John Coleman: Welcome to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is John Coleman back with you today. And I’m here with my partner Luke Roush, who appears to be in some sort of fancy hotel.
Luke Roush: Live from Chattanooga, Tennessee. Kinley hotel downtown across the street from Chattanooga. Choo choo. Big times.
John Coleman: How is the Kinley Hotel? It’s like a murder hotel, right, Luke? Isn’t it famous for some sort of high profile murder?
Luke Roush: That’s unclear, but there is a speakeasy in the lobby, which I’ve been told by others that it’s quite a good place to imbibe.
John Coleman: Fantastic. And what are you in Chattanooga for, Luke today? Just leisure, or you […] ?
Luke Roush: Yeah, we got a little you know, we like to periodically introduce our investors to our CEOs and we’re going to have opportunity to do that with couple of companies tomorrow here in Chattanooga and then also over in Huntsville. So big time.
John Coleman: Well, that’s fantastic. And I know we’re both really excited about today’s podcast because we’re privilege to welcome folks that we’ve known for a while, folks that a lot of people have benefited from their wisdom. John and Ash Marsh are here with us, and it’s difficult to really encapsulate who these two are because they’re entrepreneurs, they’re real estate developers, they’re creatives, they’re counselors. They generate a lot of witty repartee. And so I feel like this will be an edifying and wide ranging discussion for folks today. So, John and Ash, thanks so much for joining us.
John Marsh: It’s great to be here. What a great group of guys you are. And thank you for all the work the FDI is doing in the world. And FDE, you are a light in its penetrating dark corners as you share the powerful things you do. So thank you all for the work you’re doing is making a difference.
John Coleman: Well, thank you all for the work you’re doing, which we’re going to hear a lot more about. You know, just to get us started, some folks will be familiar with you, John and Ash, because you’ve been on the FDE podcast before, you know, some folks in the community. But just for those of you less familiar. Give us a little bit of your story. Where’d you grow up? How did you come to know one another? Your business partners now, as well as life partners, which we’ll dig into. But tell us a little bit about how that came about.
Ashley Marsh: So I am from Opelika. I actually grew up in a little mill village here called Pepperell, and I grew up in what was almost like perfect utopia. We had our own school, we had our own churches, we had a little marketplace. It was just wonderful. I honestly did not realize that I grew up on a side of town that was the other side of the tracks until I had to go to school. Somewhere on the other side of the tracks, I realized that we were poor. And so you didn’t know until you found out, right? So anyway, I grew up there and just had a very close family as far as all of my family worked at the mill and my uncles, cousins, grandparents, everything. But on along down the line, I meet John at about the whopping age of 18. They’ll head over heels. He was my James Dean, a little bit rugged around the edge. A little bit rebellious, actually. A lot bit rebellious. And he was my ticket out of Opelika. And here we are. We’re still in Opelika. So that worked so well. My claim to fame with John is I won him on a bet and that is a true story. I got bet that I could get him away from his girlfriend and I’m pretty competitive, so I like to win and there I go. I won them. So he’s all mine now.
John Coleman: And it was that a good investment Ash, has that investment paid off?
Ashley Marsh: Yes, it did have some negative interest in the beginning of it, but absolutely it is 100% the best investment I’ve ever made besides following God.
John Coleman: That’s awesome. In private equity, we call that a j curve. It’s that little dip before things get better.
Ashley Marsh: Right , right it’s a little dip and then it jumps off. Yeah.
John Coleman: That’s awesome. And John, you grew up in the area as well or what was your background?
John Marsh: I grew up in Albany, Georgia, about 2 hours south. People like, say, Albany, and that’s when, you know, you can know the difference. The test of them is it, is it a pecan or a pecan? Once you know that, you’ve got a true [..] on whether they’re from Albany but ended up here at 18 years old, you know, had this interesting start. My mom and dad tried to have a kid for 13 years. Couldn’t adopted me and 18 months later had my little brother. So my mom put the heavy […] in on me. She said, I’ve been looking at Anthony baby carrots for ten years. I’m going to love this guy and he can’t do anything wrong. So she still sticks with that. And just they gave me this amazing, you know, time of raising one thing. I reached out to my birth parents, and my father had passed away. Birth father. But I found my birth mother in an interesting way and didn’t really get to talk to her much. But I did tell her, Hey, I don’t know how that choice worked out for you, but it was amazing for me. And so this amazing story that God would take me from this place of where I couldn’t be loved because the situation to put in an environment where I was taken care of. So my parents loved me. I never had a real job and I still have it. And I started a business when I was 14, high end car stereos, and then just kept adapting. And I believe the same gifts I use today were the gifts I use in just God has continued to refine them, to see potential, give hope and see beauty and broken stuff. So it’s interesting to see that how it’s continuing to play out in different iterations. Our purpose was always running under the bottom, even when we didn’t use it in a way that honored the gift God had given us, it was still those same things.
Luke Roush: So how did you guys originally get started in the real estate? What was your draw there?
John Marsh: Well, actually, now we’re in the, believe it or not, the business. Before that, we were in the wreck used car business. So we built totals, we bought totaled Toyota, forerunners, Land Cruisers, Tundras and Sequoias and fixed them and sold them. I do all the framework and Ash should do the interiors and we’re putting these things together. And it was a lot of darned work we put all our money in. One of them, forerunners or Land Cruisers and take us about a month to do three or four of them and we’d be putting our hands on and praying they’d sell. We’d put all our grocery money and everything else, and the days our faith was at a very high level at that time. And then I’d drive to Atlanta and show it in about 50 people until somebody bought it. So from that context, were in the car business one day about this old junky house we lived in, took us six and a half years, one paycheck at a time, live in about a 600 square foot apartment, four of us to fix it. And when we got done, I said, What do you wanna do it? I won’t do another one. She said, What’s wrong with you? It was so hard, took so long. So I bought the house across the street and I just started realizing, Hey, I think houses are like cars with plumbing, they’re same stuff. And I said, Good thing about a house sit still and the car goes 80 miles an hour. And so that was started. We just found junky things that nobody wanted and we say what we can’t pay for. We don’t have any money. But would you lease them to. For $100 a month or $200 a month will pay you off in five years. We had no way to do that. But come to find out, there’s money in real estate. We didn’t have any clue. We just. I thought it was interesting and I normally change and don’t know it. Like, I’ll be changing careers and I don’t know. Ash will normally tell me, baby, do you know you’re not in that? Like I was saying, I won’t do these houses. She said, you already left the car business. I said, No, I’m not. I got cars to do in the shop. She’s like, No, your heart is left. You’re in the house business now. I am, huh? So that’s kind of how we got going.
John Coleman: That’s fantastic. And Ash, was it is immediate for you that you developed a passion for I mean, this is a peculiar type of investing kind of car flipping than moving the house flipping, I guess. When did it click for you or how did you get passionate about that?
Ashley Marsh: I’ve actually always loved restoration on old houses and historical items and honestly, I think John never really saw a historical homes when we first met. The same way that I saw them, he kind of look past them. But once your eyes get opened to not just the history of it, but the actual value of the craftsman and everyone that worked on it and how it really impacted the culture at the time and the community at the time. It just changes how you look at them. But my grandparents and my dad were all craftsmen, so I was always around people building, whether it’s building a room or a garage or spindles on a table or whatever. So I’ve always just loved it and putting my hands to things.
John Coleman: That’s awesome. And at what point did you realize this was going to be a successful model? So you’re living in this, you know, 600 square foot apartment. You’re rehabbing that and moving on to something else. Obviously, it’s grown into something far beyond that. But was there an inflection point where you thought, man, we actually we’re not just passionate about this, but this is a good idea. We can make money doing this.
John Marsh: It took a long time, I mean, definitely, real long time. Like, how could people be so slow kind of time? It was, like I said, slowly but slowly it was revealed Ash and I fixed our house. We’re in the middle of a hood and they’re like, Why are you fixing it so nice? This place is junky. And so we imagined we’d never get the money out of it. We spent on it at the time we took it, but we started fix another house and be honest what got it. So I started doing construction work and I was doing other people’s jobs. And so me and Ash start a construction company with like 12 or 1300 dollars. And that’s what we started. I just started taking jobs and I didn’t know anything about this, mind you, but I’m just taking a moment. And pretty soon we got like ten or 11 construction jobs going. We’re giving fix pricing and guaranteed time frames like we did on the cars. And nobody told us we shouldn’t do that.
