re on the private side. We’re about where we were in 2013. So we’ve actually taken quite a step back in terms of amount of funding there. So that’s quite unfortunate. But we’ve seen this happen before and in general, once we get a little more animal spirits, once we get more excitement in the public markets, then IPOs will open up and that will enable some of these private companies to IPO, which will then enable the private companies, the venture companies, to go and raise more capital. So that’s high level where we’re at right now.

John Coleman: Which is interesting because we’re closing in on highs again in public markets, but it still is lacking. I love the term animal spirits. It still is lacking animal spirits a little bit, right, Because we’re you know, the public equity markets have recovered, but you’re still not seeing an IPO market quite as active in an M&A market. There’s still a lot of caution, I think, right now.

Finny Kuruvilla: That’s right. And the reason that the public markets are doing well, especially the Nasdaq, but even the S&P 500 is because their market cap weighted and so or I think most people understand this, but in case someone doesn’t. If you look at the S&P 500 and that index, it’s not equally weighting across 500 companies. It’s overweighting on the companies that have a higher market cap. So Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, those kinds of companies have a significantly larger weight in the index. And because there were such fears about recession really for the last year or so, what’s happened is that people have gone into these mega-cap names, especially mega-cap technology companies, and that has pushed up these indices. But where we’re at right now is the dispersion, meaning the spread and valuation between the largest cap companies and the smallest cap companies is actually two standard deviations wide of normal, meaning that that spread is very vast right now. So you’ve got really expensive companies on the high market cap side and then very inexpensive, very cheap companies on the small market cap side. And so it’s unusual that we have this kind of spread happen. In fact, often it’s the case that a lot of the big companies are regarded as sleepier companies that maybe don’t have as much growth ahead of them and the small companies, that’s where the action is because they’re going to grow and there’s a lot of excitement there. But right now, partly deserved the large cap companies have shown because of AI and some other reasons that there’s cause for excitement there. And in general, the very predictable defensive quality is that people now appreciate that Google and some of these other companies have they actually have done really well through even hard times where people have realized they’re not quite as cyclical as people once thought. So that’s the reason why we’ve seen some of this disparity in valuation.

John Coleman: So I want to hit a couple of other quick topics before we get to some of our concluding questions. One, I promised myself I was not going to ask because it felt like asking about Bitcoin like four years ago. But you mentioned artificial intelligence. So I am going to ask, where do you see the intersection of AI and health care right now? What are you most interested in at that intersection at the moment?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah, I recently did a call on this and AI in general and where it’s at. And one of the things that we need to differentiate is that AI is an umbrella term and there’s a lot of differing component technologies underneath it. The one right now that has everybody excited are the LAM, large language models. So ChatGPT is the most famous bard, which is Google’s version, is the second most well known. And these are not as sophisticated as a lot of people might think. They’re very impressive, no doubt. But basically what they’ve done is they’ve ingested huge amounts of text and they’re very good at predicting what will be the result of, say, an autocomplete. In a lot of ways they’re just glorified autocomplete functions. Certainly impressive, no doubt. And there’s good reason why there’s enthusiasm there. But in terms of really achieving the kind of. Judgment and rationale that humans have. They’re a long way away. Now, how can this breakthrough and LAM help the world of health care? It certainly can. And there’s a few dimensions of assistance that we can have. I mean, in general, I think these LAM will be a lift to most industries. Just because it’s I recently heard an analogy that it’s like you’ve got an assistant sitting next to you who’s passed the AP English test. Maybe their judgment isn’t that great yet. So maybe they’re like a high school student who’s just gotten a four or five on their AP English exam. That’s kind of what you have now as an assistant sitting next to you. And I use chat GPT for when I want to quickly get a digest of a lot of material because it is good at doing that, where I think it’s going to be helpful eventually and we’re going to need a few years of investment here. But besides that general uplift from having an assistant next to you, who is this AP English High School student who’s done well there, it’s going to be helpful for predicting things like what drugs will be especially effective to target certain medications and then what populations will be more precisely targeted from a particular therapy and receive greater benefit there. So for things like pattern detection, it’s going to be amazing. One of the areas that I think is one to watch and I’ve been saying this for like ten years, is if you take head to head a skilled physician and some kind of AI algorithm and you give it a bunch of patients who have a bunch of symptoms and you say who can predict what the patient really has, the handwriting is on the wall that AI is going to be the physician over time. And that’s something that is going to be very transformative to health care because computers are just way better than humans at doing pattern recognition much more rapidly. So you think about radiology looking for the spot on the lung as a cancer or not, or, as I said, kind of classic internal medicine diagnosing symptoms. And so what this means is that there’s going to be a replacement eventually, probably not that long from now, of a lot of traditional doctors who are basically doing pattern recognition with some of these AI engines that are going to completely trounce humans at that. And just like today in chess, we know the even the best chess players, Magnus Carlsen and Caruana and all these people, they can’t be the best chess algorithms. The best doctors will not be able to be these highly skilled and well trained AI algorithms. So look out for that and advise your children and those thinking about going into medicine to be cautious about how they choose their career and make sure that they’re choosing one that’s going to have some longevity.

John Coleman: That’s fantastic. Before we close with what you’re learning through Scripture, it’s kind of obvious the redemptive nature of the work you’re doing just from the stories that you’ve told so far. But maybe comment briefly on how you think redemptive investors or faith driven investors should think about participating in health care, because there obviously are some things like ethical quandaries that you encounter, etc.. But how do you think about your faith in the context of investing in this space?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah, there’s a lot to be said on this, and I know you’re also a deep thinker in this, but I would say that in general the world has gotten somewhat skeptical about progress. You know, if you go back and look in the early 20th century or mid 20th century, there was a lot of optimism about technology. And then eventually it turned, especially in the back half of the 20th century, to a lot of fear, you know, Terminator and things like that. And we have forgotten that the creation mandate that God gave to all humans starting in Genesis one, is something that we have yet to realize, and it is something that health care is probably, in my opinion, almost certainly the single greatest area of where technology and progress can manifest itself in positive ways. And so as investors, as we’re thinking about where to allocate our capital, this is an area that I think just screams out unmet need here. This is an area where we can feel really good about advancing the global common good. There are other areas where sometimes I look at and I think, wow, what is the true common good that this is promoting? How is human flourishing really going to come from this company? You know, not mentioning any specific companies here, but often it feels like people are simply chasing profits as opposed to thinking about how does God want us to be allocating capital to really meet the needs of humanity? And I think health care is a very special field and that if you have some basic screens in terms of, you know, for example, not promoting abortion and things like that, then I think we. Can feel really, really great about how we can better advance the lives of millions and millions of people all over the world.

John Coleman: Well, Finny, we want to conclude today with what we ask all our guests, which is just what you’re learning through scripture that you want to share. I know you’re a deep thinker on these topics, and you do have a very thoughtful spiritual life. So is there anything right now that you’re studying that you want to share with others?

Finny Kuruvilla: Yeah. So I recently have been doing a fairly deep dive as a family and a couple of Paul’s letters, namely his letters to the Thessalonians and then his letters to Timothy. And one of the concepts that I’ve been very captivated by and doing a lot of further biblical study on is a term that I got this from a commentary, but the term is mimetic discipleship. And so if you think about how Jesus did his discipleship, it was very much this process of following him. And then in the process of following him, we become transformed. And so you can summarize discipleship and the line from Jesus in Matthew 4 where it says Follow me and I will make you fishers of people or fishers of men, the older translation say, And so you follow. After Jesus, you imitate him. You have this. Essentially what the disciples had was a 24 seven school of imitating Jesus and following in his paths. And then there’s a promise attached to that following, which is, I will make you fishers of the people. And I think we’ve moved more into an informational based way of trying to do discipleship as opposed to a mimetic or following way of doing discipleship. And it’s in a sense like not surprising given how a lot of our education models are operating. But you give someone information via a sermon or a book or something like that which have their place. And I’m certainly a fan of good sermons and good books, but I think more often than not, we’re lacking that component of mimetic discipleship. And mimetic is, of course, the adjectival way of describing the word imitate. And here I would point to the example of the field of medicine. So can you imagine what medicine would be like if you just gave people some textbooks and you said, Go read these books and go be a doctor? Right. It would be like, I don’t want to be treated by someone who’s gone through that kind of training. Instead, what happens is your first two years of med school are the textbook years. The second two years you’re watching somebody else do something and you’re helping them. And then when you start internship and residency, they’re watching you. But you got somebody over your shoulder. And eventually, after four years of that, then they release you to be able to train somebody else in that process. And so it’s tilted much more at this aspect of mimetic training, you know, mimetic learning where you are. Yeah, you’ve got to know some information, of course, but you really don’t become a doctor until you’ve completed all of that. And I just think, how much of Christianity have we built on more of an information transfer type system as opposed to a mimetic system? And this came up because and especially first Thessalonians, it’s a dominant theme, which I had personally missed, of how Paul is describing how he establishes his church and in this case, Thessalonica. And it’s a great study to do to go through and trace out that theme of where is Paul appealing to this concept that really Jesus initiated what mimetic discipleship is all about. So yeah, I’m very excited about this and wanting to go deeper into this.

John Coleman: Finny Kuruvilla I wish we had 3 hours for today’s podcast instead of just this hour. I think you have left us with a lot to think about and a lot of positive hope for the future with innovations in health care. So we’re grateful to you for coming on the Faith Driven Investor podcast today and for all you’re doing it, Eventide and elsewhere. Thanks so much for being with us.

Finny Kuruvilla: Thanks, John. I appreciate being with you.

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Despite the size and scale of the continent, there aren’t many female fund managers in Africa.

Today’s guest is trying to fix that.

Adesuwa Rhodes launched her firm, Aruwa Capital, because she saw untapped investment opportunities in West Africa in the small to lower mid-market. Aruwa has a specific goal to close the gender gap in Africa and become a case study that shows the business value of investing in women as fund managers, entrepreneurs, consumers and stakeholders in society.

She joins the show from her home in Lagos, Nigeria.

Episode Transcript

John Coleman: Welcome back to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is John Coleman. And I’m very excited about our conversation today with Adesuwa Rhodes. He’s the founder and managing partner of Aruwa Capital Management. I had the good fortune of running into Adesuwa the first time a couple of years ago, right as she was starting Aruwa. And it’s been a privilege to watch her since she since closed her first fund as she’s made a number of investments which we’ll get to talk through today and has embarked on her second fund here shortly. And it’s just a real success story of a number of things, including her own personal leadership journey, gender lens investing, investing in women and investing in emerging markets. So Adesuwa, we’re very excited about this conversation. Thank you for joining the podcast today.

Adesuwa Rhodes: Thank you, John, for having me. Really excited to speak to you today.

John Coleman: Absolutely. So maybe let’s dive in first on kind of the topics. I want to get to your personal story. But, you know, part of what you’re doing is investing with a gender lens or investing in or alongside women as a part of your strategy at Aruwa. And you have a LinkedIn banner image, for example, that reads, Women don’t need a seat at the table. We’re creating our own tables. Talk to us a little bit about what’s motivating about that for you and what investing with a gender lens or in women looks like for you at Aruwa.

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, that is a very important quote for me, and it holds significant meaning to me because it reflects my own perspective on how best to advance women’s economic empowerment and women’s progress. It really embodies the idea that women should not be waiting for opportunities to be given to them or rely on existing structures or systems to grant them a place at the table. But we need to be proactive. We need to take the initiative if we want to forge our own paths to success and our own path to leadership. And this was really, you know, particularly relevant for me as I looked at, you know, the number of women that were capital allocators on the continent in Africa. You know, for my previous fund, we were fundraising for about four and a half years. And I looked around and I saw that there were really only less than ten women founded and led private equity funds on the whole continent, you know, a continent of 1.3 billion people. Women make up 50% of the population. So it was very clear to me that there are systemic barriers that are preventing women from starting and running their own funds. And if we continue to wait for those opportunities to be given to us, you know, nothing is going to change. So that part really just embodies, you know, be the change you want to see in the world. Take initiative, be proactive and create your own table. Even if your table is small to begin with, you can create your own table and, you know, be in charge of your own story. So that was really what prompted me to set up Aruwa because I wanted to, you know, in my own small way, hopefully be an example for other people to look at so that when they’re looking around and trying to find other, you know, women and applying funds in the continent, at least they can see one more and that may encourage them to, you know, battle themselves and that may encourage them to start up their own funds. And and as we see more success stories of, you know, women creating their own tables, I’m hoping that will also make room for more people to want to support women that are looking to do so. So, yeah, it’s really kind of important that as women, you know, we take our own steps rather than, you know, asking for permission. We take our own steps, you know, to try and influence and impact other women. Because as women see us, they are also encouraged, you know, setting up Aruwa and you know, where we are now. It’s such a blessing that women reach out to me and, you know, they say, well, look at seeing what you’ve done in Aruwa. You know, I have confidence to start my own business. So I have confidence to start my own fund because I you know, now I know that it’s possible. So that was really the kind of the onus of setting up Aruwa was trying to be that change. And, you know, I was asking for permission for a long time. And I thought, you know, it’s better to be the change and create your own table that can influence others.

John Coleman: I just wanted to pick up on that of, you know, serving as an example to others, because I can definitely see that Adesuwa. I noticed you’re quite active in terms of media, in terms of social media, in terms of encouraging others. But in your personal journey, where did you get the confidence to take that perspective? Who was it in your life that really encouraged you to take that path if there was anyone? And how did you come to the decision that you could be a leader in this space and an encouragement to other women?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yes, I don’t think it was any one particular person. I think my faith played a huge. Role in that. So, you know, we were fundraising for this one for four and a half years. I had a lot of conviction. And you know, what I had built on the ground in Africa because I was headhunted by a European private equity firm to set up their Africa business. I had a lot of conviction in what I built, but we just weren’t making headway. So, you know, in my prayer time, you know, I was praying. I was fasting a lot, you know, just trying to ask God for direction and what to do, because I quit my job at Jp morgan to embark on this journey. So I always kind of seek advice from the Holy Spirit and pray. And, you know, what am I what should I do next? And I felt very strong leading that, you know, everything that has happened in your life so far is for this time. And it was really at that time that I took the decision to buy out my previous partners, you know, exited my investments, sold some of my shares on my Jp morgan bonuses, and approached the partners and said, look, I want to buy this out. And, you know, I rebranded the company to Aruwa in July 2019, and I was just 29 years old at this point. So a lot of people were looking at me like I was crazy, you know, They were like, well, you know, the fund hasn’t worked. I’ll just go back to Jp morgan. But I felt a very strong meeting from God that, you know, you’ve gone through all this. You’ve got in the track record from Jp morgan, you’ve come back to Nigeria. This is your chance to be that example. This is your chance to really leave a legacy and, you know, leave a life of impact where you could be an example to other women that may not have the courage to bet on themselves. You know, as a black young woman, you know, it could be something very, very powerful to be that example in the world because there’s really not enough of us. So, yeah, it wasn’t really one person. It was really in my time of quiet prayer and reflection that I got that leading to do this and get that courage and get that confidence, even though I just come out of what people would have deemed a failure because we never raised that $100 million fund. So, yes, I looked crazy, actually, to a lot of people, but it was my faith and my trust in God that if he has placed this on my heart, then he will fulfill purpose and he will fulfill what he’s told me. So it was really my faith that kept me going. And, you know, it’s been a seven year journey until Aruwa finally closed. And I don’t think you can do that just by human capacity. It was definitely in my faith. It was definitely the encouragement that I got from Scripture. It was definitely the encouragement that I got that, you know, God can be trusted to keep his promises. If you said something, he will fulfill it. So it was definitely my faith that got me to where I am today. If I didn’t have my faith, I would have quit a long time because.

John Coleman: Well, and it is you know, I didn’t highlight this as part of the introduction, but you had a very institutional quality background, so to speak, with Jp morgan, with other firms. I mean, you’re obviously well-educated in demand. You had this remarkable career path before you if you chose it, and yet you chose to strike out on your own and start something new and build something as the leader. And even as you tell this story, to really emerge from something that didn’t work out exactly as you had planned. But to take an even bigger risk on yourself is so inspiring, I think. And, you know, you hear it with a lot of entrepreneurs in retrospect, where they bet on themselves and the mission that they were following. But that also takes a lot of courage. And it’s so fascinating to me to hear the role that faith played in you. Getting comfortable with that.

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, I know it was very important, and I think if I didn’t have my faith, I would have quit. And, you know, when we announced the, you know, thankfully by the grace of God, we were able to announce that I was subscribed first because, you know, final close for Aruwa last year. And it was very important to me to make it known publicly that, you know, I give all the glory to God, because without him, I wouldn’t have stuck it out and I wouldn’t have, you know, had the faith, the courage, the confidence to keep going despite, you know, rejections, delays, you know, you know how fund raising is. It it takes a lot of no’s before you get the yes. So it was really my faith that that pushed me through it, for sure.

John Coleman: Yeah. Fundraising is one of those topics that’s not often talked about in our industry, but fundraising time or a second time fund is not for the faint of heart. It’s it’s in for investors. You know, it’s typically not what you’re best at, right? It’s, you know, I imagine you’re quite good at it Adesuwa. But people get into investing to invest, Right.

Adesuwa Rhodes: And this is not my favorite thing to do as well.

