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The Fed’s long awaited rate cut took place. The US Election is just over a month away. In this episode, Richard Cunningham and John Coleman take a look at the many major headlines interacting with the economy and markets and provide some commentary and perspective. 

We delve into the intricacies of today’s economic landscape, from the Fed’s recent rate cuts to the performance of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks. John Coleman offers valuable insights on private equity, venture capital, and real estate markets, while also addressing the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. election on the economy. Learn how to navigate these complex times with both financial acumen and spiritual wisdom.

Episode Transcript

Richard Cunningham You’re listening to Faith Driven Investor, a podcast that highlights voices from a growing movement of Christ following investors who believe that God owns it all and cares deeply about the heart posture behind our stewardship. Thanks for listening. 

Welcome: Hey everyone! All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Hosts and guests may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed in this podcast is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization. Thanks for listening. 

Richard Cunningham Welcome back, everybody, to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor podcast. It’s episode 181. We are closing the book on Q3 2024 as when this releases, it will be September 30th. Hard to believe we are entering into the last lap of 2024 as it relates to quarters at least, and we’re talking marks on the markets. We’ve got our resident expert, John Coleman, in the podcast studio. And before we welcome John onto the pod, just a couple of quick things I want to note. If you haven’t yet, listen to our most recent FDI podcast that dropped a couple of weeks ago, episode 180 with Richard Garnett. It was a special tribute to his life. I just cannot recommend enough after you get your marks on the markets. Phil here, to go back and listen to that episode. It was unbelievably fantastic. I promise you, you will end up sharing it with a friend or someone you love. Just the wisdom and the principle shared in it are timeless and it’s worth a listen. And the final thing I want to say is, I know we’ve got a lot of cross-pollination in the faith driven investor and faith driven entrepreneur audiences. And on Friday, the 20th FD hosted its annual conference. And man, it was a big hit. I know I got to attend a watch party here in Austin, Texas. There were dozens, if not hundreds of other watch parties across the globe, and I say that to tease out that if that was a really special experience for you, the FDI conference is coming up in January, which is hard to believe. It’s only three and a half ish months away. And so it’s conference season. It’s the fall of 2020 for John Coleman. We’re talking marks on the mark. It’s great to have you guys on the podcast. How is Team Coleman. How are you guys doing. How’s your summer. How’s the fall kicking off. 

John Coleman Yeah Richard, thank you for having me. Obviously fun to be on this side of the mic. With you interviewing me, the fall is off to a good start. We love the fall. Atlanta, like Austin, can be a little bit hot. And so it’s starting to cool down just a little bit. We’ve got kids. Richard knows we’ve got four kids between 3 and 11. And so I was telling him a lot of my life is is unpaid Uber driver at the moment or chauffeur. And so, you know, but the kids are having fun. It’s super fun to get out and watch them play sports or do their theater performances. You know, this age range is just really special. So the Colemans are having a lot of fun right now. 

Richard Cunningham Great. Fantastic. Well, John, this pod comes at a great time because I feel like we’ve got kind of one of those organic stopping points in the calendar where it’s the end of September, Q3 is over. And that’s going to kind of be the theme of today is that’s, you know, we’re in an election year. We’ve got three fourths of the year covered. We’ve had some massive kind of markets and economic headlines. And so we’re just gonna kind of go subject by subject on a few big items and let you kind of provide some commentary and some thoughts and always that kind of redemptive and biblical perspective on things. And let’s start with the big one from just this past week, September 18th. The fed cut rates, and it is a long expected, long anticipated rate cut. They’ve been at, you know, multi-year highs, I think as a 23 year high cut rates down to 50 basis points. And so what has kind of been the storyline. Why did we go on this rate hiking situation and kind of cycle in the first place and kind us kind of some of the commentary and background as to the decisions the Fed’s been making. 

John Coleman Yeah, obviously huge news this week, Richard, in softening in the fed rate. You know effectively we started this rate hike cycle because of inflation. So we went through this uniquely long period of low interest rates globally after the great financial crisis in 2008. And we’ve talked about this on the podcast before that period, 2008 to 2000, 22 or so was really one of the more unusual in economic history. You know, we began to think of that as normal because for most of us in our adult lives, that was kind of normal. But if you looked at the prior hundred years, for example, the interest rates that prevailed during that time were unusually low. Our current rates are actually more in line with historical averages. If you were to look back in the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s and before, in fact, in the 70s and 80s, interest rates were obviously quite, quite a lot higher than they are right now. And so that period after the great financial crisis was unusually low. And what happened at that point was in order to avoid a Great Depression, you know, a repeat of 1929. In the 1930s, the central banks around the world, not just in the United States or around the world, felt the need to drop interest rates artificially low. And when you drop interest rates, that obviously spurs economic activity because money becomes cheaper to borrow, you can borrow money to buy a house, you can borrow money to buy business to finance new capital. And so it’s stimulatory to the economy. As we rolled through Covid, right, interest rates were still unusually low in the United States and around the world. But then we got hit with a ton of fiscal stimulus. Right? So we went into Covid. The federal government just dropped from a helicopter a ton of money into the economy that was warranted at the time because it felt like in the initial lockdowns, we could risk going into a severe economic recession and then coming out of that, what a lot of people believe is the federal government, they can continue to stimulate the economy too far. So the Biden administration’s so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which was like a very Orwellian term because it was actually a very stimulatory inflation causing act, dumped a ton more money into the economy. They continued Covid stimulus long after the lockdowns were over as a reality. And what happened on the backs of that is massive inflation, which we’ve been living through for the last couple of years. Right. And I say massive inflation. I mean, this wasn’t like Argentine style inflation that we experienced as the United States, but it was very high inflation relative to what we’d experienced for the couple of decades prior. In response to that, the fed had to go through one of the most aggressive tightening cycles of our lifetimes. And tightening means they’re raising the federal funds rate, which is the rate at which they loan to banks, which raises interest rates all over the economy. Right. And they did so up until we got to kind of like 5.5%, which was much higher than where we had been previously, or almost 6%. So what’s happened most recently is the fed has now begun to loosen the economy. So inflation has slowed. There are some signs that the fundamental economy might be softening a little bit. You know, what was really interesting about this tightening cycle is usually when the fed raises interest rates, you slip into recession and they basically break the back of inflation by forcing the economy into a recession, which kills inflation, hopefully. And that’s kind of what happened coming out of the 1970s. In this case, we never actually slipped into recession. We never actually saw unemployment rise to the level. You could characterize it as problematic or outside of historical norms. And we never actually saw at least the official growth rates of the US slip into recession territory. Although we’ve seen there there’s been some funny business with those numbers over the course of the last 18 months or so. So it’s difficult to tell. And so now the fed is living in this interesting period, Richard, where the economy is softening a bit, but it’s not yet that the inflation is coming down and more under control, but not yet at their target rates. And yet they’re anticipating problems. And so the fed is now trying to cut rates to get ahead of those problems so that they can have a so-called soft landing where, you know, the nirvana here is that we get inflation under control and then we start to lower rates in a way that keeps inflation under control, but avoids any sort of dramatic rise in unemployment or dramatic recession in the economy. And that’s what they’re targeting so far. It seems like they might have achieved that. It’s a bit too soon to tell. We’ll know in a year. But this week they dropped rates by 50 basis points. The prediction markets would tell us that most people are anticipating they’ll drop it by another 50 basis points before the end of the year. So a full percentage drop between this week and the end of the year, which would be a fairly dramatic cut and would get us back to even below historical levels at like 4.5%. I think, you know, the fed is probably targeting getting to something like 3% by 2026, which may be the new normal for interest rates. More what we’ve lived through previously. If they can keep inflation under control. 

Richard Cunningham Well, man, that’s a fantastic run down. And so just to recap kind of some of the actual rate numbers behind it. So in March 17th, 2022, as John alluded to, the hiking began and it rates were down in the 0.25, 2.5 50% range to 25 Bips to 50 Bips, and they aggressively spiked them over the last two and a half years. And finally, on September 18th, 2024, we saw our first cut. And we’re back in that 4.75 to 5% federal funds rate as John was speaking to John. Fantastic rundown. And so here’s kind of, you know, hindsight’s 2020. And I know it’s as you’ve kind of mentioned right now, it feels like the fed has navigated us to a spot that is digestible. But there have been nine rate cutting cycles over the past 30 years that have taken place. Three of those nine have began with a 25 bips cut, and six began with a 50 basis points cut. As we just saw, history suggests that after the 50 basis point rate cuts, we tend to see recessionary periods and markets the S&P 500 declining on the back of that recessionary period. Do you think that is a possible outcome here, or would you kind of say, hey, I think we’re heading in the right direction? This was the move that needed to be made. Recession is just TBD. 

John Coleman Yeah. No one knows. For sure. But I do think there is a correlation causation issue there that we have to be aware of. So typically rate cuts are because we’re already heading into recession. Right. So if you think about it, the rate cut itself might not be the causal factor throwing an economy into recession or increasing unemployment, right. It could be that the economy is already sliding into recession, unemployment is spiking and the fed cuts rates as a response. And so it would be natural that as the economy deteriorates, even if the fed is cutting rates, that it might continue to deteriorate. Right. And that that might be what’s actually causing the recession or causing a decline in markets. I think that’s entirely possible here. Right? We don’t know how deep this slide and underlying the slip in underlying economic indicators is. I would say it’s tough to parse the data right now because a lot of the economic growth in the United States, I think, is currently funded by deficit spending, by government spending, because we’re still running massive historically high deficits and running up a huge, unsustainable debt, which we could talk about. We we also see employment information is a bit off in the sense that, a lot of it is spurred by immigration. And so, citizens in the United States, the employment data is a little bit weaker than in the economy overall, which would include a wide variety of workers. And so without any judgment on any of those underlying trends, it can be tough to parse just how strong or weak the underlying economy really is. I would say, given the way that this has played out, our chances of avoiding a significant recession or a significant rise in unemployment feel to me better than in the past. I think the economy, the fed, is really trying to get ahead of significant deterioration right now. So I think the real economy has a decent shot of maybe, maybe a mild recession, maybe some continued deterioration, but potentially not getting that bad. Markets are a little bit more difficult to predict in my mind, Richard, because they are at such high levels of valuation right now. So particularly at the top end of the market in large cap growth stocks, the Magnificent Seven, we are at much greater than average price to earnings ratios for those biggest stocks right now. And in fact for that top I think it’s like quartile the Russell three 3000. The price to earnings ratios are above historical averages in significant ways. How that interacts with this rate cut with some softness in the underlying economy. I don’t know if I were to tell you what I’d really be predicting is that if it looks like we’re going to get a soft landing, that small caps will likely appreciate some, that The Magnificent Seven and some of the other large caps are likely to return to historical averages of price to earnings ratios, or that they’re going to come down a little bit. The overall impact on markets is likely to be slightly negative on, kind of market cap weighted index perspective, but that’s because the valuations of those are so high right now. So there’s a lot going on in the economy right now. I don’t think anybody has exactly the right picture of what’s going on. But if I had to predict the next year, it’s kind of a sluggish economy that’s not quite in recession, where we’re kind of chugging along the chance that markets kind of come back to historical averages for price to earnings ratios or decline a little bit would be somewhat high. And the fed is going to continue to be relatively cautious, do a 50 basis point cut, I think by the end of the year, and then take a wait and see approach in the new year to see how much of an impact that had. 

Richard Cunningham Fair, fair, really good breakdown. Let’s go to that next because I want to talk about how what’s taking place in the economy with the fed is kind of dovetailed into markets and how they’ve interacted. So you spoke to Magnificent Seven. As we all know, a large part of the S&P 500 performance is attributable to those seven largest market cap weighted stocks. And so you’ve got the S&P is up 20.57% year to date. We’re recording this on the 24th of September. So barring something massive happens between now and release date that’s kind of where we are. Nvidia up 141.35%. Meta up 62.99%, Amazon 29%, Apple 21%, Google and Microsoft, respectively. Almost 17% Tesla, who’s kind of that seventh member of the Magnificent Seven who had been on a really tough slog. Looks like they’ve benefited from the rate cut. They’re back up and 64 bips on the year, but that is up almost 5% in the last five days alone. And then compare that to the Russell 2000, which is kind of the representative small cap universe, if you will, not having a bad year up 10.31%. But comparatively to what’s taking place in the S&P 500 and with kind of the mega-cap stocks, if you will, still lagging far behind. So that’s kind of one. Realm is the public markets and their interaction with what’s taking place in the economy. But John, you’re investing across multiple asset classes. And your role at Sovereigns Capital, whether it be private equity, venture capital, real estate and elsewhere, what have you seen kind of on a on a macro perspective with where the economy has been, what’s been taking place and how it’s kind of permeating into multiple different markets? 

John Coleman Yeah. Great question, Richard. So to start with public markets, I think you highlighted the trends perfectly. We’ve been on this crazy run in stocks generally. I think people are starting to assume like I get 20% a year in stocks and that’s not true. You know, the historical rate is like 7 or 8% in public markets if you look over time. And I would expect that at some point we kind of get back to that 7 or 8%, which means we’ve got to have some sort of significant decline for averages to start to take hold. There’s really, as people have been fearful of a potential recession and also very enthusiastic about the rise of artificial intelligence and other technology trends. There’s been a flight to quality at the top end of the stock market in these technology enabled stocks. And I would say that Google, meta, Nvidia certainly we could talk about that separately. Amazon. These are all stocks that are not just quality stocks. You know they’re performing. They’re profitable. They’re growing. They also intersect with artificial intelligence quite a lot. Tesla is that story too in a very different way. They’re not large language models, but Tesla is trying to develop artificial general intelligence for driving, for physical spaces and for robotics. And so you’ve got this thing where at the top of the market, there are these high quality stocks in a growth market where people are flying to quality, and they all intersect with the biggest trend in markets, which is artificial intelligence. And so they’ve been bid up above historical price to earnings ratios. And people have been a bit nervous about being in small and mid-cap because of the fears of recession. Again, I would expect if we hit a soft landing for some of that to normalize. I think that enthusiasm around artificial intelligence is also likely to normalize. I firmly believe that artificial intelligence is at least the biggest trend since the internet. I mean, it has the power to be incredibly transformative, especially moving beyond the large language models like ChatGPT. If you start thinking about like what Tesla is doing, trying to develop artificial intelligence for physical spaces, for driving, for robotics, that’s where I think we take a leap where this begins to dramatically impact the economy, even as large language models are, you know, revolutionizing certain areas of the economy, like customer service or some legal tasks, things like that. And so I think those underlying trends are somewhat likely to continue. But I do think we’ll see a normalization in public markets. I think in private markets you are seeing continued sluggishness. Right. And that has a few sources. One is we’ve just seen fewer exits in private markets lately. And private equity and venture capital real estate is its own segment, which we could talk about in a moment, because I think that’s a totally different set of trends. You know, the FTC in the United States has been very aggressive about restricting acquisitions and mergers in the United States. So Lina Khan has been particularly aggressive about that, meaning the lot of potential options for venture backed companies to exit have not materialize. They haven’t been able to be acquired or to go public with the public market. IPO market and the Spac markets have been quite slow lately, and so there haven’t been as many opportunities for exits, which means that if you invest in in a venture capital fund ten years ago, you might not be getting your money back in the way that you thought, which means you can invest it in a new thing. Right? So I was listening to a very good podcast, the All In Podcast, last week, and they had a stat which I haven’t had a chance to verify independently, but they had a stat where, you know, typically over the last period of time, first time venture funds, about 50% of them are able to raise a second fund. Right now, the stats are that about 15% one 5% of venture funds are able to raise a second fund after the first fund. Because it’s been so difficult to fundraise, it’s been so difficult to get returns. The vintages have been really challenged for 2019, 2021 because of the collapse in venture markets and the slow period to get liquidity. And I would say from my point of view, we’re seeing that I think our team that looks at different fund managers, I want to say this statistic was something like the average fund manager was only raising about 60% of its target, according to the broad based indexes that we look at, which is resonant with this idea that most venture funds, that sort of fund one are not getting to fund two right now. You know, a lot of clients pay to invest in their new venture and private equity funds by getting DPI or distributions from their old funds. Nobody’s distributing capital right now, which we’ve seen. People are not selling positions they bought at inflated rates. Financing is more expensive right now, so leveraged buyouts are more challenged at the moment because rates are higher. And so that’s generated real sluggishness, I think, in the private markets, both for limited partners and general partners. What that hasn’t meant is that the underlying companies are necessarily doing badly. You know, some of these fast growing tech stocks in the venture markets have obviously had a difficult time because there aren’t many exit opportunities. And there’s been this, you know, 2021 was this weird upcycle in venture where everything was really over bed. So valuations have come down from that. But if you look at like real companies in the economy, a lot of them are still doing pretty well. And you know, we see that across the companies that we look at. Employment was really tied a couple of years ago. It’s hard to get good people still hard in certain skilled trades, but that softened a little bit. So hiring is a bit easier right now. Borrowings expensive but not out of control. Expensive like it was in the 70s, for example. So you can sell finance equipment and things like that. A variety of private lenders have sprung up in the private market, so it’s a little harder to get bank loans right now because of some problems in banks where they’ve got exposures they’re trying to manage. But there are private credit markets where you can get loans. So we’re still seeing reasonable health in the underlying economy itself. But transactionally things have slowed. And that means that the funds markets have slowed. And again, I’ll pause there. We could talk about real estate a bit if you want, but that’s what we’re seeing in the private company world. 

Richard Cunningham Yeah, it’s a great recap. And I’m looking at a couple of charts here that relate to what you’ve just talked about. And so going back to the venture and kind of the market for exits in the IPO market, you mentioned that wild year of 2021. And then there’s kind of the Spac craze and everything like that going on. But there was and U.S. stock markets, public markets, there is 1035 exits that took place. And then in 2022, it dropped all the way down to 181 exits. In 23, it was 154. We are at currently 145 exits here in U.S. kind of IPO markets. And so, as John was talking about for these high growth tech companies that venture capital funds back, you know, it’s either get acquired by a strategic to get distributions back or take the company public. And when those exit markets have dried up, as we’ve talked about, not fully dried up. These aren’t crazy off of historical averages. It’s just in 2021, everyone, when they’re seeing companies go exit hand over fist, decided to launch a venture fund and said, I want to get in the game. We can go take this company public in a matter of months. Things have just come back to reality. And then additionally, John, you were talking about private equity and private credit and things like that, and just the difficulty for fund managers to raise funds. And there’s just been LP hesitancy because of the lack of DPI or liquidity coming back to them. A vintage year is when a fund launches and ultimately, you know, kind of classifies the year that fund was launched and how their performance ranks amongst their peers. That also launch that year, 2023 vintage private equity funds are down 8.85%, venture capital funds are down 6.22%. This is a chart from PitchBook 2022. Vintage funds are a little better, private equity is roughly flat and venture capital is down 6%. And it takes you going back almost to kind of 2020, 2019 realms to find that kind of outsized market performance in terms of IRR amongst private equity and venture capital funds. 

John Coleman And one thing to be cautious at there, you know, is the J curve. So I would expect that 20 2223 tight private funds, maybe even 2022 would be a negative right now because of. So for listeners unfamiliar, there’s some called the J curve in private markets where money tends to go out quicker than it comes in, there are transaction costs to it. And so if you hold a private equity fund, it’s not unusual to see it go negative for a couple of years and then come out of it. What I would say is like, you know, we were looking at venture funds that were posting 4,050% paper returns, IRR, you know, with no DPI, but 50% paper returns a few years ago. Some of those firms are still posting pretty good paper returns IRR. There is no DPI, right. Or there’s very limited DPI and funds are stretching on past their like ten year windows and things like that. And so one of the challenges, particularly in venture private equity is a bit different is are the paper returns really real if you can’t get money from them? And how are you going to start to get DPI? How are you going to start to get liquidity if the exit markets are not so good, that’s where you can start to use secondary markets, which has come into favor. But secondaries are trading at deep discounts right now. So you’re taking a hit on your IRR. So I think it’s a bit too soon to tell how these most recent couple of years of vintages will turn out. I’m actually optimistic that the vintages starting in like 2022, where they’re investing end of 2022, 23 are going to end up being positive. Typically, when you see a big dip like we saw in 22 when the rate cycle started, it hurts the vintage a few years prior to that, but really helped. The vintage coming out of that. So if you went back to the great financial crisis, I think it was like 20. 2006 vintages were really bad, and then like 2009 vintages were really good, or ten vintages. I’m maybe beginning that just a little bit wrong. You might see something like that here, but certainly, you know, the returns are going to be flatter than they looked for these like 2016 vintages that were just killing it in 2021 overbid. And we really don’t know how the venture funds are going to turn out until we start getting real cash back. Right. These paper returns are much more difficult to assess. 

Richard Cunningham Well said, well said. Yeah. And our actually two podcasts ago we had Chris Kim on who is from a secondaries firm breaking down just what it looks like to be a provider of those liquidity solutions where they come in and buy, you know, LP interest and private markets position. So definitely worth checking out. And if you’re curious about kind of some of these exit solutions John is talking about and what a secondary is. All right. Let’s quickly hit on real estate because we’ve alluded to it a number of times. It’s, you know, acutely affected by the rate environment. And then let’s go on to after we talk real estate, just some of the election year stuff. You’ve made a few nods to government intervention and activity throughout this podcast. And so I want to talk about that. But real quick on real estate, John. 