Ashley Marsh: All right. I won’t have to interrupt him completely because he’s not telling you something. So whenever we first started, he was taking on every job he could find. If it was rebuilding a closet for someone, he was doing it and he was loving it. But what he was loving about it wasn’t that he was using his hands, is that in the middle of doing this, he was meeting all of these people and they were having church where he was. So he would be in there doing sheet rock in a closet and they would be in there talking about scripture. And it just kept going to the place to where people really wanted us or our crew to be on their sites because we were really bringing the presence of just the true spirit of God there and there was peace around us. And so word of mouth is what spread that. And the next thing you know, it was like John said in that place that we look up and you got ten full construction jobs and it’s like, oh my gosh. And then everyone calling and asking, can you move this house? Can you help restore this? Can you come downtown? It’s like you got a really big, really fast. And I believe that’s just the true nature of organic, right? That God shows sometimes […]blesses it.
John Marsh: Well and the thing we didn’t know, so I didn’t have any crew. So I just got guys from the car business because they seem like they yeah, it is like a car with plumbing. And so we started working on the house. We didn’t have any construction people, just car people. And then we started saying we need more workforce. And I realized that if I could go pick up the work release guys, we pick them up at five or 6 a.m. and take them back at five or six and they lay it out on you. I can tell you that they want to go. And so we had a whole crew of work release people and so we’re having a Bible study every morning, them guys getting saved by the truckloads. It was just it was crazy stuff and we didn’t know what we’re doing. Just telling people about this crazy God we found that loves idiots and we’re fixing stuff that nobody else would fix. And we thought, man, this is so much fun. I said, I see opportunity. I feel like a mosquito in a nudist colony. I just don’t know where to start when there’s so much opportunity. And it started making me trip breakers and there was everybody wanted me and I liked it. And then the city came to me and said, Buddy you got to get some license. I got to have license as they’re like, Yeah, you can’t be doing this much work without a builder’s license. So I had to go take study and take the builders test so I could get some license.
Ashley Marsh: And, you know, in that too, John, the amazing thing is being trusted with a little as always, God blesses you with much and the little that we were being entrusted with. I mean, we’re talking about thousands of dollars at a time. We weren’t doing as big a deal as we’re doing right now. Actually when I started our checking account for our construction company, we had $1172 and that was it. That was all we had and we had to be really wise stewards of that. But even with the men that John was going and picking up at work release, he developed such a trust with our judicial system and the judges and everything that they would call and actually ask, Hey, can we place this person with you guys? Because we know that you’ll be faithful to teach them and to steward them as a relationship. And so we had a lot of young men come out of that that actually started their own businesses. And it’s just been incredible to see that God blessed us in the midst of us really not knowing what we doing and just being willing to be faithful to what we had.
John Marsh: I think of one young man that came recently, has a huge roof, the commercial roofing company. I got him out on work release as a college kid that got a DUI and he was locked up. And then he did something else and got locked up. We got out on work release, learn roofing with us, and now he’s running, I mean, a monstrous roofing company. So it’s interesting. We just said it isn’t just witnessing this witness. I just tell him, go stand beside that Godly guy that’s done, got healed. And he just when he goes to bathroom, you sit outside the door. When he goes to lunch, you’re sitting with him. You commit two years. You do that. You read your one, your Bible, you pray, and you come to work every day. And I’m telling you, your life will change. And they have.
Luke Roush: So it’s not just witnessing, it’s with ness. And I think that, you know, it’s not just actually fixing broken buildings, but also what you’re really getting at is actually how God might use you guys to be participating in fixing broken people, of which we all are broken people. And you’ve made a comment before, John, around the way you approach real estate and the passion that you have for it is a mixture of making both your economics teacher and your Sunday school teacher proud. Talk through that a little bit. What does that mean? What does that look like?
John Marsh: Well, and a lot of that came from the original ad. Jess Corrals helped me a lot with thinking this through, because it it really is a challenge. But what God showed me when we were idiots and broke is that the answers and fishes and loaves you measure, you manage, you multiply. And what happens is you measure, you manage, God multiplies. That’s, you know, one of the fruits of the kingdom is the fruits are love, like multiplication. When you see multiplication, when God showed up everywhere. And so what we began to realize is that if we didn’t measure things well, how in the world could we manage them and how could God multiple them? So we were just as passionate about investing in the broken lives and making movement, whether it’s get them a budget, get them read in one year. Bible a good thing about reading the one year Bible We love you get a bunch of guys reading the one your Bible. You link up when you read the same piece of God’s word over and over. Not have guys. Did you see what David did? I was like, God said he loved him. I know he missed the dang thing. Was I bad as him? So we get on the same page and what we began to realize we want to move their lives and help them understand that if they measured and they manage their money according to God’s word, it would multiply. But if they did that with their life and their family, it would multiply. And so that’s how if we don’t feel like if we can only please the economics teacher and not the Sunday school teacher or the Sunday school teacher, not the economics teacher. It’s not for us. That’s our spot is to do both. And to be honest with you, we don’t consider deals any other way.
John Coleman: When you’re coming out of look, what’s interesting is you’re not traditional real estate investors. You dove in headfirst kind of fixing these places up, a totally different model, getting guys off work release, you know, patching together these teams. Not unlike how we brought Luke on the sovereign’s team. Actually, a bit unusual in the in the real estate space. You had to have made some mistakes along the way. It couldn’t have all been smooth, you know, as you built that, what did you what did you learn from some of the mistakes you made along the way?
John Marsh: I think my heart sinks when you say that. How many mistakes we made our not to do list is beautiful. We had tons of times where we felt like, you know, we called the defecation to hit the ventilation. We just did the dumbest stuff you can think of. But the challenging thing was that we didn’t know and didn’t have anyone who could help us. So some of the problems we were doing, number one, is we you know, we didn’t understand that the mindset to go from being a worker to a leader to an investor, all those are chasms to get over when you’re broke and right. I mean, one is I just got to survive. They’re like, I put everything on the line when you didn’t have nothing. That’s like putting up nothing, you know? I mean, you didn’t put any down if you don’t have anything, but then you start building and stuff starts moving and you, you have a little bit. And what one of our mentors did he told us, he said, John, you see what the guys in the construction business you’re working with, their vehicles are a pickup truck for Tempest Beyers, also because he owned a band good tires. So he said, you won’t drive the kind of truck they drive and live the way they live. I said, no, Sir. He said do nine jobs for other people and do one for yourself. And so he gave us this mindset of beginning to put some back and do some yourself. What that did is really helped us understand. But as we began and I hope we get to some more the investing part for us as investors, we did in my number one failure in business. I think in the early days it was that we played amateur providential assist sometimes in other people’s life and ended up hurting people. Because I had the gift to understand business, we could put money behind them and sometimes we’d put money behind people without experience that didn’t have the character to handle it, and we just helped them crash a car at a higher speed. And that’s probably one of the biggest things we messed up with our investment dollars. We call it a rent a Dream program. We needed rent and they had a dream and we’d invest in them and just it produced a dang mess.
Luke Roush: So, you know, I’m so glad you brought this up because it’s, I think, something that a lot of leaders wrestle with as companies grow. You’ve got to be able to recruit other people who can do what you’ve done previously, and you’ve got to be willing to let them stub their toes. You just got to make sure that they don’t, you know, end up with a massive chest wound, but like stubborn toes, skin and knees. That’s okay. How do you figure out what the guardrails are as you invest in individuals? What is sort of okay kind of learning by doing and some amount of minor failure in that versus know total high speed wreck. How do you make those judgment calls? Ashley and John.
Ashley Marsh: Yeah, honestly, we’ve learned that we want to make sure that we spend time with people and understand who they are at the core of how God made them and how they really process information, how they make decisions, how they show up, whether they’re under stress or not. And that has been key for us to really work well with our team and work well with our clients that we’re bringing on. So if we were looking to like we actually had a young man that came and visited with us not too long ago about opening a catering business. And he’s a wonderful young man and we really like him. But just to be honest with him, to say that we don’t know you and the capacity of how you handle your money, how do you steward your time? How are you behind the closed doors with your wife? How are you whenever you are with your. And that sounds like you’re getting too personal, but those are the things that drive how people really will show up whenever pressures happen. And what we were doing previously, like John said, was we were doing it off of what we thought their capacity was or we were doing it all our belief or our hope for them. And that’s a lot of weight for someone else to carry, you know, whenever they think, you know, I believe in you so much. So now you have to run and succeed and they’ll give it all they have, but they only have so much of that. And so John and I spent a lot of time doing due diligence where the people that we’re working to invest in, whether it’s our time or our money resources, because both of those are very obviously very valuable. One of them can be reproduced and one of them cannot. So, you know, to us, our comm is the most valuable thing that we can give to someone. So what do you have to say about that?