John Coleman: And you hear a lot of no’s before you hear yeses often. Right? Exactly. And even if you’re really good, I want to talk a little bit more about the way that you invest and maybe even dovetail that a bit with your faith story. Now, as I understand it, one of the lens is you use for investments at arua is the gender lens. So it’s not just you as an inspiring example, but you building businesses that actually in some way kind of partner with women in the community or uplift women. Can you talk to us a little bit more just about Aruwa and your investment strategy? And then if that’s correct, just how that dovetails with gender lens? And what does that mean in the context of an investment strategy?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Sure, sure. So at Aruwa, we are an early stage growth equity and gender lens investor. So we’re investing in businesses that have proven their business model, have existing demand for their product and service, but they’re just looking for that incremental, you know, scale up capital to pass that inflection point of growth. We are investing in necessities. So health care, fintech, access to power through renewable energy and also essential consumer goods. We’re focused on West Africa for now, so focus really on Nigeria and Ghana. I’m based in Lagos, so having that proximity to our investments is very important. But we have an overarching investment strategy, which is our gender lens investing strategy, which is we’re investing in businesses that are either led by women, you know, founded by women of co-founded by women, or businesses that have gender diverse senior management teams, or we are investing in businesses that may be led by men, but are providing an essential go to service that improves women’s lives in some way. So that is really all gender lens. We want to be able to impact women with our investments, either as founders, either as in management teams, because we believe that if we do that, it really trickles down to the entire value chain of the company where you can see gender diversity in the board, you can see gender diversity in the supply chain, you can see gender diversity in the customer base. So out of the nine investments we’ve made so far in Fund one, about 62% of those investments are led by women. And we’ve created about well, we’ve supported about 96,000 jobs, direct and indirect, and about 70% of those jobs are held by women. So we’re very, very excited about the fact that as we invest with this gender lens and being a women that’s allocating capital, we have this trickle down effect to gender diversity in our portfolio, which for us is not just charity or ticking a box. We see this actually as an arbitrage opportunity to enhance returns because very few funds are doing this, but also because of the role that women play in societies in Africa, where women are the backbone of families, they’re the backbone of communities, they’re typically the ones that are working, providing for their families. They’re able to reinvest about 90% of their income back into health care and education for their families. So it’s actually a significant multiplier effect in terms of social impact through the strategy as well. So we’re very, very excited about showcasing that intersection that you can have with strong financial returns and impact. We’re not sacrificing one for the other with the strategy. It comes really well together because of our gender that is investing strategy. So we’re excited to continue to showcase that.

John Coleman: So much awesome stuff to unpack there. And I want to circle back shortly to this idea of the role of women in West Africa and just get your perspective on where things stand. But before we do that, it might help listeners to understand the model that you’re discussing a bit more. If you were able to just tell us about a couple of the companies you’re invested in and the way that they achieve those goals that you’re discussing, I’d love to hear some stories.

Adesuwa Rhodes: Sure. Sure. So we invested in a company called Coolbox. They’re a provider of solar enabled refrigeration in Africa. So obviously we have a power problem. Over 700 million Africans lack access to electricity. So in off grid areas, we have market women that are selling frozen fish, frozen meat that because of the lack of access to power, they have to throw their products away. And you know, that impacts their livelihood, that impacts their income. What cookbox have been able to do is provide a solar enabled freezer refrigeration system where they can have access to power for up to four days in off grid areas as long as they have access to the sun. And this has been game changing. You know, we have seen sales of this business since we invested grow by more than three xs, about 75% of our customers that are using this product or women. We have so many testimonials from women that have said that, well, now that they have the coolbox they can provide for their family, they can send their children to school. We’re selling these units in 18 countries globally, so not just in Africa as well. So again, we’re seeing that multiplier effect of impact because as the impact of woman in Nigeria. You’re also impacting the women in Cote d’Ivoire or in Senegal or in Kenya. So that multiplier effect, it’s really, really strong. So this is a business that’s co-founded by women. It’s also impacting micro Assamese in off grid areas that are earned by women where not only are we seeing three xs in sales and seeing, you know, rapid growth and profitability, but we’re also seeing increase in the livelihoods and the incomes of these women that otherwise wouldn’t have a product to sell because of a lack of access to power. So that’s one that we’re really excited about and scaling up that impact across Africa. So that’s one business we’ve invested in. Another business we’ve invested in is a company called Omni Retail, their B2B e-commerce business that’s digitizing the informal trade. So we have a lot of informal mom and pop shops across Africa that, you know, have very fragmented access to logistics, very fragmented access to fulfillment. They don’t have technology to help them manage their stock or have insights into the prices of goods. So what omni retail is able to do is completely digitize their fulfillment process, provide them with, you know, inventory management systems, provide them with working capital. Omni retail right now is working with about 65,000 retailers across Africa. Over 55,000 of those retailers are women. And we’ve seen that these women are able to grow by over four x once they get this digitized solution and have this app where they can track their goods, track their inventory, track their fulfillment. So, again, this is another way where we’re seeing rapid growth on the business side. And this is a business that’s doing about $160 million of GMV. They’re doing about $50 million of net revenues, seven and a half percent gross margins. You know, probably the best in the industry. But on the other hand, we’re impacting growing the businesses of 55,000 women across Africa. So these are the types of businesses that really get me excited where we’re able to invest in really, really viable, attractive fundamentals, but also, you know, have enormous impact on women across the businesses that we invest in. So those are just two examples. We have more and I can keep talking forever, but it gives you a feel of, you know, the types of businesses where it’s whether it’s consumer goods, whether it’s renewable energy, where we can see this real impact on women.

John Coleman: That’s awesome. Adesuwa Those are great examples and it tees up nicely. This thing we wanted to circle back with, which is just the status and role of women in West Africa. I mean, the inclusion of women in the economy obviously is transparently very good for economic outcomes. Right. It’s such a key component that activation is a key component of economic growth at a macro level. But it’s also incredibly important for equality, for inclusion, for a number of other things. And it’s different in different parts of the world right now. And as you mentioned, Africa is a continent of 1.3 billion people with societies that are dramatically different from one another. I know you’re dominantly investing in West Africa, including in Nigeria, where I believe you’re based. Would you mind just giving us a window into what is the status of women’s rights, women’s inclusion, women’s economic activity in the countries in which you invest? And how is that changing over the last few years?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, no. So I think we still have a long way to go. But, you know, I think you’d be interested to know that Africa has the highest rates of female entrepreneurship in the world. Is that. Wow. Yes. Yes. Four times more than Europe. And this goes back to, you know, why impacting women is so critical and has that multiplier effect, that whole continent like Africa, because women are really the breadwinners. And people ask me, so why do women in Africa work so hard? And this is just my own theory. I don’t know if it’s right or not. But my theory is because women in in somewhere like Nigeria are having about five children on average. Right. They’re not waiting around for a man to come and feed their children. You know that maternal instinct, you go out and work to make sure that you provide for the children that you birth. Right. So I think that’s why we have such a high rates of female entrepreneurship, is because African women have a lot of children. And what we’ve seen in society is that that level of entrepreneurship and energy is not being matched with the level of opportunities and the level of capital that these women are able to access. So if we take last year, for example, only 4% of venture capital dollars went into female led businesses. It was 25 x less than the capital that went into the mail at businesses. And that just doesn’t sit right with me. In a continent and an economy where we know that women are driving access to basic goods and services for their children, for their communities. Right. So we still have a long way to go. You know, when I started Aruwa that number was less than 2%. So we’ve made some progress in the last three and a half years, but still, we still have a long way to go. I think what’s also interesting in a market like Nigeria is you have that on one side in terms of entrepreneurship. But if you think about female leadership and women in senior positions, we’re not doing too badly, actually. So there was a circular that was put out by the central bank. I would say probably seven years or eight years ago. Now that said that boards of the banks had to have at least 30% female leadership. So because of that kind of rule, we’ve seen a lot of drive to diversity across banks in Nigeria. And I think that’s something where, you know, that we’re proud of that. You know, we can say, okay, well, in senior leadership, in corporate, especially in financial institutions, we’ve seen, you know, inclusion of women. And I think that has kind of trickled down in society to make sure that we’re taking women seriously and senior corporate positions, not just in the financial industry. But when it comes to female entrepreneurship and giving women the same access to capital, the same access to whether it’s loans or equity, we still have a long way to go. And that’s why we’re excited about what we’re doing in Aruwa to make sure that we level the playing field for female entrepreneurs. That’s a really big part of our mission.

John Coleman: And what is the you know, you had mentioned how much faith had influenced the investing that you’re doing. Another question I had was just about what role faith plays in West Africa. In Nigeria right now, I know it’s a remarkably religiously diverse area, so it’s a pretty high numbers, especially relative to the west of people who are deeply religious, although that manifests in different ways. How does faith really manifest in the areas in which you’re investing right now?

Adesuwa Rhodes: So I think for us at Aruwa, you know, we I would say we’re a faith based organization, but we don’t have any sort of faith mandate that makes sense, you know, because of the construct of Nigeria and where we are. So we’re in the south. Most of the people in the south are Christian, more people in the north are Muslim. So just by the factor, even if we don’t have a mandate to only invest in Christians by de facto, I believe all of our portfolio company founders except for one, are Christians. So that kind of gives you that makeup in terms of how we are the area that we’re in, in terms of kind of the religious makeup. But I would say that faith for us, you know, I think it’s being able to pray with entrepreneurs, being able to, you know, support them in difficult moments. Yes, we’re investors, but, you know, treating them like human beings as well. I think the fact that we are all of the same phase where we can bump into each other in church, I think it puts a different dimension as well to the investing story and to the investing partnership. So I think for us, it’s great that we’re able to have kind of common faith with the people that we are investing in, but it’s not a prerequisite. And I would say that faith in our markets is a huge driver. You know, as you said, a lot of people are religious, whether that manifests as Muslim and Christian. But it’s a huge driver of what keeps us all sane and what can be sometimes, you know, challenging conditions. So, yes, I would say faith continues to play a role for all of us in this part of the world.

John Coleman: Yeah, it is such a fascinating place and I love to hear those stories and how it’s incorporated in the work that you do. You had kind of ended there by talking about how you are in a, let’s say, a dynamic part of the world right now where things change. And we’ve talked a lot about the gender lens investing, but haven’t talked a lot about investing in emerging markets yet. And I know many of our listeners are actually in emerging markets at Sovereign’s. We’ve done more in Southeast Asia, for example, than we have in Africa. But investing in emerging markets comes with its own opportunities. It comes with its own risks. Talk to us right now. Just about how you approach investing in the emerging markets you’re in and what different types of factors you have to pay attention to that a U.S. or a European investor, for example, might not. And what opportunities does that create that might not exist in the U.S. or Europe, for example?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, sure. So I think for us, we think obviously that there is tremendous opportunity investing in Africa and investing in the markets we invest in. We think that, you know, this is really the last frontier for growth. You know, a population of 1.3 billion. People. Africa will account for over half of the global population growth in the next 30 years. You know, we have, I think, the highest percentage of young people in the world. So we see this as really the last frontier for growth when it comes to, you know, how are you going to make attractive financial returns in the next, you know, decades to come? But as you said, it does have its challenges. You have to think about macroeconomic stability. So there are certain, you know, policies that may come in place that may, you know, alter macroeconomic slightly. They may be governments that come in place that change a policy that, you know, a business might have been profitable for them for a number of years. So I think the way that we think about it at Aruwa is how do we invest in defensible sectors. So I think in emerging markets, my view is you have to be a bit more focused. You can’t be a jack of all trades. Like maybe you can be in the U.S. where you’re a generalist and you’re investing in anything that’s exciting. I think you have to tailor your strategy to be able to withstand the shocks that come whether a macroeconomic shock or political shock that come in emerging markets. So how do we do that? We make sure that we’re investing in defensible sectors and necessities, things that the rapidly growing and urbanizing population will always need for the next 30 years. We’re always going to need health care. We’re always going to need access to financial services. We’re always going to need access to power. We’re always going to need essential consumer goods like food or, you know, other fast moving consumer goods. So I think that for us at Aruwa, we want to make sure and make it clear that to invest successfully in emerging markets, there has to be some element of focus, which is why, you know, we’re based here on the ground in Lagos. We’re investing in just Nigeria and Ghana because we’re based in Lagos. In Nigeria. We have that proximity to our investments. We have that proximity to entrepreneurs. So I think focus is very key. Another thing I would say is we believe that you also need to be a little bit more hands on in terms of not only corporate governance but also operationally as well. So we are very, very hands on with our entrepreneurs and helping them think through strategy and helping them, you know, implement finance, function upgrades, helping them think about the KPI they should be tracking. And we also sit on the boards of these businesses. So I would say that those are some of the nuances that are probably in our strategy because we’re investing in emerging markets that maybe if we are sitting in, you know, New York or city in London, we may not have those nuances. So I hope I answer the question. I kind of went off on a tangent.

John Coleman: No, you absolutely did. And, you know, I think, again, one of our partners, I think you met Henry Kastner. Africa is such a big focus of his right now, because I think what he sees and what many of us see is that it is the future in many ways. Right. I mean, you mentioned 1.3 billion people now, but it’s one of the few areas in the world. And again, I know it’s a diverse set of countries within the continent, So I’m painting with a broad brush. But I think it’s generally true that populations are growing. Right. Even Asian countries population growth has declined dramatically. China, for example, has a shrinking population right now. Japan does with the West, has obviously struggled to have fertility rates above replacement rate so that the economies aren’t growing organically. Africa is still booming. There is a lot of opportunity left through modernization because some of those countries have not yet fully developed and there’s a lot of focus on the area. And as you’re pointing out, there are these leverage points like working with women who are so central to the economy that can help you operate there. But it is important to have a local partner, we think, because understanding each of those countries, communities, areas in Africa, in Lagos, you know, in all these places is infinitely complex. And so having someone like you as a partner, someone who knows the area, is incredibly important, I think, for outsiders to just grasp that complexity.

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yes, I completely agree. And you’re absolutely right. You know, Nigeria is going to be the third largest population in the world in 30 years. So that’s somewhere you want to be investing and especially investing in necessities that that growing population will continue to need. So I completely agree. You know, we think it’s the last frontier of growth. We think that, you know, if you really want to make attractive returns, then Africa should be in your portofolio.

John Coleman: Can I ask you about one specific challenge of investing in emerging markets that we hear a lot and I know Nigeria has experienced recently, recently, which is currency fluctuation for non Nigerian investors, for example, for folks from Europe or the U.S. or somewhere else. Currency fluctuations can introduce a series of risks that they might not otherwise have to take. I know Nigeria’s currency has experienced some challenges recently. How do you think about that in the way that you invest?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, no currency risk is top of mind. You know, currency risk is one of the biggest risks to returns in emerging markets, as you rightly said. And in Nigeria, you know, we’ve seen the currency really devaluation over the last eight years with the previous administration. And what this administration has done is unified the exchange rate. So previously we had an official rate that was at around, you know, call it 460 naira to $1. And then we had a black market rate that is around, I call it 750 naira to $1. So that gap in the official black market rate obviously lend its hand to a lot of bad actors and obviously a lot of speculation and meant, you know, there was a lack of scarcity of dollars in the economy. What the new administration who have just come in in May have done is they’ve unified the exchange rate where we’re now seeing the naira kind of settle somewhere, kind of between 630 to 650. And yes, that’s going to hurt because, you know, a lot of people have been pegging their costs and, you know, their forecast to the official rate. But we believe that in the long term, because you’re able to drive out bad actors because of that wide spread that would actually encourage foreign direct investment into the country. So how we think about currency risk is because obviously we’re raising dollars from our institutional investors and investing dollars into these businesses is to make sure that a good portion of our portofolio are actually generating dollar revenues. So we have a company called Agro…… that exports superfoods to the US and to Mexico. 100% of their revenues are in dollars. We have a business called Remi Industries that manufactures eight different production lines of hygiene goods. They export their hygiene goods across West Africa and earn dollars. We have a business for tailor that is operational not just in Nigeria and Kenya. We have a business called Omni Retail that I mentioned is not just the operation in Nigeria, but also in Kenya and Ghana. So I think as we think of portfolio construction, we want to make sure that we’re investing in businesses that have export revenues in other currencies, for example, coolboxs, you know, selling, etc., maybe a refrigerator in 18 different countries across the world, Nigeria just being one of them. So you always have to have, you know, currency risk mitigation in place as you deploy capital in emerging markets. So either investing in businesses that have that natural hedge and it generates revenue in hard currency or another strategy we deploy is investing in import substitution. So as we invest in more local manufacturers, they’re actually shielded from a devaluation because they’re able to gain market share because a lot of importers are driven out of the market in that scenario. Or another thing we’re doing is also investing in very, very rapidly growing businesses between 2021 and 2022. Aggregate growth in our portfolio is about 70%. The average devaluation over the last five years has been about 18% a year. So we have different strategies to pull from as we kind of think of portfolio construction as a whole to make sure that, you know, you can kind of withstand some of the currency shocks and make sure that your portfolio is shielded from that. But over the last two decades in African private equity, that has, you know, currency has been the risk to return. So it’s very, very top of mind for us at Aruwa capital.

John Coleman: You know, I want to throw you a fun question and then end with some advice on Africa. And then we always ask the same question for our final one, which is just what are you learning through scripture? A fun question for you is you were a netball player at the University of Bristol and a couple of my my partners and I have had this discussion recently just about how well athletic leadership skills then translate into business, right? There are actually a lot of things you learn as an athlete, especially in a team sport, that then translate into good leadership later. First of all, what’s netball? And then secondly, what did you learn playing netball at university that you feel like is helpful to you today?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, so netball is kind of the English men’s basketball, I guess. So it’s like basketball, but you can’t move. So you grab the ball and you can’t move, you have to pass it. And the basket we have doesn’t have a backboard, so you have to. Learn how to swish Oh you goals there’s no backboard. Yeah so yeah I love netball I played netball in school. There was an opportunity for me to actually play professionally, but my parents said I had to stay in school. I couldn’t do that. So when I went to Bristol and I had the opportunity to play for the university team, I was really excited. But a lesson that I learned that was, you know, I was coming from school, you know, I was the captain of the netball team and I was kind of like, you know, quite good. But I came to Bristol and, you know, you’re in a bigger environment, you’re in the university setting, and there are other people there that are better than me, right? So I didn’t get into the first team, I got into the second team and I think that was a big lesson for me that rejection is okay. You know, there are moments in life where you may not always get what you want, but I had an amazing time over those three years in the second team where we actually won a lot of matches and it was a fun team to be in. So even though I was disappointed at the beginning that I didn’t get into the first team because obviously I was coming from a background where I was captained the netball team in school and you know, we had been quite successful. It taught me a lesson that God may sometimes place you in a place where you might think that you’ve been rejected, but it’s actually the right place for you. So I think that’s something that followed with me because there was another opportunity in my second year of uni where, you know, I really, really wanted this Goldman Sachs internship, but I didn’t get it. I got a Jp morgan internship. So I think God has been telling me every time that, you know, you may not always get your first choice, but trust me that I know what I’m doing. And, you know, wherever I place you where you’re meant to be. So that was a lesson that I learned. And I’m always learning that, you know, just trust God, even if you think that sort of thing that you want may feel like a failure or a rejection. You content and where you are and trust God that you’re in the right place. So that was what I learned from my netball days.