John Coleman Yeah, so on the real estate markets, it’s so pretty dicey right now. Honestly, Richard, you know, some of the more attractive segments like industrial or warehouses etc. got a little bit overbid. And so there’s still a lot of demand for those as we have this kind of secular increase in the need for those types of facilities in the US office is still very precarious. I think any of these real estate cycles can sometimes take some time to work through because of all the lease agreements. You know, we’re still working through leases that were signed five, six, seven, ten years ago sometimes. And so it’s not a cliff. You know, those tend to roll off over time as rates reset, etc.. I would say office is still somewhat weak. We’re seeing a lot more return to office, but I don’t think we’re seeing anything like the demand for office that we saw in 2019, for example. I mean that structurally things have just changed in the way that people work. And I think that’s going to stick. And then residential is in this odd period of time where because a lot of people locked in rates for their properties that are renting a few years ago and rates have gone up so dramatically, it is much more expensive to buy an apartment condo house right now in most areas than it is to rent. There’s been this inversion where, you know, the natural order of things is it’s a bit more expensive to rent and to buy because landlords are getting rewarded for basically their outlay of risk capital. So you pay a premium to rent, not outlay any upfront or risk capital. And then if you buy something you kind of benefit from that over time. Right now there’s an inversion of that where it’s much cheaper to rent than to buy. I think because of the movement in interest rates over the last couple of years. I saw a chart recently where, you know, cap rates on rental properties right now, which is which is obviously the income from that property divided by its value are lower than the mortgage rate. So there’s an inversion in that because mortgage rates are higher. And that’s just caused a lot of sluggishness in the home market. Rates are coming down but they’re still high. You know mortgage rates I think for really good credit score like six a little over 6% right now. Many people are locked in at like three, which is, you know, almost twice the cost on a monthly basis. I mean, not quite twice the cost. And so people aren’t selling. A lot of people aren’t buying. A lot of people who stocked up on these kind of rental properties, Airbnb, Vrbo that’s coming back down to earth. And there’s been some not distress in that area. But I think you’re starting to see that space more challenged. And it still just doesn’t make sense to buy a new property right now to rent. Right. That’s inverted at the moment. And so that continues to be sluggish. The other thing that’s been true for more than a decade now is sluggishness in new home starts, a lot of which never really recovered to pre great financial crisis levels. I think that’s continue to be sluggish, although I think the August numbers said new home starts were up just a bit. Obviously there’s a secular shortage in housing in America. Our population is growing faster than our housing stock, especially when you include immigration. And so there’s a shortage of housing right now, whether rental or purchase. And so you would think that would lead to more construction. It’s helping to lead to higher prices, right? Where there’s the highest gap between the price of a property and the average median income in history, basically over the last couple of years. So that shortage is driving up prices. You would think it would drive up new home starts or new construction. And maybe that’s starting to happen, although that’s a pretty sluggish indicator. And so housing right now is still continues to be tough. The mortgage market continues to be tough. And if I were, you know, to predict I don’t. I think that dramatically changes in 25. Even with interest rates coming down. Although if we come down another 50 basis points, and especially if the fed were to bring things down another full percentage point next year and we get in the kind of threes again on the fed funds rate, mortgage rates get down in the force. We see that starting to loosen up quite a lot. But I think that remains to be seen. 

Richard Cunningham That’s a really good analysis. I know the season of life we find ourselves in, it is friends and family. Friends and all that situation are looking to be that first time homebuyer. And they sit there and they say, man, my rent payment as you’re talking about, would double because of where interest rates are and mortgage rates are, even though I can afford a 20% down payment. And so why go under that duress or that stress when you can rent it below market rates, if you will? And I know people are feeling that acutely. All right let’s pivot John. And we’ve got a few minutes left here. And we have got an election coming up in a month and some change. We currently have a Democrat controlled Senate, a Republican controlled House and a Democrat controlled white House. Obviously, you’ve got Kamala Harris running and the Democrat Party, you’ve got Donald Trump running on the Republican side. We are in debate season. We saw the debate a few weeks back, and it feels like the tension and the temperature is up, as always in an election year, but maybe help kind of bring us back down to earth and steady us as you kind of provide some of the maybe economic commentary on both candidates or some of the things you’re seeing and what the bigger issues are as we head into November’s election season. 

John Coleman Yeah. I mean, anybody who tells you they know what’s going to happen right now is lying to you. This has been and this continues to be like the craziest political environment of my lifetime. Certainly, you know, we’ve had two assassination attempts. We’ve had a president be revealed to be in cognitive decline, ousted from office, a new nominee basically appointed by the party without a process, massive reversals in polls, obviously, just a number of kind of crazy policy proposals. And I think more than at any point in my lifetime, too, we’re also seeing candidates just throw spaghetti at the wall in terms of policies. They think we’ll get them votes right. So every day some new promise comes out to try and for lack of a better term, by a vote, right up. Student loan forgiveness, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. You know, mortgage, first time homebuyer assistance. I mean, we’re running trillions of dollars in deficits. And every day I wake up and there’s some new handout that people are proposing. I think, look, this won’t be revolutionary analysis. I think that in general, it’s likely that markets would react better to a Trump win than a Harris win at this point. What do markets not like about the Trump candidacy? I think and this is one man’s opinion. I don’t think they like some of what they perceive as the volatility of that, not knowing exactly what might come of that, not knowing exactly how the administration will behave in certain circumstances. What I think they favor versus a Harris administration would be a lot of kind of traditionally conservative policies that would be positives for the underlying economy. Right? I think a Trump presidency is staked out pretty clearly that it would try and slash regulation, that it would cut down on the regulatory burden of the business environment in the United States right now, or at least that’s what they’ve stated they would do. They did some of that last time. That would be very stimulatory for business right now in a positive way. I think the Harris administration has signaled in alignment with the Biden administration on some just absolutely insane policy proposals on tax. To be honest, a lot of people now are saying, well, you know, she kind of doesn’t mean it. She’s just appealing to her base. But this idea of taxing unrealized capital gains, for example, even if they’re only doing that higher income people of dramatically raising capital gains taxes at the federal level, of dramatically raising income tax rates, all of these would range from slightly negative to catastrophic for markets if they were to be implemented, and seemed so poorly considered that a lot of people are basically saying they don’t mean it, they’re just appealing to people. I think that with regards to potential negative shocks in the international environment, you know, we’ve obviously got very volatile situations right now with China, with Ukraine and Russia with a widening conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is now effectively, openly at war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has been a breaking thing this week as they’ve stepped up that conflict, moving beyond pushing back on the terrorist attacks that occurred out of Gaza. I mean, so that’s very volatile. I think people are very split on which candidate would be positive for that. I think there are wide contingent of. Folks who believe that a Trump presidency would potentially change that environment a bit, that Russia and China would be a bit more cautious during a Trump presidency than during a Harris presidency. And there’s a lot of fear, honestly, right now, with Joe Biden seemingly not as engaged as president, as he was before that something could happen between now and inauguration, right where it’s kind of unclear how the power structure is operating at the moment. So I do think there are some near-term risks to that. And then, you know, one thing. I’ll make an overarching comment, Richard, and it kind of goes back to this. You know, we’re in the handout stage of the election process where everybody’s just trying to announce new policies. They think people will vote for neither candidate, neither party has in their platform any significant way of addressing the structural deficits and debt that we’re accruing right now. Early in the next year, our interest payments on the federal debt are going to go over $1 trillion, effectively, no matter what happens with rates, you know, our entitlement payments for health care and for Social Security in our interest rate payments now eat up the vast majority of the federal budget. They dwarf defense spending. They dwarf spending on the apparatus of the federal government itself. And I heard a stat the other day that almost half of the US economy in some way touches government spending, meaning either is directly a federal agency or state or local agency, or is reliant as a private sector business on funding from those. Right. So we’re reaching this point where the government has just become an enormous part of the federal, state and local economies. Right. And that used to be a platform of the Conservative Party, the Republican Party, that was a loser electorally, because no one likes to hear that we’re out of money and we can’t spend anymore. And everybody wants to know that you can. No one likes higher tax rates, which is the other way to solve that. Although higher tax rates at this point, a lot of people think would be negative for the economy. You reach a point at which if you tax more, you actually hurt the economy. And some people think we’re there, and I just don’t know who’s going to actually begin to fix that. It might be a significant crisis with our debt that forces us to do any sort of cuts or reform to things like Social Security and Medicaid or Medicare, which are really the only ways to fix this imbalance going forward. So I think the next couple months are going to be nuts. Honestly, next month and a half, whatever, it’s in the election. I think it’s going to be pretty dicey all the way through inauguration, because I think the likelihood that we definitively know who won the election on the night of the election is as low as it has been the case since Bush versus Gore, and I think we’re going to see a lot of tumult no matter who wins. And so I would just be prepared for a ton of volatility through at least the inauguration. And then after that, you know, I do think Trump would be initially better received by markets, especially because of the tax policies that have been proposed by the Harris administration. But I do think the long term health of the US economy will be contingent upon whether either of the parties faces up to this deficit and debt problem that we have in a responsible way, and help the United States kind of fix the imbalances that are going on there, which it doesn’t seem like either party or the voters behind them have any appetite to deal with right now. 

Richard Cunningham Like one double clicking on the the debt problem is Donald Trump’s proposed a government efficiency commission, if you will. And he’s specifically and maybe this is just social media world, as you know, called on Elon Musk to be the person to come in and almost clean house and just let’s evaluate where overspending is taking place. And to be clear, there’s some phenomenal people that do incredible tasks for the US government. But as John has kind of alluded to, there has been some just wild overspending which has led to our debt levels. Any thoughts on just kind of that approach, if you will, instead of kind of looking across just government inefficiencies and waste of money, if you will. 

John Coleman Look, I think it is I won’t comment on the Elon thing. I won’t comment on that specific circumstance. I would say, obviously government spending is inefficient right now. Right? I think there’s been a lot of news recently about this, like Federal Broadband Initiative that put forward $45 billion and has not connected a single user to broadband, right? The cost to build infrastructure in US cities now is often two, three, four times as high as it is in European cities, which shocks a lot of Americans. The American government is not working well right now, and we need significant reforms to the way in which we spend to the structure of the federal government structure of state governments in certain circumstances, and there is huge opportunity for efficiency in that. I think it is a no brainer to try and take that on. I think it’s quite difficult to take on because of various employment rules around the federal government. I think it’s needed. I don’t think it fully solves our debt or deficit problem, and I don’t say that in a dismissive way, in the sense that I think we should do it. But ultimately, you don’t solve the federal deficit problem unless you either dramatically increase taxes. And again, I’m skeptical that you can do that to fix our current deficits, because I think it would flip us in. To negative growth territory, or you have to rein in the entitlement programs Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and have positive interest rate movements, which would lower the interest rate on the debt a little bit. And there are some straightforward mathematical fixes to that. Like, you can mean Social Security, you can raise the retirement age, you can do some other things on the health care side. But right now, neither political party has expressed an interest in anything, which I understand because they’re deeply unpopular with citizens. And so I think it’s a no brainer to try and do efficiency in the federal government. I don’t think it gets us all the way to fixing the structural imbalances that we have. 

Richard Cunningham Fair enough. Well said. Well, as we’re talking election volatility and just the chaos that is likely to ensue throughout the month of October and into November. Let’s rein it back in with kind of the eternal and redemptive perspective and close here with just kind of man. What’s the Lord been teaching you lately, John? And and through his word and just kind of in your time with him? 

John Coleman Yeah. Apropos to this kind of discussion, Richard, I think I’ve mentioned it once on the podcast here. I’m writing this book on money at the moment for my publisher, Harvard Business Review. And the idea is like, what are the principles for money that can make it a tool for human flourishing rather than something that’s destructive? And I just wrote a Substack about this particular point. I have this Substack on purpose, and I wrote about this passage from First Kings, about Solomon, you know, the passage where God asks Solomon what he wants, basically as he emerges as king and he asks of all things for wisdom. And because he asks for wisdom, God gives him wealth and power and those kind of things, at least out of the gates. And then, of course, we know Solomon kind of lost his wisdom over time, but it really made me reflect. In this latest piece, I put up on wisdom as a precursor to getting those other things right. I think one of the errors that we make in modern life is to turn means into ends. So power and money, for example, should be a means to doing something good in the world. You know, in the Christian world, we think of that as stewardship. Did that power money belong to God? He doesn’t need us, but he can entrust us with those things to do his purposes. And the way to use that well is to do what God intends for it, right? To use that as a steward, not to think of it as ours, our money, our power for our purposes, but his money, his power for his purposes and to submit ourselves to that. A lot of people today confuse that as an ends. I want money for money’s sake. I want power for power sake. That is the end of itself. And I think that’s obviously distorting point of view. And the wisdom of Solomon was to ask for the right judgment and discernment in wielding the authority that was going to be given to him. And, you know, that’s something that’s natural to us. But I think we do lose sight of that in day to day life, right? That wisdom is an end of itself. It is good to be wise. It is a means to stewarding all these other things because it’s discernment for God, but it is also an in. It’s good to be wise regardless of anything else. It’s good to be wise for wisdom sake. And so it’s encouraged me to think a lot more about praying for wisdom, for discernment, for judgment. Many of the folks listening this have been blessed with financial resources. They’ve been blessed with professional position. They’ve been blessed with political power. They’ve been blessed with an audience like you, Richard, on this podcast. And those things aren’t good or bad in themselves, right? They are only good or bad, depending on what we do with them. And so it should be each of our prayer every day for wisdom, discernment, judgment so that we can see the path God has for them and that we don’t ask him to join our path, but we ask that we see and join his path, that we see his will for that, and that we align ourselves with it. And so that passage in First Kings about Solomon has caused me to just reflect more and more on am I seeking and praying for wisdom enough for discernment, for judgment in every area in which I’ve been given authority, so that God may trust me with that authority and whatever else he chooses to give me, that I would be trustworthy of that, and I would have submitted myself to his will for that, and that I would have the discernment to see it. And I think all of us could potentially lean into that. 

Richard Cunningham Man, that’s fantastic. Especially relevant to me as I turn the chapter this morning out of first Chronicles, and Samuel in the first Kings of David is handing over kind of the throne to Solomon. So historically relevant to me in my own scripture time. John Coleman, thank you for that, man. How fun to keep kind of this podcast inside the FDA host family this time around. And he remarks on so many things from the fed to the economy to markets to the US election, and just always grateful for your wisdom and your timeless kind of insights that apply on this podcast. And so, folks, thank you so much for joining us. We will catch you next time. 

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In this joint release episode Richard Cunningham and Justin Foreman discuss the problem of joblessness as part of the initiative, Solving the World’s Greatest Problems. They are joined by Keren Pybus, CEO of Ethical Apparel Africa, and Ronald Ishak, CEO of Hacktiv8. They explore the impact of job creation and upskilling on individuals, families, and communities.

Episode Transcript

Richard Cunningham Welcome back, everybody, to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor podcast. And you’re about to hear this, right? The Faith Driven Entrepreneur podcast as well. Really exciting episode today as we were doing a joint release on both the FDI and FDE pods. As Justin Forman, executive director, co-founder, president of Faith Driven Movements, is in the podcast studio with me today. And Justin, we’re shaking things up a little bit, doing a joint release for the faith driven Investor and Faith and Entrepreneur podcast. As we were zooming in a little bit on a new initiative we have. Solving the world’s greatest problems, Solving the world’s greatest Problems has its own website, its own podcast. It is newly launched, newly released. And today we kind of want to go out to the FDA and FDA audiences respectively, and zoom in on one of those great problems, the problem of joblessness. And we’ll welcome our guests here shortly. But Justin, what are we up to today with this kind of special edition joint release podcast?

Justin Forman Man, good to be on the podcast with you again. You make it sound all fancy and technical like we had some deep, deep things to get to, but we were just looking for an excuse to get Richard Cunningham back on the podcast here for Faith Driven Entrepreneur. So we’re going to take what we can get. We’re competing with Baylor Baseball, Baylor Sports and all the different things that you’re commentating and jumping in on. I mean, yeah, it’s great to be back here together. It’s great to be talking about issues that matter and talking about things that matter. And so many of you guys, if you’re familiar with that, you’re an entrepreneur and faith driven investor. I’ve been following long of a new initiative called Solving the World’s Greatest Problems. And what we endeavored to do with that is to say, what can we do to create a trusted place that people can discover ways that they might be called to get involved? You know, I think when we think about this message, we think about this idea 20 years ago, information was scarce. I mean, I was looking the other day at some of these images when they were talking about Google when it first launched and some of the first images to it. And they had the search bar and right underneath it and it said like, you know, searching 250,000 pages or something like that and more coming soon or whatever it is. And it was like the point was, is when they first launched, they were trying to make the case for more information is coming. More information is coming. Hold on. Today, 20 years later, we’re at the exact opposite where we have to use machine learning. We have to use other things to try to take all of the complex and make it accessible. And so solving the world’s greatest problems is trying to be that bridge, trying to be a place that as God moves you as an entrepreneur or an investor to get involved, that you can find that first step. And so we do that through content. We do that through stories, we do that through podcasts. But that’s just the start. There’s going to be so much more coming from giving collaborations and groups to to give and to invest together with. And so there’s a lot of that that’s coming. But where we have started is we have started with some content, we started some podcast, and so you may have been able to check that out. There’s been a couple of episodes recently released where we talked about the idea, we talk about the campaign, and then we started to talk about some of these upstream issues, starting with gospel poverty. We had David Platt, we had Mart Green. Let’s talk about just some of the opportunities are in front of us and today we’re present into this idea of joblessness. And as you saw our creative team, if you check this out on the site, you’ll see this this image of these dominoes. And we really think that this is one of those issues represented by those dominoes. It’s upstream that if we can get some of this stuff right, not only can we find ways to better care for people and avoid some of the hurts and heartaches that come about when that’s not the case, but to we can just think about the opportunity that entrepreneurs, investors have, that we can be sources of either redemption or brokenness. That’s a very way that we go about it. We could be furthering some of the world’s problems if we’re not careful, or we can be a source on the other side. So yeah, super excited to talk about that. Today. We’re going to press on with some fun guests about this issue. But before we do that, we wanted to give you a little teaser. This is a little teaser, a couple of minutes of an episode for solving the World’s Greatest Problems podcast. It’s a fun style where it’s kind of like how I built this Guy Raz versus Radiolab just kind of mashed up together of all of these stories in a fun, engaging way. So let’s listen to that and then Richard will kick us off and some conversation.

Narrator What happens when a job is lost? Many of us understand the individual challenges one might face in unemployment. You know, things like increased stress, depression and insecurity. But that’s not even the worst part of it. The compounding effects of joblessness often lead to worse schooling outcomes for children, and those same children will have a much more difficult time in the labor market getting jobs once they become adults. Now, let’s let’s zoom out a little bit further and think about this on a macro level. Picture an entire community of people facing unemployment. Think about all the individuals who would struggle with their mental health. Think about the families this would affect. These are not imagined scenarios. You know, we can look at a city like Detroit in the United States and see the effects of joblessness on an entire community. In the mid 20th century, Detroit was a booming city with nearly 2 million people. It was among the country’s five most populous cities as people came in droves to work for the auto industry. Jobs were plentiful until suddenly. They weren’t between 1950 and 2010. The city saw more than a 60% decrease in its population. In 2013, the entire city filed for bankruptcy, and by 2022, the poverty rate was 33.8%, more than twice the average of the rest of the state of Michigan. Today, nearly half of all the children in Detroit grow up in poverty. While no one can limit the city’s downfall to one specific thing. There’s no doubt that the radical decrease in employment accelerated its downfall. The auto industry that once played the city’s hero quickly became the villain as thousands upon thousands of jobs were lost. And the lack of jobs affects more than the worker. You know, joblessness can shatter families, communities and entire cities. But that means the flipside is also true. Job creation can create positive and generational impact. It revitalizes, redeems and restores. My name is Afl-cio John. I’m the director of Global prosperity at the Cleveland Christian. And I’ll be a host of this episode of Solving the World’s Greatest. Today on the show, we’re going to talk about ways that Christian builders, investors and givers are helping the church win in this fight against darkness by creating jobs that bring positive and lasting change. Now let’s dive in. Act one Creating better systems. We’ll start the show off today addressing the urgency of the situation. Now, if you’d like to stress yourself out about the future, just take a look at recent studies on the global job market. A recent report by the World Economic Forum forecast that in the next five years, job growth will increase by 69 million. That sounds pretty good until you read on. There will also be a decline of 83 million jobs in that same time period. In essence, we are going to lose more jobs than we gain. And to be clear, this data represents a job market across the entire world. Sometimes people hear about the issue of joblessness and mentally relegated to certain countries or think that it only applies to developing regions. But wealthier economies are not immune to the changing winds. In fact, Jack Kelly, a senior contributor for Forbes, wrote an article in 2023 summarizing a study by Goldman Sachs that predicts that 300 million jobs will be lost because of artificial intelligence. Kelly puts the issue bluntly in the article, writing that if generative A.I. lives up to its hype, the workforce in the United States and Europe will be upended. This is a global issue, but it is not unsolvable. Many of our brothers and sisters around the world have been fighting this battle already, and they have been winning, especially in areas where joblessness is not a new problem.

Richard Cunningham Welcome back, everyone. All right. Let’s dive into today’s conversation. We have got a couple of just extraordinary seasoned builders. And while Justin Foreman and I are both in the state of Texas, I’m in Austin and Justin is up in the DFW area. We are traveling across the world for this one as we have Keren Pybus of Ethical Apparel Africa, located in West Africa. And Ronald Ishak of Hacktiv8 coming to us from Jakarta, Indonesia. So what a joy to have so many geographies and time zones covered. Friends. Ronald, we’ll start with you. Welcome to the podcast. Thanks for being with us.