John Marsh: Well, two or three things. One thing I’d say is people don’t see the world as it is. They see it as they are. And so we get like give you an example. We build restaurants now sometimes in service of growing downtown’s hospitality businesses. And we’d have a fine dining chef come to us to say, and this happened to us, cost us a bunch of money. So it was a good one. He came to us, said, I’d like to just open a simple hotdog place. Well, next thing you know, we got $12 hot dogs because he’s gourmet in. I’m up. No matter what somebody tells you, they’re going to be who they are, not what they want. And so if you got a fine dining guide, don’t think you’re going to get them a hot dog because that thing will go gourmet. He’ll be toast on both sides of the bun and putting all kind of special sauce on it. And so we realized we got to ask ourselves, who are they and their identity, because identity drives behavior. The second thing with that is doing this personality test, you want to ask yourself, are they a future voice or a present voice? Do they stand in the present and go, okay, tell me what is or do they stand in the future and go Tell me what could be? Because the stand in the future kind of people say and tell me what could be like me. We’re highly excitable and sometimes I think we’re guilty of being high energy. Low IQ was a powerful combination. I mean, you give some stuff started, but like Ash one time she gave me a representation because she would be running all the money and back in before she took over all the companies a number of years ago, which made me feel a little bad because she’s done such a good job and made me look like I was less intelligent than I even think I was. But so anyway, we’re standing at the dryer and she says, Hey baby. And I’m talking. Waved my hands. Oh, baby, did what I won’t do. I won’t do this. She’d hand me a box, had me something else had me. This reason my arms are slam full. And I said, What do you want me to do with all this stuff? She says, That’s what you do to me. And so I would just keep piling stuff on, starting stuff, getting excitable. About the time, something new, the honeymoon went out of it. I jump out and hand it over to her. Now this thing, I’ve got it going. And somebody needs to make this like a trade journal down. And so we run now off a EOS type of system that we’ve adapted for our marriage. And for our business, which we call visionary integrator, the same way they do, we believe we need a Wall and a Roy Disney and everything we’re building. And if we’re going to invest in and we’ve got to have somebody who’s going to make the trains run on time and somebody who’s going to get excited and stir stuff up.
John Coleman: Well, talk to me. So one of the things you all touched on that I love so much is you’ve talked so much about the importance of the individual person that you’re investing in. And I think Luke and I see this across asset classes right now. You think entrepreneurs or owner operators or others, the person is what you’re evaluating almost first before you look at anything else. But there is a lot of complexity to the type of real estate investing that you all are doing, particularly as you’ve approach to rejuvenating whole towns like Opelika. You’ve really taken a lot of ownership. Talk to us about the mission of the real estate investing that you have now and things like community revitalization and how that intersects with good business principles for the types of investments that you choose.
John Marsh: Well, one thing we say is we call the work we do now, we’ve coined it irreplaceable real estate. The reason we say is irreplaceable is it’s been built by people who don’t live anymore with materials we don’t have anymore and methods we don’t do anymore with entitlements we can’t get approved anymore. So that makes it special. And then when you layer Ash’s gift of hospitality, which is her gift, and that definition is I thought of you before you got here. She said, that’s what God did to her and does to us. We layered that and great programing over it. We get something that’s quite incredible. And so our main focus now is helping. Now ten cities steward large amount of real estate where over 1,000,000,007 in depth in the portfolio size that we’re in. We’re helping them steward to make economic, social and spiritual capital. And we want it to make all three. I mean, that’s the story of the Good Samaritan is economic, social and spiritual capital. But people think the money is the problem and we believe the money for us has never been the problem. Money follows vision. Vision doesn’t follow money. You don’t get money. And then the vision come clear. You get a good vision, a clear plan. And so first thing we do is have models, okay? We model everything. Our business approach should look any private equity, any other real estate investor ought to appreciate and see sophisticated real estate development approach to it. Now we do it in a multidisciplinary way. We look from the very top and from the very bottom. We look from the investors point all the way through the deals, through construction, development, all these things. But we also go to the operators point. And so some of the questions we say is not just how much can we make in rent or our return, but how much should we make, and then how can we align above that? So if we’re starting a restaurant, we’ll say, let’s give them the best ramp we can. We’ll go in, maybe invest in the business, in the leader, and then we’ll also have the real estate and we’ll give them the best rate we can to get a break even. But then we ratchet up more percentage based rents as they succeed. Because they’re succeeding, we want to. And remember, in the restaurant business, the first millions got a little bit of money in. Second got more, thirds got more. It’s exponential because the hard costs don’t go up so much. And so it’s bringing sophisticated filters and alignment to that whole value chain. That’s the way we believe from every bit like some cities, our largest city, Winter Haven, Florida, they bought up a good bit of 80 blocks of downtown. It’s close to a $200 million portfolio and 100 million of that, or close, was raised from 60 locals. So it’s a community development fund with some very unique characteristics of getting liquidity when they need it of ownership and care in a city you’re in of a distribution model that makes sense. I mean, these are the powerful alignment tools of placemaking that we think allow us to forge and pioneer what we’re calling a new asset class of real estate, which is irreplaceable real estate, historic downtowns, lovingly restored and curated in a sophisticated way.
Luke Roush: So one of the things I’ve heard you speak about before is this idea of starting lines, finish lines and deadlines. How do you kind of overlay those constructs in with this idea of irreplaceable real estate?
John Marsh: So, Ash, I’ll let you maybe you want to tell a little bit about like how we work with these projects from hospitality and other things, how we layer that in to doing deals like say, for example, we did pass social or something like that. How did you in time that team of hospitality focus on that?
Ashley Marsh: So what I believe we do really well is we help people remember their story and they end to understand that what they’re selling is the experience, not the business. It’s really easy, I believe, for creatives to think that they just have a great idea and they have a plan with that idea, but they don’t really understand the execution of it. And it’s a daily execution of beauty, of experience, of knowledge and execution. And so our team comes in and actually make sure that they understand their story, understand who they are, and. That story and understand how to actually bring the client or the customer into their role in the story. You know, that’s one of the things we do. The other things I think that we do really well, and that is making sure that we hold the proper attention on the vision and don’t let them get astray on it. Because as we all know, because we are entrepreneurs, it’s really easy, especially if you’re married to an excitable entrepreneur. It’s very easy to get distracted with shiny things and new things and, you know, new opportunities or new ideas. And we’ll pivot and change and pivot change. That’s very expensive and it takes a lot of time and it gets you off all those deadlines. So, you know, making sure that you have people on your team that are working with you, like John said, that you got to have that visionary that’s out there doing those things and helping you hold that vision, that helping you also dream big. And then to have the other person or people that are there to keep things in order and check in on the timeline and making sure that the construction happened the way it needs to happen and so forth. So that’s how we I think we work well with making sure we have those timelines and deadlines and making sure we meet those and honoring the vision.
John Marsh: We say we’re like general contractors for vision, but what we do is we created we took a scrum method from software development, the Agile process, and we adapted it for project and city and community development. And so we run two weeks sprints with teams, we have a backlog, we have an upcoming sprint, we have a current sprint, we have a refined sprint, we have a done sprint, and we run two week intervals with that with the week in between, being an agile meeting between one of our team leaders and their team leader. And so it’s holding the tension on the 20% of the things that if they don’t, our special attention will never get done. And what we do is we draw lines in the sand because everybody works better. If you got a deadline, we have to get to something. So we’ll set a launch for a restaurant, we’ll set a log for hotel. We tell them to listen. Now you can wait until the end and work 24 hours a day. People going to sit and in wet paint. But we’re open and we don’t care. We are where we ahead. We’re going to do it. And we’ve always worked good. We don’t do projects without a deadline because one thing about making a plan and making a deadline is not just what it does, it’s what it does to you. It makes something of you to set a deadline. And so we do that with them and we make sure we line up the economics to it to where they get it incentivized, excited about it. Everybody on the project should be excited about hitting that deadline. And we don’t we don’t miss deadlines. It’s just not what we do. We tell them, come hell or high water, we’re going in 24 hours. If we get close, we ain’t going to make it. So we get real, but we don’t fix pricing, guaranteed time frames, construction for all these years. And if you didn’t do well, you wouldn’t been in business very long.
Luke Roush: So that’s I think that’s powerful. You know, it speaks a little bit to the whole salt and light thing. If all you are is light, but there’s no salt and then, yeah, every project ends up slipping past. So you got to be able to have both. And from my observer’s perch, seems like you guys dance on that line. Really, really. Well, one of the things I want to come back to is this idea of irreplaceable real estate. And, you know, just as investors kind of marketers, we always think about kind of market size. I’d love to hear y’all riff just for a couple of minutes on the market size for small towns in America that need to have life breathed back into them and both TLC, but also some accountability and redevelopment. Maybe just speak to how big is that opportunity? It certainly is bigger than the two of you can do that maybe for our listeners or other people who are out there in the real estate arena that might be thinking about trying to infuse more meaning in what they do day to day, maybe just share a little bit of how big are we talking about?