John Coleman: That’s awesome. That’s awesome. So I want to ask two final questions and the first is just a parting shot for those looking to invest in Africa or in particular to countries within Africa. We’ve talked about a ton today, but is there any final advice that you would offer folks looking to get involved on the continent?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yeah, I think you touched on it, John. I think it’s making sure that you partner with a local partner that’s on the ground, that understands the environment, understands the nuances of investing in this part of the world and, you know, being in partnership with them as we explore investment opportunities, whether that’s through a fund structure like Aruwa or through a co-investment structure where you’re making directs alongside them. But I think it’s very important to have partnerships with people on the ground because there are definitely nuances to investment in emerging markets and the best people to help you through those nuances, the people that are on the ground that understand the terrain, understand the risks, understand the opportunities, understand how to mitigate those risks. So, yeah, you know, I always say that if you don’t have Africa in your portfolio, you’re doing yourself an injustice. So, you know, I encourage people that are, you know, allocating capital or investing to be looking at Africa investments because it’s really the last frontier for growth. It’s really where you can have attractive financial returns. But also if you care about impact, you know, where also there are significant multiplier effects in terms of impact levels, job creation, poverty alleviation that are also possible here. And I just think you can’t achieve that in other parts of the world where you can do good financially, but you can also, you know, be impacting lives and having that intersection. I think it is pretty magical. And you can do that here in Africa. So please invest in Africa, but do so by partnering with a local partner.

John Coleman: Excellent advice. And we always close just by asking everyone what are you learning through Scripture right now that you think might be relevant to share with our listeners?

Adesuwa Rhodes: Yes, so. I’ve been reading a lot about Daniel recently and just kind of his story, so that’s kind of what I’m reading right now in my Bible study. And I think that what Daniel teaches me and what Daniel can teach everyone is just being very dogged in your beliefs and not letting society influence you. I don’t know if I’m getting too philosophical for this podcast, but I really love I really love how Daniel just didn’t give in, you know, to the King and to that what society was telling him to do. He was very, very focused on being contrarian. And I think sometimes to be a pioneer, you have to be contrarian. So I encourage entrepreneurs that are looking to start businesses or looking to, you know, bet on themselves, you know, looking to seek that promotion in the organization. Just believe in, be authentic to yourself. I would say don’t be influenced by society or, you know, don’t be influenced by what society may be telling you to think. Be confident in your beliefs and, you know, bet on yourself based on your beliefs. That’s what I’m learning from Daniel at the moment, so I’m getting encouragement from Daniel to continue to be contrarian and continue to, you know, pursue this gender lens investing strategy, even though sometimes people look at me like a crazy. So yeah, that’s the encouragement I’m getting from Daniel.

John Coleman: That is a great word to end on. You definitively are not crazy Adesuwa. You are doing amazing work, again. This is Adesuwa Rhodes, the founder and managing partner of Aruwa Capital Management, investing in West Africa, primarily Ghana and Nigeria and Adesuwa. We’ve been so privileged to have you on today and hopefully we’ll get to do this again in the future. Thank you so much for coming on.

Adesuwa Rhodes: Thank you so much, John. I really enjoyed our chat. Hope to speak soon.

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In this edition of Marks on the Markets, we’re joined by frequent collaborators, Justin Speer and Phil Jung.

Justin is the Principal and Senior Analyst at Sovereign’s Capital where he focuses on Private Equity. Phil also works with Sovereign’s as a Venture Capital Partner.

The two join John to give an overview of private and public markets as we head into Fall.

Episode Transcript

John Coleman: Welcome back to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is your host, John Coleman, and this is a belated monthly marks on the markets for September. Producer Joey has already disciplined me for this guy, so no one needs to write in. I know I’m a bit late on marks on the markets, but to make up for that, we have an extraordinary episode with two of my favorite people. Justin Speer is one of the leaders of our public equities complex at Sovereign’s Capital, and Phil Jung is one of the leading partners of our venture complex at Sovereign’s Capital. And today what we thought we would dig into is the current state of the markets broadly, but also what it’s looking like in public markets, what the economic outlook is, how we’re seeing the IPO market and also what late stage venture, an early stage venture are looking like along with how we’re coming alongside CEOs and other leaders in the midst of what continues to be a tumultuous environment. So, Justin, Phil, thank you so much for being here today.

Justin Speer: Thank you for having us.

Phil Jung: Glad to be on.

John Coleman: And Phil got in at 2 a.m. last night, so we’re expecting some really fun commentary out of him today.

Phil Jung: Yeah 3 cups of coffee so far. And yeah, it should be fun. Hopefully, hopefully this turns out okay.

John Coleman: Awesome. Well, I’m going to start with a little bit of a softball for both of you, and I’ll let Justin start so that Phil can drink a little more coffee. Just give us your current kind of 10,000 foot overview of markets. Justin, Obviously we want to get into both public and private. You’re a bit more public focused. Where do markets stand today in September 2023?

Justin Speer: All right. So we established a bear market trough in the third quarter of last year and have since had about a 25% recovery in the market, which is about the seventh worst, I guess, recovery from a bear market trough this far off the trough nearly a year actually was incredible. But positively, we’ve seen inflation, which was the number one problem for businesses and for all of us has really come off the boil in the last year. It’s actually it’s led into June, 12 consecutive months, so about 3%. And that’s where we’re hanging out from nine in terms of the headline inflation. And so that’s a good thing and that’s a function of what the Fed has been doing, aggressive, like the most aggressive tightening we’ve seen in at least 40 plus years with the Fed funds rate now at five and a quarter or five and a half. So we’ve had a monster move in interest rates and it’s really led to this. It’s an interesting backdrop. It’s a lot of just dichotomy. And what I’m saying, like in terms of big picture macro things that we’re seeing, we’re seeing consumer confidence has been pretty resilient, which is a function, I believe, of, again, excess stimulus that’s still in their pockets. We had $7 trillion of stimulus. It worked its way to the economy. We’re still working that down. And the other thing that’s really been surprising to me in the wake of the Fed’s tightening is the employment picture has been actually pretty solid. I would have expected and in fact, if you look at the yield curve and it was anticipating that we would see the unemployment rate move up, it really hasn’t moved up that much. And I think that’s really moved to the forefront of the challenges for business is just access to qualified labor. But on this front, I think that’s the balance Is the Fed, they’ve tightened. I don’t know how much more they need to go. I think the question is how long they need to hang out here. And we’ve seen a bifurcation in markets where housing activity has been pretty sluggish in general. Existing home sales, we’ve seen manufacturers struggling. If you look at the sentiment surveys for manufacturers, they’ve been subpar for a while, almost depressed. But on the other side of that, we’ve seen growth. Equities in particular have done really well. We’ve seen the emergence of generative AI, which has extended maybe some of the growth use or lifted the growth use for some large, large players in the market. So that’s supercharged some of this recovery. But it’s been a tale of really two different stories that I think the question is how this thing ends is can we get inflation down to 2% without breaking the economy? And I think if I look at valuations, for example, I’m getting two different rates. Large caps are actually kind of expensive. Large cap growth stocks are expensive value and small cap stocks are quite cheap. So the market seems to be saying two different things that the economy’s great for the large caps, but we may be entering a really potentially a pretty severe recession if I just look at the small cap valuation. So it’s one of the more complex backdrops that I’ve been a part of as an investor in the last 20 years.

John Coleman: Men, I want to unpack that a little bit more. But before we move to Phil, I wanted to follow up with one quick question. I think it was two or three months ago, it was accurate to say that it was nine or ten stocks, the mega-cap stocks that had driven more than 100% of the return of the S&P at that time. Is that dynamic still that pronounced Justin or has that moderated such that other larger stocks are growing in line with those mega caps?

Justin Speer: Yes. A year today the market. And this is the S&P actually the Russell 3000 is up about 18% year to date. And what’s really leading that is tech and communication services, which is Facebook, but they’re up over 40%. The broad tech sector, which is a big chunk of the market, is up 45%. Most of the other sectors are low single digits. You do have consumer discretionary, which took it on the chin. Last year is up 30%. But most of the other sectors are, you know, flat that up mid-single digits with the worst performing utilities and health care is down 1%. And of course, the regional banks, because of the bank turmoil in March, April, down 17% year to date. But yes, tech is really leading this thing, very big tailwind to the broader market from tech and digital. And consumer discretionary has come along here in the last few months.

John Coleman: It’s great. So Phil, moving over to you, I mean, you offer a dominantly in the private markets right now, particularly with venture backed companies along their growth from kind of seed to pre-IPO stage. Tell us what you’re seeing in valuations right now and how the market’s reacting.

Phil Jung: Yeah, well, first off, the last 12 year and a half, 12 months, year and a half, it was a tough time for the private markets and especially in the software space for technology businesses. You just heard in the headlines every week of large companies and private companies doing layoffs, reductions in forces and people looking for opportunities. Their next gigs because they were laid off, functional areas and team leads, all were cutting their budgets as well. You know, oftentimes in an executive team meetings, CEOs were asking each of their functional needs to figure out how they can trim their spend or expenses by ten, 20, 30%. So a lot of that happened. Now, fast forward to where we are at this point in the year. You know, there are starting to be signs of life. You know, green shoots or whatnot. And what we’re seeing in the private markets, you hear less frequently of rifts and further layoffs. A lot of that has already happened. A lot of companies in their first and second round of layoffs. And at this point, people are planning ahead for next year, 2024. And budget reforecasts have pretty much halted at this point for the rest of this year, and they’re not thinking forward. And so we’re starting to see signs of life expansion in average contract values. We see this in our portfolio as well, as well as perspectives in terms of growth prospects for next year. Hiring plans is slowly starting to pick up again as we go into 2024 and especially this time of the year, post-Labor Day before the holidays. This is traditionally a very active time for the private markets to be deploying and investing capital. People are back from their summer vacations and investment committees can now gather again and folks are looking to do deals before the holidays slow down again. And especially if you raised a fund over the last two or three years. I mean, you’re sitting on cash. Well, not cash, exactly. You’re drawing capital from your employees with capital calls, but you have a fund available that you are looking to deploy capital into in promising opportunities. So this is these next few months here. It’s kind of a sprint in the venture market of activity. So, you know, all I’d say there’s a cautious recovery that seems to be happening. If you look at a lot of the data that’s put out by Carta, Pitchbook, etc., valuations early part of this quarter and Q3 seem to be picking back up again from some of the lows in Q1 and Q2 of this year. So there’s reason to be optimistic and at least in the private markets for sure.

John Coleman: I want to come back to this question of the real economy, which Justin started to touch on both in the U.S. and potentially abroad, if you feel comfortable talking about that. You know, we’ve talked about on this podcast before that the most recent financial crisis was one of the strangest in recent history, certainly more echoing what we saw back in the 1970s than almost any recent period where you had this combination of supply shocks due to COVID, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, due to limited supply chain, is a hangover from COVID. And those incidents we saw massive inflation kicking in and the Fed having to respond to that as just in their rising rates. We saw this regional banking crisis that erupted in the middle of that. And so there were all these complex factors playing in. Certainly some of those seem to have calmed, at least from my perspective. The supply chain shocks seem to be normalizing for the most part. As Justin mentioned, inflation is headed in the right direction, although only with continued rising rates. What are you guys seeing in the real economy right now? Where do we stand with regards to where we were in that crisis? What are you paying attention to? And particularly on this front of recession in interest rates? Do you have a perspective on where we might be heading? And maybe, Justin, if you don’t mind, open this up on that front.

Justin Speer: Right. I think a lot of the challenges were just due to just these imbalances, in part due to the supply chains, due to absenteeism and people just staying at home from work in the immediate aftermath. But then. You tack on that stimulus. And it’s just fascinating to see that you saw money supply just take off like over 25% expansion in the money supply. And then people now have money to spend, but they don’t spend it on hotels and restaurants. Immediately they go out and they spend it on goods for shoring up their home and improving their home. So you saw in some instances like retail sales, like gap up over 40% year over year, it was insane. You know, retail sales are up 5%. So you’re pulling ahead in some instances, demand like more than five years in a single year. And so it just leads to these massive supply chain imbalances. And then obviously, the tail result of that is inflation. And so what the Fed has been doing is really trying to reverse some of that through the tightening measures, including increasing the Fed funds rate, but also money supply. And I think this is something that I’ve done some work on money supply contracted for the first time in 60 years in December of last year, based on sort of a statistical work and regression analysis that we’ve done. Money supply will have an impact in about a 12 to 24 month lag. So we are still yet to feel the full, long and variable lag of some of these measures. And I think that’s where a lot of questions lie with regards to the macro. I think that you’re going to still see some headwinds in parts of the economy in particular as the full manifestation of these actions from regulators or policymakers are continue to pay through the pipe on their way through. We’re going to see, I think, more of that manifest itself into the first half of next year. And so I don’t think we’re done. And that’s where the Fed is going to look at the data. It’s data dependent. The big one, though, that I’m watching in terms of the imbalances and the employment picture and employment, the unemployment rate is really a lagging indicator. If you look at job openings, the job openings are still well above historical levels. And if I look at it, are a little under eight or a little over 8 million job openings versus historically close to 5 million. But that’s come down from over roughly 12 million back in 2022. So we’re starting to see that come off of oil. And that’s going to go a long way in easing the pressures on inflation from wage. If that can continue, and I think that’s what we’re going to keep our eyeball on is really that is the employment picture. And the real question is, is this tightening going to manifest itself in ultimately breaking down the economy into a recession? And right now, I think the broader view is that if we do have a landing, it’s going to be a soft landing, which would be really amazing considering all the moving parts. But if we land on a soft landing kind of outcome, that would be a really ideal outcome. I think that’s probably being priced in right now. And the bond and the equity markets.

Phil Jung: Soft landing is a similar kind of narrative that we’re hearing in the private markets. I unfortunately have not run any regression analysis, John, so I’m sorry, I don’t have the wisdom of Justin to back up my claims with any sort of data. However, just anecdotally, you know, in the private markets, it’s especially in investing where a lot of that does go into technology, at least for venture capital, it’s very different than the broader kind of macro real economy where unemployment is low. You know, today as a consumer, if you’re looking to hire a plumber or in fact a person or if you’re a daycare center looking to hire workers or even in education in schools, it is tough. It’s hard to find folks because unemployment is so low. But in the technology sector, it is really, really hard right now if you’re a tech worker because there just aren’t a lot of job openings and folks that are expanding, companies that are growing. So there is some narrative around a tale of two cities in that sense. But broadly speaking, there does seem to be a soft landing approach for next year that people are planning for. Next quarter should be better than last quarter. The next six months should be better than the last six months. And the next 12 months certainly should be better than the prior 12 months. Boards are planning to build in this type of growth for next year’s budgets, as opposed to this year when there are constant forecasts and ratcheting down what we were expecting to see and with the rise of interest rates. If you are a fund that does make for a difficult environment for fund raising, given that a lot of investors and LP’s, you know, they can invest risk free at a 5% return, whereas in the risky private markets where cash would be tied up, these are typically long hold periods for private investments and a lot of the uncertainty. So if you’re a fund actively out in market in the last year, this year, it was certainly a tougher environment to raise capital. But if you had raised your fund in 2020, 2021, cash was flowing and a lot of those funds are sitting on available liquidity to deploy capital into. And so in the early stage Market seed series A, startups were still raising capital, the ones that had a real differentiated product to value proposition customers and really strong growth in metrics seen in Series A round. We’re getting done now. They were taking a little bit longer, perhaps months instead of weeks, as opposed to a few years ago, but cash was flowing into those companies. We did see a slowdown in mid to growth stage companies that closely mirror more of what’s happening in the public markets where Justin spends all of his time. But again, 2024 should be much better than what we are seeing in 2023 in terms of activity of the private markets.

John Coleman: That is super helpful. And Phil, don’t worry about having not run a regression analysis even in our short time with the FDI podcast. Justin Speer is responsible for at least 80% of the regression analysis run for this podcast, and we’re very grateful for grateful for it. You know, one topic that’s coming up a lot right now that I’d love to just touch on briefly is the IPO markets obviously important for the work that both of you do? Day to day IPO markets have been pretty frozen the last couple of years. You know, and leading into that, we had this weird dynamic where there was almost like a twofold IPO market. One, there had been this irrational explosion of SPACs, which we could talk about just a bit and how those have ended up. Some of those have ended up continuing doing really well. There was a company I talked to recently called Public Square, for example, that went public through SPAC quite successfully from their perspective. And there are others I know that are soon to go public through SPAC, but that market has died down. You don’t hear people launching SPACs very much now and then. The conventional IPO market has also been frozen as I think later stage venture backed companies are waiting for more favorable valuations in markets. So I would love to get y’all’s perspective as valuations have started to creep up both in public and private markets. What are we seeing today? Where did the IPO market stand and what do we expect in the near future? And maybe, Phil, if you don’t mind, Well, we’ll start with you on that one.