Ronald Ishak Thanks for having me.

Richard Cunningham It’s fun. Yeah, absolutely. And Keren, you as well. Hey, let’s do this to kind of help set the stage. How about a 30 to 60 second kind of intro and background from each of you personally and professionally? And then we’ll get going.

Keren Pybus Okay. Hi, I’m Keren, and I’m the CEO of Ethical Apparel Africa and the co founder. We are seeking to create jobs in West Africa through ethical apparel manufacturing. We have a factory there and work with multiple other factories as well to create jobs through an ethical way of manufacturing clothing where we put all of our profits back into the workers and worker empowerment and creating the best place to work. We want to do it on a large scale, so we’re mainly exporting to the US and a bit to the UK and Europe. I’ve been in the textile and fashion industry for 30 years, so it’s my passion and my love all together.

Ronald Ishak Yeah. And I’m Ronald Ishak and I do have debate. I’ve been building this for the last eight years. I founded it and leading it as CEO. We’re basically a program that turns absolute beginners into job ready developers. And 12 to 16 weeks and then help them find jobs not just in Indonesia, but also around the world as well. And so, Dan, we’ve trained today up to 50,000 people through our multiple programs, from bootcamps to corporate training programs to video based courses and things like that. And it’s been a fun and exciting journey just to see people from a stage where they’re very insecure, where they are, to see them thrive and succeed using just the power of technology. So thanks for having me.

Richard Cunningham Yeah, it’s great to have both you guys on. It’s been fun to capture both of your stories in different ways. So for our listeners here, they’re dialing in. There’s two great video stories capturing both of the journeys here. And so be sure to check that out either on the Solving the World’s Greatest Problems website or faith driven investor websites. But Keren, I was hoping that maybe you could kind of kick us off here when we talk about solving some of the world’s greatest problems. Oftentimes we think about maybe aid and we think about charity. We think about the different ways that nonprofits step in to solve some of these problems. But I would love for you to just kind of cast the vision of like when people say a job is created. We hear that in our report here in the West. We might hear that in a jobs report varies around the world. But when a job is created, when that’s happened, can you just kind of give us kind of some of the perspective of what that does, either for a family or for a community and just the ways that that has such a ripple effect beyond just even that one individual job?

Keren Pybus Yeah, definitely. I think for us it was really about giving people sustainability and giving people security. And when you’re working in an environment where there’s a huge amount of informal employment and lots of opportunities for informal employment, it doesn’t give us stability. And that’s really what creating these jobs is doing, not just for the individual but also for their family. And quite often they can be the breadwinner or maybe 1 or 2 breadwinners in the family, which means that they can provide a really basic level. They’re providing food, they’re providing housing, they’re providing amenities, they’re providing a lifestyle. There’s even beyond just those basics for those people. But it means that they can rely on it. They can save for their futures. They can you know, in Africa, saving for your funeral fund is a really big, huge deal. And at the same time, they can have support and things that are going to enable them to live their lives in a secure way, too. So whether that’s the health insurance that comes with it or whether it’s other things like the free lunch that they get, which means that they don’t have to then feed themselves, you know, a big meal again later on because they’ve had a really big meal at lunchtime or something like that. So it’s more than just a job. It’s about creating a a way that people have security and sustainability for them and for their family.

Richard Cunningham Let’s talk about that a little bit more. When you talk about the family work, what does that look like? Because I love where you’re going with this, because, you know, when we talk about solving the world’s greatest problems, the website, we talk about 30 of the problems, we talk about some of the different ones, and we talk about fracturing families. We talk about health care, we talk about anxiety. We talk about hunger, we talk about homelessness. We talk about all these different things. And I think that you’re taking us some places, but specifically with the family. Can you talk about the confidence or the ways that the family is able to thrive when you have that consistency of employment?

Keren Pybus Yeah, in a lot of developing countries and culturally. So a family stays together, so you will have generations of family living together. It’s not always true. We’ve got people that are in our factories that are in their 20s living on their own. So it doesn’t necessarily mean that, but sometimes they’ll also travel in and they’ll have families living in villages elsewhere. And so you’re not just providing for your own disposable income, you’re providing for a network of people that are reliant on you. Now, we’re very fortunate in Ghana that education is free up to the age of 18, so that’s not necessarily a factor. But that’s not true in many, many countries where people are having to pay for education. So you’re paying for that next generation that you may be paying for a younger sibling to go through university, for example, to create opportunities for that person for the future. You may be supporting health care with one of your older relatives that maybe would have just necessarily died younger for no reason at all if they hadn’t been able to access that health care that you are able to do. You’re providing also in a lot of situations, people to be able to stand on their own if they’re in a really bad situation. Domestic abuse, adultery, anything like that, which means somebody needs to be able to go out on their own. They can do that. They can support themselves being able to they can remove themselves from a dangerous situation because they’ve got the security of that job and the security of not just the job. And I think what’s really important within this and. Maybe we’ll come onto this later. It is not about just a job. It’s about that job being worthwhile, sustainable, safe, and a place that they can have a family within that job environment as well as their family that’s outside of that. So it takes away a lot of that. What if what can I do? That kind of thing? And it creates people honestly. We’ve noticed a real shift into from short term thinking into long term thinking. They’re not just thinking about what’s going to happen the next day. What do I need to spend my money on for the next day? They’re thinking about what can I do for the future? How can I change my living accommodation? How can I provide for my sibling to do this or whatever? And because they’ve got the security of longevity.

Richard Cunningham Keren That’s incredible context and setting the stage, we’re going to come back to you in a number of points you just unpacked. But let’s go over to Ron real quickly and kind of hear some of the initial context as well. And your camp, Ron, because for lack of better terms, you’ve created a coding school that takes individuals and gives them the ability to access so many various different types of work across Asia. And so we’d love to hear kind of some of this from your perspective and activate.

Ronald Ishak So I think like what comes to mind to me is thinking about the minimum wage in Indonesia. You know, in US dollar terms, like a month salary here in Indonesia is equivalent to about $400, and that’s the formal one, right? And then so there’s a lot more informal people taking jobs like, you know, selling things on the street and things like that. It might be a lot, lot less motorcycle delivery drivers perhaps. And so when we think about what we can unlock by, you know, teaching people how to code, it’s really unlocking not just, you know, to go beyond the minimum wage of what’s possible, but also being able to cross political boundaries, people to be able to work somewhere, you know, Singapore to Australia, where the minimum wage is, you know, significantly higher, the pay is significantly better. And then on top of that, as a software developer, they can just do so much more to the point that, you know, when those opportunities are unlocked, you know, somebody can suddenly, you know, support their entire family and just do incredible, incredible things.

Richard Cunningham So talk a little bit about that, Ron, because I think here’s one of the things that we think about. We think sometimes we create a job and it’s like a static thing and we’ve created it and like we’ve added to the count and. All right, good. Well, let’s go on to be creating the next one. But yet we live in this inflationary environment. We live in these places where the costs continue to go up, where we figure out some of these different things that are happening. And even in your business, when you talk about coding and teaching coding, that’s always changing. You’re always having to upgrade, you’re always having to change. I would imagine, you know, artificial intelligence, machine learning that’s changed and pushed you guys to figure out, okay, how does that change for us? So how has something like that forced you guys to continually be upskilling and innovating?

Ronald Ishak I think A.I. has really changed my business quite a lot. You know, it’s kind of like giving somebody a calculator, right? You know, it increases the productivity significantly. And then so we’ve had to upgrade our programs to help people sort of adapt to all these new tools for us to produce more output in just much shorter periods of time. But I think one of the challenges being a school is kind of like just like giving somebody a calculator. You want them to learn the math first before they just use, you know, just the buttons and press the equals and then have the results fit out. And so, you know, those might be some of the initial challenges. But I think like, you know, once it’s enabled people to just be significantly more productive, like ten x more productive, I think it’s just amazing what it unlocks.

Richard Cunningham And tosses out openly to both of you guys. We often talk about entrepreneurs that things have changed and for entrepreneurs that I guess we’d put it this way the hero of the problems of the world years ago often was like the celebrity cause it was the big concert, it was big business, it was aid, it was all of that. And now, as we’ve been talking about, like, it’s changed and people are noticing job creation, they’re noticing economics, they’re noticing the important sustainability. How have you guys seen that not just being noticed by the church, but just maybe other like local city governments, municipalities? How are you seeing opportunities to partner just with the broader ecosystem of investors, NGOs? How are you seeing some of this kind of come into play where people are saying, man, you’re solving a problem and that we have a shared vision of making sure that there’s growth in that? I mean, because here in Texas, I mean, people are recruiting businesses left and right. We are trying to just harness economic development left and right. How are you guys seeing that in your context? How are you seeing other people value the job creation potential of entrepreneurs?

Keren Pybus I think the biggest change for me is actually being with the big donor agencies. So where a lot of US aid or the Foreign Commonwealth Development Office or Jay-Z or Solidaridad, those people’s money went into pure aid. And there’s still some very, very important elements of that part of it. They have shifted huge budgets into trade facilitation, which in turn creates jobs. Because you’re creating manufacturing in different places. And it’s not just about creating market linkages. It’s about funding to create capacity building, create technical skills, create career path, create opportunities for locals. So for us, you know, we’re trying to create a textile industry in Ghana that, you know, really has a huge, deep roots in a lot of very traditional manufacturing but doesn’t have the experience of doing it to international standards or international compliance standards. We have to bring in a lot of expats to do a lot of those things, to be in with a lot of skills training to be able to pass on that knowledge. One of the big things with the donor agencies is how do we pass that skills to the locals so that it doesn’t become reliant on an expat type of business. But actually you’re upskilling the locals. So I’d say the donor agencies have really changed their mindset around that, which means that there’s a lot more money available to get grants and things to be able to kick start some of these programs or to be able to work with programs and work with investors as well. So a lot of it’s also then linked to how are investors going to work with it. So there’s a lot of match funding available to. So if you got an investor that’s going to work alongside you, then the donor agency will match that funding, which makes it really attractive for an investor as well because they’re getting a great deal for that money. So I think the donor agencies definitely wrong.

Richard Cunningham What would you say to that?

Ronald Ishak You know, I think for me, like looking back in the last few years, you know, I think one of the big things to sort of happened was the pandemic. But one of the things that come out of that for us is actually building this thing called the Association of Digital Talents Training of Indonesia. And so this is a collaboration effort between me and my competitors, but then sort of working for the greater good, working closer to the government. We now have a channel to work with together with them, sort of see why we need more talent in the marketplace that knows how to use technology. And also thinking that, you know, ever since the pandemic, sort of the acceleration of a lot of these traditional companies suddenly coming to become digital, you know, the need of talent for digital in Indonesia has spiked quite a lot. And then so now, you know, the government is more receptive to sort of like, okay, you know, let’s start to build standards so that we can scale this faster. Let’s create some protections here and there. So I think that has sort of been this shift that I see in the last few years for us.

Richard Cunningham Ron, I wanted to push into something you said there. When you’re talking about change, you’re making change. You just said that you weren’t going about it on your own, but you were linking arms with even some of your competitors. How would that change the dynamic? How has the conversation changed within that? There’s something unique there that oftentimes competition is a funny word, especially in the church. What are you learning through that process?

Ronald Ishak You know, one of the most unique parts about this association is sort of how it sort of came together as well. You know, I remember in the middle of the pandemic, you know, everybody was stressed out. My competitors were stressed out. And we actually got in a Zoom call together and we ended up praying together, funny enough, and sort of that relationship of just, you know, instead of seeing each other as competitors, sort of as like, hey, we got to survive this together so that we can come out of this, you know, we’ll be stronger together. It really started out of that. And then so that relationship was built out, you know, over the next 2 to 3 years. We only set up the association this year, sort of putting all of the competitors together, working for a greater good. I think that’s the beauty of working in education. It’s not trying to kill each other. It’s not trying to like, you know, winner takes all type of game. But then with education, you know, it’s kind of like we can help enlarge the pie. We can create more opportunities. So it’s been cool to sort of see that roll out, especially because I’ve been in the field of like, you know, building startups, trying to kill each other and things like that. But then in education, it’s just like, Hey, we’re here, you know, for the greater good type thing. And so it’s a cool collaboration. I think it’s something cool to observe.

Keren Pybus I would add to that too, because I think you’re absolutely right. We work with multiple different factories across Ghana and trying to bring all of their different skills, and they are technically all competitors. But for a buyer coming into the country, they don’t want to come into the country and buy from one factory. They want to be able to come in and make the trip worthwhile. They want to be able to buy from multiple factories. So if those factories can work together in terms of finding their own unique selling points, what is the thing that makes them specific? It might be a type of machinery they’ve got. It might be a type of product they’re making. It might be a particular type of market that they’re serving. They can all then layer together and work together with things. Then you create something that is more attractive from a trade perspective as well, and you’re not working against each other. You’re putting your energies into working together. So I think there’s huge value in as Christians leading that and being people that don’t put the competition factor first is something that sometimes does make us different within a marketplace as well.

Richard Cunningham A tide that raises all boats, if you will need to hear you both riff on that. All right. Well, hey, I want to get you almost personal in this aspect of it. Keren, maybe you at the job creation, Ron, you with almost the job upskilling. Can you think about a specific story or stories of some lives that you’ve seen, people that you’ve been fortunate enough to employ or maybe Ron, you’ve seen come through your program and just kind of the effects and this the transformation that you’ve witnessed take place in a particular live or lives. Keren, I’ll start with you.

Keren Pybus Yeah, sure. If you watch the video of Africa about Africa, you’ll see a girl who Florence, who’s profiled on there and Florence came to us as an operator not hugely long out of school, and we saw a skill set in her in terms of her ability to think outside the box, her ability to embrace technology. And we put a lot of effort and work into creating different skill sets with her. So first, full motor skills on different machinery, teaching her all the basics of sewing and moving her through the kind of ranks, putting us into some external training around pattern creation. And she is now the assistant person manager in the factory, and she’s gone from, in her family kind of being somebody that is part of that family environment to being one of the major breadwinners in that family, ensuring that her grandmother could get the health care that she needed. And so seeing individuals like that moving through is just really exciting. A warehouse manager came same, similar saying Raphael came through the ranks, really try some different things and we’re just able to hone those skills and and I think they then act as role models to others in the factory because yeah we need to bring in a lot of expert expertise and everything else. But sometimes we as expats can be almost out of reach for the locals. They can’t identify with how they can get there, how they can develop that skill set. And especially when you’re trying to teach not just a technical thing, you’re trying to teach people to think outside the box. You’re trying to get them to think horizontally and vertically and problem solving. You’re trying to, you know, look at different attitudes to work towards work and those kind of things. You’re trying to teach all of those things, not just the if you sit at this machine and press this button, it’s going to do this type thing. And so by seeing other Ghanaians that have moved through the factory and move through the industry into other things and to other roles and progress and seen how their lifestyle changes as an impact or how they then steward the resources that God has given them. It inspires other people and inspires others to look at it and to take that job and think, this isn’t just about coming in and working your 8 to 5 shift. This is actually about something that could be more than this and creating something for themselves as well as their family.

Richard Cunningham What would you like to happen on that?

Ronald Ishak I think, you know, when I think about the stories that we there’s so many I think the one that I always come back to is this guy. You know, whether you’re one of our alumni who has sort of joined our program during the pandemic, in the video there, a whole section of it in there where they get to interview him. But it’s just a cool story to sort of see somebody from a motorcycle delivery driver that had dropped out of school, couldn’t afford to pay for his university degrees, sort of join Activate, took up our income share agreement program where he didn’t have to pay anything now, but then he would pay later after he would get a job from the Activate program. Sort of just see that transformation and that just sort of even wanting to see it all the way till the day where he sort of jump from one job to another job and just seeing his career progress, it’s always like exciting, you know, to sort of just give somebody the tools to build and then sort of see what they can build from that. And I think what’s really cool as well is also seeing him, you know, volunteering to be able to teach some of the Activate classes as well, you know, sometimes as a guest lecturer and things like that. I think it’s just heartwarming to sort of see once you sort of help somebody overcome that deep insecurity or that one thing and then the amount of gratitude that they have afterwards, I think it’s just amazing.

Richard Cunningham Great thoughts. Very grateful for the work that both of you guys are doing. We often say that business has the opportunity to create redemption or to create brokenness. We can run businesses in ways that can further some of the very problems that we’re trying to prevent. Or we can step into those dark spots and be light and that can be that redemptive tool. So one of the things that we do with solving the world’s greatest problems is try to make the complex accessible to try to help people take that first step. And so I would love for you guys as we close here to give just kind of a word of advice. If you’ve got an investor or an entrepreneur that’s listening to this for the first time listening to this and they’re hearing for the first time in some ways that jobs can be some of the upstream solutions to some of the world’s greatest problems. Maybe in the past, everything that they thought about, they’ve been thinking about the giving pocket and the giving side of things. And they’re starting to see that really all comes from one pocket, whether it’s giving or it’s investing, it’s all the resources that we’ve been entrusted. So they’re coming to that place and they’re throwing their hands up saying, I want to know more. I want you guys to speak. Maybe there’s an article, maybe there’s a. Maybe there’s a moment, maybe there’s scripture, something on each of your journeys that really kind of is the moment where the lightbulb turned on for you and you realized, wow, this has an opportunity for this is is just as much ministry and impact as some of the traditional things in the traditional viewpoints. So for listeners out there, where should they start? What’s a good place for them? What’s a good article or something to go through? Keren. I’ll turn to you first. What would you encourage people to do to take their step to explore further?

Keren Pybus Well, that’s quite a big question. I think for me, right at the beginning, I think where your passion and your skills meet is often where your calling is. And I think just because you’re really passionate about something doesn’t mean you have to necessarily give up on it. So if there’s an industry that you’re passionate about, you’ve got skills in that industry. Embracing and seeing what you can do in that industry is really important. My kind of big changing moment, I guess, was reading the John Ortberg book, If you want to walk on the water, you’ve got to get out of the boat. And just knowing that actually you’re never going to solve it or you’re going to get out of that boat and there’s going to be moments where you’re sinking and moments when you don’t know what you’re doing, but fixing your eyes on Jesus and just keeping that kind of like one thing has been really good. I think a learning for us, particularly when you’re thinking about job creation, is making sure that within there your recruitment policies and the process for bringing people on board is really thorough and robust. You don’t have to kind of shy away from that just because you’re trying to give all these jobs to people. You know, we’ve got people queuing up outside the factory every day looking for work. I can’t give a job to everybody and solve all of the world’s joblessness. And so it’s about getting the right people, praying through that, but also creating what are the right tests. Interview stage. How do you test for attitude, for behavior as much as technical skills? How do you give people that proper training that gives them the chance to swim at the beginning and not just sink because you bring somebody in the new pulse so much things on and that they can’t actually cope with it. How do you hold people’s hands through that? How do you give them the life skills training that goes along the side, the jobs training as well, so that, you know, most of the people that we’ve employed have never had a formal job in their life before. So even just the concept of turning up to work on time every day at the same time every day is a completely alien concept. And so explaining the why for a lot of these things, as well as the what becomes really important and for investors. You know, we had a moment, I guess we went on the marketplace very early on in our kind of FDI journey. And we have an incredible investor, Jeff, who you will see on our video. I’ll name him because he’s on the video. So you’ll see him anyway, who saw at the beginning of vision for this and saw also that you’ve got to go through a training cycle when you’re creating jobs and you’re not creating income while you’re training. And so having money to pay those salaries and be able to support those people and create that whilst maybe they’re not creating value for your organization because you’re in a training environment, but you need to do that is where investment becomes really important because having that cash in to be able to do that and then to be able to support those people through that training environment as you then are able to then turn that their work and their things into output for the business later on becomes this really important marriage between what the investors can do and what the entrepreneurs can do. So I’d say go for it. Find your passion for your skills, putting together, pray about it and jump out of the boat.

Richard Cunningham Richard We should have just started in in the podcast right there. We should just hand the mic to Keren. Gotten out of the way. I mean, that’s. Aaron. That’s going to be tough to top, man, but that was really good.

Ronald Ishak That was really good. I think, you know, for me, thinking back, like the last, gosh, eight years, I think that the journey of Building Activate came with a lot of insecurities. You know, it came with a lot of doubt for me. But I remember somebody telling me, you know, God doesn’t call the qualified, but he qualifies the call. And I think like that really put it into perspective for me to remember what I need to lean on. But this time, where when there’s things that I can’t do, I need to pray about it. And sort of just seeking God in every moment of building something and sort of just, you know, looking back now, it’s just being a maze of what, you know, putting and leading on God was able to do. And so I think, you know, there’s listeners out there sort of thinking about, you know, I want to build something, know I want to create more jobs in the marketplace. And I believe that if God has planted that in your heart and that’s something that you step out in faith to do, that I really do believe that God can use that for his kingdom and for his glory.