John Marsh: And that’s a good question. I mean, I just know it’s it’s so big that it breaks my guessing machine like when I think as far out as I could take, I go, oh my gosh, it’s bigger. I tell Ash, I feel like as a baby, even a blind dog, go find the bone. We have landed on something that is amazing. I get so darn excited about it. And it’s because, I mean, we’re already stewarding the type of portfolios we talked about and we’re just getting started. So, I mean, it’s billions and billions and billions of dollars and the greenest houses that exist are ones that already exist, not ones we’ll build. And the most attainable houses that exist are the ones we don’t have to build. They exist. And the most amazing materials that were trees that from the time that Adam was here till we cut them exist, hidden up in these historic structures. I mean, think about today, they want to make and say that a sheet rock box would drive it on. It is worth the same thing as my 100 year old building with a two foot thick masonry wall. That’s beautiful. I mean, that’s dumb. That’s some banker said that the dadgum amortization term determines value. Well, that’s only if you’re looking out 20 years. We’re looking 50 or a hundred. We’re asking ourselves, what can we do for the good of our city that would last 50 years and no one be able to undo it? So I’m dreaming. I was talking to a guy recently, two guys I’ve had called me in the last six months that said, John, we’d like to deploy a half a billion dollars in the things that you’re doing this type of work from families that were out of the country, one in Hong Kong, another one Brazil. And then we will deploy it for 50 years. And so I believe that what we’re talking about, the cost of redeployment of capital and the velocity of capital is so powerful if you can do it over generations and understanding that, gosh, what we have is irreplaceable, they’re not building another downtown Opelika or any other small town. And you just think how many small towns we drive through that sit there with embedded value that people don’t know how to do anything with. And you know, if you ask them, they say, Can we do something with it? It’s impossible. And so our job is to take people from impossible to possible, but probable. We’ve proven this model can be done in towns as small as 3000. So, yes, it’s everywhere. I mean, everywhere we go, I’m tripping breakers are told, Ash we gotta buy this place. Like you say, that everywhere we go. I just think it’s amazing. So our goal now we started doing this, didn’t know what to charge, but we had godly people. We did it for fees, then we started doing it fees and we did some equity. So we’re they’re partners. The third iteration of this is fees, equity, and we bring capital. That’s what we’re doing now a lot of times. And so I think the fourth iteration will be imagine if there was a sophisticated design instrument, a fund that could bring shared services to this type of work, could restore cities, and could give people like Ash and I and others a way to have liquidity at some point for generations to put it in there, a stewardship vehicle that could look out 50, 75 and a hundred years like we do for our portfolio. We’re over 275 properties we’ve done in our city. We still own over 200 and we’ve never taken outside capital. We put our butts on the line personally, guaranteed it all the way through. And so imagine what we could do with a little bit of a little bit of additional horsepower.
John Coleman: Amen, man, I’m like ready to open my wallet and move to Opelika after that.
Ashley Marsh: You should it is the center of the universe. So, I mean, you’d be in a great place.
John Coleman: That’s right. That’s right. Well, we’re going to pivot to a very fun topic, I think, Luke, we almost have to employ a lightning round here. It would be a violation of our fiduciary duty not to. But just very briefly, before we do that, talk about Faith again. Ash talked about it at the beginning. Obviously, you’re casting a vision for community here, but on a day to day basis, how does faith influence your investment strategy? To tie that together for us.
John Marsh: Two things. I’ll say actually and give it to you. One is unity and others peace. If Ash and I are not in unity, we don’t move because the place of unity is the place of command and blessings. We want unity between each other, unity with the spirit we get on our knees and ask God. And then with also we want the multitude of godly counselors. There’s wisdom. But then that second thing is peace. We believe the place of peace is a place of power. And so we look for people of peace and places of peace, and we want to operate in projects that have peace around them. And so if those two aren’t there, we don’t go forward.
Ashley Marsh: So I totally agree with John, but also the fact of Paul’s being sensitive to when the spirit says, hey, pay attention and pause for a minute. We actually had one of our mentors give us a question yesterday that he just like I just I would like to throw this question to you for you to consider. For you and Ash to talk about and consider. And whenever John brought it to me, instead of, you know, blowing up and thinking, but we’ve already decided we know God is going to bless him. We already […]. It’s like you have to pause a minute and say, Hey, wait a minute. You know, this is an opportunity for us to again hear really the direction God wants us to go and to remember that he is the one that directs our path, you know? And so it’s like allow that allow that movement to happen and to be adjusted. And that sensitivity brings the greatest peace into our home, I believe, and into our businesses and everything, because we will absolutely slam on the brakes if God tells us to stop right in the middle of the road and don’t care if we get creamed. It’s just like it is what it is and all of the other things of unity. John and I had such a broken marriage and so many broken parts in our business very early on that when we found the unity and the peace that God gave us, we refused to move from it. And so staying unified and trusting God, honoring one another, honoring the gifts of each other that keeps us in that place of unity. We can be effective there.
John Coleman: That’s awesome, y’all. So we are going to conclude before asking you for a good scripture reference at the end with a short lightning round. The rules are Luke and I will pose a question and then we’d love to get 15 seconds responses from y’all. So short and sweet. I’ll kick us off and then pitch it over to Luke. Best and worst investment you’ve made.
John Marsh: Best investments buying up a downtown when nobody wanted it. The worst investment we made, we allowed somebody to sell a restaurant to a new operator and learn to find out that the guy who can fly a 747 can’t necessarily build one. That cost us a couple million bucks.
Luke Roush: I got one for Ash and then my turn around and John get an opportunity as well. Ash, what’s your favorite saying that John uses and you can’t use the mosquito in a […] Because that’s my favorite. That one’s off limits. But anything else is fair game.
Ashley Marsh: Oh, my gosh. Okay, so we actually have a thing called John isms and it’s an actual language. And I don’t know if you ever used to watch VeggieTales, but I used to tell him all the time, you know, you can’t correct the language of the king is what the little cucumber said. Anyhow, I would say dumb as a sack of hammers is one that’s a really good one. Doesn’t translate well in other countries, by the way. They don’t know what to do with that. What do you say? Let’s see another way. Because he uses my speech in the nudist colony a lot. I’ll have to go back on the second one. Dumb. Yeah.
John Marsh: I’m saving that.
John Coleman: One. I’m saving that one.
John Marsh: One of mine is the goal is to disappoint you at a rate you’ll stand. And we’re on a journey that looks like a detour.
Ashley Marsh: Oh, I’ve got a word. He uses two words that he uses that are so interesting to me. He says a goalds with a D and insteaed of goals, and he says “miracle” instead of miracle. I don’t know if that’s a Southern twang ism or a that’s just his words.
John Marsh: Well, in the goal of our companies is front row seats to miracles.
John Coleman: That’s awesome.
John Marsh: You know, we say, God, we want front row seats to miracles. 50 yard line seats, God, they got to be our miracles. But we want to close. We want to see that. And I guess the other thing is that, you know, as you think about this, I say marriage is complicated. It’s more complicated than your transmission. And I used to think it was just about sex and supper, but there’s a lot more to it. Oh.
John Coleman: I feel like The Lightning Round actually just led itself to a conclusion there. Luke, we got a lot of good aphorisms and we love to conclude this podcast just by asking each of you, if you don’t mind, for a piece of scripture that’s really influencing you right now that you’re learning from just to take us home. So John and Ash, anything that you’re reading in the Bible right now, it’s really changing the way that you see things so that you’d like to share.
John Marsh: I can start, I guess, well, it’s this Galatians 2:20. You know, the idea that we are crucified with Christ and not I live, but Christ lives in me on further study that word is co crucified. Not only are we co crucified, we’re co resurrected. And so something happened a very long time ago, this very significant today that we’ve been co resurrected. We don’t get eternal life once we know when we have it. I’m riding in the dark suit, but all the power that raised Christ from the dead inside this crazy person and that just blows my socks off. You know, the fact that God loves idiots and he’s got a plan, and if I’ve got hope for my future, I got power in my present.
John Coleman: Wow that’s powerful. What? Speaking to you Ash?
Ashley Marsh: Well my scripture that I always hold on to and I come back to is Jeremiah 29:11, which is I know the plans I have for you, but the actually what I love is in Jeremiah 13 reads on his life plans to prosper you not harm you. And he goes into saying The very place that I’ve caused you to be driven and held captive is the place I’ll deliver you from and. There was a time in mine and John’s life where we tried to escape Opelika. I mean, hard. We tried so hard to get out of here. I mean, we felt like this is not where we were supposed to be after we reconciled our marriage, after we crashed businesses, all the things that were happening. And God brought us back here to use us as a seed and to be used so beautifully. And so that is my scripture. And it I keep it in my mind and my prayers every day is that he’s the one that knows the plans and he’s the one that caused us to be here. And it’s such a blessing to be here.
John Coleman: Wow. That’s powerful, y’all. Well, I’ll tell you, doing a podcast with y’all is like being a mosquito in a nudist colony. That was a lot of fun. I think we could talk to y’all forever. And I know we’re really grateful both for the work y’all are doing out there with these irreplaceable communities, the way in which you’re lifting up individuals within those communities, and also just for sharing that wisdom with us and with the community here. So thanks so much. It was great to have you on.