Phil Jung: Yeah. Yeah. Happy to start because I’m very interested in kind of where Justin takes this from, from what I share onwards. You know, a lot of the mid and growth stage companies were just waiting for the right time to see when the IPO windows were starting to open. Now, in the meantime, so many of these technology companies were getting much more efficient with their burn ratios, with their targets on profitability in the rule of 40, for instance, is a metric that’s often referenced by high growth or late stage private companies. And so you have almost this sideline this backlog of folks on the sidelines waiting. And in recent weeks, we’ve heard of folks like Instacart and ALM and Klaviyo waiting to go public later this year. And so there’s been a lot of conversation about whether these early entrants are going to really blow open the doors for a strong Q4 going into 2024. And all of that trickles down eventually to the early stage side once the capital markets open up from an exit M&A IPO window that gives earlier stage investors and companies a lot more confidence that, hey, there is opportunity for continued growth and capital allocation for us. So that confidence will instill down and trickle down. So I’m curious, Justin, what you’re seeing, because that is the sentiment amongst, you know, growth stage investors of we think it’s right around the corner. There are companies that have really strengthened their performance and their efficiencies and there’s a huge backlog of companies now call it plus 200 million of RR, you know, Agusto, Stripe, Brex, Databricks, others that are just kind of waiting to see when the right timing is. I think the big question is valuation. You know, where are these multiples going to kind of play out? And they’re certainly not going to be what they were like a couple of years ago. But are they closer to long term averages, maybe something like ten x of, you know, revenue multiples of what the public markets will bear this time around in the next couple of quarters? I think that’s a big question mark that private investors are eager to see and watch.

Justin Speer: Yeah, it’s fascinating. You know, there’s always in my mind, a particularly in an environment where we are, where it’s a slow growth environment, there’s always appetite for growth. And I think growth becomes even more attractive in an environment like this. It’s interesting to note also that if you look at the broader market growth, equities have outperformed value equities by 25 percentage points thus far year to date, second best since 2000 performance. It’s incredible strength of growth equities, which I think is a nice that’s nice fuel for confidence for IPOs. So I would I wouldn’t be shocked with the strength of the market today to see more activity on that front.

John Coleman: That’s really interesting. And I’m for my part, I’m hearing the same, which is now that valuations are recovering in public markets. It’s much more attractive for these late stage companies. I mean, the other thing we got to think about is a lot of these later stage companies in private markets, the funds that are holding them are coming to the end of their lives, right? Phil? And so because there has not been a lot of liquidity generated over the last two years, a lot of investors are getting quite anxious. And they haven’t been able to get liquidity through the secondary markets because secondary discounts are extraordinary right now and you’re looking at 30 to 60% discounts to NAV on secondary transactions. And so I think people are very hopeful that the IPO route becomes available to those securities and that will have a trickle down effect, it seems like, to the rest of the early stage markets.

Phil Jung: John, if I may just double click on that for just a minute, especially for our listeners who may not be familiar with fund dynamics. You know, most private investment funds have certain windows. It’s a ten year fund. Maybe there’s a couple of one year extensions, but in the LPas, they’ll be agreements. There’s an end of life where LPs are expecting to receive capital back. Right. It’s not like most funds just can hold on to a position in perpetuity. And there are other vehicles for that. But that’s not how most funds are structured. And so if you’re a large fund with a significant or material ownership stake in a company, you may put pressure on a company to go public. Maybe you’ll be one of the first to potentially open up this IPO window later this year or next. Because you need liquidity, you’re obligated to provide liquidity back to your investors. So that’s something that maybe not all entrepreneurs think about when you’re taking outside capital. Understanding the dynamics of where a fund is in their lifecycle, are they early in their investment period? Are there late in their investment period? What is the fund lifecycle timeline of that particular fund? So that’s something to be mindful of. One other interesting piece about companies going public is, you know, another reason to do that might be from a company entrepreneur’s perspective is to almost reset the preference stack. So for a lot of these high growth companies that have raised tens or hundreds and hundreds of millions over the last several years, when capital is flowing, when investors invest capital, they oftentimes get preferred shares. That comes with a certain liquidation preference. That means in an exit scenario, these investors are paid back first before the leadership or employees in an option that have ownership through an employee stock option pool, see any types of proceeds. And so you stack on hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars depending on what the exit price is. Unfortunately, most common shareholders in these types of scenarios may not see any sort of proceeds, but what happens when you go public is all of these preferred shares convert to common. So in some sense you’re almost starting over in terms of that preference stack. So that might be another reason that drives companies to seek to go public to help with that conversion. So a lot of that goes into it. And again, Justin is the expert here and what that looks like. Those are some of the dynamics that are less talked about in terms of companies going public.

John Coleman: Yeah, I completely agree. Maybe to follow up on a thread, but to switch topics a bit headed into the next section. Justin had begun to bring up earlier segments that the markets seem to be excited about. I think AI is what everyone’s talking about feels eerily similar to, you know, eight nft’s in 2020 and like blockchain in 2017 or something. But, you know, I think we’d all admit that generative AI is a transformational technology. There have been great leaps made, particularly on the natural language processing side of that or on the large language model side of that through Chat GPT and others. What are industries or segments that you’re most and least optimistic about right now? And so Justin, maybe we’ll start with you on this, but as you think about industries, you’re really fired up to be an investor in those that you’re really cautious about right now. What are those?

Justin Speer: Right. And I think that on the heels of COVID and what that’s done is it’s really, I think, accelerated this growing affinity for digital experiences. And so where we’re seeing some really rapid adoption, I think it’s a secular growth thesis is in the adoption of these technologies. But really the shift towards electronic payments is one that I’ve been focused on. You know, that’s not something new, but there are some really, really robust areas of opportunity for disruption in a host of different sectors with payments and electronic payments in particular taking over. And there’s some really great cultures out there, really great leaders out there, small cap companies that have just massive addressable market so they can grow into. So I think that’s an area where I think there’s an area for disruption, for growth. And in an age where growth is hard to come by and the shake up in the financials in particular, and particularly the denting evaluations for SPACs, some of these companies, you know, came out of SPACs. And so there’s some really interesting valuations that I think don’t reflect necessarily the longer term opportunity that some of these companies have. And I’m pretty excited about.

Phil Jung: Yeah, on my end, you know, I think we’re full in this generative AI hype cycle. This past week was the latest YC Demo day over two days and effectively all the. Nominees reference that they were or some sort of AI company or generative AI company. Now, I think there is a lot of excitement, especially earlier this year, about what was happening in the space. And already there seems to be some clear winners. The entropics, the hugging face, the chatGPT, open AI, folks of the world. But what we’re most excited about currently, as we think about how AI can be used, are very specific opportunities. I use cases, verticals where I can assist and augment kind of human analysis or insights that are being driven. So for instance, we recently looked at a company, we’re still looking at a company that supports providers as they interact with patients during a live interaction to help document through technology. So there’s no manual labor that now needs to be inputted in notes and also the associated billing, the CPT codes and the requirements to help Bill for that time, which decreases the burden on the provider to spend after each patient visit, to spend and typing up notes and submitting all the required documentation for that time. We think that’s a really elegant use of AI technology in a way that’s real. Where [….] can you see immediate benefit? We’re also, it really continue to be excited about software. I mean, you know, it’s been how many years, decades since the phrase, you know, software eating the world has really taken over. But we’re still seeing applications of instances where software can continue to automate and provide just more efficiency. We’re excited about a company currently that has developed software for autism care clinics that are spending time with patients and their families. And these are children who are dealing with serious, prolonged kind of cases of support and need where often providers are working 30 plus hours with them. And all of the documentation in that case as well in terms of care plans and pathways and next steps and follow ups and appointments. All of that is still done pen and paper in some clinics. And so a software platform that really is the operating model for that clinic on how they run their business. We think that’s another way that software instance can really change the trajectory of how care is delivered. And so software, you know, specific use cases of AI, you know, those are areas that we use feel very excited about. And, you know, oftentimes people ask us, well, we have this great company, it’s not a software company. Would you consider investing? You know, currently that’s outside of where I focus today. And part of that is because for software businesses, it’s very different from other industries in the sense that, you know, once a software platform is created to deliver that same value to that next customer, it doesn’t require much in terms of incremental costs are that R&D has been developed, you know, that new user or that clinic or a customer can log on through a SaaS portal. So that’s a high margin business. And what that affords the company is margin to invest in other areas of growth or operations. And it gives you a little bit more room for error as you continue to scale headcount or sales and marketing team R&D, etc.. So we like those high margin businesses that can be scalable and we’ll continue to see, I think, a lot of growth in those areas. You know, an industry that has really fallen out of favor in venture is actually consumer consumer focused businesses. You know, during COVID, we saw this boom in e-commerce and home delivery of food and whatnot, post-pandemic. A lot of those industries and companies that saw, you know, rocket ship growth have really fallen out of favor. And that’s partially because, you know, one end user consumer behaviors, fickle, you know, preferences change and to to acquire customers, it takes a lot of marketing spend to stay top of mind. It requires massive marketing and advertising budgets. The cost of customer acquisition is very high relative to these other kind of software businesses, for instance. So consumer focused kind of opportunities have seemed to fallen out of favor, at least for now, in the venture industry. A lot of the direct to consumer models that used to be very exciting just even three or four years ago.

Justin Speer: That’s interesting Terms of the categories are the sectors that have been under pressure. You know, those pandemic gaming categories early on, I think are facing this this this hangover effect. That’s something to be mindful of because I don’t know not to look at everything, but I don’t know if current expectations from the broader market really reflect that reality, particularly as stimulus savings wear off. And I mean, how many times can you paint your home? Right? I mean, it’s just one of those things where we’re going to see a little bit of a hangover. And I think that that can last a while. The other area for us where there’s a lot of pressures in the banking realm, you have pressures from I didn’t realize this until I did a lot work on about nearly 85% of banks funding come from deposits that are yelling, you know, deposit rates of like 40 basis points. When I go money market rates and Treasuries and CDs at five and a half by five and a half percent. So their funding vehicles are going to be. Really under a lot of pressure. At a minimum, their margins are probably going to be under pressure over time. And then on top of that, you’ve just got dislocation and some of these valuations for office multifamily from this moving rates that’s going to affect the asset ledger book. And so it’s something that obviously led to a little bit of rumbling earlier than we haven’t even gone into like an economic kind of stress yet. Really, it’s more just valuations moving. But at the end of the day, I think banks are going to be an area where we have to be really careful with.

John Coleman: You know, And what’s interesting to me Justin to pick up on that theme. And then one that Phil mentioned with banks, there’s been this realization that what people thought of as a very safe place for money maybe isn’t. Now, no one lost a dollar because of federal guarantees, but in fractional reserve banking systems, there’s always been this disconnect where you deposit money in a bank, you think it’s incredibly safe because you’re not earning anything on it, or maybe you’re getting a small savings rate and then the bank levers that up 90%. Basically, they loan out, you know, 80, 90% of the money that comes in and deposits into into riskier assets. And because that’s been guaranteed through the FDIC and through these implicit guarantees of the federal government, I think consumers have largely kind of been unaware of that. But with the regional banking crisis, people have started asking themselves, like, why am I sitting in a repository account with greater risk when I can go to a money market with a better interest rate and there’s no real leverage risk like there would be in a fractional reserve account. And it’s fascinating because that is if that continues to catch hold, that is incredibly corrosive of the profitability of the typical bank structure, right, Because that’s where they get their money on the loans that they’re doing, the deposits that empower that. And I think people are more aware of how fractional reserve banking works now than they were even six or eight months ago. Probably the second thing I’d bring up, which Phil touched on, is, you know, as we look at these run in technology stocks, I think the tech sector for the first time in its recent history was forced to demonstrate discipline. And they actually did that in a way that investors appreciated. You know, one of the questions was always when this massive 15 year bull run in technology or maybe even longer than that ends, right, since the late nineties, basically. How are Google and Facebook and Apple and Amazon going to deal with belt tightening? Are they going to be able to conduct layoffs or are they going to be able to sort out which parts of their business are profitable and not profitable? Are they going to be able to manage costs when they need to because they’ve never been forced to do that before? And I think, Phil, my impression, both in private companies as well as their larger technology counterparts, is that investors saw real constructive cost control in those companies and they demonstrated ability to manage through crises when they needed to cut costs. And I think that’s part of what gave people confidence to get back into these names, right, is the idea that they saw them manage themselves reasonably well through what could have been a downturn. And so my hypothesis is that that was approved point that people have been waiting for for 15 years and that the tech sector actually largely passed on that. Great.

Phil Jung: Yeah, that’s a really great point, John. And now I got to say, I think it took a little bit of time, several quarters for that to really hit home for a lot of entrepreneurs and maybe even, you know, 18 months or so. But it’s really interesting, you know, in today’s environment, even when we get pitched opportunities at the seed or series stage. So very, very early companies oftentimes, you know, call it a million or a couple of million in revenue. Even entrepreneurs are presenting investment opportunities into their company as almost a dual path. We can leverage this capital wisely. We know if we put in a dollar in marketing, it’ll spit out 110% in top line revenue growth, for instance. And so we can use that towards growth and dual tracking it with this capital, there’s a path towards profitability. Right? And so even at the earliest stages of company formation for entrepreneurs to be thinking about that profitability targets and efficiency ratios and that’s just not something we were seeing, you know, five plus years, you know, the whole bull cycle almost. Right? When capital was plentiful, entrepreneurs were just thinking about, well, if I hit my next top line goal, I’ll be able to raise more capital. And burn does not matter as much. And so it’s really interesting. It took some time, but we’re definitely seeing that in today’s market.

John Coleman: Guys. This is the Faith Driven Investor podcast. You guys are faith driven. Investors want to turn now a little bit from the kind of financial market dynamics to what you’re seeing on the faith front. Two topics come to mind, but I want to start with one first, which is each of you takes a different approach to what we termed spiritual integration in the companies that you serve as a capital partner and what that can look like. And in fact, when we say spiritual integration, we just mean how does the leader of a company live out their faith in the context of the way in which they manage that company or they lead that company. And how can we as capital partners, encourage them on that journey in a way that creates human flourishing and love of neighbor within those companies? Maybe to start with, you Phil in the venture markets. What is the latest in spiritual integration? How are you all coming alongside companies and what are you encouraging companies to do? This may be different than what you would have done a couple of years ago, or that’s beginning to be innovative.

Phil Jung: Yeah, well, maybe I’ll start with the trend that I’m seeing More and more common is, as a lot of companies are either kind of remote or in a hybrid scenario and you’re not seeing everybody in the office. I’m hearing more and more examples of companies that have dedicated channels, whether it’s a Slack channel or other forum where people can share highlights, encouragements and also prayer requests as well from those within their company to celebrate the highs and the lows in ways that we might encourage one another. You know, some have explicit prayer channels, even though these are not, quote unquote, Christian businesses. Right? These are secular businesses led by believers. But they feel in this day and age where we’re all looking for something bigger than just us, they’re looking to join a company that cares about an individual and their whole self. They’re promoting and encouraging those ways to communicate and bring your whole authentic self to work. So I’ve been really strengthened and encouraged by that. In this environment, it is really tough if you’re an entrepreneur in the early days of company building, oftentimes you don’t have a fully built out executive team. Maybe you’re solo founder. The highs are really, really high and the lows are really, really low. And so we see our role as capital partners, obviously, with supporting business related initiatives and budget reviews and go to markets and all of that. But just encouraging founders who are so often heads down into their business, which can get demoralizing at times. We act as a reminder of, hey, you know, in this market, if you’re only growing, you know, two X instead of the three or four X that you are aspiring to do this year, that’s actually really good in this market. You know, this is what we’re seeing amongst your peers. That has been a huge encouragement. We’ve gotten that direct feedback, I think, oh my goodness, we’re only growing two X this year. Last year we did four X and I thought we were just, you know, sucking completely missing it. And yet it’s really helpful to get a sense of what you’re seeing in the broader markets. You know, that’s been a very small thing that we’ve realized. You know, we’re seeing so many thousands of companies a year having 80 plus portfolio companies. That’s a small way that we can encourage founders of what’s happening in the broader macro. But most importantly, it’s reminding entrepreneurs that their identity is not in their business, it is not in their performance. Yes, of course, it’s great if your company is thriving and things are going well, but first and foremost, your identity is as a child of God. And whether your company’s success then becomes the next unicorn or it fizzles out next year. And that kind of fizzle rate is very high in venture, by the way, an early stage venture that your identity is not in your work, it is not in your performance of your company, but it is purely because you are a child of God and reminding them of that, praying with them, asking how their families are doing, how things at home are going, how their church life or their community is going, and just reminding folks that there is more to life than just their business. Although it is very important. Just to be clear, that has been a great reminder for us, even as capital partners, to double down on that effort, especially during this time when things are shaky and raising capital becomes harder and growth becomes harder than in prior years. So we’ve been trying to be very intentional about that, setting aside to pray with our founders, with them, and outside of time with them too, with amongst our teams, encouraging them of what’s happening in the broader environment so that they can kind of stay plugged in. And in the know, I think, for instance, after we record this, this might be a great resource that we share out in terms of how Justin and John are thinking about what the public markets and the broader kind of later stage environment is looking like, especially for those early stage founders. I think people would be encouraged by that.

John Coleman: Fantastic. Justin, what are you all seeing? I mean, public companies, CEOs and public companies are obviously in a somewhat different situation than our earlier stage companies. What are you all saying there?

Justin Speer: And so we are really blessed to be a part of the culture here at Sovereign that really is focused on spiritual integration and recognizing that culture is really, really important. And we’re navigating pretty complex times with, you know, some and I’ll just be open and honest. Some strange ideas coming in to the marketplace about what a strong culture is. And so, you know, our process is all about finding companies that have faith driven leaders that are doing incredible things for their people. Your servant leaders have golden rule oriented values. These are companies that have incredible benefits. They do some really wonderful things for their people, not just their employees, the families and the communities around them, and do so in a way that’s really God honoring. And one of the things that we do at sovereigns and one important area of impact that we have on the public equity side is that we’re hosting these roundtables for CEOs of public companies to come together. And it’s a small group which creates like a really great format environment for just openness from peers who are dealing with similar types of challenges as public company CEOs. So we’re bringing these leaders together and they’re learning from one another about best practices that each of them are deploying within the organizations to serve the people and to enable their people to flourish. So I think that’s a pretty unique thing that I’ve really never been a part of in my career until I came here. It’s one of the highlights of my career, really, is to be able to be a part of that and really blessed to be a part of that. But we are just delivering these companies, the opportunity and the CEOs of these companies, the opportunity to learn from one another? And each leader has a different they have different roads, different geographies, different industries. And so as our co-founder Luke Roush would say, our aim is it to be prescriptive on a set of tactics but rather descriptive on how leaders can maybe serve their employees, build on what they’re already doing within each of their companies? And hopefully these CEOs will be served with such great ideas from their peers that they act on them. And that will manifest itself in the many thousands of employees that are represented by those leaders in these rooms just to deliver incrementally exceptional culture. And so we actually just had our first roundtable in Dallas have nine companies in attendance, over 40,000 employees represented, 100,000 family members. And that’s, from our perspective, what it looks like to positively serve these public company CEOs, not asking for anything in return, just trying to help them and help their people flourish.