Richard Cunningham Man Great words from both you guys. So grateful for the wisdom. I love what you’re talking about. Keren, is this as you talk about this idea that you can’t give a job to everyone, and in those moments you have your heart tugging your head, kind of wrestling through that. There’s still sequence, there’s a process. There’s still best practice. This is to learn from love the perspective. What you’re talking about, Ron, is we’re always learning. We’re always learning to upskill. We’re always learning to that. And even as much like what you hit on there at the end as independent and as driven as we are, that we really at our core are designed to be dependent. And that is a weird, weird thing for an entrepreneur to face and wrestle with daily. So grateful for Wisdom listeners that you are dialing into this. Here’s my encouragement. You might be feeling this thought of man. I want to explore this more, but I don’t know where to go. I don’t know where to start. There’s some great resources. John Edwards book. I love the thought of just kind of getting out of the boat, a way to get out of the boat. And way to step into this is to have a conversation with other like minded entrepreneurs or other like minded investors. And so Richard, myself and others on the team of all been a part of leading different faith driven entrepreneur and faith through an investor groups they meet either in person or online. But if you’re an investor and you really wrestling with this idea and thinking, man, God, give me some capital or family, some capital to entrust to invest in the businesses that are upstream of this or to give to some of those organizations that are helping facilitate some of the job creation, whatever that might look like. My encouragement would be is to check out the Solving the World’s Greatest Problems website, but then check out one of these faith driven investor groups. There are some just robust conversations that are taking place there. And as Richard can attest to, there’s a lot of like minded investors that are meeting each other for the first time, realizing that that passion that God has placed in you, there are others that share that passion. And when you connect with them, man, it changes everything. Richard, any closing thoughts for us as we come to a wrap? And I think the thing I would say is Ron, Keren, just knowing some of your stories and your journeys, you’re both backed by faith driven investors. And I can just imagine maybe just a quick word on that. As a faith driven entrepreneur building something, stepping out of the boat, what an encouragement is to have like minded values on the cap table, am I right?

Keren Pybus 100%. It’s been an absolute privilege and just a faith building thing when when people just cool you up off the back of a podcast or a back of a video and go, I love what you’re doing and I feel that goes calling me to work with you and you just like, Wow, this is just incredible for people like on the opposite side of the world that maybe I’ve never even visited the country you’re working in to want to go on that journey. And so I’m really grateful for anyone that’s invested in ethical apparel, Africa or anybody that wants to in the future as well. And it has been incredible witness to, you know, we don’t employ all Christians. And so for the team to see the amount of Christian investors that we have on as well has been also a really amazing witness as well. And for those that have managed to come and visit and see what you do. So yeah, get on the train. It’s a great one to be on.

Ronald Ishak Absolutely. I think like I remember the times, you know, when things are difficult and when you get your investors to pray together with you, I think it’s just so empowering. So, yeah, I’m just so grateful for that.

Richard Cunningham Some Brownie Shack activate out of Jakarta, Indonesia. Keren Pybus of Ethical Apparel, Africa and Ghana. What a fun episode. What a joy to have you both on for a special faith. You’re an entrepreneur and faith driven investor kind of release episode looking at solving the world’s greatest problems. For Justin Foreman, I’m Richard Cunningham. Thank you so much for joining us. Friends. We will catch you next time.

Narrator We are grateful for the opportunity to serve this community and see your listeners come in for more than 100 countries Faith driven investing can be a lonely journey, but it doesn’t have to be. The best way to stay connected is to join a group study with other investors looking to get the same answers, the questions you have and find great community as they do so there’s no cost, no catch. In person or online, you can meet an hour a week with other peers from your backyard or the other side of the world. You can also stay connected by signing up for our monthly newsletter and faith driven investing Dawg. This podcast wouldn’t be possible without the help of many of our friends. Executive Producer Justin Foreman. Intro mixed and arranged by Summer Drags Audio and Editing by Richard Barley. Our theme song is Sweet Ever After by Ellie Holcomb.

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Ever wondered where the next great investment opportunities lie beyond the familiar US markets? In this episode, the Pragma Advisors team reveals groundbreaking research showing less than 3% of faith-driven funds are deployed outside the US, highlighting a massive opportunity in frontier markets. Through stories of transformation and practical insights, they explore how investors can make an eternal impact while seeking returns in underserved regions. This episode challenges listeners to think differently about risk, return, and the role of faith-driven capital in building sustainable businesses in the world’s most overlooked markets.

Join Richard Cunningham and John Coleman as they examine frontier markets and the 2024 Pramga Investment Market Study alongside Patrick Lowndes, Andrew Winker, and Tamanno Hodjihanova

View the full report here: https://www.pragmaadvisors.com/investment-study

Episode Transcript

You’re listening to Faith Driven Investor, a podcast that highlights voices from a growing movement of Christ, following investors who believe that God owns it all and cares deeply about the heart posture behind our stewardship. Thanks for listening. Hey everyone. All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Hosted guests may maintain positions in the companies of securities discussed, and this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization. Thanks for listening.

Richard Cunningham Welcome back, everyone, to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor podcast. A joy to have you with us whenever and wherever you are catching this episode. It’s the end of October 2020 for its marks on the Markets Pod. The guy we featured on our last Mark’s In the Markets podcast is in the studio with me, our co-host John Kuhlman. And John was talking domestic markets, kind of US public markets, broader economic thoughts in the midst of an election year, federal, you know, rate cuts, things of that nature. And John, we’re doing something different today, which I’m really excited about because I know we’re going to talk about a subject that is particularly top of mind and top of heart for many inside the Faith Driven Investor community. And we’re going to zoom in on different markets, and that’s frontier in emerging markets. So, John, how are you, man? Good to have you in the podcast studio. And we’ll get to introduce our guests here shortly.

John Coleman Yeah, Richard, I’m doing really well. Obviously, this is a topic near and dear to each of our hearts, the heart of our friend Henry Kaestner, who’s spending a ton of his time thinking about developing markets and frontier markets now. And I’m really excited to look into this. It also gets us out of the echo chamber of the US election and interest rate movements for the time being, so we can think a little more broadly. So it should be a lot of fun.

Richard Cunningham Isn’t that the truth? And so we’ve got the Pragma advisors team here with us. It’s a full house. Patrick Tamano Andrew Just some leaders in the FDA space. Friends. I want you all to introduce yourselves and you’re going to start with you. And then also, Patrick, when we come back to you, maybe some of the origin stories as to how this crew came together to put together this particular pragma investment market study for 2020 for Patrick to make sure is.

Patrick Lowndes Man Well, thank you so much for having me and my team here, Richard and John. This is really exciting to get to feature some of this research and some of what we’ve been up to for, gosh, almost six years now. And from the Seattle area, it was five lovely kids, happily married and coming out of the software industry, but really becoming a generalist across a lot of different kinds of companies. And so a lot of my work and just following the work of really what God is up to in some of the hardest parts of the world to do business now is just drawn, my team and I here to research and canvas the market and so I can share a little bit more about the origin story in a sack. But yeah, we’re we’re pumped to be here.

Andrew Winker Great. Well, I can jump in. Yeah, it’s great to be on the podcast. I’m calling in from Houston today. My wife and I are Houston, been here for for several years. My passion for this space first started right when I was getting ready to enter the workforce. So like most millennials, I had some kind of vague idea of impact in my head, but didn’t really know where to direct that. So right before I entered the workforce, I took a class called Perspectives through my local church and really just opened my eyes to the global nature of God’s kingdom, you know, the intersection of the unity of the body of Christ, the diversity of the body of Christ, and mutually how we partner together. And I realized that I really want to dedicate my life to building that kingdom, not my own. So that, somewhat unnaturally maybe led me into consulting. But one of the things that led me to jump into that field, I started my career at a Bain and company out of school, and I really loved solving problems alongside tight knit teams of people. Some of the things that gave me the most joy. So the natural evolution of that for me is I’ve gone throughout the first kind of seven, eight years of my careers thinking about what problems exist in the world today, that I want to really put my shoulder behind solving, and then to who do I want to do that alongside? So right now I’ve that that’s led me a couple of different places. Right now I’m in a fun place where I’m getting to pursue work kind of through a portfolio career, doing a couple of different things, looking at work at the intersection of one redemptive business to radical generosity of capital and then three frontier markets. And I’m like the ones we’re looking at. So Paragon was a great fit for that and excited to kind of be a part of the team with Patrick and tomorrow.

Tamanno Hodjihanova Yeah, I love it. Well, my friends, I’m Tamanno. I was originally born in Uzbekistan, so a big part of my passion for Frontier and emerging markets is because I’m a part of the people that will never get to hear right unless we have development and capital and things that are working in those areas and markets for the gospel and and the end for flourishing and what that looks like. I’m calling in from Dallas, Texas. I went to a small little school here and have stayed in the area close to my local church and do a couple of different things. Part of my work is with the Lion’s Den and help with a big part of that event, and it’s happening in April every year. And then also recently jumped on with a financial advisor, Rachel McDonough, and work alongside her at Wall Square to really connect the head and the heart of investing. Right. How do we take the values that we know that we are called to as believers? And what does it look like in the ways that we do capital?

Richard Cunningham Fantastic. So as you can hear, we’ve got some experts in the crowd. Get tech entrepreneur, tech investor, Bain consultant with that kind of structured consulting background and then to mano with her roots with Lion’s Den, Rachel McDonough, who’s been such a key leader in this space in terms of helping advisors and Faith Driven Investor get in the game. And so I’m going to set up a little bit of context on this study. And one of the key things I want to note is this. Study we’re talking about from pragma, there are 2024 kind of frontier in emerging markets investment study. It will be available in the show notes for you to download. And then today’s kind of topic is going to really be unpacking it. But the reason this is so important is when you look at US public markets, thanks to folks like Tim McCready and the work of Bright Light and his team, among many others, it’s pretty easy to go get your arms around the size and kind of the scope and breadth of the Faith Driven Investor movement ecosystem because of reporting standards. Now it gets far more difficult even in established domestic markets here in the US and the private space to understand how large is the faith driven investing ecosystem as we think about venture capital or private equity or private credit, among other asset classes. And you’ll get where I’m going with this, because if it’s difficult in the US, imagine how tough it is to kind of grasp and get a sense of when you go into not only international markets but frontier in emerging developing markets internationally. And that’s the noble and honorable work of our friends here at Pragma who said, Hey, we want to go find who are the fund managers, who are the kind of people captivated by the love of Jesus who understand that redemptive and good business can be a force for good in places where that otherwise might not exist. And so that’s what our friends are going to be unpacking here today. And Patrick, with that in mind, would love some more of the origin story, how this crew here came together, what the Lord originally put on your heart and why Pragma came into existence and kind of some of the your origin story. And then we’re going to get into the research.

Patrick Lowndes And that’s excellent. So a little bit of background. It was, again, like I said about six years ago when pragma started, but even before that, probably for now 15 years I’ve been that the Lord’s called me to be really generous towards NGOs bringing transformation of all different kinds in these tough parts of the world. So my eyes been here when I realized that God’s heart includes all people all over the world, and especially the ones that are overlooked. We like to send, you know, a lot of our work to where there’s already a foundation. There’s already, you know, a strong presence of believers and Christians. And so I’ve been very much motivated to say, well, hey, where where haven’t we gone yet? And so six years ago, we started getting together. Probably about 15 people started circling together at a conference and we said, How do we get together and encourage each other more often? Maybe do some small investments together? How do we help outside of like these conference highs that we typically get? I think we’ve all been to one of those conferences where we’re like, Well, now what? Right? So we started getting together and shortly after we started getting together, I had a pretty big exit event and sold my first software company to ServiceNow. And all of a sudden, you know, at the ripe age of 30, I had this pile of cash that I was like, Wow, what am I supposed to do with this now, Lord? And so I began kind of canvasing the market, figuring out who is putting capital in these parts of the world that I care about. And to be honest, the list was not very long. I mean, John, fortunately, sovereigns is one of the short listed names there that we had, but it wasn’t I think it was 17 funds and sources of capital that first year in 2019 when we did the research. And then over the years it’s blossomed and grown. And that word, yeah, I think I’ll just say that word pragma advisors. It comes from this, you know, the parable and in Luke 19 where Jesus is saying this master said to his servants, Go put this money to work. So we’re very interested in like, how can we put our money, our talent, our skills to work? And you know, what that’s blossomed into is this focus on the frontier in emerging markets. Starting from only 17 funds. A few years ago, we analyzed more than 100 funds. So praise God for just the movement and the momentum behind the growth in this space. You know, Richard, we can get into some of the details on like how we selected, you know, what we looked at. But I just want to tell that little bit of backstory so people know kind of the origin of where we all started from.

Richard Cunningham And then you guys have an interesting definition for Frontier in emerging markets, I think is also helpful to kind of level set before we get going into the research is just like as your team thinks about defining frontier in emerging markets, oftentimes that can be just an economic calculation as to like a country’s GDP or whatnot. And what they’re doing kind of from an economic marketplace or mindset. How is the team thought about that as before we kind of get into the research for kind of the geographic landmass for what we’re talking about.

Patrick Lowndes Yeah, excellent question. Yeah, we hear this a lot and I think there’s a few angles where we can commonly look at this and I’m going to break it into three parts to make it simple. So the first one is economically frontier, right? So they’re not a Tier one market still very much developing are on the world scene. It’s frontier and it’s growing. There’s a lot of potential and there’s usually a reason why it’s not a Tier one market. And that gets to the second issue in frontier and emerging markets, which there tends to be some social, you know, political instability, you know, I’ll say destabilizing factors that make these markets more difficult to do business, more difficult to flourish. That’s why they’re not Tier one markets. And so I think a lot of people have said, hey, I want to go where it’s economically. They’re not doing well and I want to solve social issues. And we totally agree. Like, let’s do that. I mean, I love where the movement’s gone and. Sub-Saharan Africa. Also out in Southeast Asia. That third piece that matters to us in our research and as we are kind of evaluating which funds to include, because is this question of where do people only have a very small fraction of a percent of Christians that are living and doing work? Because as Christians were called to be a blessing to our own community? Right. That’s part of what God has asked us to do. But if there’s like less than 2%, 1%, a fraction, then it’s really hard for people to get a taste in a relational way of who Jesus is or what is his kingdom like. And so we’re really interested in places basically where there’s very few Christians because we feel like that’s truly the frontier from a spiritual perspective. In addition to the economic and the social frontiers that we’re also tackling. So is that helpful?

John Coleman Yeah. And I want to follow up there, Patrick, because I think what you all have articulated so far is the impact thesis for Frontier in emerging markets meaning and especially the distinctively faith driven impact you’re articulating how do we help a portion of the world develop or stabilize that’s unstable or developing? How do we, in the process of that, share the gospel, be a good neighbor, demonstrate the love of Jesus? The third question I always have, though, is kind of is there an economic or commercial case for this? And I know there are risks inherent in frontier in emerging markets, obviously, but do you believe there’s kind of a commercial or an economic case for investors to feel rosy, not just the impact that they can have, but potentially about the return profile?

Patrick Lowndes Yeah, absolutely, John. And I don’t want to steal too much thunder from my team as we’re going to get into some of that in the report and kind of what the different categories of financial and commercial return. So that’s certainly something we’re going to hit on. The little bit that I’ll say is, you know, some people look at a new market and they get excited about opportunity. Right? But I’d say most people that haven’t done an investment overseas or in a fund overseas, they are usually waiting for a later stage company. They’re waiting for a lower risk because I don’t want to lose it. In other words, I’ve got my grip pretty tight on fear of loss. Right? And that’s the reason why we don’t see people put in half their portfolio necessarily in these markets. Right. We’re talking about a smaller chunk, but there is an increasing amount of opportunity. There’s another type of investor that looks at these markets and says, wow, I can go after non consumption like the prosperity paradox talks about. I can go after non consumption in a market with kind of a venture capital sized return, but with a much more stable and profitable business because they’re just like no competition is for some of these things. So in a stable market, it’s really hard to get big returns unless you are like innovating and the only one doing it. Whereas in these other markets there’s a lot of whitespace. And so some investors and this is where we’re looking for more fund managers to come out, but some are really focused on where’s the whitespace and the big opportunity to scale. And that’s where there can be massive economic opportunity. And we’re starting to see more and more people analyzing their market like that, which is quite financially attractive.

Andrew Winker I think one thing I would add there, Patrick, it’s a great point. Really, I would take like a macro lens and a micro lens. I mean, if you look at kind of canvas the markets, we’re looking at like at the macro lens, you’re looking at two thirds of the world’s population, one third of the world’s GDP and only 10% of the world’s private capital. So just by that alone, a lot of these markets are just undercapitalized. You know, there’s a lot of kind of opportunity at that. But I think the caveat there is if you try and kind of cram that opportunity set into the just kind of pure worldly return maximization kind of mindset, it breaks a little bit because I don’t think what you can expect is to solve kind of all of those challenges on the typical ten year fund lifecycle to 20 mile, you know, So it kind of takes a different model. And I think there’s a real opportunity for the Body of Christ to lean in to some of that risk and think about redefining what does it really look like to see the Kingdom of God transcend in this kind of market with all the flourishing and blessing that that would entail? But I think that we kind of have to shed a lot of our traditional kind of risk paradigms in doing that while still maintaining a level of excellence.

Richard Cunningham I think we’re hitting on something important here. And I want to go to Tim on a real quick because she is our person who is has the frontier in emerging markets routes being from Uzbekistan originally. So how would you comment on this? And I know we’re kind of pushing off getting into the study. We’re going to get their promise. We’re kind of teasing it out further. But Tamara, I think it’s important to kind of get your commentary and then we’ll dive in.

Tamanno Hodjihanova Yeah, that’s great. I mean, maybe let’s go back. I didn’t hear the name Jesus until I came to the States. So I am one of the people who grew up in a region in a place of the world where the name of Jesus is rarely heard and continues to be the case for a big part of the world. And that is a big part of the reason that I think both my heart and. It’s hard as and learning to recognize that we as a body of Christ have a commission and a challenge to walk into the hard of places like this and redefine risk and look into a different way of investing to recognize that maybe yes, John, we’re maybe not in a place where we can have the same amount of return as you would hear in these markets or even in the public markets here. But there is a place in a space for us to lead out, to recognize that there is an opportunity here that we can both have spiritual, economic and social and environmental impact all at the same time. And we have gotten to see a big part of the organizations and the times that we’ve gotten to highlight, just even as Patrick mentioned, having 17 come to over 35 this year and see the movement of local leaders and international leaders working in these places and seeking to look at transformation differently, seeking to look at risk differently. I think there’s a lot to be said for how this space is changing and how it will continue to over the next couple of years as we get to see more capital and hope and pray that more capital would get deployed in these areas.

Richard Cunningham That leads to a lot of questions. So let’s dive in and let’s kind of go bottom line up front friends and maybe kind of when you look at this study from a 30,000 foot view, maybe major takeaways and also kind of some of the methodology of the study as well, because we’ve talked about the number of funds there are out there, the number of capital allocators and the people we can kind of go evaluate and get their sense of how they’re thinking about impact plus return is is it more concessionary? Is it fully market rate, whatever that might be? What was kind of the overall approach to the study? And then maybe kind of some of those larger takeaways and then we’ll dive into those as we go?

Patrick Lowndes Yeah. Andrew, would you like to maybe talk about we looked at more than 100 funds. What were some of the screening factors that we had? Because I think that while some people might look at the study and say, Hey, wait, you’re missing so-and-so. And I think it’s just good, maybe the level set with that. And then, yeah, we’ll jump into some of the high level themes, but would you mind hitting that for us?

Andrew Winker Yeah, no, I think that one of the things I had found into my brain for my consulting lifestyle was kind of what it means to take a hypothesis or a thesis driven approach, you know? So with that in mind, kind of our overall way we looked at this was just start off with a couple of relatively simple critical questions that we wanted to answer. So things like we already talked about a little bit, what do we mean by frontier markets? You know, who’s even participating in this space, who’s been doing work here? How much capital is being deployed? Where is it being deployed? What’s the target financial return of those investors. So we kind of set out with a couple of questions we wanted to answer. And then from there, it was a lot of kind of honestly, a lot of picking up, don’t you know, we did over 30, 40 kind of interviews to really get a kind of a bottoms up perspective of what’s going on in these markets. We supplemented that with a lot of secondary research. I mean, huge things. It was incredible to kind of go through the database that FDI has of these kinds of different funds in different places and get to supplement that with some primary research. So kind of a combo of both of those things. And we do want to celebrate. There’s a wide variety of approaches people have to this. Our particular criteria for when we were looking at funds was first and foremost sources of capital that are kind of led by Christians or followers of Jesus, focused on companies with Christian or Kingdom kind of led founders and leaders that are pursuing multiple bottom lines of impact and what they’re doing, and they’re deploying capital directly into companies. So those are the four kind of criteria we looked like. And that kind of frames up the who in the landscape that we’re looking at in the study.

Richard Cunningham Helpful. So we got Faith Driven Investor is deploying into Faith driven entrepreneurs direct investments. So the investor is kind of exercising their influence as being a shareholder on the company’s cap table. Good. Patrick, what else would you add?