Ashley Marsh: Thank you.
Luke Roush: Appreciate all you.
John Marsh: Thank you guys.
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Once a month, we take a look back at what God is doing in the world of Faith Driven Investing and the global markets. We also spend time looking at current trends and outlooks with great interest and discernment in hopes to identify God’s redemptive work in the world. Bob Doll, Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global, and David Spika, who leads the GuideStone Investments Line of Business, have both served as guests and contributors to media outlets such as CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Moneywise, and Fox Business News. They join us for a look at market activity from July 2022. This is Marks on the Markets.
All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization.
Episode Transcript
Transcription is done by an AI software. While technology is an incredible tool to automate this process, there will be misspellings and typos that might accompany it. Please keep that in mind as you work through it.
John Coleman: Welcome to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is our monthly Mark’s on the Market podcast, where we hear from experts around the world who are leading faith driven investment firms, who are people of faith and who are intimately familiar with the operations of markets, and can help us to understand what’s going on day to day in the financial markets around the world. Today, we’re really privileged to welcome two legends in the space. David Spika is the CEO of GuideStone, the largest faith driven investment mutual fund manager in the world. And Bob Dole is the CEO of Cross Smart Global Investments. Faith Aligned Institutional Investor. And both of these gentlemen also have long and storied careers in the investment industry. Hopefully most of you have heard from them before and they offer a great perspective on markets. And we’re just so pleased to have the two of you with us today. So thank you, Bob and David, for joining.
David Spika: Happy to be here.
John Coleman: So we’re going to kick off. It’s been a busy week. It’s been a busy month and it’s been a very active month in financial markets. To start off, Bob, I wanted to talk to you. We actually just had the GDP numbers come out today as we’re recording. And the question I have for you is, are we in recession? Which used to be a simpler question maybe to ask. But we’ve heard recently from Janet Yellen in the White House that maybe two negative quarters of GDP wasn’t actually a recession. So in this context, how are you thinking about recession and are we in a recession right now?
Bob Dole: You make a great point. That is, we’re not sure about the future, but we’re going to argue about the past. I think the headlines have just started. Many will say two down quarters in a row. Well, that’s a recession. Other people say not so fast. The truth is, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares when we have a recession, typically months after the fact. So there is nothing magic about two down quarters. Although I went back in my history books and found out the last time we had two back to back down quarters and there was no recession was 1947. So it’s been a long time. So typically when you get a couple of down quarters, you know, somewhere in that zone there’s a recession. So my view is that the weakness we saw in first and second quarter were the most volatile parts of GDP. First quarter it was trade, second quarter it was inventories. And the more traditional, possibly more stable parts of GDP were okay down in the first quarter from the record. GDP we saw last year is strongest since 1984 and of course even slower in the second quarter. My guess is forget the numbers and recession or not, we will continue to slow. That was in place already after the strong year last year, aggravated now by inflation, interest rates and attempts to quell growth, if you will. Let me add one more point. The reason I think we may escape a recession or if we have it, is just going to be short and shallow is the strength of the things that make up our economy, the US consumer not perfect and weakening for sure, but still has lots of excess savings on the balance sheet as a result of COVID either money not spent or money nailed by the government. Secondly, the corporate sector. Cash. Cash flow. Balance sheet strength. All pretty good. Not uniform, but pretty good. Profit margins are still high, albeit under a little bit of pressure. And then most importantly, the job market, we still have twice as many job openings as we have people looking for jobs. That’s a very strong job market. We’ve never had a recession in the US before with a strong job market. Now it’s beginning to weaken. We’ll see where it goes from here. So weakening for sure. Recession. You tell me what the definition is.
David Spika: Can I? If I could jump in. I think we’re asking the wrong question. I don’t think the question is, are we in recession or not? I think the question is how are consumers faring? Consumer spending is 70% of our GDP and consumers are hurting today. No question about it. Just look at Wal-Mart’s results from this week. That really is the key. And if we’re not in recession today, we fully believe we will be, because the Fed is going to have to continue to be very aggressive in raising rates and letting the balance sheet run off in order to bring inflation down. We’ve never seen inflation come down meaningfully without a recession, and we’ve never seen inflation come down meaningfully if we didn’t have a real positive Fed funds rate. And we’ve got a long way to go before we get there.
John Coleman: I want to circle back to the inflation question, but before we dig there, assuming we are entering, Bob, as you said, a slow down or David, as you said, there’s a recession on the horizon. How are the two of you thinking about which economic sectors or asset classes are likely to perform well in that type of environment? And how are you thinking about those that you’re trying to avoid as we enter those two potential situations?
David Spika: I think it is becoming a good opportunity to buy bonds, particularly high quality bonds and treasuries. Obviously, the first half of the year was absolutely horrible for bonds, one of the worst periods you ever seen for the Barclays AG. But with rates where they are and starting to go lower, they will continue to go lower as we move into recession. We’re going to have credit spreads widen. But if you own high quality bonds and if you own treasuries, you should be okay. We’re also going to see at some point an opportunity to see risk in the equity market. We don’t think that time is here yet, but at some point we don’t get these times very often. Very rarely do we get a chance to buy stocks 20, 30, 40% down. We’re going to have a chance to do that. But today, bonds and even cash, cash is yielding better than two and a half percent. What the heck? Let’s put some money in cash. Let’s increase our cash holdings, have some dry powder. So when that opportunity to re-risk comes, we’ll be ready. And on the bad side, I would be very leery of non-U.S. exposure, particularly risk exposure, whether that’s emerging market debt or equities, because the dollar’s likely to continue to remain high. That’s the flight to safety that we see in a volatile environment. And as long as the dollar remains high, you probably want to stick with U.S. assets. And the other thing I would be a little leery of is commodities. Obviously, energy has been great, but commodities are very economically sensitive. We’re seeing oil prices come down. Copper is down about 25% from its high. We need to be leery of those as long as we believe we’re going into a recession.
John Coleman: Bob. Anything you’d add to that?
Bob Dole: Yeah, largely in agreement. I’ll go in the same order. And our fixed income funds, we have length and duration. We’re still below our benchmark, having been way below our benchmark at the start of the year. So while we’re down for our clients, we’re down not nearly as much as the benchmarks. We think, as it sounds like David does that. At worst, we’re in a trading range for, let’s say, the ten year yield. It’s 280 ish as we speak. Could we move down that to 70 to 60? Sure. Could we move back to three? Possible. But the threat, the big negative sign in front of the bond mark is probably removed as the economy slows and we see less bad news on inflation, on equities. You know, the question is, was June 16 the low? It is the fifth close trading where we got a big bounce afterwards since the bear market started. I think we saw off that bottom the best news so far. But I still think we’ve not seen the capitulation that is typically as a bear market. I’m talking about, you know, volatility up the VIX over 40. A big explosion in put to call volume. We’ve not seen that a pick up in volume generally kind of, if I might, puking it out. We just haven’t seen that yet. So we probably have a lower low, but we are opportunistically and only on weakness beginning to accumulate some stocks, commodities. I agree. They had a huge run. Oil’s down. Copper is down for among the reasons we think inflation’s going to get less bad, if you will. And I guess maybe the only area I might put up a little difference is international. International stocks beat the U.S. by 300 basis points in the first half of the year. Very surprising to a lot of people. Despite the dollar’s strength, we expect there might be more of that to come. Non-U.S. markets are a whole lot cheaper than the U.S., although value never gives you a timing tool. And if the economy is weak, this flight to safety and the more defensive nature of the U.S. market could help us do better. So I think the jury’s out on that one. My guess is there’ll be some good stocks in both geographies and some bad ones in both, too.
John Coleman: And maybe before we move on just to zero in those, have you mentioned that there might be further room to the downside in U.S. equity markets? I think, David, you said you’re not ready to kind of start buying aggressively yet. Bob, you said something similar. I believe on our side we’ve been thinking the same thing. We’ve seen a lot of multiple compression back to more historical averages, but haven’t seen the weaknesses in earnings materialize, which could provide further downside if you have thoughts on it. We’d love to know. Maybe starting with you, David, just how much further are you looking for stocks to decline before you think it’s a buying opportunity? Is it 5% or 10% or more? And what would be your sign that we might be hitting the bottom of that trough and that it might be an opportunity to begin getting in more aggressively?