John Coleman: That is awesome, guys. Well, you know, we end all of these podcasts briefly by just asking folks what they’re learning from scripture right now that they might want to share with others. And so just in a couple of minutes, Phil, is there anything on your heart right now that you’re learning and scripture you want to share here with the audience?

Phil Jung: Yeah, maybe. You know, I’m taking my own medicine in terms of what I shared last of even as an investor, just not rooting my identity in fund performance, you know, fund size, the logos that we’re able to partner with in terms of portfolio companies, you know, all of that is in God’s hands. And so in John 15, where it reminds us that I’m the vine and you are the branches, that if you remain in me, that you will bear much fruit and that apart from me, that you can do nothing. I think that’s so humbling and yet so empowering that even, you know, I may think that if I just am able to crank out a couple more hours of work, then maybe, you know, this next company or this next partner of ours, you know, we can close that deal or that opportunity. Well, you know, just as much if I go to sleep and be energized for the next day, God is still working in my times of slumber. And so just that reminder that even as an investor, that there’s only so much that I can do that is ultimately in the Lord’s hands and in that I find security and comfort and peace that transcends this world. I mean, that that’s the message that I’m trying to share with our entrepreneurs that I’m preaching to myself at the same time. So especially in this very competitive industry where there headlines every single day of activities and exciting things that are happening, just knowing that, yes, that is good. But also, you know, God is better in terms of how he is moving and what he’s able to do beyond our imaginations.

John Coleman: It’s a good word, Phil. I will say I feel a little bit guilty that we asked you to prioritize this over sleep given the 2 a.m. arrival last night. So Phil did skip his nap for the Faith Driven Investor podcast, but hopefully that’s a ministry resource that it’s a good priority. Thank you. Phil. Justin, what’s on your mind right now?

Justin Speer: You know, just coming off of the fact that Phil got in at 2 a.m. and he’s doing this, he looks fresh. I think you’re you’re doing well. Phil. But in that vein, you know there’s a section of text and scripture. Mark Chapter six really in verse 48 is where I’m thinking about It’s on my heart after all of our discussions, but know the disciples of Christ. They’re in training, they’re in basic training, and they didn’t really know who He really is. They knew he was special. They do not really how special he is, but he just fed 5000 miraculously. And before that he gave them the power over unclean spirits and they’ve seen him calm storm before. And the people after he fed 5000 wanted to make him a king. And Jesus departed to a mountain and his disciples were left like, What in the world? And we’ve left everything for this man. And now we’re leaving him. We’re alone in a boat, rowing in verse 48. So Jesus saw them straining. Rowing for the wind was against them. Now, about the fourth watch of the night, he came to them walking on the sea and we’re pass them by. So these men were probably three, four or five in the morning. They had just pulled an all nighter. They’re exhausted and they’re rowing in this boat and they’re afraid. And then here comes Jesus walking on the water. And then you come to realize that they now realize that this is more than just the king. He’s the king of kings. This is God. No one can do what he can do unless God is with them. And more importantly, that He is God. And so sometimes, you know, you get in the boat. And I realize that these companies that were investing and I didn’t realize that one in four people are coming to work with either mental health or a substance abuse issue. People are dealing with a lot. And sometimes we’re all dealing with a lot. And we are rowing and we’re trying and we’re going against the wind and we’re exhausted. And I think we just need to remember just as what Phil is saying just to keep our eyes on Christ. And and they apparently were still a lot of learning to do because they were afraid they still had to build their faith. And it wouldn’t be ultimately until they saw him on the cross. And he resurrected three days later that they really had their faith and their hearts were melted and they did some amazing things in his name after that, in particular about let’s just keep our eyes on Christ and recognize that our labors not in vain. And he’s with us and he’s in control and he is the master of the universe. And I love God very much, and I love these stories. To help remind me.

John Coleman: Man, I feel like Justin just ran a regression on scripture, right?

Phil Jung: That was going to say the exact same thing. John That is the equivalent of a regression analysis, man. I’m glad. I’m glad I went first.

John Coleman: Justin Phil, you guys are awesome. Really appreciate you making the time today. I really appreciate your insights on markets and I hope you will consider doing this with us again. Thanks for joining the Faith Driven Investor podcast.

Justin Speer: Thank you John, thank you Phil.

Phil Jung: Thank you.

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How can Christians thoughtfully approach the topic of artificial intelligence?

How should we use it? What are the ethical considerations? Is it good or dangerous?

These are relevant questions for Faith Driven Investors as AI continues to be a topic for conversation in both the business world and the broader culture. 

That’s why we’re excited to feature James Cham on the podcast. 

James is an early-stage venture capitalist and a partner at Bloomberg Beta, a Silicon Valley-based firm that invests in the “new world of work.” Conversations about Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning are a big part of his day-to-day life. 

In this crossover episode, he talks with the Faith Driven Entrepreneur hosts about wrestling through the ever-changing landscape of technology with wisdom, discernment, and a redemptive vision of the world.

Episode Transcript

Henry Kaestner: Welcome back to the faith driven entrepreneur podcast, William we’re here with our guest, James Cham in the house, a fellow Californian. But you are broadcasting this in from Washington, D.C., where you’re going to talk about the subject matter that we’ve brought you to talk about. And this is building, William, on some work we’ve done recently about artificial intelligence. And two nights ago we did an event for Inklings. Inklings. As a group, we get together every month, month and a half out here. James Cham has been added a bunch of folks talking about Christians in Web3. What is it looks like for Christians in blockchain? What does it look like for Christians in artificial intelligence obviously with chatGPT there’s a lot of talk to it. But William, correct me if I’m wrong, but the precipitating event for today, but the origination, the genesis for today’s podcast comes from a panel you heard James talk at at the Praxis event. Tell us more about that.

William Norvell: Yeah. So Praxis, another great friend of the movement, as everyone knows, had their redemptive Imagination summit that they call it up in Napa, California, a few weeks ago. And you know, this year there was a shocking lack of cryptocurrency panels and a shocking increase in AI panels. I mean, I’m if I could set people up to stick around for the next 40 minutes, I leaned over. I was actually sitting next to our other fearless leader Justin Forman. I said, We’re going to get this on the podcast fast. This is like the most at the moment forward thinking on not only where AI was going to go, but what should we be thinking about as believers? What shouldn’t we be thinking about? What should we be thinking about with our children? What should we be scared of with our children? Our Some of our children may be different and some should lean in to learning about this now, and some maybe should be held back from that first season. So I think it spanned just an incredible view of what God would have for this space, how we should thoughtfully think about it, and how, of course, we shouldn’t be scared of a revolution that’s coming. And thoughtful Christians need to be a part of it, or we’re going to lose the battle by abandoned the playing field. So with that, James, welcome.

James Cham: It’s good to see you guys.

Henry Kaestner: So, James, I want to ask you what is motivating the urgency and excitement around AI? Why is everybody talking about it now? And we’ll talk more about why Christians should care, but why is this all the rage now? Why are there so many panels and everybody is talking about AI, the space you’ve been in for a long time, What makes everybody focus on it now?

James Cham: You know, the great A.I. demos have always been with us since like the sixties. There’s was great demonstrations in which it’ll do this thing or that thing and even, you know, sort of as recently as like five years ago or two years ago, I’d show some amazing demo of some amazing product that will do this sort of that magical thing. And then someone would say to me, Hey, can I use this? Can I try this? I say, Well, give me a few moments. I need to prep the data. I need to do this and that. I need to change this, you know, and then give me a couple of weeks and you’ll be able actually try this out. And it might or might not work. And what’s different about now is that in the last year and then in the last six months, there have been a series of investment bets the actually paid off such that now we’re at a point where like everyone and anyone is able to use the most advanced large language models in a way that like used to be cloistered inside Google or clustered inside Facebook where only the smartest people in the world, we’re able to play with it and fiddle with it. And now, in part because of a series of both business decisions and technical advancements, this is available to anyone. And that suddenly means that these things that were theoretical questions became real opportunities. And that has implications not just for business, but also for the way that we think about faith.

Henry Kaestner: So what are some of those large language models that have now made their way out into the public? Just give an overview. I sense that a number of our listeners know what they are. Some of them might not. What is that? How is that accessible now for everybody?

James Cham: So right now it’s most accessible either through a set of services from Google or Microsoft or from Openai. And let me just take a step back to describe sort of like one version of the history of AI, which is what is AI. AI is a dream, AI is a dream that the computers will be able to do things that humans will be able to do in terms of thinking. And what’s interesting about that dream is that along the way, over the last since like basically the sixties, we’ve started to be able to do things with computers that like humans that would be difficult. And each step along the way we’ve said, Oh, this is not quite A.I., this is not quite A.I.. You know, the fact that you can beat someone in chess, that’s impressive, but it’s not quite AI. And then we’re at this point now where these large language models are flexible enough and open ended enough that for the first time, a lot of even the best practitioners are saying to themselves, Oh my goodness, this might mean that we’re close to true artificial intelligience. And this only happens because of a series of slightly crazy technical miracles. And let me just describe a few of them. Right? So one of the first ones is this idea that we’re able to represent ideas in sort of super high dimensional space that you can sort of like get some idea and the set of statistical techniques that don’t really matter right now. You’re able to represented as math, right? And that idea that you can represent as math and then do math against it suddenly meant that you can manipulate them in interesting ways. So that’s the first miracle. So that’s like one miracle. The other miracle that sort of has been surprising to everyone is then you’re able to take like sort of, you know, all of the Web, compress it down into these models and then you’re able to like, do a whole series of queries and chats against them. And then the surprising thing about that is that that will actually end up creating coherent results. So that’s the first thing you saw, but that didn’t really work that well. The thing that worked really well was when you asked the models to explain their thinking step by step, and suddenly it meant that like, you know, sort of you ask it some physics problem and it wouldn’t answer correctly, and then you’d say, to it. Okay, answer this physics problem and describe it step by step. And suddenly, like for the first time, it would start answering things much more precisely. And this was sort of shocking and confusing to a bunch of sort of people in the industry because all of their historical work around thinking about natural language processing and how people talk like that was thrown out the window by just saying, we’re going to process a bunch of text compressor down. Are we getting too technical? I feel like I’m taking you down the wrong.

William Norvell: Yeah, well, I love it. I think we needed to go there. And now. Yeah, let’s take a step back up. Right. And so I think one of the things that was really intriguing is you talked about how and no point in human history, for the most part, has a technology, this advance been able to be utilized by so many people so quickly? Right. And how that’s going to have I mean, I mean, you can just go on Twitter or LinkedIn. I mean, there are Hindu A.I. companies born a day that can build you a PowerPoint, build your website. I mean, people are taking this technology and building on it. You know, like a developer tools, right? Like, it’s amazing. And so I’m curious as you look out, I mean, I’m sure it’ll be in the interim, But, you know, let’s bring it into this conversation. You’re an investor for a living, right? You invest in venture capital. So how do you think about the space from Bloomberg Beta perspective and where you think, you know, let’s do now, you know, soon and later? Right. What do you feel like the most impressive uses are now? What do you think’s coming soon and what do you think? Hey, people are getting ahead of themselves. That’s still a ways out before that type of technology is going to be able to exist.

James Cham: Mm hmm. Okay. So the thing that is now is that most machine learning used to be built for very purpose built reasons. Right? That a lot of cases you just have to do a lot of work to get it trained to answer a question. Exactly right. And now for the first time, it’s extraordinarily flexible, and that’s disorienting to most people. And so that flexibility means that you can now ask relatively open ended questions and sort of discover sort of what the model knows or doesn’t know. And then now in terms of like short term, what’s available to it, you know, I think there are a lot of startups that are making a lot of money very quickly because they found a specific niche, right, that they figured out, oh, I can create text for this thing or that thing and I can sell it for 20 bucks and it cost me two bucks to generate and sort of like that sort of opportunities right here, right now. There’s also a whole set of like opportunities around wrapping these models with agency where they can actually then affect the world. Right. And then that sort of thing, which basically now you’ve got these models going around and sort of like browsing a website or touching this or that. Like that’s clearly the next thing. Right after having chatGPT, the next natural thing everyone wants, right, is that ability to have these things actually do something. And that part, it’s a little less clear, right? It’s a little less clear what it’s good at and bad at. And that’s sort of the thing that’s happening right now in real time that out in Silicon Valley right now, you’ve got like 50 different people, 50 different teams trying to figure out exactly when does this model work and when doesn’t it work, when it tries to click on a website or browse this or solve this problem. But that interaction with first the digital world and then that interaction to the rest of the world, that’s clearly the thing that’s just out there. And to be honest, a little scary.

William Norvell: In this would be thinking about a practical example that may not be a sexy example. This would be like me go to ChatGPT saying, Hey, I need to take a flight to Dallas. Right? I’ve got an off site in Dallas coming up in a few weeks and I need to book an Airbnb, booked dinner reservations on Monday and Tuesday, booked my flights and send the itinerary to so-and-so. And is that a query that’s going to be possible here in the near future? Words like, Oh yeah, that be taken care of.

James Cham: That’s the sort of thing that feels like it’s right around the corner and right now works very well in demos and almost works well enough that people are going to roll out. And so this is the other part of it, which is like it is a information diffusion of knowledge story where we live in a world where everything is so connected that, you know, people are able to play all over the world and thus try these technologies out and see what works and doesn’t work and then tweet about it like in the afternoon. And that cycle of innovation and try things is like both really exciting and terrifying, right? Because it does mean that there’s much more room for mischief now than there was before. And sort of our old illusions of being able to control the technology sort of thrown out the window.

Henry Kaestner: Tell us more about that. Tell us more to the some of the things that you’re it’s like, oh, my goodness, you know, this could happen in I mean, in some of this stuff. I got to tell you, as a dad or just a human being, I get really worried about what this means for the adult entertainment business and just, you know, what this ends up being in terms of just taking people down, just really, really bad places. But what are some of the other things that you look at and say, wow, the emergence of this is going to be this is the type of mischief that can happen or maybe just riff on that a little bit.

James Cham: Yeah, I mean, I think here are a couple interesting angles. So in part because these models are so flexible and because their programs are so consistent, they can be much more polite on a consistent basis or much more persuasive on a consistent basis than say, I will if I didn’t have enough coffee in the morning. And so that creates a full set of interesting opportunities. And in part because they’re cheaper to run than like, let’s say talking to me, you can end up replacing humans in conversation in all sorts of interesting, both good and bad ways. And now what’s interesting, though, is that one way to think about it is to think about it from the point of view of a consumer in which the consumer maybe gets fooled into having a relationship with what is essentially just a big bunch of numbers. Right? So that’s one side. But the flip side, which I think is much more relevant to entrepreneurs and much more relevant to people building stuff is like the actual danger of these models and of AI right now is it gives you a chance to pretend that you’re not responsible, that you could build this system that does great mischief, and then you will say, Oh no, it wasn’t me, it was the model that did it right. And I think that that sort of like avoidance of responsibility is actually going to be the big, big temptation for entrepreneurs. And that is the place where I think Christians have a lot of wisdom, right, where Christians will be able to say a lot of smart things about the responsibility we have when we create something and both for good and for evil.

William Norvell: Yeah, it’s fascinating. It reminds me. So my wife and I went back and started watching the show called Person of Interest. I don’t think I ever heard of it. Jim Caviezel was the star who, of course, played Jesus in The Passion as well. And it’s ten years ago. But it goes through the whole concept of the show is this brilliant engineer built in artificial intelligence that, of course, national security wanted to buy. Right? Because they could predict national security threats and it would pop out who’s relevant. And they’re a threat to national security. And the show takes a turn because turns out there’s irrelevant numbers as well. The system also finds people that are going to get mugged on the street, and that’s what the show goes off. And guys, But in the context of that, they talk deeply about the decisions he made while building the system. And for instance, one of the big decisions he made is ten years old. Sorry if I’m ruining it is it erased its memory every night and how that had to be true, or else it would learn at a speed that eventually, like he couldn’t control it anymore. Right. But they go so deep into these deep. And then there’s a competing A.I., of course, that comes along. That’s evil. And that’s a fun story. I think You talked a little bit about national security last time I heard you talk, and I was curious for you to take that direction and say, you know, as an example, you could build something great that can be good, that can be used for very much not good things.

James Cham: I mean, I think so. These models, right, are going to be extremely flexible, extremely persistent. And they will do things that we will consider thinking. They will have ideas that are going to be similar to consciousness. And why does that happen or how does that happen? We’re not totally sure. But one way to think about it is that they’re able to find structure and analogies that our brains sort of like implicitly do, and it’s now doing that explicitly through math. And so in that case, it might be able to do things that look creative, right? And it might also be able to do things that end up becoming very, very. But because they’re machines, they’re much more persistent than we will be. And so, for example, your ability to hack into some system, you know, like, I don’t know, I might know 15 techniques to hack into some system. I might get bored because I kind of want to read Twitter or there’s a basketball game going on. I get distracted. But these models will be very persistent and they will go through every single possible security hole and find every single possible vulnerability and take advantage of that in a way that no human will and those sorts of sort of little angles and opportunities I think are quite scary. And I think there’s a good reason why a lot of the government and governments all over the world are concerned about this. But I’d say that the hard part there is like and my thinking has evolved on this. I used to think that the solution might be some newfangled regulation. I now think that in some ways the right solution are very, very old principles around What are you responsible for? You benefit. Are you responsible for like the upside and downside of something? You know, sort of who’s liable and all those questions. And some of these are super old and super straightforward. So that’s one piece. And I think the other piece that’s interesting about this is that I think a lot of regulators and a lot of people are pursuing A.I. because they’re hopeful and optimistic, are utopian in their thinking. And I think it’s very, very clear from, you know, all of history and certainly in the Bible, right, that sort of tools are flawed. And part especially tools are created in our image because we are flawed, right. Because of original sin. And I think that realizing that these models will never be perfect, that these models will always be tragically, flawed, the same way that we are, like, that’s going to be an important truth and something that we’ll always have to think about. And that’s a wisdom that we as Christians and a perspective that we as Christians to provide that I think is unique and helpful.