Patrick Lowndes The thing that I was going to highlight were and you ask are like, what are the big takeaways? And this might be obvious, but just to state it and you’ll see it graphically in the study, just there’s a big uneven distribution of capital. We’re talking about less than 3% of funds in the space deployed outside of the US. And if you’re looking in, our target area tends to be North Africa and the Middle East and the better part of Asia. We’re talking about point 1% of funds that are intentionally deployed towards these kinds of markets. So I mean, we got a lot of headroom to grow in this space. But the second big takeaway that we had is just we talked with lots of fund managers. We talked with individual investors who are prolific in this part of the world. And another theme came up, John, it kind of begs it goes back to your question about what are your expectations? And so, you know, having the right expectations matters a lot. So this is the third time we’ve done this study. Some of our favorite reports that we do and the analysis is are two by two. And I’ll just take a second, Richard. I’ll just unpack that. So what we’ve got is this two by two looking at on the y axis going up the left side, we’ve got kind of geography. Where are you focused? Right. So again, the parts where capital is prolific and saturated, abundant, it’s on the bottom. And where it’s not abundant tends to be. On the top in our target area of focus. And then on the bottom is the target investor financial return. There’s about 44 funds that we analyze in this space. And you can see a nice gap of how much capital that’s being deployed. And what you’ll see when you look at that is just it’s pretty stark how tiny the dots are and the bubbles are that are deployed in these parts of the world. And then just as you kind of get to the more established parts of world, naturally that’s where more capital will be. So we think that’s a helpful way for people to understand who’s focusing on some of these harder to reach areas in the frontiers and how can I orient part of my own risk profile to try to maybe step into that, maybe to try to you know, this is called Faith Driven Investor. Like, where’s my faith? Am I going to invest only by risk adjusted returns, or am I actually going to invest in faith that maybe in sometimes makes me look like a fool, right? Am I willing to actually risk some of my own perception, you know, in the market to friends or my financial advisor? If I make some bets, that might look really risky. But to the kingdom of God, if you’re able to move the needle beyond just the financial, do you remember to move the needle on other areas? I mean, I had a CFO one time show me the IRR, you know, with looking at all the factors, all the bottom lines. And if you look at for all eternity, out to the right. The IRR numbers are ridiculous. If you truly do value those other kinds of impact as being real impact. So it’s just a very different way to look at investing in these parts of the world. So that two by two, I just give a shout out there, Richard. That’s usually our favorite. People say, I never knew where the money is going in the world.

John Coleman So let me dig into the topic with you also, as I mentioned to you guys, since we were chatting beforehand. I’ve spent a little bit of time in developing markets, worked in Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, had teams in the Middle East and Africa and Asia for a while. And, you know, there are a lot of legitimate challenges, I would say, that make excellence operating in emerging markets even more important than operating in U.S. markets. You know, on Faith Driven Investor, we often talk about trying to institutionalize the space such that people are investing because we’re really excellent at what we do, not just because we’re Christians. And I think the demand for that in emerging markets or frontier markets, and this is my personal opinion, can even be greater because I’ve also seen how destructive certain types of philanthropy and investment can be in emerging markets. There are legitimate concerns that entail real risk. People care about the security and safety of the people for which they have responsibility. Obviously, even regulations, anti-terrorism measures like we had to blacklist certain countries in the frontier markets, even at relatively extensive investment firms. I was out because we couldn’t be implicated in not understanding where the financial management of those funds was going to. And even when I was on the ground in Afghanistan, we were still having to pay for things with briefcases full of cash and the controls over that was challenging. It was really challenging to think about operating in that environment. So apart from just kind of the risk tolerance people might have for losing their capital, how do you think about the demand for excellence in emerging and frontier markets, both for the protection of investors, but also to assure that that capital is serving a constructive rather than a destructive purpose with the people it’s encountering?

Andrew Winker I mean, John, I think it’s an excellent question. I mean, I think that we’ve all seen a lot of the harm that aid can do when you might be trying to solve the wrong problem with aid. You know, and I think one of the really cool things that we see in this space is a lot of the things that we highlight is there’s really kind of a community element to it. You know, so if you think about how are we not just deploying capital into these regions, how are we really also putting our shoulder behind trying to really think about solving some of those problems alongside others? So several of these groups I mean, I work at the fund that has kind of every single investment is paired kind of within this mentor network. You know, so if a company that’s doing a food distribution business in Central Asia is looking at, hey, how do we solve some of these problems, well, let’s find someone in our network that was a VP at Cisco Foods for for 25 years. And how do we actually connect them to where we’re not reinventing the wheel, solving some of these problems? It’s just a more effective distribution, you know, of really kind of matching those problems. But I think that that will take patience. You know, I mean, you’re dealing across some more like that example I gave was someone that probably is more Western on the Cisco side dealing with someone in a frontier market, with a different culture, with a different kind of land. And so it really does, I think, take this mutuality of relationships going in to do that. But I think there’s an incredible opportunity for it. I think it just takes kind of reengaged with a little bit more than capital, which is one of the reasons we had a lot of there’s a lot of incredible capacity builders doing work in this space, too. You know, so we really long to see there be collaboration across, I guess we could call the whole value chain of capital into these markets, you know, and really see some collaboration both across kind of individuals joining these teams, but also organizations themselves.

John Coleman I love those stories and I would love I mean, if you all have another example would be kind of fun to hear a story of someone who’s navigating this well.

Tamanno Hodjihanova Yeah. I don’t know if I have a story, but maybe to add on to what Andrew was saying is I think it’s also really important to have local leaders on the ground in those countries. Right. It’s one thing to try to have a fund here focused on a country in the West, you know, from the West perspective, and that’s great. But there’s a part of trust community building, relational building that you don’t get unless you have a team and people locally on the ground that know, get a sense for the culture, know what it is to work. And so a lot of the organizations that we interviewed and you tell me if I’m wrong, but most of them have and or travel pretty extensively into those regions or have teams on the ground or have partnerships that they have developed over the years that allow them to help with some of the due diligence, some of the work that’s happening in relational building as well as our story that we can think of. I think that’d be fun to share.

Andrew Winker I was just going to share, I think one group that’s kind of pulling together a lot of this stuff in a really cool way is a group called Angelo Investment Network. And so they’re actually a network of these different fund managers and kind of entrepreneurs. And so one of the really encouraging things that I learned through this study was just kind of seeing the seeds of some really incredible locally led ecosystems in places like Egypt, Pakistan, Mongolia, with a lot of national and leaders really coming together and saying, hey, how do we think about really blessing our markets? You know, and I think that we really have an opportunity to join with our brothers and sisters in those parts of the world, you know, and learn from each other, you know, and actually pull up to the table and listen. There’s kind of this convening of these leaders. And so I think that that’s one story, an example of I think that we really can kind of come to that table as listeners and say, hey, what does God do it in these parts of the world that we might not even know about, you know, and how do we kind of doing this? That’s one group, I think, from the study that I was really encouraged by. There’s there’s plenty more. We we actually kind of profile meetings like 5 to 7 that we know particularly well. So if you’re curious for more specific kind of stories, I would point to those in the study of some of those kinds of sources of capital or funds that have been operating for a long time in these parts of the world.

John Coleman That’s awesome And maybe articulate. You know, I think one thing that people overlook, there is such a history of charity in these regions, right? I think when people think about doing something good in Africa or in parts of Central Asia or in parts of Southeast Asia that are more impoverished, they typically think about funding one of the excellent humanitarian organizations, anti-poverty organizations like World Vision or Compassion. And those play a role. But I also think that the future of these regions will be contingent upon them developing their own sustainable enterprises. Right. I mean, that was really the work we were tasked with when I was in Afghanistan was aid was almost distorting that economy in unhelpful ways because the smartest, best equipped people were all figuring out ways to just work with the United Nations or with other organizations handing out aid rather than building businesses. Right. That would exist long after these aid organizations had exited. Talk about, if you don’t mind, just kind of the role that private capital plays in building sustainable industry or business in these areas versus the philanthropic which is worthwhile in its own right. So I’m not diminishing that but is not well equipped for certain problems.

Patrick Lowndes John, we have on page six of the report, we have a really. A nice classic. That kind of helps picture the difference and like kind of the role that aid and charity play alongside in sort of like relief as opposed to just like rehabilitation and then the final stages like development. How do we now develop out of that? Right? So I’d point people to page six of the study, but at a high level, you know, leaders like Angela have told us we don’t just need people to show up and dump lots of investment capital into markets today. We don’t need that necessarily right now. What we need is the awareness of where communities are and ecosystems are in the stage of maturity and readiness, because sometimes we’re still working on the basic like shifts in mindsets and critical thinking and shifts and mindsets on how does relationships work. But transparency, where I’m willing to collaborate instead of hoard power, right, where I’m not in a survival mindset, but I’m in more of a flourishing, an abundance mindset, right? Kurt Laird’s book, The Culture Key, really unpacks this. If you want a good long read on this topic. And he actually was in Afghanistan telling a lot of these stories. So I would say coming to the table as an investor, the first good question to ask is who’s already here? What’s already happening and how ready are they to pursue? Even if you have a pitch deck in front of you, like how ready are they within their market to operate this kind of a business? Right. And those are the kinds of questions, some of the most excellently run funds, they have networks of people on the ground. These are not people just flying in from across the world and have no context culturally. So I think that’s how we as Faith Driven Investor can come in with foreign direct investment as an excellent partner and co investor.

Richard Cunningham That’s really good. All right. So there’s so much in so many different directions we could go in and I’m enjoying this conversation a lot, but one of the things I want to talk about is making it super relevant to the Faith Driven Investor who’s listening to this and is just like, Man, I’m just trying to think about how to implement negative or positive screens in my public market holdings and my asset allocation here domestically at home, like Frontier and Emerging Markets was maybe on my mind from a like a charitable capital standpoint. Now you’re kind of giving me the argument that, okay, like maybe this should also be something I consider from a investment capital standpoint. Patrick, you mentioned on page six that kind of overview of moving beyond charity. And I also think, you know, Greg learned a hand as the person I think of in the FDI ecosystem is help kind of popularize this idea around. Like as Americans, we give $557 billion and I’m using your data here. This is from 2023 to charity. And we have a million and a half nonprofits in the US competing for that same kind of pool of capital, which is that $557 billion it’s given the charity. Now that’s a significant amount of wealth and capital that’s given, but there’s $50 trillion of investable assets in the US alone. And we probably estimate just from kind of demographic data that 50% of that is held by Christian. So I love the way that you guys unpack this, where it’s saying, Hey, there is a charitable universe to this, but there’s also an investable universe. So maybe lean more into those tensions. And I also want to talk about kind of dipping back into the terrible waters, how this is possibly a way for someone to engage with donor advised fund capital. So now it’s kind of the blended world where it is given capital that can also be thought of as impact investment capital, not just given capital to adapt. That goes out as a grant to A501C3, but it’s given that could then be invested. So what thoughts do you guys have there?

Tamanno Hodjihanova And that’s great. So I think the question of I love that we get to blend both charitable and investment, all our conversations in the ways that we approach capital and maybe to make it super practical to the general Faith Driven Investor audience. Right. It certainly is recognizing that and we say this a lot on the feature and podcast, Everything that we own, everything that we have got, owns, right? It is all his those resources all belong to him. So what would he have you do? What could that look like? Is there things that you’re not currently thinking of in the ways that he would have you to do with that capital that may be a little outside of your comfort zone, and a part of it is leaning in to recognize that that could be the case. And a second is there’s a section in the report where we talk about how do you prepare yourself and then how do you walk with people and walk alongside them? The stuff is really hard and nuanced and it’s not something that you jump into and automatically know what to do or how to walk in the steps over. There are people who are leaders that we stand on the shoulders of that have continued to do this work. And so I would just encourage you to walk alongside your financial advisor if that’s the case. Right. Or finding people in the future in space that are working out sort of answer the questions that are hard and take a lot of time and due diligence. The other part of it is getting involved in communities and in events that are doing work like this that allow you to take small steps and invest with others to learn more. Something that I think I would encourage our veteran community is to look that our patients, we often want really quick results for lots of different things. I want to be able to invest capital and great after this all works out. But the reality is most people have been burnt out in front of an emerging market investments. We’ve talked about this beforehand. This is really hard. It’s probably not going to go the way that you thought will. And so taking baby steps will be the best way to walk into that space to know how you do that with others and then recognizing that there are ways and things that we can learn even when investments may not go the way that you thought. And this is also not a big part of your portfolio. Please don’t put all of your investment capital into what this looks like. But there are ways that we get to deploy mindfully and with wisdom to know how to do that. Does that help A little bit. And Andrew, please. The deaf world is fascinating because I think it’s a great first step that will allow you to donate, but also then get to experience kind of the investment side and working alongside some of the funds and companies.

John Coleman And maybe before Andrew jumps in, the one comment I’d offer there is people can often put more capital to work here than they think. I agree with you. If you’re managing kind of a balanced portfolio of your private capital, that frontier in emerging markets would typically be a small percentage thought about differently in the dark world, for example, which you just brought up. If you’re dedicating a lot of philanthropic capital to the emerging world, your ability to repurpose that, at least temporarily, for investments in the emerging world, which could ultimately then also be given philanthropically because you’re trying to earn a return on that capital could be a smart way to deploy that. Right. If you’ve got a great deal of your wealth, I mean, we know people, thank goodness, in our ecosystem who really believe this idea. You talked about that it’s all God’s right. And so they’re putting 90% of their net worth into philanthropic capital. You know, thinking about repurposing some of that, at least for a time, into investment capital or vice funds through places like Impact Foundation, etc.. You can actually put a lot of capital to work here and with a totally different mindset than you might take to call it your standard investment portfolio. Right. And so I would push our listeners maybe a bit further than you would because you’re being so conscientious that especially with resources like you all are developing that give people Guideposts to where they might steward this effectively, our ability to think creatively about the capital we deploy in this space and hopefully provide enough capital that we can be catalytic to those regions. I think there’s an extraordinary opportunity there. And you’re right, everyone needs to be sensible. You don’t want to put capital to work that you need to survive or that your kids need to go to college necessarily. But there are pools of capital out there that I think people could see through this way. So not contradicting what you said at all, but just saying you’re being incredibly conscientious, which is appropriate. But I think the vast majority of Christians who are dedicating a lot of philanthropic capital really could think more creatively about the ways in which they deploy that sometimes in this space.

Andrew Winker John I think that’s spot on. And if you look at the last like in 2022, there’s an estimated 224 billion in DAF assets. You know, if you look at our study, like when we kind of layer in, I mean, obviously pointing to Tim McCreadie did some awesome research. There’s 100 billion public markets Faith Driven Investor you know so even if you just think about wait, there’s two acts the number of DAF capital assets sitting waiting to be deployed. I think that the idea of permanent capital is an excellent lever. You know, it seems like a no regrets move that if if you had a magic wand and you could think about how can we creatively and patiently take that capital, that might be it’s already pre given, you know, and think about really joining alongside others. I think that’s a definitely a an arrow in the quiver to think about. That being said, I mean I do think there really are opportunities from anything from pure donation, you know, to helping to operating budgets of things, to catalytic capital, you know, looking at more kind of below market returns, but with a longer term impact all the way to there are opportunities for above market returns, as Patrick was saying, in some of these places. You know, I think those are all kind of areas in the quiver in an impact foundation. Using your DAF to invest is definitely an important lever there. I think that on the concept of time horizon is important here. You know, in general, I think that faithfulness over long periods of time is what yields fruitfulness. And so if we really are investing for eternity, you know, I think that we need to be able to stretch beyond that typical ten year fund life cycle that most people think about. And that’s typically the book end of our time. And if we’re honest, a lot of times you’re not even patient for that long. You know, if you’re really trying to invest for enduring transformation, it’s going to take time and patience, but it will be so worth it. It is so much joy to get to labor alongside our brothers and sisters, join Shoulders and do this together. But it’s going to take it out of the comfort zone a little bit.

Richard Cunningham I want to do this real quickly. I want to hear from each of you. When you think about the number of funds you got to interview the 40 something plus that ended up in the study and a name comes to mind from it from an impact methodology and approach. We’ve got to be careful here that this is by no means an investment recommendation. We’re trying to highlight and shine a spotlight on great work and faithful believers getting to work in markets that otherwise there hasn’t been a lot of activity. But I think each of you Rapid Fire would love to hear you talk about a particular approach that you’re captivated by and maybe kind of set up who they are, where they’re operating, what their kind of methodology is to kind of help give more kind of color and texture to some of these funds you’ve interviewed. Patrick, let’s start with you.

Patrick Lowndes Yeah. I mean, I think clearly the leader in this space, I would say, is transformational as Sammy for more than 20 years, I mean, $9 million of capital and the level of diligence and rigor on the ground and the people, I mean, they have basically shown us as younger, you know, next generation shown us, here’s how not to screw it up. Right. And so I think I look up to transformational, see me as probably one of the leaders in the space. And we did highlight we did a little feature on them. And again, it’s not a recommendation, it’s just something to go research. We’re a research group with that. So yeah, that’s one.

Andrew Winker I can go next and let tomorrow. Hopefully I don’t steal yours tomorrow. And I loved I think a lot of listeners might be familiar with the Lion’s Den. You know, there are some great lions dens in Birmingham and in DFW. One of my favorites that I’ve gotten to participate in the past couple of years is a lion’s den put on by a group called the Open Network. And that’s a really incredible way to kind of learn in community. You know, so making direct investments in some of these companies, getting to meet and just hear the stories of people running these businesses, but then also going to invest alongside others, you know, who have some experience doing that. So it was a really fun way for me, kind of relatively early on to pull together capital with some friends and invest in that kind of way. So again, as Patrick said, caveat that with 50 million different kind of disclaimers of not professional investing advice, but we really I think they’re doing some great stuff. And Angela network, as we said earlier to you.

Tamanno Hodjihanova Yeah, I’ll hone in on Angela for a little bit. I know we’ve already mentioned them, but something that really stands out to me with them is that they’re not operating out of the US. They’re also very locally ecosystem minded, right? So they are bringing together leaders and investment operators that are based in those regions and helping them to think holistically about a transformational plan not just for their city, but for the entire country. And then looking at how to create ecosystems and support around that, that allow for long term development and transformation, which I think is just super, super cool. That’s really encouraging for my heart to know that we have local leaders on the ground that are creating funds and investment networks and working alongside to do that for their own regions, which is at the end of the day, that’s where we want those communities to be.

John Coleman Well, I know Richard’s about to drive us to our final question, which we always ask about what folks are learning through Scripture. I wanted to conclude before we do that and we closed the podcast just saying two things. One is I really appreciate the work that you guys are doing. I think we are called as Christians to engage with the poor and disenfranchized. We’re called to engage with the world broadly to those who are unreached. So many of those are outside of the developed markets right now, where most of us live. Most listeners are actually in the United States, for example, where there’s a mission field of its own. But we’re really called to engage more broadly than that and to bring the church abroad. And I think we have an obligation to that, not just as Christians, but as human beings, right? Where there’s the greatest need in the world is often outside of our country. And I love that you guys are adding rigor to this, that you’re trying to help be a guidepost to others. Patrick That you’re putting your own all of your putting your own resources against this in a way that’s showing that you’re supporting on behalf of something greater than yourself, not just for yourself and the heart that you all have for this is awesome. And I’d really encourage FDI investors, as Richard was saying, this is kind of the final horizon. This is the frontier for most folks because, you know, public equities is where you start getting into private equity itself is a little bit challenging. Sometimes thinking about doing that in Ethiopia or in Afghanistan or Tajikistan, etc., is probably even a step further. And the fact that you all are trying to professionalize this space, but research against it to identify those who can be effective partners in this space. Man, what an awesome mission. Field and our our hope. I know I know Henry is deeply passionate about this is that folks will join him in that mission or really inappropriate ways to monitor to your point, with their own finances. Think about how to do that and really make this a core part of the way in which they engage philanthropically and through investment dollars, whether philanthropic or private in me. And I’m just so encouraged by the work you all are doing to put diligence behind this and rigor behind this, because I think it’s exactly what’s needed in this space.

Richard Cunningham Yeah, I’ll pile on because I’m scrolling through the research report in full, as John is saying this comment, and I’m astounded. Like you’ve got a market map and it’s not just the sources of capital. We’ve been talking about the funds I’ve highlighted, but there’s also the capacity builders, there’s the investor support. So the advisors that are really thinking about this, there is the infrastructure in terms of like, hey, how could this capital actually flow? Then there is specific breakdowns of those different sources of capital who they are, where they’re operating. There’s investment minimums. Then there’s thought leadership around like, Hey, is that equity, is it debt, is it performance based kind of revenue financing? What does that look like? They unpack the value of having a guide. They provide specific highlights and amounts deployed. I think people often ask is like, hey, give us the specifics. We’re looking for kind of the the teasers and the two pages and that overviews of like how I could actually as a Faith Driven Investor step up and get in the game. And so I think this research, as John is saying, is crucial to that. I’m also a sucker for a good two by two framework, and Patrick got into that earlier. It’s phenomenal. It breaks it down geography basis. So I’ll stop there. I could pile on all day long, but thank you guys for this exceptional work. And we’re going to close with what we always love to ask. I’m going to go around the horn and be brief because I know we’ve gone a little long here. Is that what’s God been teaching you in in through his word lately? We’ll go Patrick Tamano and then Andrew. That’s our final question we love to ask each and every iPod.

Patrick Lowndes Well, we’re in the book of Exodus at our church and how God shows his power over the gods among us. And the most popular competitor to God being the God of men in our money. So I’ve just been encouraged that even in this alternative investment class, I shouldn’t worship my financial security or my portfolio return, but I should be just remembering that God is my provider. Seek His kingdom first. You know, even like I was just mentioned in the Richard Garnett episode 180, just being focused on eternity. So that’s what I’m learning in the Book of Exodus.

Tamanno Hodjihanova Yeah. That’s awesome. I love the Book of Access. I’ve been reading through the Gospel of Matthew and I’ve just been struck by how many times the word behold gets used before miracles or certain things that Jesus will do. And just a reminder for my heart. Right. The Lord is not asking us to do all the things just for the sake of doing them, but rather we get to behold and see the work that he’s doing and will continue to do and join alongside him in that. And man, what a cool way of getting to see his glory and his faithfulness even more so as we just get to look to him for those things.