David Spika: Great question and several ways to look at that. We’re trading at about 18 times forward earnings today. Markets have historically bottomed at 11 times. Do I think we’re getting to 11? I sure hope not, because that’s a long way from here. But you hit it on the head. We haven’t seen earnings degradation yet. And if we’re going into recession, earnings are going to come down. So we need to start seeing earnings estimates go lower. Historically, in a recession, earnings fall by 30%. That will be the next leg down and that will create additional multiple compression. That 18 times is still not where we should be if we’re going into recession. So those two combined are likely to take us down further. The average decline for a bear market when going into a recession is 36%. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see us broach that 30% level. We’re down about 14 or 15 now. We did hit the 20 mark, so 30% would not surprise me in terms of when the bottom is in. As Bob referenced, there are certain signs, technical signs, 90% of the market trading above its 50 day moving average is one of those. But one of the things that we think will be a pretty clear signal is when the Fed has ceased raising rates. Now we’re not on board with the Fed cutting rates in the first quarter of 23, but if the Fed’s pausing, that means we’re likely at an inflation level that is somewhat palatable and the market will respond well to that. Now, that doesn’t mean we’re back off to the races, but it does mean that major headwind, which is rising interest rates, tightening financial conditions, is probably in the rearview mirror.
John Coleman: That’s excellent.
Bob Dole: Again, not a whole lot of agreement, maybe a little less bearish than that. I give it one in four, one in three that the June 16th low was the low. So the majority case by far is it wasn’t. And I have said that absent a significant recession, the risk is probably a 5% move below where we were then and we’re up ten since then. So that’s 15% from here. Kind of what we’re down from the high not too far from that. We’ve narrowed that gap. So I was saying the lion’s share of the bear market from a price standpoint is in the rearview mirror with this nice rally we’ve seen. Perhaps not now if we’re going to have a more significant recession with imbalances that we don’t see today, it could either be worse and or last longer. And I agree with David with those technical signs. Fundamentally, we’d like to see that we’ve had a peak in long term interest rates. Perhaps that’s in we’d like to see the end of earnings estimate cuts. We’re not there yet. We’ve only started. And I’d say the Fed thinks slightly differently, visibility on when the end of Fed tightening is likely, and I don’t think we’re anywhere near that yet.
John Coleman: I want to pick back up now on the topic of inflation. We’ve talked about it throughout here and obviously it’s high on people’s minds. There was recently a stop inflation bill. I think it’s come out in Congress, for example, or titled that, you know, as we think about this, inflation is obviously a policy issue as well as an economic issue. And I’m wondering if you could talk about what you’re looking to see from the Federal Reserve as well as from the US government as we seek to tame inflation and how you see that inflationary environment developing now. And perhaps, Bob, if you don’t mind, we could start with you.
Bob Dole: Sure. Be happy to. So, first of all, a little bit history. Put it in context. It seems like inflation was a topic we didn’t talk about forever because inflation was two or lower for years. And then all of a sudden, you know, we wake up and inflation’s, you know, eight, nine, approaching 10% because remember, inflation is transitory. That’s a joke, obviously. And we move on from there. Look, we have said since the first of the year, we think second quarter will register the peak in inflation. And I think that’s the case. Obviously, a couple of weeks ago, we got that June inflation number that was just so devastating after the negative surprise in the month before. So, you know, we’re at some levels that are reasonably high reasons. We think that we’re likely to have lower inflation in the next bunch of months. One, the slow down the economy. Two, as both of us have already commented, declining commodity prices, oil from peak to trough down more than $25, copper down 25%. Dr. Copper tells us a lot about both the economy and inflation. And then three, the supply chain problems. I’m not making the case for solving them, but I think they’re a little less severe and will be as we go forward than where we’ve been. All that takes the inflation rate down some. My guess and that’s all these things your hope, their educated guesses is by the end of the year, we’ll be registering monthly inflation numbers that annualized around four or 5%, down from your 8 to 10 where we speak. And that’s a problem because the Fed says they want too I think they’ll compromise at some point at three, but 4 to 5 is not two or three, which means there’s more work to do. And I think that could create problems for stocks and bonds somewhere down the line. Maybe not until next year.
David Spika: Yeah, I would agree with Bob that we’ve probably seen the peak a sure hope we don’t go above 9.1%, but I’m not quite as optimistic on the decline. You have to consider what the Fed is able to do to mitigate inflation. They have no control over the supply chain issue. The only thing they can have an impact on is demand, and they’ve got to take the consumer out at the knees. How do they do that? By reducing consumer wealth. We’ve already seen that financial assets, housing next and they have to reduce consumer incomes. We’ve got 3.6% unemployment today. Consumer real incomes are not good, but obviously nominal income is very good. Second quarter nominal GDP was over 9%. That’s too high. So the Fed is going to have to continue to raise rates until we start to see some weakness in the job market to really have an impact on consumer demand to materially bring down inflation. And we think that’s going to take a while. We think that could be another 12 months. The belief that the Fed is going to be cutting rates in the first quarter of next year, which is really why the market was up yesterday. And today they perceived Powell’s comments as dovish, which I don’t get. We just don’t think that’s likely at all. And if inflation’s running at four or five, as Bob says, if it’s running at six or seven, regardless, the Fed’s not cutting rates there. They may pause, but they’re not going to be cutting rates. And as long as they’re not raising rates, they’re not doing the damage to consumer spending and consumer incomes that they need to do in order to bring inflation down. So to us, it’s a longer cycle that we’re facing.
John Coleman: Just to pick up on a couple of those themes, because you touched on really interesting things there. One is just very simply, where do you see interest rates going over the next 12 to 18 months? Obviously, the Fed funds rate, but also how those filter out into the economy. What’s your outlook for the interest rate environment over the course of the next year, year and a half? And maybe, Bob, if you don’t mind, we’ll start with you.
Bob Dole: Sure. So let’s start with the Fed press conference yesterday. Chairman Powell, you know, if you read between his lines, he’s basically suggesting there’s 100 basis points to go. They have the luxury of no meeting for a couple of months here. And, you know, 100 basis points probably means 115 and 225. Reading between the lines, what David said, I think both of us believe that’s not the end. That’s just not going to do the trick. So I suspect the market reacting to all that positively yesterday and today probably get smacked across the face again at some point when people realize that’s just not going to do the trick. So I think the Fed’s got more to go. It’s going to take longer. I didn’t say it when I comment on inflation. I should have. David said it. Well, you know, the Fed has little control over inflation because they only can influence the demand side. That’s why the commodity price thing the of solving some of the supply chain problems is so key. If inflation is going to come down regardless almost of what the Fed does out the curve, I think that for now interest rates have found a level we got to that 349 intraday. A few weeks ago. I don’t think we’ll see that level any time real soon. But if I’m right, 4 to 5% end of the year, if David thinks six or seven, even more about what I’m going to say will come true, interest rates will head back up. It’s just not enough to have these big negative real rates in order to have an impact. David said this earlier Getting real rates to be positive is almost always required to tame the inflation. So I would expect they will have out the curve higher rates again starting, you know, months from now, but enough to be painful.
John Coleman: So, David, as you pick up on that question, I’ll raise a potentially frightening question, which is, you know, in some ways, this economic era looks a lot like the late 1970s, right, in terms of the rapid inflation, in terms of action in commodity markets, etc.. I know there are differences, but at that time, interest rates climbed to a truly phenomenal level. I think at some point we’re at 20% or something like that in the late seventies, early eighties. Do you see any risk of that type of interest rate movement? And if not, what do you think moderates this era versus that one?
David Spika: Yeah, I was in high school then, so fortunately I didn’t feel it as much as maybe my parents did. But my first mortgage was nine and a half percent and I recall being lucky that I got that. But in any event, I don’t think we get to that point. The economy, the global economy is much different today than it was then. The Arab oil embargo was a big component there. We weren’t producing the energy we produce today. We didn’t have the global trade then that we have today. And the Fed was, I think once Volcker took control, he really had to work hard because they were so far behind the curve. Now, this Fed’s behind the curve, too, but I don’t feel like it’s the same situation. All that said, one of the things that does concern me and I mentioned globalization, one of the things that is a likely byproduct of the war in Ukraine is the fact that countries around the world, economies around the world don’t want to be dependent on other nations for their needs, for their products, services. Look what’s happening in Germany right now. They’re in a world of hurt, given what the Russians are doing with regard to natural gas distribution. And so that reduction of outsourcing that becomes on sourcing, right? In-Sourcing producing more goods at home is going to create some structural inflation that we’re not used to. Now, that doesn’t mean we get double digit rates. I think the economy would react much more quickly today than it did then to a significant rate hikes. And again, we’re starting from much lower level today than we were there. I can’t remember where we started then, but we weren’t at zero. So on an absolute basis it’s not going to have to go as high. But there are some similarities between then and now that do give me a little pause. And it’s that globalization feature that has been a real positive for inflation over the past 20 years. That may be coming to somewhat of an end at this point.