William Norvell: And so where is that? So where? So as you think about a believer investing in the space, coming to the space and talking to entrepreneurs who may be thinking about building in the space, I mean, I think that is yes, I mean, these models, I assume, were always going to be a factor of us, right? I mean, since you’re in DC, you know, there was a political one, right, where it’s like ChatGPT basically won’t say any nice things about Trump, but will say nice things about Biden. Basically, like if you asked it, like, tell me, like great qualities and like, well, you know, there’s people that built this thing, right? There is bias built in right to whoever. And, you know, there could be bias built in the other way where somebody wouldn’t say anything nice about Biden either. Right. But I’m just curious where and how should a Christian think about, you know, do you need to build something new? Does it need to be on its own? Can you influence from inside a large organization that’s already working on this? And just what is the posture to make it a biblical worldview or.

James Cham: Yeah, there are a couple of angles I think built into that. One of them is the sense that as these models get bigger, they do seem like they get smarter and more interesting. But the other part about it is that there’s a bit of a power law, right? That to build the next version, sometimes it’s going to be like 10 to 100 X more expensive. And so that math around it does end up meaning that it’s critical that Christians are in some of the biggest companies in the world to influence and think through what this actually might mean. So I think that’s one part. The second part is that you notice that as you talked about chatgpt, and I think this is a little bit of a marketing thing, there is a temptation to treat it as if it is the God model, right? As is. Oh, you know, if only we can influence our great God chatgpt, then our lives would be better. And I think that’s the other temptation, right? That’s the temptation of treating it like an idol. And I think that’s one of the sort of there’s one temptation, which is to say, let’s ignore it and run away from it like a […]. And then there’s the other temptation was to say, you know what? Actually this thing is God, right? Rather than a sub creation made by humans. And the moment we treat it like God, then we have a whole set of other problems.

William Norvell: Okay, So let’s go a layer deeper into that. So, you know, I remember we had Frank Chin on a while ago, and I remember he talked about some of that. It’s like, hey, some things humans weren’t made to do. It’s part of the toil. I mean, I think we were talking about autonomous driving at the time, and he said, you know, look, all the truck drivers are upset, but like, think about that job. That’s not a human flourishing job. You’re away from your family, you’re driving all day. It’s stressful on your body like this is a good thing for humanity, actually. Now we need to help those people find new jobs and retrain them. But that job in and of itself, Frank was arguing, is. Not a human flourishing job. And so I’m curious, from an artificial intelligence standpoint, are there certain task? Is the people scared, of course, that we can talk about the doomsday Terminator two scenario at some point, but is this actually a thing we should embrace because it’s going to make us more human? Is there an argument for that that we get more humanity out of this?

James Cham: Hmm. You know, this goes back in some ways to praxis, which is that there are a set of decisions that we can make about the kinds of businesses that we want to support and the kinds of businesses that could flourish. So that’s the first part, which is it is a decision made by people around what kind of businesses we’re going to allow. That’s the first part. But the second part is like I will admit that like I have an essentially tragic view of work and of humanity, which is that it’s flawed. We’re all post fall. We try the best we can. I think that there are a whole set of jobs that are actually I actually honor truck drivers. I think it’s a great job. I think it’s really important. I think it will fulfill a bunch of important things for people. And, you know, like, I don’t know, I compare this to sort of my ancestors who were either toiling in the field, some rice field, or sometimes maybe like running money from one place to another, right. Doing things that were like. And so I feel like our question of like what is a good, fulfilling job is so contextual, right? And is so much based on like sort of our current conception. I don’t know. My great grandfather, you know, was away for like nine months out of the year in order to like, go from one place to another. Right? And that was still seen as a good job. So that’s one piece, right? But is just to say that, like, I think jobs are going to be tough and it’s super contextual. And then the other part that I’d say is like it is also important to be very, very cold hearted as we think about these models right now and the economic moment we sit in, which is to say that like if you thought about like the last big policy decision the United States made around globalization, the promise that we made to like citizens was globalized. Things will be cheaper. And by the way, you will benefit from the fact that things are cheaper and we will take care of you. And be honest, both Republicans and Democrats have not done that, in part because there was a moment where workers had a chance to influence sort of a whole set of decisions and in part because maybe you trust the Democrats a little too much, or maybe you trusted your labor union leaders a little too much. That promise was not fulfilled. And we are actually right now in a very, very similar moment where there is a lot of everyone smells the benefit and all the great things that these models can do. And at the same time, there’s a great bargain to be made between sort of all the folks who are working in sort of a bunch of jobs that might be displaced. And I think like that bargain is an entirely political thing that needs to be coldhearted rather than utopian or blinded by sort of my various startup dreams.

William Norvell: So let’s get a practical questions here. If you were an ex job, you would be wildly scared of this technology taking over your job because that’s something and all the headlines, of course, always come out with, you know, technology is always going to take all the jobs, right? Just different versions of it. I’m curious from your perspective, if you were. So let’s talk about kids in college. Henry’s got two boys in college and one coming up soon. What should or shouldn’t they study? Right? Yeah.

James Cham: White collar jobs that require people to be polite actually are at great risk that, you know, sort of there was a time ten, 20 years ago where everyone said, oh, the truck driver is going to be in trouble, or like the guy who the farmer’s going to be in trouble. That’s not really the risk here. The really the real risk and all these sort of these sort of folks like me playing with spreadsheets and emails and trying to be polite to people and talk to them and persuade them in some consistent way. And so there’s a whole set of white collar jobs that are going to be different. So I’m giving a presentation in a few minutes to like some congressional staffers. And I have this one slide of this huge floor of an insurance building. It comes out of like the movie The Apartment from the Sixties, and you had desks of people who would like have a little calculator, a little hand calculator, crank some number out, take the slip, pass it over to another desk. And what’s interesting about that work, which was like entire floors of buildings, is like that’s basically a spreadsheet that those hundreds of people on the floor were replaced by a single spreadsheet. And that’s on the one hand, terrifying, right? And it means great dislocation. But on the other hand, it’s also true that we’ve been okay, that if you look at sort of like life from the fifties on to the nineties, it turned out that like those dislocations end up being okay and being managed. But that’s like entirely, I think, a political question and less like a fit of the world question.

Henry Kaestner: So I want to take this in a slightly different direction. I just am fascinated by this and it’s less around how we invest and it’s less maybe around some of the innovations that come from entrepreneurs in the business, which is so much of our audience. But it’s more. But the one thing that unites most listen to the podcast, and that is our belief that there is a truth, that there is absolute truth. It’s not relative. You can point back to God’s Word as immutable. And, you know, as you get ready to talk to his congressional staffers, I mean, this is a nation under God. I wonder if there’s an opportunity for there to be this kind of operating. Well, it’s an operating system of which all of a brain of all AI sits on, which is every type of answer that comes out of this query that I might have of a chatGPT has some sort of biblical foundation to it. And so that I am like, for instance, you know, we invest in faith driven entrerpreneur, faith driven entrepreneur is the common element of this podcast, and there’s some sort of this belief that the thing that unites us all is to realize that there’s there real mistakes made in Second Chronicles, where the Good Kings of Judah didn’t see God out. And there’s real problems with sin in this area and pride and what the wisdom that comes from proverbs and psalms, etc., Can any you that like a coded in to this operating system in the chatGPT. So the answers you come out are actually informed by two or 3000 years of truth. Now somebody might say, well, gosh, that’s too myopic. It’s just Christian and or we take one nation under God. It wasn’t just a Christian, God, whatever, but 99% of Americans believe in God. It’s only 1% that are really atheistic. And the general concept that there is a God and that America is unique and is one nation under God is still believed in by the majority of the people in the marketplace. Is it possible that there could be one type of truth? There kind of is kind of coded in to all of these things so we can then say, Well, I actually can’t go that far off the rails because at the root code of all of this comes from Scripture.

James Cham: I think that’s partly a commercial question, right? I think it’s important not to confuse chatGPT and the work that open AI to all the really impressive good work that open AI is doing and building their own model with all the models that are potentially available. Right. It’s possible that we live in a world where opening AI end up being the only people who are able to build advanced models. But if that happened, that only really happened because of regulation. Because the truth is right now there are enough people chasing them, enough people building their own versions of models using the same set of techniques. And so my guess is that, you know, we’ll live in a world where there are a number of providers of very big models, and then your ability to either fine tune it or wrap around it, questions like, Oh, here’s your answer now. Like how does this reflect various biblical values? And then we answer this question around how it answers various biblical values like that could be done right? Sort of the other weird miracle around like these large language models is that they’re very good at self-reflection, that you can give it. You can say to it, hey, you know, answer this question, and then you can ask it, Hey, is this question biblical? Is this answer biblical? And then you could ask again, Hey, was this answer really biblical? And AI actually come up with a better answer, right? So those sorts of things you can do and they aren’t necessarily bounded into like one specific model.

Henry Kaestner: That’s interesting, so like there’s the web, and I don’t know as much about this as I speak to it, but there’s the web and then there’s the dark web. And I wonder if there’s like the chatGPT that’s informed by the world’s great religions, of which are commonalities. And so that any answer, any query, any type of pontification or reflection or theory or opinion that’s expressed by the chatGPT, undergirded by the world’s great religions comes out with something. And then anything that would be sinister, not based on these commonly accepted things would be part of like the darkGPT. And people would kind of know like, Hey, this is the origination and it this AI is a part of this overall code that has this kind of underbelly. And so it could never, ever convince me to kill somebody or it can never encourage me to lie, bear false witness. It can never encourage me to do any type of activity that would have to do with adultery or whatever, things like that.

James Cham: And so let me make one really important distinction, which is chatGPT is an application that is built by Openai. So it’s like one very specific application that’s built on top of a very big model that openai I spent a bunch of money in order to get it to work right? But there’ll be other people who spent a bunch of money to build models. And also the other slightly crazy thing about like these models is, you know, what are they really? Are they really answering the question or are they just trying to imitate what other people have done, what other people have written? And so in some ways, you know, they. Really are just trying the best they can to like generate text that matches something you tell it to do. And so you I think folks apply. Try this. One of the crazy things you can do is you can say, Hey, pretend that you are a Christian who lives in San Diego, who really likes baseball, and then answer the question in this way. Or you can say, pretend that you are a Christian who really likes socialism and answer the question this way include references to the Bible. And so these models will try the best they can in order to fulfill the sort of setup that you gave it. And so in some ways, that sort of thing is available right now, and it’s more a question of commercial adoption and sort of the economics of it than it is a question of whether it’s technically doable.

Henry Kaestner: So is it right to encourage and challenged the listeners this podcast about how might you innovate on top of open air with a biblical strain so that a consumer, you know, parents of three children and say, I’m actually going to go ahead and I’m going to buy into and pay a subscription so that my kids have questions about life’s big problems or about history or something like that, that it’s done through a biblical worldview, that AI becomes part of their teacher. And when they ask these questions that I can answer at home about evolution or any type of chemistry or anything like that, that I can have the screen that everything they ever ask of this thing is informed by a biblical worldview because that’s actually programed in the system. Kind of like what I have seen guys or any one of a number of different types of pay for services that have been screen out negative stuff. This could actually be a service that do there’s a positive screen.

James Cham: I mean, you could do that right now. And like the hard part with it is you could basically sprinkle that in the beginning of any query, the chatGPT and it’ll do a pretty good job. And then whether you wanted to make that a separate application or a separate business, that’s a good question. But you can literally go to chatGPT right now and say, pretend that you are a very thoughtful sort of evangelist who takes the Bible seriously and, you know, just went to Africa and is based in Silicon Valley, you know, and then answer this question and it’ll do an okay job. And then what even crazier is like, you can provide lots and lots of answers that, you know, that person gave and they use that as examples that it can then use to generate, you know, possible future answers.

William Norvell: It’s not going to test out. I’m going to see chatGPT 2021, but we got enough podcast out there. I’m going to see if I can train somebody to answer questions like Henry or Rusty. I think we should try that.

Henry Kaestner: Okay. Well, that’s absolutely a thought that based on what James just said and the interplay that we’ve had thus far, there are infinitely better questions that I could have asked along the way that a chatGPT is like, okay, James Cham just said this on the podcast. What should I ask as a follow up? I’m sure Chat GPT right now could come up with 100 better questions than the ones that I asked.

James Cham: And I think the opportunity. So on the one hand, like that’s going to be magical and it’ll seem so different from anything we’ve ever seen before. But in other ways it’s not different at all. Remember that sort of relationship with the Henry Bot in some ways is very similar to like your relationship to Billy Graham or David Letterman, which is say it is a relationship not with the actual person but with an image of the person. Right? And those are the things in sociology would be called parasocial relationships. And they can be very, very helpful. And they do great good until they become idolatrous. and then that sort of temptation is as old as the Bible, right? That the chance for us to treat something that is a parasocial relationship or relationship with a king who doesn’t really know us and worship him or our ability to sort of like have a relationship with like some mountain and then worship the mountain. Right? That temptation is going to be the thing that we’re going to struggle with a lot more in new and interesting ways.

William Norvell: Yeah, that’s good because that’s real. You know, we just did obviously a tribute podcast to Tim Keller, and I feel like that, you know, he’s had a big influence on my life and I’ve probably shaken his hand twice. Right. But the amount of like, did I answer questions? You know, here’s kind of what Tim Keller would say about that, right? Even though I don’t really have a personal relationship with him, like, yeah, that’s been around for a while. You read enough books by someone and you watching it. I mean, I’ve listened to a hundred sermons from him and read 20 of his books. Like, I can kind of like, here’s kind of what he would say to that.

James Cham: That’s right. And then the interesting thing then as Christians is to have a distinction between those parasocial relationships and sort of the relationship with someone who seems like would be distant and seems like it would be all powerful and all knowing and yet actually has a relationship with us, right? Because our relationship with Tim Keller might be parasocial, but our relationship with Jesus is actually social, right? That actually, like we actually have a relationship with him and an understanding. That distinction I think, gives us room to think about these questions in a way that ends up being a little bit easier than it is for non-Christians because we’ve got a model like not a machine learning model, but so we have an example of what it’s like to have an actual relationship with someone versus having that sort of Parasocial relationship was important and again, beneficial, but very different than. Having a relationship with Jesus.

William Norvell: James is a company in here. You know, we get along, foreigners listening. I’m one of them. I’m curious to hear your answer here. What should we be folding into our business? How should we be taking some of these tools, if at all? Right. I assume the answer is yes to some degree. Like, what should I be doing? I’m going to pitch you in 12 months. Right? Like, what if I haven’t done X? Are you going to be like, wow. Like, man, you got to, like, get with the times. Like, you got to. And is that statement even true? Does everyone need to be using some of these tools in their business? Is that advantageous to build a better growing business?

James Cham: You know, there are some point in maybe 1997 when people started building web applications and they didn’t have names for it yet. Right. They didn’t really know how to describe it. Everyone sort of thought Yahoo! Was the dominant thing and maybe those like we thought we’d all buy Oracle applications that were served through some Web server. And we’re sort of at that point, we’re sort of at the point where it’s clear something’s working and exactly how it’s going to work or exactly what’s to be the dominant business model. All of those questions are unclear. And so if I’m you I’m trying to figure that out right now that there’s a little bit of a race right now to figure out what are these models really, really good at and what’s going to be the thing that, as it turns out, to be really, really valuable. So if we use our web example from like the late nineties, early 2000, you know, you talked to some senior executive Yahoo! Who was the dominant company at that point. And if you told them, the most important asset you have is shared address books. They’d be like, That’s dumb. Address books is like a feature. And if you told them that, like that part that would search through the web turned out to be the most valuable part. They’d be like, That’s dumb. That’s just a feature of our portal. But of course, it turned out that Google, which indexed the web and then became like the stopping point for everyone else, turned out to be incredibly valuable. And that shared contact list is basically social. Right. And it turned out that like that turned out to be the really, really valuable thing. And so we’re still at a point where we don’t really know what’s going to be the durably valuable thing. And so we’re all playing around right now. And so if I’m an entrepreneur, I’m at least devoting, you know, sort of a few hours a day just trying to figure out the outlines of what’s possible right now.

William Norvell: That’s good. That’s good

Henry Kaestner: Wow, that’s awesome. So that is a great takeaway. Spending some concerted time thinking through this, reading up on it, because it does feel like this is a marketplace changing type of event and it’s a big deal. There’s going to be opportunities for great innovation, for inclusion in your business. And we need to be able to have answers about how this impacts our life. And so many of us are parents and we need to be thinking through this. And as we do that, I think that there’s going to be some great innovations and Lord willing, we’ll figure out what this means for translating the Bible and contextualizing the Bible into different languages and our languages, an infinite number of great applications, because it feels like this is a technology like so many others that could be used for good or for bad. And so Christ followers need to not bury their heads in the sand and just like, wow, this is this scares me. So we’re going to go away and we’re just going to be real conservative and we’re to, you know, go back and live on farms and not use phones. But we actually need to lean into this and get involved and get engaged and be serious because everybody else’s.