Andrew Winker It’s an awesome company. Yeah, I’ve been trying to spend a lot of time just naturally. I’ve kind of run pretty fast, so trying to slow myself down and really enjoy, just kind of trying to chew on just the Sermon on the Mount. And so specifically just it’s been incredibly freeing for me, hearing Jesus’s words talking about do not be anxious, you know, just kind of soaking in the language of will he not much more. Just those kinds of words. So really trying to simplify my life around what does it mean to seek first the kingdom? You know, it’s his job to provide for my needs, not mine. A lot of times I can kind of run to that. And so those types of things can sound cliche to me, but so I really have to remind myself that seeking first the kingdom doesn’t mean seeking first my job or my work so that I can seek first the kingdom or trying to mobilize others into seeking first the kingdom without doing it myself. It it’s really, truly trying to build my whole life purpose around enjoying God, beholding Jesus and partnering with Him to build this kingdom where it’s moving. And so it’s truly what my heart longs for, or at least it’s what I want it to. Sometimes it doesn’t, but that’s been freeing for me.

Richard Cunningham It’s good. Andrew My wife’s memorizing the Sermon on the Mount right now, and I think it’s slowing her down.

Andrew Winker She’s got me beat. I’m not trying. I’m. I’m. I wish I could memorize it.

Richard Cunningham She’s way cooler and better than I am. All right. A bonus round question really fast, Patrick. Pragma has done this incredible study, but there’s more that you’re up to. And I think kind of the framework of what all you’re doing helps people kind of understand the necessity and the size of the opportunity. So close is there.

Patrick Lowndes I’ll give you three pillars. So this is our first pillar insights into research. And this is also what has been happening where capital is flowing. We’re also beginning to look at where market opportunity could be in some of these markets. So more on that. That’ll be a future episode. We’ll talk about that. The second piece is just investment advisory and trying to work with family offices that are looking to get more strategic. How do I take the first steps? How do I think about all the different options in the space? And the final piece is, even if you have market opportunity and you have a plan to deploy capital, you need talent, you need great operators. And so we’ve been doing this for six years now, helping operators get a little bit sharper. And so that talent pipeline is the third pillar of what we like to do. And there are some ways that we do that. But yeah, we love any and all those things that are going to catalyze more resources, more excellent operators. And at the end of the day, a lot more people that love Jesus blessing the nations and the whole world with their gifts.

Richard Cunningham Super cool. Well, hey, this has been the Faith Driven Investor podcast where we’re zooming in on the 2024 pragma investment market study focused on emerging and frontier markets. Patrick Kimono Andrew, one encouragement to have you on Friends. You’re going to download this report either at pragma advisors.com or we’ll have it in the show notes. So we’re going to look at and say, Yeah, this looks like it was put together by some expert consultants. It’s good work. And so thank you for being on Friends and we will catch everyone next time.

Andrew Winker Thank you.

Speaker 2 We are grateful for the opportunity to serve this community and see your listeners come in for more than 100 countries. Faith Driven Investor. It can be a lonely journey, but it doesn’t have to be. The best way to stay connected is to join a group study with other investors looking to get the same answers to questions you have and find great community as they do so. There’s no cost, no catch. In person or online, you can meet an hour a week with other peers from your backyard or the other side of the world. You can also stay connected by signing up for our monthly newsletter and faith driven investing Dawg. This podcast wouldn’t be possible without the help of many of our friends. Executive Producer Justin Foreman. Intro mixed and arranged by Summer Drags Audio and Editing by Richard Barley. Our theme song is Sweet Ever After by Ellie Holcomb.

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In this edition of Marks on the Markets, Richard and John are joined by Bob Doll, the newly appointed President and CEO of Crossmark and a staple in the Faith Driven Investing movement. 

Each year, Bob outlines 10 market predictions for the coming months, and in this episode, he shares what he sees happening in 2024, how his predictions are looking after the first quarter, and how the election might affect the markets.

Episode Transcript

Richard Cunningham: You’re listening to Fate Driven Investor, a podcast that highlights voices from a growing movement of Christ following investors who believe that God owns it all and cares deeply about the heart posture behind our stewardship. Thanks for listening.

Hey everyone! All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests, are solely their opinions. Host and guests may maintain positions in the companies of securities discussed, and this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization. Thanks for listening.

Richard Cunningham: Well. Hello everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Faith Driven Investor Podcast. My name is Richard Cunningham. I have the joy of being on staff with Faith Driven Investor. And I’m your host today, joined, as always by one of our incredible mainstays in John Coleman, managing partner at Sovereign Capital. And John, if we’re doing a marks on the markets episode, I couldn’t think of someone better than newly appointed president and CEO of Crossmark Global Investments, Bob Doll, formerly the CIO of Crossmark for the last three years. Bob, I’m pretty sure you’re supposed to be retired as of 2021, but here you are having quite a busy last three years. What a joy to have both of you on the show. How are we doing, gentlemen?

John Coleman: Man, I’m just excited to be here with Bob. I mean, he’s someone I’ve known about for many years. Since my, since my last position in investment management had a lot of admiration for him over the years, the various firms he’s worked at, and, of course, just one of the best guests on a podcast out there. Bob, you’re on TV all the time. Everybody’s looking for your insights. We’re pretty fortunate to get him today. Thanks for coming on.

Bob Doll: Richard. And John. Thanks for those kind words. They’re humbling because we know markets are the great equalizer. If people aren’t, the markets certainly will, hit us across the face from time to time. So it’s a thrill to be with you folks and share things as we find them at this moment. On the retirement bit, I was eligible for retirement, so took retirement, but had no intention of retiring. Making the decision to move to a faith based money manager was a joy. And since I’ve done that, I’ve looked in the mirror literally several times and saying, what took you so long? So it’s been a joy.

John Coleman: Man. I feel the same way. Bob, you and I are in the same boat in that we spent most of our careers in kind of mainstream investment management organizations, and I’d say the last three, you and I came into this space about the same time. Actually, you came in just a bit after I did, I think. And, it’s been the most fun three years of my career, so I’m glad to hear it’s been the same for you.

Bob Doll: Sure has. It’s as I know you will agree. Yes, it’s a job and it’s a career and it’s investments, but it’s a ministry as well. And that is part of the joy for sure.

Richard Cunningham: Awesome. Well, for just anyone who doesn’t know Bob’s background though, you can look it up and it is quite detailed. This is a guy who spent time at Blackrock, Merrill, Oppenheimer, Nuveen and then to kind of paint the story for you there as a listener. Bob retired in March of 2021, but then it didn’t take long for him to join back up into the workforce with Crossmark Global Investments served as the chief investment officer for three years, and then now as the newly appointed CEO and president. Crossmark is a Houston, Texas based $6.2 billion asset manager investing out of the Stuart family of mutual funds across equity, fixed income, liquid alternatives and derivative income asset classes. And so it is some retirement you are enjoying, Bob, but what a joy to have you on the podcast. We are grateful the faith driven investor ecosystem is grateful. And so to kind of set today up because this is a marks in the markets episode. If you didn’t know Bob Doll every year does this amazing thing where he releases ten predictions for the upcoming year. And so coming into 2024, Bob released these ten predictions he had for the markets and kind of the broader economy for 2024. And, Bob, if I’m not mistaken, before I get into reading off those predictions and you and John respond to those and we kind of have some kind of commentary now that we’re one quarter into the year, what’s the story behind those predictions? Am I not mistaken that these started like 30 years ago or something like that?

Bob Doll: Yeah, I’ve done them for at least 30 years. Richard. You know, a blog I had at the time was doing it, got tired of it and said, Bob, you want to try this. And I’ve been doing it ever since. I think among the things that have given us some credibility is every quarter we write up how we’re doing and then get someone to score us at the end of the year. I don’t change them during the year. I’m not a strategist like so. Side strategists change their mind and evolve over time, so we live with them all year long. We get some right, we get some wrong. And, hopefully we learn from them.

Richard Cunningham: I mean, that’s awesome. I mean, you, John, and I all come from kind of the asset management space. So my respect and admiration that you do this is high because we know how leery compliance and marketing can be of predictions that get kind of put out there. And then you have to explain them. If they didn’t go, you know, perfectly correct. How did 2023 go before we go into 2024?

Bob Doll: Not great. I tried my worst. I think it was the third time I got only five right. You know? So I despair of the year when I get three right. Three out of ten and, you know, come here. What Bob says about next year, that’s not going to go over well. We’ve average. The good news is 72% over the many years we’ve been doing it. So the problem is we never know which seven out of ten we might get. Right. If we did know which ones, we could all make a bloody fortune. I guess.

Richard Cunningham: That’s incredible. Well, I mean, it kind of reminds me, I think I’m in, like, the fifth percentile in my March Madness bracket. So as we record this, it’s March 25th, Monday of Holy Week. This will be released after Easter in April. So I hope all of our listeners have a wonderful Easter celebration. But, you know, I’m down there in the March Madness rankings. But I believe these year’s predictions and we’ll show you just how astute Bob is. So I’m going to read off the ten predictions, and then we’ll dive in letting you to kind of respond where you are first, kind of feeling compelled by. So here are Bob Doll’s ten predictions for 2024. Number one, the US economy will experience a mild recession as the unemployment rate rises above 4.5%. Number two, the 2 to 3% inflation ceiling of the 2010 becomes the 2 to 3% inflation floor of the 2020s. Number three, the fed cuts rates fewer than six times suggested by the fed funds futures curve number four credit spreads widen as interest rates decline. Number five earnings growth falls short of the double digit percentage consensus expectation prediction number six stocks record a new all time high early in the year, but then experience a fade number seven. Energy financials and consumer staples outperform utilities, health care and real estate. Number eight. And this is a final one that will return to kind of Bob talking about his movement to a faith based asset manager. This is faith based share of industry AUM rises for the eighth year in a row. Number nine geopolitical crosscurrents multiply but have little impact on markets. And number ten the white House, Senate and House all switched parties come election time in November. So there are Bob Doll’s ten predictions for 2024. Bob, as you hear that, what immediately kind of jumps out to you and allow you guys some time to just respond to those.

Bob Doll: Sure comes to my mind is the theme that envelops all these, and then I’ll let John figure out which ones we want to go after. In particular, the theme is Goldilocks remains a fairy tale. What do we mean by that? Coming into the year and to some degree, still, the expectation by the consensus is that we’re going to get double digit earnings growth. That is, the economy is going to be good and earnings are going to grow nearly double the normal rate. But on the other hand, and at the same time, inflation is going to continue to fall and the Fed’s going to cut rates. At the start of the year, the expectation was six times. Our view is one side or the other or both get disappointed. Goldilocks remains a fairy tale. Or you can have your cake and eat it too. That’s the theme for these predictions that caused us since the beginning of the year and still now to be cautious. Not bearish, but cautious. We are in a momentum driven bull market, and predicting the end of the momentum is a fool’s game and therefore you ride the momentum. But you have, you know, short leash on the market or stops not too far below the market should, in fact, the high risks associated with PE ratios of 21.5 times be a concern for the market, which I think they will become at some point. So that’s the broad panoply of this, set of predictions.

John Coleman: Yeah. You know, as I think about that, Bob, if I think about my own position at the beginning of last year, I was probably a bit too pessimistic. I thought going into last year, the chances of recession were much higher. I thought the fundamentals of the economy were likely to deteriorate in a more substantial way. I didn’t think we’d hold as strong as we have, honestly, and I certainly didn’t predict that markets would rebound in quite the way that they did. Obviously a lot driven by the Magnificent Seven. And we’ve seen technology trends and we can come to that. Now it does feel like markets are potentially overshooting a little bit, or getting too optimistic that there is a little bit of a Goldilocks syndrome. And what I’m wondering is, you know, is the fundamental economy able to continue to chart a relatively positive course this year? Maybe not in line with the expectations that you’re mentioning, but at least continuing positive momentum. And there I tend to maybe have, maybe chastened by last year or more optimistic view, which is it doesn’t seem like we’re going to have a serious recession. You mentioned a mild recession here, and maybe that’s a place to dive in. It doesn’t seem like we’re going to have to dramatically raise rates anymore, although I am skeptical that we’re even going to be able to lower them at all, potentially the Federal Reserve. And so maybe as we dive into this, Bob, let’s start with the fundamentals of the economy. You’re predicting kind of a mild recession with unemployment rising, which is not where we are right now. I think we’re effectively below frictional unemployment right now, are below what you would predict for frictional unemployment. How do you see that beginning to kick in? And are there any early warning signs that that might materialize?

Bob Doll: Yeah. First of all, 4.5% inflation, as you know, is still a very low number. In fact, in the slides I used to back this up, I show long term unemployment rates. And four and a half is barely above.

John Coleman: Right. That’s right.

Bob Doll: As you, both probably know, when inflation has moved up one half of 1%, 5/10 following that has always led to a recession. We’re up 4/10. So there’s not much room left. Of course we can break the rule. Nobody sets their rules in the economy, in the markets. But you ask, what signs are we seeing? The unemployment rate has ticked up modestly. I think we will see more of that. I would point out, while the government measures lots of things, one of the things that they do not measure well is people working multiple jobs. Yeah, a lot of people that were working three jobs and believe it or not, they’re a bunch of people are only working two now. Many are working, two are only working one now, not because they’ve chosen to, but because the job is not available to them anymore. And what I would add to your good question is the bifurcation we’re seeing in the economy and with the consumer. High end consumers are doing just fine. They’re loving life. Stock markets up a bunch, their home prices up a bunch. And, you know, taking money off the table in those areas to live if they need to, which most of them don’t is quite good. Lower level consumers clearly struggling. Their Covid money is gone and there’s evidence they’re upping their credit card balances to live. And recently in the last month, evidence that they’re taking money out of their 401 case with a tax penalty in order to live. So, again, I don’t want to be a bear on the economy, but I think there are increasing number of signs. Maybe I add this, John, if I might. Most people, myself included, expected a recession last year begging the question why didn’t a recession happen? Yeah, I think there’s several answers one, most of us. I know I did. Underestimated how much the Covid cash kept the economy going. That is money that hiring consumers accumulated because they were in their pajamas for four months and didn’t go out and spend money, or at the other end of the spectrum, got a lot of checks from the government. Took a while to spend those. Second reason is even post the Covid stimulus. Last year, the government put a lot of money into the economy, more than most of us thought. And thirdly, and this is the one I’m still researching. Private credit. Private credit exploded kind of from a decade ago, almost 0 to $2 trillion in half that expansion in the last two years. Those three things provided so much cash for our economy. That’s mainly why we didn’t have recession. So yeah, we’re going to get a recession this year. Yeah. Who knows. I do think we will get a slowdown, perhaps a noticeable slowdown that will cause this double digit earnings expectation not to make it.

John Coleman: Well, and I think just in terms of the unemployment rate, Bob. And check me if you think this is wrong. I do think some of the deflation in in the unemployment rate or at coming down was related to a decline in labor force participation during Covid as well. And all of the trends that you just highlighted would lead us to believe that that will begin to take up again. People are burning through savings. They’re having to live more on credit. Those who left the workforce are getting impacted by higher prices and by inflation and by a real affordability crisis, not just an inflationary crisis, but in things like housing, you know, a real affordability crisis spurred by continued constraints in supply. And so it does feel like more people are going to get back in the workforce. Fewer people are going to be dropping out of the workforce. And unemployment is likely to increase, at least because of that. In addition to the idea that there may be some frictions in the economy spurred by artificial intelligence or by firms continuing to cut their workforces to kind of lean up for potential troubles that could cause that number to rise.

Bob Doll: I fully agree with all of your points. There are good points to me, and underscoring what you just said is a bigger picture thought Covid has stressed and strained normal relationships. So economists have really struggled because the rule book does not include a pandemic and the experience pattern. So it’s really difficult to understand sometimes what these relationships are and what they have done and what they might do.

Richard Cunningham: Up in real quick. Bob, one of the predictions is prediction number six. Stocks record a new all time high earlier in the year, but then experience a fade. We are once again recording this at the end of Q1 2024. Has that checked out? Too early to tell to my knowledge, feels like things have been marching on and everyone’s kind of sitting there. As you guys have alluded to, scratching their head at the momentum that’s at play.

Bob Doll: Yeah. You know, the jury’s still out. We don’t know if the stock market continues straight up for the rest of the year. We’ll have to mark this one wrong. But my guess is at some point here in the first half, our guess might have been the first quarter, although we didn’t state that explicitly. We see a high for the year and then a fade. And it doesn’t mean a big bear market necessarily. And I come back to earnings probably aren’t going to make the double digit percentage gain. And we’ve already moved from six down to three expected fed cuts. And some people now are moving to two. And they’re even some people say we’re not going to get any and all of that for a PE of 21.5 times, you know, if the PE was 15 or 16 or 17, I might say that’s okay. But when PEs are, you know, in the 20s, I’m an old man. I’ve only seen PEs over 20 – 3 times. Tech bubble, Covid and now and the first two times the outcome wasn’t pretty. Let’s hope it’s different this time. But valuation when it’s this high demands almost perfection and we don’t have perfection. There are a lot of flies in the ointment.

John Coleman: Can we talk about. I do want to circle back to this idea of the interest rates and inflation in a moment, because I think, you know, that’s an important topic to touch on. But one of the things we’re monitoring. If you go one click below in the market right now is this divergence between the Mega-cap stocks, especially the Mega-cap technology stocks and small cap and mid-cap stocks. And you mentioned this price to earnings ratio at 21.5, I think was what you were talking about. And obviously that’s substantially higher for some of the Magnificent Seven or those that have been driving markets right now. For those not as familiar. There’s a group of stocks that people refer to as The Magnificent Seven lately, which is almost always a harbinger of doom. I think when you get a label like that, but includes firms like Nvidia, meta, Apple, Amazon, these big technology players that have rapidly grown, that people view as safe technology stocks with really strong earnings and revenue that have been almost all of the upside performance of the S&P 500 from an asset weighted perspective recently. And those mega caps have diverged quite substantially from the small and mid-cap stocks. What’s your perspective on that and how sustainable is that? I know on our side, we’ve been predicting that small and mid-cap have to make up some of that difference at some point, seeing that there has to be more of a return to norm. But these mega caps keep running. What are you seeing right there? What do you think might happen?

Bob Doll: You know, several observations. First of all, November, December when we got the big fed says I’m done quote unquote rally. We got a good broadening in the market and down cap or equally weighted portfolios or small cap certainly did better than we come into the new year. And it fades again. So we’re having this tug of war of late last few weeks. Small is doing a little bit better again. I agree with you. For the market to be sustained to the upside, we need more broadening, which we very well might get. And where I thought you were going, and worth pointing out, is the PE of the 493 in the S&P, those seven is lower, noticeably lower, but still not low. And that reminds you when people bring that up is you know, the stock market is always cheap. If you take whatever the bubble is out of the bull market, you know, he will do that all the time. So I tend to look at the overall and then understand the differences inside. To The Magnificent Seven. John, we’ve obviously seen some splintering. Tesla has been an awful stock. It’s had some fundamental problems and some valuation compression. And my guess there’s more to come. Apple Amazon. Those stocks have flagged a bit. They’ve broken some technical uptrend lines etc. so it’s no longer monolithic as it was for much of last year for the Magnificent Seven, which I think is healthy for the market, meaning we need that broadening to take place. So I think that, look, technology and AI is certainly among the reasons the stock market has done well. It is among the reasons bulls on the economy think it will do well. And look, AI is making a difference. It will continue to make a difference. But I wonder a bit if the stock market’s not overdone that theme.

John Coleman: You know, maybe we could touch on this topic of interest rates and inflation really quickly because inflation has come down, although it remains persistent. And the history of inflation tells us it’s always more persistent than we think it will be, or it’s almost always more persistent than we think it will be. And count me among those who thinks the likelihood that we don’t get an interest rate decrease this year is pretty high, that actually the fed has to maintain rates, I don’t know that they’ll have to raise them, but they’ll have to maintain them. And the only thing that causes me to question that a little bit is the possibility of political pressure headed into an election season where the fed will be under enormous pressure to keep the economy humming, rather than allowing it to slip into a recession because of the electoral process. Say, a little bit more just about what you think will factor into the Fed’s decision of whether to raise or cut rates or hold them steady, and whether you think inflation is actually kind of stamped out now, although it may stay a little bit higher or whether there’s real danger.

Bob Doll: So let’s put some numbers on it. As we all know, headline inflation got to 9%, core inflation to about six. Let’s stick with core inflation. Core inflation has come from six to just under four. Remember the Fed’s target is 2. It’s a lot easier to get inflation from 6 to 4 down two points than it is 4 to 2. Two more points. So I like you, John. I’m dubious. I don’t think we’re going to get to 2% inflation. If we do, we will be in a recession. Now, can it go a bit lower? We’ve just had two months of disappointing inflation numbers. Many economists argue that that would happen. And maybe that’s ending. And now we’ll begin a downdrift again. And I’m in that school. But I think we’re not going to get below three. And look is there a big difference for two and three for interest rates and PE ratio. You bet there is for the economy to some degree. It will the fed get it to three and wave a checkered flag and say yeah it’s close enough. That’s not out of the question. You know the dual mandate is firmly in their mind. Keep inflation under control and watch the unemployment rate. So like you sounds like doubtful. We’re going to have many if any cuts this year. The fed would love to cut rates for a whole bunch of reasons. And with foreign central banks beginning to cut rates, the pressure will be more from that on the fed than it will be from the politics of the U.S. election, in my view. So fed funds rate probably a little lower at the end of the year, but not much.

Richard Cunningham: What about looking at things like geopolitical crosscurrents? You know, we’ve seen, you know, a pretty devastating headline in Russia. And what could that result in, in terms of just tensions and disputes kind of in foreign markets? What does that looked like in terms of what’s going on here in our local economy, but also on a global level?