Bob Dole: Yeah, the three reasons in my view that we had such low inflation for so long were technology, demographics and the issue of globalization. Globalization, as David has said, is disappearing. The nationalism around the world and lots of politics is causing that not to be the negative inflation pro growth thing it was before population. The all the developed world has dangerously low population growth, some places negative. And of course, a technology piece I think is alive and well. So that is among the reasons I agree with David that we’re not going to those crazy inflation rates that we saw before. This is a phenomenon that is painful now, but we should get it under some control. Doesn’t say we’re going back to 1% inflation, but I think we with a lot of work, probably a recession, we can get this thing back to three ish.
John Coleman: David and Bob, you’ve both touched on international markets. I think, Bob, you started by talking about some of the opportunities in international markets over the course of the year so far. And David, you touched on this idea of global supply chains, etc., in your recent comments. Obviously, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a really negative shock to the global economy. China’s decision to pursue a zero-covid policy has been a negative shock to some extent, continuing to constrain supply chains. Just quick thoughts on what are the risk factors that you see now in the global economy that might impact investors here in the United States or around the world? And. Where do you think there might be opportunity in the global economy right now? And David, maybe you could start us off.
David Spika: Yeah. What’s going on in China is very curious and very alarming. The Zero-Covid policy, we’re hoping this is something that Xi is going to suspend once he’s reelected as lifetime ruler. But it just doesn’t make any sense for a country of a billion and a half people to expect a zero-covid. And that has that been a huge factor. You know, it’s funny. COVID was a black swan and it has spawned other black swans. Right. It’s born this runaway inflation. It’s spawned, I would say, to a degree, the war in Ukraine. It spawned what’s happening in China today. And so it’s almost like this continuous black swan. But to me, what’s happening in China is the biggest concern. China is the second largest economy in the world. They’re a huge factor in the global supply chain, a huge factor in production of goods and services. And to the extent they cannot get back to a level of production that is appropriate for the rest of the world, that could create some headwinds. The other thing to recognize when it comes to Russia. If Putin were to walk out of Ukraine tomorrow, the world not going to say all is forgiven. We’re going to start doing business with you again. He’s a pariah. As long as he’s in office, which is probably going to be an extended period of time. So those two things, which are a couple of the black swans that occurred this year, I think are going to continue to be headwinds to the global supply chain.
Bob Dole: I agree 100% with everything David just said. I’ll add just one point to it. That is a continued risk and that is a supply of energy. You know, I think one of the events I’ll call in an event that has not gotten enough attention is the curtailment of supply in the country that has the most opportunity to create incremental energy. And that’s the United States. If you go back to January of 2021, we were coming out of covid, the demand for oil was rising quickly. And in this country, we canceled the Keystone pipeline. We put a moratorium in many ways on new drilling and made it difficult on the permit side. So economics one on one demand for something. In this case, oil is going up. Supply has been curtailed. What happens to price? Definitionally, it goes up and we’re still struggling with just not enough of this stuff. As the global economy recovers, post whatever recession we’re going to be in. So that remains a risk, in my judgment.
John Coleman: And Bob, just to pick up on that briefly, you know, energy markets have been highly volatile recently. And to your comments, some of that is based on policy decisions. If you have a magic wand right now and could try and convince the federal government to enact policies that you felt like would restore a semblance of normalcy to the energy markets, what would you advise the current presidential administration or Congress to do in order to support energy markets?
Bob Dole: I’ll try not to be political in my answer, but, you know, I think, look, if I were the president and I believe big time in the environment and green this and green that, I think I would say, hey, folks, I believe in green just like you do. But can you give me a couple of years where I can address the problems we have right now, in particular inflation? And just I’ll put it this way, open up the spigots for a while and let’s let the supply try to meet the demand, bring the price down, and a lot of our inflation problem eases up. Not all of it, but a lot of it does. And then we can worry about the green stuff later. That’s why I would advise the administration.
David Spika: The only issue I have with that, Bob, I agree, but the only issue I have is if I’m an oil and gas producer and if I think it’s a two year window, I’m not committing billions of dollars of CapEx into development. Heck no. I produce tremendous cash flow today. My shareholders love me and I’m sitting right where I am today. I love $100 oil, so we need, quite frankly, a change in tone on the energy industry as a whole in the United States. We support you and we are going to we are going to provide what you need to be successful.
Bob Dole: You went one step beyond me. I’ll sign up for that in a nanosecond. Yes.
John Coleman: It’s really interesting and it will be really interesting to see how it plays out practically. Obviously, we’ve got elections coming up. There are two very different platforms at play and there’s the chance of a divided Congress and presidency. And I think that will be one of the interesting questions along with spending as we enter that potential environment, just exactly what happens. I’ll note that on the supply chain question you know in our firm will often be invested in or own companies that have supply chain considerations. One of the things we’ve started to look at with our CEOs, they’ve been struggling in an environment for two years where the supply chain was constrained and where it’s been very difficult to get inventory. Therefore, everyone’s been trying to get in the queue for additional inventory as they can. Everyone’s been ordering. They’ve been telling customers that they’re developing backorder lists, and we’ve been trying to get as much inventory as possible. One of the concerns we’re continuing to navigate is what if that supply chain can stretch and continues? The other, however, is what if that loosens more than we think in the near term and we actually get a glut of inventory, which I know is something that some consumer companies are beginning to worry about as well. And this uncertainty around supply chain could create problems in either direction. Right. You could see people with a glut of inventory with working capital management problems. You could continue to see people not be able to get the components or equipment or goods that they need. And we’re not certain which way that will go at the moment.
Bob Dole: Yeah, I’ll comment and then let David pick it up. Look, the GDP report, we just got 200 basis points of GDP negative as a result of inventory. So it spoke loudly and clearly in the second quarter. I have to go all the way back to the pandemic. When the pandemic came, we shut down the economy. We turned it off. We’ve never done that before. And then we turn it back on. I think the assumption naively was I turn it back on and everything comes back to normal. Well, it’s just not the case. It created all kinds of dislocations that we are still dealing with today, and that’s going to take time to unwind. And my comments earlier, I said, I think some of the supply chain problems are easing a bit and I don’t want to be too Pollyannish here. So I think we’re solving some of them, but we got a lot of them left. Semiconductors, you know, a little less bad than it was, if you will. But we got a ways to go. And this is not going to be smooth and easy. And then if we try to layer a recession on top of it, it’s going to set us back a bit in figuring out how to balance supply, demand and lots of markets. So I think there’s a multi-year solve that we can’t underestimate.
David Spika: Yeah, I agree completely. Just like we’re feeling pain with regard to a significant increase in demand coming out of the pandemic. There’s going to be pain on the supply side and we’re just going to have to work through it. And quite frankly, I would just as soon see the supply chain issue clear up sooner rather than later and deal with those issues today as opposed to an extended period of stagflation.
John Coleman: Yeah, I agree with that, David, for sure. If I could bring it back onshore for a minute. One thing we haven’t talked about directly yet is the housing market, which is deeply related to interest rates. We were with Jonathan Reckford, the CEO of Habitat for Humanity International recently, who quoted a statistic that I hadn’t heard before. That right now is the greatest gap between median income and median home price in the history of the United States, that homes are less affordable for the average American than they have been at any point. And certainly we’ve been living through an incredibly hot residential housing markets. Interest rates are beginning to cool that, it would seem. What are your expectations, David, for the housing market over the course of the next 12 to 18 months? And what are some of the risk factors at play there?
David Spika: I’ll begin just by saying that my daughter is going to be 30 next month and her husband of two years are looking for a house here in the Dallas area. And I said, why don’t you wait another year? I don’t think the time is right yet, but I do think we’re going to see and we’re starting to see it. You’re seeing mortgage applications at 22 year lows. You’re seeing sales start to decline. Prices are leveling off, not falling yet, but with mortgage rates where they are and with the point you mentioned about the disparity between house prices and income, you’re going to see house prices come down. There is no question in my mind one of the good things about recessions that we all think recessions are bad and they generally are, but they tend to do a good job of reducing imbalances in the economy. That’s what recessions are for it’s like pruning the crate, modeling your front yard. You got to prune it back to get new growth. We need the same thing in the economy, and so that’s likely to happen. The good news is, in my mind, this is not like 08, 08 was a hugely demand driven run in home prices as a result of very easy credit. This run feels like, at least here where I live in Dallas, to be more of a supply issue, we just don’t have the supply that we need to meet demand today, and not just on the residential side, but if you look on the commercial side and talk about multifamily, my gosh, is there demand for multifamily? And so that demand is likely to keep a floor under prices for a period of time. But that’s a regional issue. I don’t think it’s going to be the same here in Dallas as it is and say, northern California or someplace else. There’s going to be some differences there. But bottom line, yes, there’s going to be a decline in house prices. It needs to happen. It’s part of the Fed’s plan to eliminate to reduce the wealth effect. But we don’t think it’ll be anywhere near what we saw in LA.