James Cham: Yeah, I think there are a few angles on that. So one is, you know, the biggest bargain in the world right now is 20 bucks a month to subscribe to chatGPT plus like I make no money, I have no financial interest in open AI. But I would do that. And you know how you said this is the time to read about it? This is probably the time to read about it. This is part time to read it and try it. Because the weird thing about now is that you literally can go on right now and you could get the capabilities that used to only be available to the smartest, smallest set of people inside Google. Right? And you suddenly now can play with these things and figure it out faster than they can what’s possible. So that’s one piece. I think the question that you asked about kids is just so, so important. And in some ways, we are really, really lucky because we’ve already experienced what the phone transition looks like, Right. And there’s a way in which we as parents can have a proper amount of skepticism about what works and doesn’t work. Right. That like if you were to go to 2010 and sort of think about like the phone and how your kids should think about the phone, right. You might have thought, well, this is so different from the web. It’s so different. But now we actually have specific examples, our head about what happens when these things become super, super accessible and what it means for folks to go astray and what it means for someone to be totally consumed by something. Right. And all those examples we can think about because they happened to us, right? And then we could be wiser about how we end up thinking about this for our kids.

William Norvell: It’s so good. You’ve been here before, so you know, we’re. We’re going to close. We would love to hear where God’s speaking to you today and whether that’s about AI or not. There’s a lot of other fun things he talks to us about. Where in his world are you today? And you know, what’s he telling you from his scripture and what’s coming alive to you in a new way?

James Cham: You know, the thing that has stuck with me for the last few years is this idea of old men dreaming dreams of revival. And I think that that continues to animate me and excite me, that I think that we’re at a time of great uncertainty, both from a technology point of view, but also from like be honest, like our position in the world as Americans. And I think it’s at those times of uncertainty where there’s the best chance of revival because suddenly we can’t rely on all the normal answers. Right? The things that have worked for us since, at least like, I don’t know, the mid eighties, they’re not working anymore. Right. And so this means that there’s a whole set of folks who are open to like God working in surprising ways. And I find that really encouraging. And so that’s the thing that I pray for and sort of try to dream these dreams and hope that young men and women do amazing things. And and that’s probably what excites me the most right now.

William Norvell: Amen.

Henry Kaestner: Amen, indeed. Fascinating.

William Norvell: Wait, I got something we’re going to finish with. I got something to finish with, so I just want to chatGPT while you’re here. And I told him to pretend that he’s Henry Kaestner, the host of faith driven entrepreneur podcast, co-founder of bandwith.com and Elder of the PCA church. I’d like to ask you some business questions. What are the three most important things to do as you build your business? According to Henry Kaestner AI, one faith integration pastor is a strong advocate for peace driven entrepreneurship. He believes one’s faith should not be separated from the work, but rather integrated into every aspect of it. People and culture employees are the backbone of any business, and Kaestner emphasized the importance of treating employees while fostering a positive company culture and investing in term and growth. Happy, motivated employees are more likely to deliver their best work, sustainable and ethical business practices. Number three Kaestner encourages entrepreneurs to focus on long term sustainable growth for short term gains and to make business decisions that are ethical in line with their faith and their values. Wow. We think. What do we think?

James Cham: You’re tearing up? You’re tearing up.

Henry Kaestner: While I get this stupid and I put it around my eyes. And fortunately, this isn’t a video podcast, but but yes, I am tearing up. But it doesn’t have to do with that. It’s fascinating and scary because what it doesn’t do is it doesn’t point to it talks about generally about faith as if that just kind of like a character attribute without a relationship with a living God who as sinful as I am, died for me. And our response and joy and gratitude of the gift of life now and eternal, that I can then just return to the altar with all that I am is the aroma of Christ to be a blessing and of others, and balancing the joy in the gratitude with the faithfulness and the obedience, and something as multidimensional and just spiritual in the aroma of Christ. So I would answer as a human being, I would answer those questions differently. Now, all of those things can glean different topics on the web, and yet it feels like it’s looked at it through an academic exercise versus a spiritual life, heart transformation one.

James Cham: So I would not anchor myself too much on the idea that that won’t change. And I did a bad job of explaining this earlier. But these models are just based on what people have said, right? And these models are just trying to the best they can to guess what would be the next word based on the first set of words that you gave it to. And then what’s interesting is, like as we progress and provided with more words, the more data or certain types of words and certain kinds of data, then the models will say something different. And so I bet you that if it recorded everything that Henry said on a daily basis and you sort of asked that question again, it would come up with a different answer. And so the super uncomfortable, weird, like I think what’s going to be uncomfortable for us is how good these things are at like feeling human, right? And that’s going to be both a great salve for us. It’ll like make life is a lot better and it’ll also be a great temptation.

Henry Kaestner: Well, yeah. Okay.

William Norvell: Fascinating.

Henry Kaestner: That is fascinating. James. Thank you, brother. Thank you for your friendship, for your partnership. And thank you for spending time. And may the Lord bless you as you get ready to make this presentation in Washington and excited to see how God will go through you and and may He lead all of his people to being able to be participants in the new technology and lean into it and just maybe protect us all. In Jesus name, Amen.

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John and Luke are joined by David Erickson, the Chief Investment Officer of Ascension Investment Management for this month’s edition of Marks on the Markets.

Ascension Investment Management helps their clients reach socially responsible investment goals without sacrificing returns. They do this by delivering high-quality comprehensive investment solutions that enable clients to better carry out their mission by allowing them to focus on the big picture

In this episode, David unpacks their approach in more detail, gives an overview of what he’s seeing in the market, and helps us understand the value of thematic investing. 

If you like this episode, be sure to follow, review, and share the show.

Relevant Links:

https://ascensioninvestmentmanagement.com/

Episode Transcript

John Coleman: Welcome back to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is John Coleman, your host, and I am joined today by co-host Luke Roush. Luke, how are you doing this morning?

Luke Roush: It’s a great day to be live, John. Good to be with Dave here.

John Coleman: That’s an endorsement. That’s an endorsement. Well, today we have a very special episode of Mark’s on the Market. We have Dave Erickson with us. Dave is the CIO of Ascension Investment Management, which manages more than $40 billion in assets dominantly for Catholic clients and institutions. And so they’ve been doing great work for a long period of time. Dave’s held that role since 2009. I believe he had more than 30 year career in investment management, including the University of Wisconsin, Strong Capital, PNC Bank, Chemical Bank and other institutions. And we are very fortunate to have Dave today talking to us about themes he’s seeing in the market and the way in which Ascension conducts thematic investing. So Dave, thank you for being here with us today.

Dave Erickson: Thank you for having me.

John Coleman: Well, listen, the first thing we like to do here, given that this is a mark’s on the market, where we’re just hearing perspectives on the current market environment is to get your kind of broad overview of where you think things stand today. It’s been choppy for the last 18 months Here. We’re recording in September of 2023. What’s your outlook for the remainder of the year for these choppy markets?

Dave Erickson: Well, again, thanks for having me. That’s the question of the hour is which landing do we have? Is it a soft landing? Is it a hard landing? Is it a no landing? And what’s been interesting over the last few months, it feels like there have been months. They’ve had each theme and it’s switched to another. It seems like, well, we’re definitely no landing. Its place is coming down. We seem to be going a soft landing. So that’s what we’re debating right now. I was recently at a conference where there is a panel of economists and they all were relatively in the same ballpark of kind of feeling pretty good about a soft landing. And it makes me nervous whenever I hear a consensus and people are agreeing, I feel like, well, there must be something we’re missing and something is wrong. You know, if I think of the history of how we’ve gone through Fed cycles and economic cycles, you know, normally if we hit a inflationary period, the Fed raises rates. It usually there’s a lag before those rates take effect. And if rates go too far, sort of slows the economy, too much unemployment rises. And some of that had it made a good point to me once that said, you know, unemployment has never gone up 1% or at least rarely have gone up 1% and stopped, which is what the Fed is trying to engineer right now. They want inflation to come down and inflation goes up a little bit. You know, we can handle that, but maybe we go from three and a half to four and a half, or if it stays there, there is your soft landing. I’m just skeptical that we can reach that so perfectly. You know, I think the lag of what the Fed increases and interest rates has had in the economy is not fully been felt. And I feel like we’re feeling it now. We’re seeing credit card delinquencies increase. We’re seeing layoffs, you know, gradually, you know, all of the growth metrics and consumer outlooks, you know, all those are just kind of getting a little bit worse. And that’s what it would look like if it became a hard landing, is you would see inflation drop, which is great. But then you’d also see growth in economic numbers also decline. You know, will it sort of glide into a really nice ending so that we hit a soft landing? And I think that question is still open for debate. You know, they’ve raised it very, very quickly. The economy, our economy, the global economy has been built on 0% interest rates for a very, very long time. And what happens when you refinance, you know, at five, six, seven or higher? I think those things are all in front of us. I have lots of thoughts about that. And can in all of that is that we’re trying to figure this out on the backs of a pandemic that we’ve never experienced before. So when someone says you should never say it’s different this time, I think, well, maybe it is different this time, because I don’t know if we’ve ever had a pandemic in an economy like this. So maybe we were fine. The pandemic came. There’s a lot of moving back and forth to get to equilibrium, but we will get there because we’re just trying to get through something we’ve never experienced before. So I guess I think forward I’m hopeful for a soft landing that at least if it’s a recession, it’s mild. But I think there’s a real risk that we sort of dip into more recessionary period then sort of hit it just right.

Luke Roush: To do a follow up on that is, you know, when you think about kind of a return to normal and what that looks like, do you think of it as kind of a return to historical norms, then we probably keep rates where they are? Or do you see us actually going back to where we were in 2017, 1819?

Dave Erickson: Yeah, I think it’s hard to imagine we go back to zero or, you know, one or 2% in short term rates. So, you know, but, you know, it has been in my career that I’ve seen, you know, short term rates at five, 6%. So, you know, we’ve been here before and I don’t remember us feeling that, you know, the world was falling apart or rates were too high. But we feel that now because we’re so used to zero, you know, our long term being two or 3% now our mortgage being sub 3%, you know that it’s seven. You know, our hair is on fire. There was a time when that was true. So what is normal? You know, those are just such good questions are the answer to, you know, I would be able to trade the next five, ten years and just do it. Great. You know, I think there were deflationary forces that we’ve been building upon for years with China exporting deflation for a long time. I think that is generally over or, you know, we have to have severe change to see that come back into play so that maybe, you know, what was normally, 2, as a short term rate, you know, maybe that adds another percent or two on top of that deep globalization. At the same time, the rate of technology change is so incredibly fast, it’s something that we’re super interested in. So, you know, normal to me feels like, you know, short rates on two or three long rates, you know, five ish or something, you know, could that be lower than we are now? But not back to the crisis days of 0%? You know, I think that would feel real good to me. A positive yield curve rates. People can earn money on their cash to some degree, but maybe not as high as we are now.

John Coleman: Well, Dave, one of the things I want to dig into with you deeply is this idea of thematic investing. So I had a chance to attend your investment conference just a couple of months ago. And what I found fascinating about Ascension Investment management’s approach to this and your approach to this was how thoughtful you were about formulating themes around which you are investing. And so what I wanted to do now was maybe get an overview just of how you guys think about thematic investing and what your themes are for the year, and then maybe start to spend some time walking through those as well. And so if you don’t mind, just for our listeners, lay out what is thematic investing look like at Ascension Investment Management and what are your themes for 2023?

Dave Erickson: Great question. So buckle up for this one because this is something I am very interested in talking about. But for context, as you mentioned, I have been in investing for a long time and you know, back in, you know, the nineties and the 2000, 2010, it seemed that if you were an institutional investor, a CIO, one of the themes that you really focused on was diversification, almost to the point that diversification was the goal. You know, you almost like if you had a new manager with return stream that was uncorrelated at it because you know, you can either lever that up or you know, you can add that to the portfolio and get a higher risk adjusted returns. So if you found another risk adjusted return manager, add that one. So diversification became the goal. Hedge funds really met this test because they were doing lots of different and interesting things. And so I really built portfolios and a lot of my career on that training is that it was diversification, diversification by asset class, by geography, by, you know, types of investment equity to debt. And as time went on, I thought, you know, we’re going through such technological change and disruption across all different areas health care, entertainment, just the technology just goes on and on that it seemed like we were spending a lot of time in diversifying asset classes that were capturing some of these themes, but also were capturing old themes because we just this is how we did it. And one thing that was a challenge for a CIO, I think for any investor that has to work with clients and explain their process is that if you ever want to make a change, it’s hard to change a process that you’ve defended in the past that you’ve done because it feels like you’re saying, You know what? I used to say it like this. Now I want to do it like this. And no one really likes, you know, changing processes at all. Feels like maybe something’s wrong. But one thing that was a blessing in disguise, I shouldn’t say because I know the pandemic was so terrible for people, but in a way, there was a consequence for us is that it almost drew a line in the sand for us to say, Hey, wait, we should be doing things different. The world has changed at the pandemic and maybe we should approach investing differently. And we saw that one of our health care clients you mentioned, we’re Ascension Investment management. We’re a subsidiary of Ascension, the health care system. And so we got to see a lot of disruption happen in the pandemic through the health care system. And one of it was telehealth that we were interested in having telehealth be released to our patients. And almost overnight, you know, March to April, the numbers went through the roof and we saw quickly that the disruption pace that we might have been before, whatever that arc was, is now been accelerated to a significant degree. And I felt that was true across the board and I felt this might be now a good time for us to change our approach and think about investing portfolios differently. And if someone says, Why are you changing? I had something. Well, the pandemic has changed things. So what we did at that point was we changed our team to be from asset class specialists who used to have an equity director, hedge fund person, real assets, you know, private equity. And what I found over time, what had happened the past, that if you were, say, a hedge fund manager, you were looking for the best hedge funds. If you were a real asset person, you were looking for real estate and you’d pound the table for a real estate almost all the time. And I wanted someone to think more. What are the themes that are important? And we can figure out the structure, the type of fund, the type of manager, but let’s find a theme. Let’s get that went behind our back first, because I feel like this change is coming. So we changed our folks to be generalists as opposed to specialists in asset class. And we’ve set up our process to say, go out and talk to as many people as you can and look for disruptive themes that we want to capture and at the flipside, you know, find disrupted areas that we want to avoid. And that caused us to, as I said, changed our staffing, it changed our asset allocation. We just basically said we’re no longer interested in certain asset classes like it [….] went down, certainly. But what we focused on is disruptive themes and themes that we want to capture. And if we get that right and are truly long term investors, I feel like we’re going to capture this correctly.

John Coleman: And before you get into the theme, because I actually think that’s one of the most interesting parts of this is what you’ve selected. And I’ve seen a preview of that at your conference. Just quickly comment. So how much does that actually shape the portfolio? And this is a question I had. So if you have these kind of $40 billion in assets, 40 billion plus, I would assume you still have some exposures that you’re seeking by asset class. You want some fixed income exposure, some public equities exposure, and then these themes are driving kind of a layering of that. But just talk, if you would, about how much of the portfolio is actually shaped by the themes versus more conventional exposures that you have, because I think this will be a new concept for a lot of people.

Dave Erickson: Yeah, I mean, we still have asset classes, We have to build a portfolio, we have to have benchmarks, you know, so we can at the end of the day, compare it to something. So if I were to think of in broad asset classes, we have public equities, we have private equities and private asset classes, we have cash and fixed income, and then we have some inflation assets that are more like insurance policies. We only use commodities and tips as an assurance policy for inflation, But don’t get into much more specifics than that. So the themes that we captured the best is in public and private equity. I mean, that’s really where we can look for long term thematic approaches and all the areas that I mentioned that we want to be owners of these companies and these ideas. You know, certainly you can pick it up in venture capital, for example, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be. But also in lending, you know, when we look at lending as a good example, you could have lots of diversified lending approaches, but we want to even be thematic there like, do we want to lend to, you know, energy or. Fossil fuel versus maybe data centers or cell phone towers. You know, we would be much more, you know, into the data side. We think that’s got the wind to our back as opposed to maybe a very well defined strategy. But it’s in an industry that we think is being disrupted. So, you know, we only have limited capital. We don’t have to do everything. We’re just going to choose the areas that we think have those themes.

John Coleman: Well, and if you would, now maybe you lay out at a high level what your themes are currently. And then Luke and I might just try and dig into those a bit more as you do that, just to understand where those came from and what you’re expecting in those different areas.

Dave Erickson: Yeah, so my team is the experts on these themes. I seemed to learn from them. We have these Monday get togethers called Lunch and Learns. That was another process that we had because we said, Hey, as generalists, you’re going to be out learning all these things and bring it back as a presentation to the group. And so I’m constantly learning about solar, you know, coming from space or deep sea mining for resources, like we have all these different things. But I had said one time, I don’t think I can do this and get away with this, but if I could build a portfolio from scratch, put it into a safe and not open it up for ten years, you know, I think there are three themes I’m really excited about. And what I would do is build a portfolio of these three themes from an equity perspective, say, private public, and then have some cash because I need to have cash and spending, maybe some fixed income for downside protection, like that’s my portfolio. If I could do that, those growth themes come down to three that I’m really excited is technology generally. But artificial intelligence. I would say specifically it is the kind of revolution that we’re seeing in health care and the transition to clean energy. I think those are three amazing themes that is coming now. Picking the winners and losers. Exactly is the trick. You know, it’s not every company that does is in these areas are going to be the next Amazon or what have you. But I think those are themes that if you just even were really good at those, you’re going to do really, really well. I’m sure there are many others. We feel like, you know, robotics, entertainment and VR space, there’s all kinds of things I think, that are just super interesting. But those three that I mentioned are the three key themes that we’re thinking about a lot.

Luke Roush: One of the things that stuck out to me, Dave, when you’re just providing the background, is this idea that you’re focused on kind of a ten year period, not a one year period or a three year period or a five year period. So kind of anchoring into those more time, less things rather than timely things. I think it’s important for your team. I’m curious kind of within AI health care and just kind of the revolution and change that’s occurring there as well as the clean energy industry, Are you actually taking kind of long positions on the disruptors and short positions on those that will be disrupted? Or are you more just trying to pick winners in that disruptor category?