Bob Doll: It seems like every time you make a list of geopolitical issues, every 2 or 3 months, it gets a little longer. So why is that happen? My thesis is because the U.S. has lost hegemony. My analogy, is like way back when when you went out at 10:00 in the morning for school recess, you had 15 minutes to go play on the playground. It was the three of us. And John’s the big guy, the bully. We hold back a little bit from our misbehavior, because we’re just a little worried about how this bully might react. Conversely, when there’s no bully on the playground, everybody does what they feel like. And that’s where we are. The world is a messy place. And yo, Russia of late. And where did that come from in the U.S.? Warns Russia? I mean, it’s just an amazing and complicated world. So I think that list will continue to grow. And so far it’s not affected markets any way at all. A lot of the reasons, because the guts of the economy has not been touched. Take the Middle East. People said, oh, conflagration in the Middle East. Oil prices are going to go through the roof and the economy is going. That didn’t happen. And it doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point. But most of these things have been contained not to affect the economy of the world, and therefore markets have been fine.

John Coleman: Yeah. You know, I think this is super fascinating, actually, because we’ve had these two proof points in the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as in the war in Israel, obviously, the terrorist attack in Israel and then the war in Gaza. And they have been contained to those regions. Right. By and large, I mean, there have been some impacts. Part of that is I think world energy markets are a bit more stable, especially with the US energy output being so high right now. I would say the one conflict I think that could throw the international markets into more disarray would be if something happened with China and Taiwan. I don’t believe there’s an incredibly high chance of that. But because of the Taiwanese centrality to processors at the moment, because of the role those play in artificial intelligence and in a lot of the other operations that we’d see. And to your point, the US losing hegemony, we really live in a bipolar world right now between China and the United States. I think Russia is a player. You know, there are other players, but if you think it’s superpowers, it’s really the United States and China at the moment. Absent that, I think I agree with you. I don’t think these international conflicts, unless something super dramatic happens, are likely to play a role. I do want to get your thoughts on domestic politics, because obviously that tends to have a much bigger role in markets. I’m interested in the switch parties comment because we have a one seat Republican majority in the House right now. That obviously could be expanded in November. It could switch. We’ve got a strange white House race right now where there’s broad dissatisfaction with both major candidates, honestly, particularly because of the age issue. And the Senate, structurally, is the one that looks a bit more straightforward in that it’s a friendlier GOP map than Democratic map right now, just in terms of the states and the seats that are coming up. Talk to us a little bit more about your prediction that all parties switch in November. I’m interested. Does that mean you think it’ll be a Democratic House and a Republican White House and Senate, or is it a is it a broad based Republican? And what’s driving that? What impact do you think that will have on markets if that materializes?

Bob Doll: Yes, I think we’ll wake up in November after the election. Republican president, Republican, Senate, Democratic House, all three switching. And that’s not just, you know, reaching into the air. Nine of the last ten elections in the U.S., we have booted out the incumbents. That kind of string has not happened since after reconstruction, which is a long time ago. We are in the mood in this country that whoever is in the chair. I don’t like him or her. I’ll take the other guy, the challenger. And so we’re booting regularly those folks out. Yes. You have to right the Senate. Given the GOP friendliness, I would put 70% chance that the Republicans take the Senate, maybe 75. The House and the white House are obviously much more difficult. I think with the number of Republicans retiring and being frustrated with the operations in the House, some of the demographics, etc., I think it’s, you know, 55, 60 that the Democrats take the House, the white House. Obviously, you use the word strange election. That’s one word I can think of. A bunch of others do. It’s a crazy world in which we live. And nobody wants either guy. You’re absolutely right. Look, if anybody strong or medium was running against, I’m going to use the phrase a doddery old man who has trouble finishing sentences and has a record on a lot of things that are suspect. You’d think that guy would be winning in a landslide, but not the case because Donald Trump has his problems just like Joe Biden does. So this probably goes down to the wire back, connecting this to the last subject about geopolitical things. Donald Trump has made it clear that if he gets elected, he’s going to put a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. That. It’s like a massive tax increase to Americans. And I think that could exasperate the domestic economy, not to mention the geopolitical issues that would come from that. So keep your eye on this space.

John Coleman: Well, and I’ll make one prediction that’s not on your list. That’s just perpetually on my mind. And then Richard can get us back on track with additional predictions. I actually think there’s substantially more weakness in China right now than people believe. I’ve been in China bear for some time, and part of that’s just a structural conviction that it’s nearly impossible to have a dynamic economy or political system as restrictive as China’s. They’ve tried to split the difference in having more of a free market approach to the economic system, with more of a totalitarian political system. And I just think that leads to a lot of stasis in the way in which resources get distributed in autocracies means that they’re much more fragile than we think. And I think there have been some early warning signs that the Chinese economy and political system is weaker than we think. Obviously, data is difficult to trust. That comes out of China at the moment. But if I had one prediction this year, I’d say over the next 12 to 18 months, I wouldn’t be surprised if real substantive weakness in the Chinese economic and political system begins to leak out. And then the way in which that manifests in the broader world, whether that’s hostility towards Taiwan, whether it’s domestic political turmoil, I’m not exactly sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see that soon. Given what I think are some headwinds that the Chinese economy is facing.

Bob Doll: Richard, let’s add that is prediction 11. I agree with John. I’d, I just add two points. One, short term or this could last for a while is the real estate problem. Yeah. There’s too many 100 plus story buildings in China that nobody’s living in, and they’re financed on debt. I mean, how do you square that circle? And then the long term demographic problem. Demographers argue that China’s population at the end of this century is likely to be about half what it is today. Hard to fathom. You know, the one birth policy, even though it doesn’t exist anymore, has become a way of life. So the Chinese folks fewer get married when they do. It’s later in life. Many of them have no kids. If they do, it’s one. If you have two, you have a big family. Crazy.

Richard Cunningham: Well, John Coleman, let the record show you made the Bob Doll 2024 predictions […..]

Richard Cunningham: Well, gents, I want to. First off, a blast to hear you guys riff on all of this. I want to close here because, Bob, you’ve got this really compelling prediction number eight. And that is faith based share of industry. AUM rises for the eighth year in a row. So first off, I think it’d be fun to hear you kind of. Paint the picture of how that prediction is created, what we’re measuring like, you know, kind of what’s the baseline, what specific industry AUM is it just public markets, as you know, include private markets and things like that? I mean, just talk about kind of that trend we’re seeing in this faith based space that all of us are really passionate about.

Bob Doll: Yeah. It’s curious that folks that ask about this are not just people of faith. I have a lot of people go through these predictions and that’s where they go. Tell me about this one. So depending on who you talk to, most argue that faith based money management is 40 to $50 billion, which is a tiny little speck in the overall asset management industry. So we are part of a very small industry. But when you look at the market share of that total, well, it’s a very low number. It has grown seven years in a row. So the prediction is based on the fact that I observe more. And you guys, do too more and more people and institutions wanting to line up their investments with their beliefs, whether they’re faith based or not. And, that cause I think getting this one right is going to be like shooting fish in a barrel. I think this will continue to grow. And I think part of our collective opportunity and you both know this is education. A lot of people are not aware that this little sliver of the money management industry even exists. And when they do, light bulbs go on. In my three short years at Crossmark, one of my biggest surprises is a how much education we have to do of strong faith based people, and b how many non faith based people are willing to do business with us. And when I ask why, they say something to the effect that, you’re good people, we’ve been watching you. We trust you. Would you manage our money? Which is just a real joy and an opportunity and frankly, a mission field.

John Coleman: Yeah, what I add to that. So I think we’re both a little bit biased here, Bob. So it’s always, challenging to make predictions where you’re heavily incented on one side of the prediction. But I do think you’re right. I mean, I’ve been really encouraged. The growth over the last few years has been extraordinary. I think there’s more interest than ever in taking a hard look at the values of investments, partially because there’s been this reaction against a relatively monolithic set of values that had been a part of the industry that people are now questioning, and they’re taking a look at how their providers match up with that and whether they really reflect their values. So it’s just putting a ton of money in motion. And the faith based share of the marketplace is so small that there’s almost unlimited amount of upside right now to that asset growth. So I think all that works in the favor of growth in this faith based market. I think the other component of that is just the number of quality providers or the supply of faith based asset management that’s out there right now. I know Richard and colleagues at Faith Driven Investor have been central to trying to encourage people to get in the game, to try and get really good people in the game. And frankly, I think the more people like Bob Doll we have come over, the more that that increases the credibility of this space. I mean, you were a legend in your own right in the mainstream world, and the fact that you’ve contributed your talents and time to the faith driven world, I think, is exactly what we need across the board in multiple asset classes to just increase the quality and the reputation of the space. And the more that we have that, the more the supply improves, the more incredibly talented people move over to try and make this a priority in their own work. I think inevitably people will be drawn to the space and hopefully the performance of the space will warrant continued growth.

Bob Doll: Fully agree. And you folks have faith driven investors. Sovereigns capital more generally have been to contribute to that as well. You’ve educated people, you’ve brought people together, and we just need to continue to do that because, together we can grow the pie separately, will sub optimize our individual and collective opportunity.

Richard Cunningham: Man, that’s really well said. Yeah. There’s a lot of pie out there as John, you were alluding to. And so let’s not get so siloed in kind of our own individual lanes that we’re running in and just remind ourselves that, man, this is kingdom purposes here. What an opportunity. What a privilege. All right, Bob, let’s close with this. One of the questions we love to ask. And I’m sure we’ve asked that before, as I believe this is your third ever official FDI podcast appearance is just man, we’ve covered a lot of ground here, a lot of it, you know, rightfully sober minded in terms of just what’s happening across markets and across the world, but maybe share a little bit of encouragement with us in terms of what’s God has been teaching you personally, just whether it be in your work, in your quiet times with him, that’s folks. Tune into this post Easter. What encouragement might Bob Doll share about what the Lord’s been teaching him lately in his word?

Bob Doll: You prompted me on this, so I thought for a bit. And the simple but profound concept of God’s sovereignty struck me. It’s been ringing in my mind, in my heart, in my devotional life. My job, as you pointed out, the front end. You know I have more responsibility than I intended, asked for or wanted. God had a different plan. Family. We have three kids. Two walking with the Lord. One not the one that’s not having professed faith and a lot of fruit earlier in life, but walked away and my wife renewal time. Bob stopped trying to be God. God is sovereign. He knows what he’s doing and personally the same thing day by day. So that leads to greater peace, greater joy, which comes out of the peace and contentment that the day by day. He knows the future, and we just need to attempt to understand and walk in his will. And then God’s sovereignty just rings loud and clear.

Richard Cunningham: Amen. Well, friends, thank you so much for tuning in. This has been Bob Doll on a marks on the markets Faith Driven Investor podcast episode. Bob, what a joy and a privilege to have you on. Thank you for your incredible work, John. As always, thank you for being such a key part of this show. And friends, we’ll catch you next time.

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In this episode, John Coleman is joined by Tony Minopoli and Andrew Abela to explore faith driven investing in the Catholic world and in the Catholic Church. 

Tony is the President and Chief Investment Officer of the Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors. In that capacity, Tony oversees all elements of the investment strategy and operations for the Knights, predicated on nearly two decades with that institution and a prior career in investment consulting with the Valuation Associates. Through his role with the Knights, he’s also helping the Catholic Church more broadly continue to advance its thinking on faith based investing. 

Andrew is a professor of marketing and the founding dean of the Bush School of Business at Catholic University. In addition to a storied academic career, which we may delve into, Andrew has worked with institutions like McKinsey and Company and Procter and Gamble, published broadly, and as a leading thinker on faith based, faith based and principled entrepreneurship and investing alike.

The two join John to share about what it looks like for Catholics to engage in Faith Driven Investing both in the modern day and throughout history.

Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors: https://www.kofcassetadvisors.org/

Busch School of Business: https://business.catholic.edu/

Episode Transcript

Richard Cunningham: You’re listening to Fate Driven Investor, a podcast that highlights voices from a growing movement of Christ following investors who believe that God owns it all and cares deeply about the heart posture behind our stewardship. Thanks for listening.

Rusty Rueff: Hey everyone! All opinions expressed on this podcast, including the team and guests are solely their opinions host and guests may maintain positions in the companies of securities discussed, and this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization. Thanks for listening.

John Coleman: Welcome back to the Faith Driven Investor podcast. This is John Coleman hosting solo today without my co-host Richard Cunningham, but with a very, very special episode. Today we are going to explore faith driven investing in the Catholic world and in the Catholic Church. And we have two extraordinary people to help us do that today. The first guest is Tony MInopolI, who’s the president and chief investment officer of the Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors. In that capacity, Tony oversees all elements of the investment strategy and operations for the Knights, predicated on nearly two decades with that institution and a prior career in investment consulting with the Valuation Associates. Through his role with the Knights, he’s also helping the Catholic Church more broadly continue to advance its thinking on faith based investing. Secondly, we have Andrew Abela with us today. He’s a professor of marketing at the founding dean of the Bush School of Business at Catholic University. In addition to a storied academic career, which we may delve into, Andrew has worked with institutions like McKinsey and Company and Procter and Gamble publish broadly, and is a leading thinker on faith based and principled entrepreneurship and investing alike. Andrew and Tony, we are really grateful to have you on today. Welcome to the show.

Tony Minopoli: Thank you. What glad to be here.

Andrew Abela: Thank you

John Coleman: Awesome. Well, to kick off, I was hoping that we could just level set a bit on what this looks like in the Catholic Church today. You’re each working on that in your own ways, in your different spheres. But maybe you could start off by just setting the table for what is the Catholic Church’s current approach to faith aligned or faith driven investing? And maybe, Tony, we could start with you and then you Andrew.

Tony Minopoli: I was going to defer to the professor among us first, but I’m happy to take a shot at it. You know, for us John, the key is, is that the Knights of Columbus is an entity. We don’t create Catholic doctrine. We never have. We followed Catholic doctrine very closely. And as a result, particularly for our investment strategy, we’re not going to talk about our funds individually. But in the sphere of managing a family of Catholic compliant mutual funds, we had an anchor to something, because among Christianity, there’s a wide different range of beliefs and acceptances among the different groups of Christians. But the Catholic Church, still 51 million people in the US claim connection to the Catholic faith. It’s in varying degrees, but within that church. And Andrew knows this better than I. There’s even a wide array of attitudes and beliefs, even among those that are supposedly in the more narrow defined Catholic faith. So as a result, we had an anchor to something, because the last thing I could do was try to explain, you know, well, we’ll do this for this here. What we believe this here that’s different. So we essentially work and we’ve worked very closely with Catholic view to take the teachings of the bishops and define them into investment rules, into a usable, screenable methodology to which to invest. But in a nutshell, and and Andrew certainly could speak more to this in broad terms, things to do with abortion, contraceptives, embryonic stem cell research, human cloning, weapons of mass destruction, things of like cluster bombs and landmines, things of that nature. Pornography doesn’t really come in. There’s not many opportunities to invest in pornography in the publicly traded market. So that really doesn’t weigh in. And then for profit health care that really pays for any of the others, I would say from a practical matter. And I’ll end on this hand it to Andrew, is a practical matter. The things that we run into most often, whether we’re managing the Knights of Columbus assets or the mutual fund assets, are things to do with abortive action and contraceptives and an embryonic stem as it relates to biotechnology. Those are the real sort of places we can delve into this more as we chat today. But I would say those are the areas where you run into the most things that you have to review. So, Andrew, I’d turn it over to you for your view on that.

Andrew Abela: Thank you Tony. Yes, everything Tony said. And in terms of what’s driving our interest now, about 20 some years ago, the Conference of Bishops, which is the group that brings all of the Catholic bishops in the United States together, published their kind of guidelines on faith based investing, and then they updated those in 2021. The first set of guidelines was mainly about excluding the kinds of stocks that Tony was just talking about this time around this in 21, they also asked the faithful to not just exclude stocks that would be compromising, but also to exercise your votes and to engage with management to try to kind of move people in the right direction. And so there’s a big conversation now about how to do that. So Tony and I have been working together with a few other asset managers to figure out the best way to do that, the most practical way to do that, and that is the state of the art. I would say at this point in the Catholic investing world.

Tony Minopoli: Andrew would it be worth, maybe if both of us took a second? And the most recent white paper, the main summum bonum white paper that came out for the […] So John, one of the […] within the Vatican, wrote a paper, and I had forgotten all the Latin I learned when I was in Jesuit prep school. But then summum bonum, which translates to the good measure, was a paper that came from the […] of Science within the Vatican, and really took this notion of investing in a way that is not detrimental to the environment, investing in a way that is helpful to the less fortunate. Also engaging it’s not just about negative screening, and that is a lot of the work that Andrew is mentioned, that we’re teaming up together with some other really fine professionals is how best you engage, you know, the proxy voting, which any shareholder can think about. But do you do a, you know, a shotgun approach of just carpet bombing letters to all these CEOs, or do you really try to get engaged in meaningful engagement with individual companies? I think most of the people involved at that conference and involved in this thought process are not so naive is to think that they’re going to move publicly traded companies into the realm of acting like good Christians, but if we could just get them to be neutral. Right. Sell your product, sell your service. But don’t be antithetical to Christianity. From my corner, I think that would be a win. And there’s a lot of companies that go a lot further and are espousing things that are sort of antithetical to Christianity. So this was interesting because to my knowledge and Andrew, please correct me. This was the first time the Vatican was as sort of forceful on this topic by issuing the main summum bonum and white paper. So just another thought to add into the conversation, John.

John Coleman: Yeah. And, you know, there’s a parallel conversation happening in the faith driven investor movement that we’re most familiar with that’s exemplified by this podcast. And people frame it a couple of different ways. And then, Andrew, maybe you could react to some of this one. It’s a very simple framework that a lot of folks use, which is avoid, embrace, engage, avoid being more negative screening, embrace means positive screening or leaning into certain thematic things, which Tony might even be environmental concerns like you just highlighted. And engage means even where something’s not explicitly faith forward or positively screened. Since you have a voice as a shareholder in that company, how do you encourage positive movements in that company? Something we’ve seen lobby for quite a lot lately, for example, or adoption benefits in the midst of the noise around abortion as a topic, you know, how do we encourage companies to include adopt adoption benefits in their health care? Another framework we’ve leaned into a bit, trying to span both public and private markets is exactly what you highlighted. You’ve got negative screening. You’ve got positive screening, again, where you do thematic engagement according to something you think is redemptive, right? A redemptive purpose either in public or private markets. The third we talk about often is cultural formation. So as private equity investors or venture investors, we often have an opportunity, not just invest thematically, but to lean into the actual culture and operations of business, to shape it in a way that’s more faith aligned, which could include the supply chain, making sure that that’s properly accounted for and handled appropriately, including chaplaincy in the company or organization, employee resource groups that are religious family friendly policies like maternity and paternity leave, adoption benefits. But you get to shape a culture in a way that encourages human flourishing. And then we’ll often talk about all of those can be done with a high return. But there is this concessionary impact space right where you may choose to engage in things like Microlending or, we’ve seen charter school financing, for example, in the US, where you may trade off some return in order to engage in something you find particularly redemptive. So it sounds like the Catholic Church is having a debate right now about the various ways you can positively lean into faith and investing. That’s very similar to the one that we’re seeing carried out more broadly in Christianity. But, Andrew, I don’t know if you’re seeing some of the same things that we’re talking about now in the research that you’re doing.

Andrew Abela: Yeah, there’s a lot of parallels. And in fact, the parallels are such that I’m so glad we’re having this conversation, right. Because we just need to work together more. What we have heard from, CEOs and executives is it’s helpful to them to receive the countervailing pressure from our side. So, as Tony said, even if we just get folks to being neutral on the cultural issues, that’s a big win, because too many corporations have been advocates for a very sort of secularists kind of anti-life perspective. And so kind of pushing back against that. And the more we can be kind of working together, I think that really helps. The, employee resource group movement has become really strong. We’re happy to host every summer since its initial launch about five years ago, the Religious Freedom and Business Conference, which is the annual gathering of all the leaders of the ERGs that are focused on religious liberty. And so it’s like a very ecumenical gathering, not just all flavors of Christians, but also Muslims and Hindus and so on, just arguing that corporations need to make space for people of faith in a corporation. Which I think is a very positive move. I know that, John, you and I have had this conversation already about the role of virtue in the workplace, a very Christian idea that is nevertheless rooted in Aristotelian philosophy and so accessible to pretty much any thinking person, you know. So this is another area that we want to encourage and help, because I think it’s not just our society, but our corporations are realizing the consequences of living in a post-Christian world where things we used to be able to take for granted, like basic human decency, honesty, and so on just seem to be eroding and need to be those back. So I think this is an opportunity for people of faith to say, hey, we have some good ideas here to share.

John Coleman: So would you say a bit more, Andrew? And then I’m going to come back to you, Tony, about this concept of virtues, because we also have the faith driven entrepreneur organization that we work with. And it’s we talked about we have a very strong belief that for the performance of a company, culture is the greatest competitive advantage in business, that top performing cultures will regularly outcompete others in the marketplace, something that’s been affirmed by research from McKinsey and company, from the London Business School and others. And we think that this idea of virtues and values in a business are essential to that culture. Say more about what you mean by virtues and why that’s different than values in a business.