Bob Dole: I fully agree, a business cycle one on one. The most interest rate sensitive part of our economy is housing. And so it typically is the first to go this way and the first to come back out. It is part of what the Fed does when they stimulate to get us out of recession and you start seeing life in housing. So we are in the early days of the downturn, including the price of homes, as David said.
John Coleman: I want to touch on briefly. You know, we’ve gotten a lot of great macroeconomic thoughts here that you’re both extraordinary fund managers and you’ve been investing in companies for a very long time. David, I think it was you who mentioned up front that you were selectively looking at securities that might be worth investing in at companies that you thought were well positioned right now as you’re both looking at specific investments. What are the types of traits you’re looking for? Maybe starting with David that indicate to you that a company is ready for investment or something that you’re willing to bet on through this cycle. And what do you think our listeners should be looking for?
David Spika: I think if you’re going to be moving into the equity market, you need to be very focused on high quality companies, companies with good, strong fundamental characteristics, strong free cash flow, low debt. And really importantly today, pricing power, costs remain high, labor costs, input costs. Companies need to have the ability to pass those through to their customers in order to grow their earnings. Top line growth is great for everybody. It’s that earnings because we’re getting operating margin compression. So that high quality aspect to me is absolutely critical today. Being somewhat defensive makes sense, and that doesn’t mean you just buy health care and consumer staples. There are high quality companies with defensive characteristics in every sector of the market and companies that have good earnings visibility. Right. Not your cyclical companies, but companies with good earnings visibility. That’s where I would be playing today.
Bob Dole: We do not compare notes, but I would have said and I will say quality, quality, quality. And we define it three different ways. One, quality of the income statement earnings. Is it predictable? Are they measurable? Are related to cash flow? And we can call them quality of quality. The balance sheet. Can they service the debt that’s on their balance sheet? Do they have debt? Will it strangle them? The things really get bad. And the third and the hardest to measure is quality of management. Have they done it before, through a cycle? Have they demonstrated they know how to cut costs, the right costs when it’s time to reinvest? Can they do that intelligently? So quality, quality, quality. Now, I will say we’ve been on that theme for a while and as we approach a market bottom, we’ll have to root out some of that quality and with put some low quality in the portfolio, because when the market turns, you don’t want quality, you’ll be left in the dust. You want to own the junk too soon, but start doing your homework.
David Spika: Absolutely. Agree. 100%, Bob.
John Coleman: Yeah, we were just talking here. We’ve had the same advice to people with regards to fund managers quality, quality and quality. Because if you think about it, it’s been 15 years since we had some sort of dramatic correction. Obviously, we’ve had years where the markets were down marginally, that the last dramatic correction was the great financial crisis. And an extraordinary number of company leaders and fund managers really haven’t had experience at the top of the house in leadership positions with an economic cycle like this. And so you’ve got to look to your point to those leadership teams, both at fund management houses and at individual companies that have seen cycles like this before, are intellectually prepared for it, and know what types of steps to take and what type patients to have during periods like this.
David Spika: Can I make a quick comment on that? Because I think you struck a nerve there. It’s been 40 years since we’ve seen inflation at this level, so most people have not experienced this. But I’ll tell you what’s even more important in my mind, it’s been 12, 14 years since we’ve seen a market truly react to fundamentals. A lot of people in this business have only seen a market that’s been driven by monetary policy. They have no idea what happens when the Fed turns the other direction on monetary policy. They don’t understand about quality, as Bob saying, and that fundamentals should be driving stock prices. And to me, that’s a little concerning. And I think that’s one of the reasons why the market is rallying here this week. On something that I don’t think really has any merit. Oh, gee, the Fed’s going to cut rates at some point. Powell told us that. So let’s get back in. Well, that doesn’t make any sense. We haven’t even seen the earnings cuts yet. So to me, that’s something that I think we need to keep an eye on.
Bob Dole: I’ll extend that first of all with agreement. But we’re in an environment and should be for some time where fundamentals really do matter. We have basically a decade where all you want to do is buy high duration stocks with long tail growth. Because like in the bond market, when interest rates fall, you want to own the long duration paper. What’s a long duration equity? One that might earn some money and pay a dividend ten years from now. To exaggerate, to make the point. Now it’s which companies are delivering the goods? Which ones aren’t. And you know what the first outperforming the last don’t. But that’s not been normal in the last decade. It should be a year when those who do their fundamental homework have a better shot.
John Coleman: All right. I want to ask one final question before we move to our true final question about what you all are learning from scripture. Because in addition to being great investors, you’re great men of faith. And I know we would all benefit from hearing what you’re thinking about and what God is teaching you right now. Before we do that, I’ll just ask a 10,000 foot question, which is for those investors who haven’t lived through the cycle and for all of us who haven’t lived through it in a while, what’s your general advice to someone hoping to navigate this well and to steward their financial resources well over the coming couple of years?
David Spika: I’ll go ahead. Jump in. I would say, first and foremost, for believers remember who’s in control? The Lord’s in control. Don’t get caught up in what you’re reading on Facebook or hearing on Twitter or seeing in the mainstream media the Lord’s in control. The other thing I would say is recognize that it has been since 2008, since we’ve had a true recession. 2020 wasn’t a true recession. That was self-imposed. And as I said earlier, recessions do a modicum of good for the economy. They reduce imbalances and they cleanse the economy so that we can have growth again. The third thing is recognize that valuations were way too high and we’ve seen a significant decline in valuations. So we’re closer to the bottom, much closer than we were six months ago. And at some point, we’ll be there. And if you’ve got some dry powder, you can benefit from that.
Bob Dole: You prompt us on this question. So I made a list of five. One recognize that what we have is not ours. It’s the Lord’s. And not just our money, our everything, our minds, our bodies, our relationships, everything two. Therefore, it’s an awesome privilege, but also an awesome responsibility. You know, if the money is really mine. Who cares what I do with it? But if it’s God’s now, all of a sudden I better take care of it and be smart about it. Number three, don’t get caught up in the noise and the emotion of the day. If you name the name of Jesus, people are extra watching you in periods where it’s noisy and bumpy and controversial. Try to have that compass four this is for anybody, faith or not long term view. We’re talking a lot about the near term. But, you know, if your time horizons 20 years, there is no 20 year period in history where stocks haven’t gone up. So, you know, I don’t be stupid about it, but keep that sort of thing in mind. And finally, number five, sentiment. We haven’t talked about that at all. When everybody’s bullish is generally a good thing to be bearish. And when everybody’s bearish, which they have been being a little more constructive makes some sense. So they’re the five points I would consider.
John Coleman: That’s awesome advice, gentlemen. And before we wrap up, you’ve already started to go down this path. But even apart from financial markets, we’d really benefit from just hearing what’s on your mind and what God is teaching you through Scripture right now. David, I wonder if you could kick us off just any wisdom that you’ve encountered lately in your Christian walk?
David Spika: Yeah, this has been a challenging year for me, personally and professionally, and so there have been periods where I’ve gotten a little bit discouraged. But as I’m in my quiet time, a verse to come to me recently is Galatians six nine. Let us not become weary and doing good, but at the proper time we will reap a harvest if we do not give up. Now, that’s very encouraging to know that God’s there. He’s going to help me through the challenges I’m facing. And my part is to be obedient to him and to continue to strive to glorify him in everything I do. And I know that, GuideStone, we’re doing good. We’re serving those who serve the Lord. We’re providing retirement for people who spend their entire life preaching the gospel. And that’s important. And even when we have rough periods for 6 to 12, 24 months, it doesn’t matter. Ultimately, serving God will reap rewards for us as long as we continue to be obedient to Him.
Bob Dole: Mine’s not a whole lot different. I put it under the word patience in tough times. Personally and professionally, having perspective and having the patience. The patience of Job, as we often say. But even the patience the Lord showed us. I remember in the garden he was sweat and drops of blood. But, you know, he maintained his center Lord, not my will, but yours be done. So they’re the kinds of things we try to remember. Look things happen in markets very quickly, but in the real world they tend to happen more slowly. And I sometimes think those of us who are in the markets taking a patient’s pill once in a while will help us do a better job for our clients and not trying to anticipate every jot and tittle, but to get the longer sweep. So patients, my friend.
John Coleman: That’s a, I joke all the time. We’ve got a couple of our fund managers. The problem with the ticker moving every second there as you’re watching it is you can get tied up in the moment. And that idea that we’ve got faith obviously in something else and that we should be patient and think longer term is incredibly important. Bob and David, a tour de force. I would expect nothing less. I know that everyone benefited not only from your knowledge of markets, but just from your wisdom and maturity as believers. We’re grateful for the work that you do in markets and on behalf of clients. We know we’re stewarding resources for God’s kingdom, and we’re grateful to you, particularly for coming on today and sharing your thoughts. Thank you very much.
Bob Dole: Our privilege. Thank you.
David Spika: Thank you. Enjoyed it.