Dave Erickson: Yeah, I think we are more picking winners and using that in our private equity space. Private credit, private real asset, you know, those that are structured to be long term, it’s not trading on a daily basis, you know, can take long term approaches to it, don’t have shareholders to answer to. So a lot of those themes can be, I think, best captured in the private equity space. But, you know, at the same time, many of these things are going to be picked up in public companies. You know, they have the money, the research, the, you know, Google and Apple. And so, you know, just owning those, I think, will pick up as well. But we don’t necessarily short the ideas as much as just avoiding the asset classes. So just for example, and, you know, if there are listeners out there there in these asset classes, you know, forgive me, I’m sure it’s and in the near term it could be very profitable. But, you know, like in high yield bonds, for example, that was a separate asset class for us with its own benchmark. And my thought process there, you know, these are generally companies that are over leverage but have high leverage, you know, have a lot of exposure and energy in different places. And so they’re rather than, say, short, you know, different industries, we just step aside, you know, and stay away from areas that are kind of not in these themes. And so if we can pick that right, I think shorting is just too difficult. And in the near term, we do have to live in the near term. So none of my clients that I work with is willing to sell you on a ten year basis. You know, I have to meet with them quarterly. And so if I, for example, think fossil fuels is a disrupted industry and then the Ukraine war happens, they lead, you know, the sectors in the S&P, you know, my performance can be really, really difficult. So we’re not so much shorting. It’s just we are under weighting those asset classes and trying to capture the long term in the privates.

John Coleman: Given the nature of Ascension investment management, you’d mentioned this going in. I’m actually fascinated by this disruption health care topic, Dave, because you guys are so close to this and I know we’ve seen this for a while heading into the pandemic. For example, one of the funds that I was leading had fortunately selected a couple of telehealth and e-health services. So like what was called Roman health at the time, now called ROE, there is a series of kind of mail order health. et cetera. And even at sovereigns, we’ve taken some bets on that space. But given that you have such an interesting perspective on this, both in the markets as well as part of this big health care company. When you say disruptions in health care, what does that look like right now? What themes do you think are playing out within that space?

Dave Erickson: Well, you know, certainly the health care industry is being disrupted by, you know, as much of the telehealth, but even, you know, urgent care centers that you see, you know, as opposed to going to hospitals necessarily. You know, how we staff logistics. I see that there are some robots being used in different places. So, you know, within that, like the ascension of related, I just think that the interaction with data and I don’t really know how artificial intelligence is going to be used necessarily within, say, health care system. But the things that I’m interested in more is more the longer term themes that I think will eventually affect all health care systems, you know, personalized medicines. It is using artificial intelligence to scan lab reports or data. It could be, you know, could we assist our nursing through some more efficiencies? I don’t know if robot nurses are a thing. I know that they exist and can do some functions. Certainly don’t know if they can replace, you know, the personalized care that you have. But, you know, there as I go through conferences, the challenge we have in health care is that, you know, we have some really interesting solutions. It’s very expensive. We’ve got to bring those costs down. So that’s affordable for everyone. It is just, I think, just an area that’s just ripe for ideas. And, you know, the specifics, it’s hard to get into to all of them. But, you know, those are just, I think, areas that are really interesting. And yeah, I think those are there’s I think that we’ll be pursuing.

John Coleman: And we recently had a guy named Finny Kuruvilla from Eventide on one of these marks in the markets episode, and he is a biotech and health care investor generally. And what I’m constantly reminded of myself Dave, because I agree with all the themes you outlined, he was great about pointing out just the increasing advances in biotechnology and understanding the human body, which is actually a hopeful theme right now. You know, a lot of what we see in the world is maybe heading the wrong direction, but some of the breakthroughs that we’re seeing in things like understanding neurological systems, understanding the way in which biotechnology can treat common causes of death like heart attacks or cancer, etc.. I just think it’s an incredibly interesting space, particularly on the venture and growth equity side, where you’re able to take advantage of some of the innovations that are happening in that industry as scientific progress continues to march forward.

Dave Erickson: Right, yeah. And you know, you see what was done with the pandemic, how we were able to come up with the vaccine that the new technology so quickly. I think I was really struck. I attended the Milken Institute conference, California, and that’s a very thematic conference. They’re going through all kinds of things like education, health care, and just sort of panel after panel on the health care side. It just was so interesting of just the research that they’re doing, the solutions that they’re tackling. It’s amazing. I think right now we’re trying to tackle it more from going to a very specific type of solution because we don’t really know where it’s all going. I’m sure it is a long road, but I think it’s an area that’s that’s going to have some amazing solutions. And so we’ll continue to pursue that space.

Luke Roush: Yeah, Dave that resonates with me. Just in terms of specificity on the problem that you’re trying to solve as you think about disruptive change in health care, I personally, you know, totally agree with the idea that specificity matters in terms of what you’re trying to get after. I want to switch over from health care to artificial intelligence, just because that seems like it’s kind of the phrase of the year for 2023. Love to get kind of your views on how you’re leaning into that as a trend. And maybe in a similar vein, is health care. Are there specific niches where you really feel like there’s promise to be an early mover as an investor?

Dave Erickson: Yeah, I suppose there’s two types of people. When Chat GPT drop, I think there are some that just dove in and couldn’t stop talking about it. That’s me. And then there are others who roll their eyes about it, and that’s my my kids at least are my or my wife and they’re tired of hearing about it. I just think that the artificial intelligence in ChatGPT, for example, is so interesting because it just almost was a fully formed technology that had been worked on for years, but sort of fell into my lap almost overnight. And I’ve seen people compare the technology of AI to the Internet, you know, is, you know, you got to make sure you’re not investing in Netscape, you know, so you got to make sure you do Amazon. So take it slow, take it slow, take it slow. And I think that’s true. I don’t know if the winners today will be the ones that we’re talking about five years from now. But when I think about the Internet, for me it was a slow process that I learned, you know, I had to get the technology to get installed. When it worked on my computer, it was very slow. So maybe I could do an email or upload something, but it would take forever. ChatGPT almost worked instantly for me and changed the world almost overnight. And it was free and it was easily accessible. Very quickly was an app on my phone. And so I feel like it’s almost like a different kind of technology. I think it’s more like maybe electricity in a way, is that, you know, before it was dark and now it’s like it wasn’t a gradual thing. And and the infrastructure is pretty easy if you have the Internet, you had chat the next day. So I think we’re still grappling with exactly all of the uses for it. I’m not one of those that feel it’s going to destroy us all or, you know, we’re all going to lose our jobs. But it’s an amazing tool that you can use right now. You know, I think for us and we’re as a team doing a team project where we’re talking to all of our partners and using it ourselves and then coming back to say, what are some applications today that we can use to make ourselves more efficient? And what, where do we think it’s going? And just the things that I just quickly say, you know, things today is that it helps me summarize and it helps me produce, helps me write like a lot of ways if I need to respond to someone and it takes me a half hour or so to put something out, I can probably get some a few thoughts down, have Chat write something for me, I can edit it. And that process now is 10 minutes as opposed to 30 minutes. So in terms of making me more efficient today, it’s fantastic. We don’t use it for helping us answer investment questions yet. You know, for us too, I don’t know if I trust the data at least. And actually I used it to come up with a trivia night for my family reunion. And one of the questions said that the sinking of the Titanic was in 1963, which I was like, Yeah, that’s not right. I have to be careful with the hallucinations for it. But I think the future, it just, it, it should just continually get better. And one of the things that I’m interested in, I would love to be able to take all of our data and put it into an AI sort of learning language model that can just be self-contained with our data, all of our notes, all of our research, all of our manager letters so that we can have a conversation with that data that I could say, you know, what’s our exposure in China, for example? And it can tell me, I don’t want to going out to the university, I’d like to build a self contained that I certainly am looking forward to. You know, Microsoft and Google applications that will be built in that I maybe I can speak a presentation into existence. You know, those are all things I think we are just about there and similar to our phones and maybe the iPhone is a good example. When we got the iPhone, it sort of changed things, but it eventually got better and better with apps is that we will continue to find, Hey, I use it for this way and someone else will say, That’s a great idea, I’ll use it, and it’ll just sort of multiply on itself. So I think we are just at the beginning stages of how we are going to be working differently with artificial intelligence. I think it’s more of a it’s a tool at this point than a replacement. I think it probably will replace in some ways, just like all technology does. But, you know, this is something that we have a high interest in. We want to understand it. It was spending just a lot of time in it. One thing and the last thing I would just add that I think is interesting is that most of the AI applications I think we’ll find in existing things we already have. So like Microsoft Office, there’s going to be an AI component to that. So is there a new company to invest in or does that just make Microsoft better? You know, so is I just going to be because you need the data, you need the computing power? You know, will there be a slew of new companies? Will Netscape and AOL be replaced by Google and Amazon, or is that just going to make the existing even better? Because it’s hard to have all the tools you need to make the effect of We’ll see about that. We’re trying to play either side of that and hoping finding more winners and losers on this.

Luke Roush: And that’s one of the things I think you’re going to have a real interesting front row seat to, given your themes you described, is the intersection of AI and health care and the use case that you describe in your own firm is also what a lot of health care foundations are looking for, which is kind of privatized data lakes or ponds where you can control what’s in there. You can control confidentiality of patient data, but still use that technology to be able to draw conclusions on treatment regimens, etc.. So have you seen any of that kind of intersectionality between those two themes today?

Dave Erickson: I’m sure that’s happening. If I had others on my team that are hitting the road and doing that, I would see that more. You know, I know there is a big we want to be very careful, you know, that data has to be ringfenced, you know, so that is not public domain or I don’t know of any example where that’s being used within health care necessarily. But, you know, I hear of the situations of, you know, a doctor analyzing x rays versus the AI and that effectiveness and where does that go. So I’m probably not the best person to answer all of those specifics within health care, but it just has to believe that it’s coming that why wouldn’t you use this technology to help you make. Better decisions alongside your own, I think is going to make things a lot more effective.

John Coleman: I want to back up a little bit and add one more layer to this, because you obviously, given the nature of this podcast in your work, have one more layer to your investments, which is the values of the people that you represent. Ascension Health is a Catholic institution. You represent a number of Catholic institutions with various values. I know the Catholic Church has been quite thoughtful about owning some of those, and then some of the groups you work with will have an even different set of priorities, I think, or a way in which they approach those priorities. As you approach your investment on behalf of those individuals, how do you think about incorporating Catholic values into your investing and what can that look like along the spectrum?

Dave Erickson: Okay. Yeah, it’s interesting. Ascension Investment Management, our parent Ascension, you know, is a very Catholic institution. I mean, it is we think of what we do as a ministry. You know, number one, we talk about our hospital systems as health ministries. We pray before most of our meetings. So we get together and think about it in terms of forwarding Jesus healing ministry. So I was so fortunate. It wasn’t necessarily my plan to have work so incorporate with my faith. But I’ve been blessed to work for Ascension and just some amazing people here, the way they approach their faith with this, which it was very evident to me early on, is that they did not want to invest in anything that violated their values. And so it was immediately very clear that we have a very sophisticated social responsible investment guidelines. I would say in terms of the Catholic space, I would put up our guidelines in terms of its sophistication and how we really try to refine it to work with managers and line up with anyone else’s. So that’s number one, is just making sure that whatever we do is that we are not violating our values. We’re trying to for the Catholic Church values and yet invest in the exact opposite. That would just be working against ourselves. But the second has been is how do we then be proactive in, you know, having our values be known and accomplished through the world. And we have different ways of doing that. Certainly within our companies, we are providing health care at discounted rates or for free. I mean, that’s what our non-for-profit health care system does. But we also have spent many, many dollars on impact investing, which I’m sure you’ve covered and lots of other podcasts. We’ve been doing impact investing since 2014. In 2014, we raised about $50 million in a fund of funds, all private funds either in environmental stewardship or in solutions that help the poor and vulnerable. And that could be in education, housing, food, financial inclusion. We’ve done lots of things. I know you’ve talked to Patrick Fisher. We’ve been a good partner with Patrick at Creation for a long time, so I’ve been so blessed with is that when we’ve asked to do new things and new ideas that would be proactively forwarding the values of the Catholic Church, they have been very willing to support us. And so it really feels that my faith has been intertwined with my work, and I feel very blessed about that.

John Coleman: Yeah, And just one quick follow up question on that. I will say, having been at your conference, I was privileged to meet some of the folks who invest with you all, and it’s often priests or nuns or others who have dedicated their life in service in such a deep and authentic way. Right? I mean, they really everything to their faith. One of the interesting components of your work, I think, is that and I think you don’t mind me saying this, you’re a Protestant Christian work [……] institution. And so maybe just comment. You know, often we see those worlds a bit divided, honestly in the impact space or in the investing space. Talk about how that works for you all and just the way in which you see your personal faith, if you don’t mind intersecting with that work and with these Catholic institutions.

Dave Erickson: Yeah, it’s really interesting. You know, I went to Wheaton College and so, yeah, I went I grew up in an evangelical church and and actually with my background, I had not spent much time with nuns or priests or really in Catholic faith. I had friends, but I had never really had attended services or may have been to a wedding or two. So there’s a lot of education for me to sort of understand. But it was very clear to me when I saw, like in the […..] guidelines of the things they wanted to restrict. I thought that just completely aligns with the values that I grew up with, whether it’s Protestant, Wheaton College or not. So what I’ve really been challenged by is I feel like in my church upbringing, it feels like the emphasis has been on grace. You know, it’s, you know, we’re forgiven. There’s no works I can do to receive the grace I received from Jesus. And so I think sometimes that can focus me more on sort of de-emphasizing works. I always like its grace alone. And so with Ascension, so the emphasis like, no, you know, we also want to do works, you know, and to see the sisters that I work with have dedicated their lives to, you know, works for the church, for the poor and suffering that has really challenged me. That just they shouldn’t be just sitting here and having devotions, you know, I should be out in the world and doing things as well. So they have really challenged me, you know, to get off my seat, to do more. And in terms of, you know, conflicts, I don’t feel like there is anything other than that challenge that, you know, we need to be caring for the poor, the widows, the orphans. And I think that’s affected my faith in going forward in my other church life.

Luke Roush: Yeah, that’s great. Great insight and great commentary. Switching gears just slightly into the work Dave that you guys do, allocating to other fund managers, what do you look for in those partners? How do you think about the relationship over time? Love to hear your comments on that.

Dave Erickson: Yeah, that’s a really interesting question. It varies by type. You know, I like to say we pick managers that share our values, you know, through and through. And it’s hard to always know picking through investment partners, they are experts at telling their story to us. And so I think one of the things I’ve learned more and more is that. One of the worst things I can do is to ask about, say, should I invest in China or not, is to talk to a China long only manager. Because you know what? They’re experts in having me invest in their fund. They’re going to tell me it is a great time. Invest in China or real estate or wherever that might be. So I think we do want to have very good relationships with managers. We do want to feel that they are partners with us. We need them to understand how we invest with our values. So if they are pushing against us, that’s not going to work. And so we quickly move away from that. I think that we where all this on our sleeve aggressively. So I think if Ascension coming in, they know this is what’s coming. We’re going to be coming with an SRI guidelines and lots of values on our sleeve. You know, we just we need them to show a definable edge that they can provide, that they are invested in areas that are in those thematic things. And if it’s something we just want beta, we just want exposure, then, you know, a lot of times we have lean toward more, say, quantitative managers that we can get lower expense basis, that we can really define exactly what we’re getting. But it all depends, you know, tenure relationships with private managers. You know, there is character building there that we need to find. It’s just very difficult to do even if you can visit them every day for, you know, every month for a year. And you are you really getting to know them? You do the best that you can. You want to pick ethical partners. You do a lot of reference calls, you do everything you can. But that is challenging. You know, these are people at the end of the day and trying to judge them is a challenging job. I think we’ve done a pretty good job. If I look through our managers now, I think we have people that have proven to be good partners. And when we go back to them, you know, with other products that they might be using because we’ve built trust over time.

John Coleman: Yeah. And I think people lose that sometimes who aren’t deep, especially in the private markets, is it’s as much about the people that you’re investing with and their alignment and their process and those sorts of things as anything, you know, given this is the Faith Driven Investor podcast, we do like to end every interview with a relatively unique question for an investing podcast, which is just is there anything you’re learning in Scripture right now that you wanted to share with others? I know you’ve got a deep faith. Life, as you’ve already articulated, would love to hear anything on your mind right now that’s prominent in your study of Scripture that you think others might like to hear about?

Dave Erickson: Yeah, I think the one thing I was driving at, I listen to a podcast, you know, often if I have time, I listen to Tim Keller’s sermons, which I just I know a lot of people do, and I’m sure there are others that are up and comers. But man, I just love coming back to Tim Keller and I listen to one on sort of Jacob wrestling with God and well, the one the point that he made about that was that as Jacob was struggling with his birthright and with his family and he was ready to sort of have this wrestling match with his family as he was going through that, then all of a sudden God showed up and wrestled with him instead. And I thought the point of it, without going into all kinds of detail, is that a lot of times when we’re struggling with something, we think we’re wrestling with work, we’re wrestling with the person at work. It could be a spouse, it could be. And, you know, we’re preparing ourselves to wrestle with these people. And a lot of times it’s not that who are wrestling with. We’re wrestling with God. We’re wrestling. There’s something in our lives that we’re struggling with. That’s where we’re really trying to work out. And if we sort of think about that and work that out with him directly, then that will take care of other things. And so I have been spending some time, you know, as work is challenging, my kids are grown and they still provide challenges and things like that. But I find a lot of times, you know, the wrestling that I’m doing that I think, oh, why is life unfair? It’s something within me that I’m wrestling with God. And if I get that right, some of these other things hopefully correct itself. So those are conversations I’ve been having with friends and pastors recently. When I know you asked this question, that was the immediate thing that came to my mind.

John Coleman: Well, Dave, we are very grateful for this conversation. And, you know, at Sovereigns, we often say capital has influence. Right. And that bears a responsibility for us because those of us who steward capital are responsible for making sure that’s a positive influence on the world. And I think it’s an encouragement to us and to all of our listeners that someone of your deep conviction, your deep values, is working on behalf of these really authentic Catholic organizations to try and steward their capital well and to create a better world as a result of that capital. So we’re really grateful for you for the work that you do, and we’re also grateful to you for joining the podcast today. Thanks so much. Dave Erickson from Ascension Investment Management.

Dave Erickson: Thank you so much for having me.