Andrew Abela: Yeah. So we make a big distinction between values and virtues. So many businesses talk about their corporate values, but values are just talking the talk. Whereas virtues are walking the walk. The virtue is the action or particularly the habits specifically. So you could value honesty, for example. But to have honesty as a virtue means you’re in the habit of always acting with honesty, always speaking the truth. To have self discipline as a value is one thing, but to actually be in the habit of acting with self-discipline is another thing entirely. I remember so I was last at McKinsey 25 years ago, so it’s been a while. But even back then we were talking about the power of corporate culture as a competitive advantage. You could imagine a corporation’s, we often referred to it when we were talking to our students, the set of human virtues as the human operating system. Right? Particularly the four big ones, the cardinal virtues. So practical wisdom or prudence, justice, fortitude or courage and temperance or self-discipline, those four together make up, if you will, a sort of a human operating system. And just like the operating system on your iPhone, if you don’t updated regularly, things start to slow down or not work or crash, you know, same with human beings, same with a corporate culture. If a corporate culture has a particular vice or defect, and I say a lack of honesty or a lack of justice, then that’s going to undermine pretty much everything that the corporation tries to do. And the execution of your strategy could be terrific, but the execution is not going to be as effective because you’re missing an essential part of human flourishing.

John Coleman: I love the way y’all are approaching that in the intellectual history. For nerd like me, dating back to Aristotle and the discussion of habits and virtues, and obviously to the Israelites before that, I think it’s so incredibly rich. Tony, I want to dig into the Knights a little bit more, if you don’t mind. One, I would love for you to just tell people who are the Knights of Columbus for those who aren’t Catholic and what’s the history? And then maybe secondly, dovetail into what does this look like in a portfolio as large as yours? How do you just think about tactically bringing this in to the work you’re doing in asset management?

Tony Minopoli: Sure. So without reading all the pages of history, the Knights of Columbus was founded right here in New Haven, Connecticut, in 1882 by, Blessed Michael McGivney. In our world, in the Catholic world, blessed means he’s one miracle on his way to his second miracle of being canonized a saint. And on another podcast, we’ll talk about those. But father McGivney started this because at the time, there were a lot of Catholic men in the area that were building a lot of the infrastructure and a lot of blue collar folks that were dying and leaving widows and orphans. And as a man of action, as a young man in his 30s, he thought he would create this organization that started off literally as a mutual benefit society. And we became what you would call an actuarially based life insurance company, probably around 1900 and 1901. So we now boast over 2 million members worldwide. We’re the largest Catholic lay organization in the world. We have about 1.4 million members in the US. It’s our biggest jurisdiction and we’re basically men of service. So the thought processes is that we work in our local communities to provide charity. In a typical year from the parent, we will donate about $40 million to a variety of charities, our subsidiary councils. We have 10,000 councils here in the United States, but our subsidiary councils collectively donate about 140 million. So across the order, it’s about $180 million of actual dollars pre-COVID. And now we’re working back up to it John. We were donating as a fraternity north of 70,000,000 hours of community service. So we’re now knights of action, I would say as well. So I’m very proud to have been a knight since 1994. I joined the company in 05, so I didn’t become a knight for the expediency of a job, but I was very swayed by the work that we do. The general account for the Knights of Columbus on a market value basis, about a $27 billion portfolio. Right outside of my office is our bond trading floor. We manage about $25 billion of fixed income. We have our equity team up in Boston managing north of a billion in equities. And we have followed the USCCB teachings for longer than I’ve been here. One of the things I brought to the Knights when I was an advisor, I served when I was in evaluation Associates. The Knights were a client, which is how I ended up getting here. But one of the things I brought was to bring a bit more rigor to how we screen company. So we brought in a third party to help us decipher the USCCB teachings and to develop screen lists. We now work with a professor, Professor John Grabowski from Catholic You, who’s on retainer to the Knights. Where else can you have a moral theologian and your team when you’re investing? But at the Knights of Columbus. So we really do incorporate what John helps us to do. Again, he’s not writing Catholic Doctrine, but our screening advisor is a consult, and they’re not Catholic, but they’re they have a very good screening program. So John sometimes serves as an umpire calling balls and strikes. If we determine that, hey, this company actually shouldn’t be screened out, John will help evaluate it. Between us, the screening agent and John will determine what the right move is. As I said earlier, you know, John, the challenge, if it is one, it’s really in biotech and health care that we find the most in. Typically, it’s a big pharma company that may have had an abortive fashion or contraceptive. Then they divested the drug. Many big pharmaceutical companies find the most efficient way to develop a pipeline is to go acquire a smaller company. So then they acquire a smaller company in their drug pipeline. And when you go down the list, you may find a they have a drug that’s now out of bounds. So out they go. And we go through the screening rigorously every 90 days. So as I tell our board, whether it’s for the general account of the insurance company or our shareholders of our mutual funds, you’re never more than 90 days for scrubbing the portfolio. And in equities it’s easy, you know, if it’s a big cap company, you can move out of it quickly. You know, if it’s a middle sized bond, you know, post a financial crisis. Wall Street doesn’t have proprietary trading desks anymore. It can take you a little bit longer to divest. We try to keep a foot in both camps being critically adherent to the faith. But also, you know, I guess in a doctor’s sense, trying to do no harm to our shareholders. So we’ll develop a plan to move that security out. It’s never taken more than a few weeks, but, you know, you develop a divestiture plan. I have to say, in 18 years of being here 18.5 years now, it’s never caused a problem to where we could not evaluate another name or a different way of investing or a different company to purchased. And one of the things I’m very happy about is that we’ve been able to compete in the return space, but while also adhering to the Catholic teaching. Today, as I say to our board, all the way we are walking the walk, but we’re living proof that you can do well and you can do good all at the same time. So maybe it takes a little bit longer, but you eventually get there. We’re very, very proud of that.

John Coleman: Yeah, I love to hear that, Tony. And we tend to have a firm belief in that. And I want to let you in on this as well, that when you’re behaving in a way that we believed in the truth of our faith, and we believe that it’s in touch with something really important about human nature and what creates human flourishing. And then if you’re leading companies in alignment with that, that those companies can actually perform, that they can succeed because they’re in touch with something deeply true about people, about the people that work within a company, about those who purchase their products and services that allow them to perform even greater than those who are anchored in some sort of truth or who are detached from that. But, Andrew, I think I cut you off. You were going to jump in.

Andrew Abela: Not at all. So you’ve heard the old joke about the professors who argue. Yes, that may work in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory. You know, that used to be the argument about faith based investing, right? That portfolio theory says if you’re going to exclude a bunch of stocks, then your returns are necessarily going to have to be lower. You’re both experience [….] that’s that’s not true. And I’m a little hesitant because we’re not done with the research yet. But we’ve been working through a study looking at portfolio returns of faith based portfolio versus non and over extended period of time. And I’m finding that in theory, yes, it does work that you can be selective and screen out certain stocks and still not cost anything in terms of returns. Which sort of makes sense. There’s a there’s a beautiful line in the letter of Pope Leo the 13th from 1887. We remember him fondly because he was the founder of Catholic University. So. He wrote when Christian virtue is observed. That leads to a measure of prosperity, in a sense, because we’re behaving in the way God intended. So of course things should work out right. So it’s not a terrible shock, but it’s good to say to the average Christian investor, you don’t have to take a big hit, or you don’t have to take any hit on your returns. To be a faith based investor. Now, you might want to, as you pointed out, because there are certain sectors that you might. But now that becomes part of your charitable giving in a sense, right. By taking out a reduced return. But that’s a that’s a particular deliberate choice.

John Coleman: Yeah. We always think of the uses of capital, not literally black and white, but on a spectrum between pure philanthropy and high return investing. And as long as you’re conscious of where you’re playing there, it’s a conscious decision and you’re behaving in a way that’s aligned with the wishes of those whose capital you’re stewarding. It’s open, that spectrum is open, and you can really just Tony, as you would play in a risk return spectrum in fixed income to equities, to private equity. You can kind of choose at what point on that spectrum between philanthropy and return to play. One topic that we haven’t explicitly addressed, I’d be so curious to get your feedback on is ESG, and a question that we get frequently, if you’re willing to address it, is, is ESG aligned with faith driven investing or where are they align and where are they different? And so I’d be curious, as you all have reflected on specifically Catholic, faith based or faith driven investing and the points of similarity or difference with ESG? Just how do you view those intersections right now and whether that’s an active discussion or not for y’all, or you just have your own approach that’s completely different from that, and it’s not really a topic of discussion.

Tony Minopoli: I’ll kick off just how we thought about it particularly, you know, the environmental concerns I think are aligned, particularly with the current pope. Pope Francis is very concerned about the environment and has spoken extensively about it. Not to say that past popes weren’t concerned about the environment, but Pope Francis has written and spoken about it extensively. Some of the things that fall under the s are not necessarily aligned with the Catholic faith, so it’s a little difficult to align purely with them. And on the governance side, in many cases, a lot of the things that come up under governance, you know, single type of shared class, making sure things are disclosed properly. Those, I think are just common sense investment themes. But broadly, the way that we think about ESG, our first priority is Catholic social teaching. We need to be compliant there. ESG in the capital market sense. You need to understand how a company is perceived. So all of our securities, right, whether it’s debt or equity, we do think about the ESG factors. And greatest example as an energy company, just because an energy company is an energy company, it doesn’t mean it’s necessarily you can’t touch it. Because if you think about a company that manages their industrial or environmental impact well and follows all the governance rules, they may score poorly, but they may actually be a solid investment. So in broad terms, we will not invest in something because it scores high in ESG. We will not avoid something purely because it ranks low on ESG factors. But as a prudent investment manager, it’s incumbent upon me and my team that we understand the context of how a company is perceived with the real I, John. Is that company going to have an ability, for example, to tap the capital markets? Will they can they raise capital or have they violated environmental regulations in so many states that now their management is going to be tied up in lawsuits. And, and I always it’s a tired and old example, but I use it all the time and not to pick on GE. But when GE got in trouble all those many years ago for the PCBs in the Hudson River in New York, it took them forever between law, the lawyers and regulators and fines and then shareholder lawsuits. So management was management able to truly execute on their management strategy? No, they were distracted. So that’s we want to understand the context of ESG in a company. Because again, somebody that follows the right way, they’re going to be able to execute their management strategy. And we think that will lead to a better investment outcome. But for us, Catholic social teaching outtrump ESG. Andrew.

Andrew Abela: Yeah, couldn’t agree more. We have vigorous debates both within our school and with colleagues outside Catholic and other Christian, about the purpose of a business. The classic debate between sort of stockholder stakeholder. This gets a little more abstract. You know, professors like to talk about these. Abstract. Okay. So it’s what we do, you know, we bring it back to practice. And my perception is that we went from one extreme to another, where in the 80s and the 90s, we were all talking about profit maximization as the o, the sole goal. You know, it’s kind of like a, you know, an extreme form of Milton Friedman, kind of that the purpose of this is to maximize. Profits and nothing else. You know, he did go on to say, but to stay within the norms and, you know, and rules and so on. People forget that part. And ESG in some sense has gone to the other extreme where, you know, set aside the fact that, you know, one reading group can agree with another about what exactly ESG is, you know, said so totally agree with Tony, is you don’t abandon a stock just because it’s rated low, or you don’t buy it because it’s rated high, because those ratings can often be close to meaningless. But with the reason we think Catholic social teaching is so helpful is you’re looking at the good of a business. And is that not limited solely to profitability? But it doesn’t exclude profitability in the way some kind of ESG kind of perspectives take. So if you asked us kind of [….] what is the purpose of a business, we would say the purpose of a business is to do some good for some group of people and to do it profitably because you’re not doing it profitably. You’re just not a business. You’re yet another organization that has to be funded philanthropically or through taxation. Right? So business is the only self-sustaining, self-funding enterprise. And so to do that, you have to basically have a clear vision of the good that you’re doing, and then you have to do that with virtue to do that virtuously. And if you follow through on that, all the evidence is that you would be very profitable, successful. And so you would satisfy both the shareholder and the stakeholders is that’s kind of that’s the win win aspiration. I think that we should all have, instead of pitting kind of social justice versus profitability, you know, makes one good and one bad. No, those things don’t have to be in opposition.

John Coleman: Yeah, I think I love what you’re saying there, Andrew, because I do think there’s a way in which the free enterprise system, upon which capital markets rests or upon which investment rests, actually does contain kernels that can promote human flourishing. Obviously, it can be used for bad, it can be used for good. But actually embracing the right principles combined with that system can help to unleash human flourishing, which is one of the reasons we’ve seen this explosion in, people escaping poverty, for example, around the we’ve seen an explosion in the ability of people to escape their circumstances if they’re born into poor circumstances, economic mobility, the ability to pursue their own talents and merits. And so we think that certainly the system can and often is used to promote human flourishing, but it also has to exist within a set of values or virtues, as you would say, that allow it to function properly. And with regards to investments around here at FDI, we often say all investing is impact investing. Every dollar you put to work has an impact on the world for positive or negative. The only question is what kind of impact will it have? And I think the pushback against ESG has been a good thing, and that there are many valid criticisms from both the right and the left. And we don’t have to get into those. But it’s also forced, I think, Christians to say, what is our distinctive set of values that we want to pursue? What is it unique about the Christian faith that we want to see expressed in investment capital? And how can we now define something that’s distinctively Christian faith aligned, rather than simply falling in line with framework? That to your point, Tony has some similarities, but some differences, I think, from what dominant Christian doctrine, would be. I have a question. It may be on our listeners minds because, I’m a Protestant. We are notoriously hard to organize, I would say, as it’s a set of church denominations, you both had mentioned that you’re working with various denominations or orders within the Catholic Church to forward thinking about what this looks like. Could you explain to us what is collaboration look like within the church, across the various pools of assets that you all have? And how does that work? I mean, you’re both in the center of it. What does that look like for y’all?

Tony Minopoli: Andrew, please kick this off. But, John, I’ll just say, if you can visualize herding cats and wild cats, that’s sort of the start of it.

Andrew Abela: Tony is exactly right. Because here’s this is just a descriptive statement. Yeah. So the Conference of Bishops guidelines, which I mentioned before for faith based investing, faith driven investing, apply to the funds of the conference itself. Now. The conference is made up of the 200 and some bishops of the United States. Each has his own diocese. Many of them have their own foundations which invest their own association. The conference’s rules don’t apply to the to the bishops own, foundations. They are purely voluntary. So some bishops well, as a matter of course they will follow those others would say we have a better way to do it. We’ll do it differently. So even among the brother bishops themselves, there are some differences. But I say that purely descriptively, to say that there is coordination, but it’s not monolithic, you know, and in some sense, I think I would rather have it that way than have a top down. Usually I’ll do it this way, because when it’s that dictatorial, you can make some really, really big mistakes, right? Whereas when it’s more distributed in this way, if you make mistakes, they tend to be a bit more localized, you know? So I think there’s room for more collaboration, not just among Catholics but among all Christians, you know, because goodness knows the forces of secularism tend to sometimes seem to be really coordinated. And so if we’re going to provide any kind of countervailing power, but I think the best way to do that is through communication, kind of sharing of ideas, kinds of meetings. John, that you’ve organized, that we’ve organized, that the Knights that Tony, you participated in, in several of ours. Right. The more kind of discussion we have, the more aligned we can become around the same vision. It’s kind of how I would put it.

Tony Minopoli: The few things that I mean, one of the joys working with these disparities is it brought me into Andrew’s orbit, and the Knights have had a close relationship with Catholic University forever, but it’s allowed me to collaborate with Andrew. Andrew has become a friend. We chat about these kinds of things all the time. We’ve done. We’ve done a lot of work together, and there’s a lot more work that we’re planning on doing together. But Andrew makes a very key point that even across the various Christian denominations, the commonality of whether it’s an Episcopalian Catholicism or the various different parts of Christianity, of the Protestants, there’s a lot more similarity than there is difference. And if we leave the differences to the side, the core things matter, right? The things on life, the things on family. So I always joke, I have a young man, he’s not so young anymore because I’m not so young anymore. But he used to work for me. And when I was organizing the Knights of Columbus mutual funds, he and I were chatting, and he’s an Orthodox Jew. And he said to me, you were talking about the diocesan structure. And he said, if we ever had that structure in the Jewish faith, we would have raised $10 billion before you even open the door. And it struck me, because certainly as Catholics and I’m going to take the rest of my Christian brothers with me in the canoe, we never act in concert and imagine the change that we could forge if we actually did. Because again, though, there are differences in the faith denominations. Man, the similarity is a heck of a lot stronger than the differences. And I’m hopeful. And Andrew is right. I think the fact that there’s room for interpretation may bring more people into thinking about faith based investing, because it isn’t this dogmatic thou shalt do this and thou shalt not do that. But it allowed for us to say, you know what? We’re going to anchor to the central tenants of the bishops. We’re going to work with those clients. We have clients with separate accounts that’ll be a bit nuanced. And as my former pastor said, Tony, it’s a very large church with many different people in it. And I think when you move beyond Catholicism into Christianity as a whole, man, it’s an even bigger tent with a lot of very disparate, disparate opinions. But we can do better together.

John Coleman: Amen. I couldn’t agree more. And we’ve often had this discussion that man, the people who believe deeply in the Christian faith, we share so many of the same commitments. Right? I mean, we really believe in the dignity of all human being. We believe that every person on earth is created in the image of a loving God, and that everything that we build should be oriented towards helping those folks connect with their creator, live out their human dignity, really pursue something that can bring them well, having purpose and flourishing. And there’s really a crisis for that in the world today, right? If you look around the world, people are struggling, they’re unhappy, that are lonely, that they’re disconnected from that sense of purpose. And we have an opportunity as investors and business leaders every day to either help bring them closer to their creator and to understanding their own dignity and purpose or further away from it. And if we could just work together in concert more, to try and forward that shared vision, I think it could be really powerful as we wrap today, because that was such an inspiring call from both of you. I would love to just maybe ask a personal question, which is obviously, both of you are men of deep faith. You’ve been motivated by your faith, even in your careers, what you’ve pursued. Maybe just each of you individually. Tell me, what is it in your personal faith life that keeps you motivated about this, that keeps calling you into your profession, that you’d want to share with others.

Tony Minopoli: Quickly for me, John, my my younger brother has special needs, and he is in. I have to stop at my parents. We still have my mom and dad. They’re 85 and 83, and I have to stop at my dad’s house to sign a piece of paper for an investment that he’s making, and I’ll go in there this evening to go see my parents and have my dad sign this paper. And my little brother is literally the living, breathing, walking embodiment of Christ’s unconditional love. He’ll want to know, how did my day go? He wants to know that you’re okay. If he met you, John, chances are you probably give you a hug. And secondly, he’d want to know how your day went. Is everything okay? And watching the Knights of Columbus, its Special Olympics with him when he was a little boy is what motivated me to say. There’s something to this faith piece that needs to be part of my life. And when I got to work at the Knights of Columbus at the time, I had two competing offers one from a mega, mega large hedge fund that will go unnamed, and the Knights of Columbus. From an economic standpoint, I made probably the least wise decision of of a guy pursuing a financial career, but knowing that the money that I helped generate allows Patrick Kelly, our Supreme Knight, for wheelchairs, for coats, for kids, for food, for families, for disaster relief, and a very good friend of mine that works at a big Wall Street firm, said, it must be nice going to work someplace every day where the purpose for why you make money is just not to make someone that’s wealthy, wealthier, and people that know me well know how important my Catholic faith is and what a part of my identity is. And frankly, to come to a place where we have a chapel on the fourth floor and I can go to mass when you know it’s available, I can go down there and spend a few minutes in quiet, contemplate a prayer. It means an immense amount. And, and to be able to live my faith in my profession and, and know the good that comes from the work that the Knights do, it pretty much makes it makes it a life worth living. And I got to grow with it for, for many years. And my first job was working for the Knights of Columbus and Council 16 at their duckpin bowling alley when I was a ten year old as a pin setter, and hopefully my last job as CIO of the Knights of Columbus. The second job paid better than the first. But, I’ve had an involvement with the Knights of Columbus for for a long, long time Andrew.

Andrew Abela: That it’s hard to top. But whoever says that Catholics can’t share about their spiritual life, you just proved them wrong, Tony, so I do. So mine comes to a different place. I as a teenager, I fell away from the church, was a practical kind of atheist and went through some kind of dark and meaningless times. You know, it just kind of reached a point where I was very successful. I as you mentioned, I started my career at Procter and Gamble. I was at the time the youngest brand manager worldwide at Procter and Gamble. I thought I had the world ahead of me. I was a McKinsey, traveling around the world, working for them in Russia, just after Russia opened up, when when we all thought that it was going to become a great democracy and so on. And then a certain point, I just realized the emptiness of it all and was called back and kind of gave my life to Christ, came back into the church. And that was almost 30 years ago. And life just keeps getting better each year as I get closer to him, you know, everything makes more sense, everything works out better, and you just start to realize that this is the way we’re supposed to live, you know? So 11 years ago, I had a dream come true, and the university asked me to start a business school. And I’d had a vision of what? What would it be like to have a business school that was from the very ground up, focused on teaching and doing research about what does it mean to be a Christian in business? And that’s what we’ve been doing for now, 11 years. We’re 700 students and growing. We’ve been actually double digit growth the last four years, which is not rare in higher education, you know, nowadays. And that’s just been a real treat. And so just being able to work with folks like Tony and others and then to kind of bring them to the younger people and say here, this is what you’re striving for, is you want to go out and serve Christ in the world of business. You know, it’s been a real gift to me, I have to say. Yeah.

John Coleman: Well, gentlemen, that was an inspiring way to end Andrew Abela of Catholic University. Tony Minopoli of the Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors. We’re really grateful for you guys for being on the podcast, for the work that you’re doing every day on behalf of our shared faith. And, just really encouraged by this conversation and hopeful to see what’s next. Thank you so much for joining the Faith Driven Investor podcast today.